2025，是秩序崩坏之年，也是规则重塑元年。 这一年，特朗普挥舞"对等关税"大棒，撕裂战后贸易体系；中东战火骤然升级，美以直接出手打击伊朗核设施；俄乌走向谈判桌，却在领土与安 全边界上反复拉锯。美国财政在"大漂亮法案"下全面扩张，联邦政府关门刷新历史纪录，国家机器在党争中频频熄火。 同样深刻的变化发生在货币层面：美联储在政治压力下加速降息，日本央行却逆势重启加息，全球主要央行首次出现方向性的制度分裂。 所有裂痕，最终都映射到市场之上——黄金突破4500美元，迎来四十年来最狂热的一轮牛市；美元指数跌向二十年来最差年度表现；而风险资产 学会了一件事：把制度失灵本身，当成可被定价的背景噪音。 每一次冲击，都曾让全球市场短暂窒息。而当冲击反复出现，它就不再是意外，而是新常态。2026年，世界将在"混乱已成确定性"的现实中，继 续摸索新的平衡与规则。唯一可以确定的是：动荡本身，已经成为这个时代最稳定的特征。 特朗普关税大棒，重创全球贸易秩序 2025年，特朗普政府推行的 "对等关税" 政策掀起全球贸易震荡，关税从临时性贸易救济手段蜕变为常态化博弈工具，深刻冲击了战后形成的多边 贸易体系。 综合新华社、央视新闻报道，年初 ...

Core Viewpoint - Elon Musk's significant donation of over $250 million to support Donald Trump's election is now facing backlash as Trump's "Big Beautiful Bill" threatens to cost Tesla billions due to changes in carbon credit trading policies [1][2]. Group 1: Impact of Trump's Legislation - Trump's "Big Beautiful Bill" aims to eliminate key rules that allow electric vehicle manufacturers to sell billions in carbon credits, which are crucial for Tesla's profitability [1]. - The bill has passed Congress and is set to be signed by Trump, despite strong opposition from Democrats [1]. - The new legislation sets fines for corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) standards to zero, removing the incentive for traditional automakers to purchase Tesla's carbon credits [1][3]. Group 2: Financial Implications for Tesla - In Q1, Tesla's carbon credit sales generated $595 million, surpassing its net income of $409 million; without this revenue, Tesla would face losses [1][3]. - Tesla's projected revenue from carbon credits for 2024 is $2.8 billion, a significant increase from $1.8 billion in 2023, accounting for 39% of its annual net profit of $7.1 billion [3]. - The company has accumulated over $11 billion in revenue from carbon credit sales since 2015, with approximately 75% of this income coming from the U.S. market [3]. Group 3: Broader Business Challenges - Other Tesla operations, including battery manufacturing, its network of 2,600 U.S. Supercharger stations, solar roofs, and energy storage solutions, will also lose critical federal support or tax incentives due to the new legislation [4]. - The $7,500 federal tax credit for specific electric vehicle purchases and leases will be eliminated by the end of September, further impacting sales [4]. - Trump's unpredictable tariff policies may disrupt Tesla's supply chain and access to essential materials, compounding the challenges faced by the company [4]. Group 4: Musk's Response and Industry Reactions - Musk has publicly criticized the bill as "odious" and threatened political donations against supporters of the legislation, but his response appears limited [5]. - Trump has countered Musk's criticisms, suggesting that without subsidies, Musk might have to shut down operations and return to South Africa [5]. - A former Tesla executive noted that the policy changes represent a cumulative negative impact on Tesla's profitability, indicating that Musk's realization of the situation may have come too late [5].