Group 1 - The "Big Beautiful" bill, pushed by President Trump, has been passed, but Tesla CEO Elon Musk continues to oppose it, indicating potential for further conflict between them [1][3] - The final version of the bill raises the U.S. federal debt ceiling by $5 trillion, exceeding the previous House version's increase of $4 trillion, and makes tax cuts from Trump's 2017 term permanent [1][2] Group 2 - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that the final version of the "Big Beautiful" bill could increase the U.S. government's budget deficit by $3.4 trillion over the next decade, with total debt potentially rising to $36.2 trillion [2] - The bill is expected to severely impact Tesla's carbon credit revenue by eliminating key rules for carbon emissions trading and setting fines for fuel economy standards to zero, reducing the incentive for traditional automakers to purchase Tesla's carbon credits [5] - In the previous year, Tesla's carbon credit revenue reached $2.8 billion, accounting for 39% of its net profit, with a significant portion coming from the U.S. market [5]

值得注意的是，该法案将企业平均燃油经济性标准（Cafe）的罚款设定为零，实际上取消了传统汽车制 造商购买特斯拉碳排放积分的动力。今年第一季度，特斯拉碳积分销售收入达5.95亿美元，超过其4.09 亿美元的净收入，若无该项收入，则特斯拉将陷入亏损。 除了碳积分收入之外，特斯拉的其他业务也受到"大漂亮法案"的冲击，包括电池制造、超级充电站网 络、太阳能屋顶等业务几乎都将失去重要的联邦支持或税收减免。 一位特斯拉前高管表示："马斯克终于意识到了这一点，但为时已晚。"分析指出，这场升级的争斗将共 和党议员夹在美国总统和世界首富之间，也暴露了马斯克对特朗普政策影响的预判失误。 碳积分收入成特斯拉利润支柱 马斯克捐献超过2.5亿美元助力特朗普当选，如今却面临可能令特斯拉损失数十亿美元的政策反噬。特 朗普的"大漂亮法案"将严重削弱美国碳排放积分交易体系，而这一体系对特斯拉的盈利能力至关重要。 7月4日，据报道，特朗普的"大漂亮法案"将废除允许电动汽车制造商出售数十亿美元碳排放积分的关键 规则。该法案已在周四获得国会最终通过，将送交总统签署。据华尔街见闻文章提及，尽管民主党强力 阻击，共和党仍赶在7月4日截止期前通过了法案， ...