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碳酸锂日评:宽幅震荡-20251112
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-11-12 03:21
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The current supply and demand are both strong. The news of the resumption of lithium mines in Jiangxi is inconsistent. The production of lithium carbonate remains at a high level. High prices have increased the wait - and - see sentiment among downstream players, resulting in light trading in the spot market. However, there is an expectation of weakening in power demand, and the game between long and short positions has intensified. It is expected that lithium prices will fluctuate widely. Production enterprises can conduct sell - hedging at high prices, and speculators can try short positions with light positions after the upward trend is blocked [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Lithium Carbonate Futures and Spot Market Data - **Futures Contracts**: On November 11, 2025, the closing prices of near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, consecutive - three contracts and other contracts of lithium carbonate futures showed different changes compared to the previous day. For example, the near - month contract closed at 84,620 yuan/ton (+120), and the consecutive - one contract closed at 86,340 yuan/ton (-780) [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of lithium carbonate futures was 902,490 lots (-84,079), and the open interest of the active contract was 526,493 lots (-7,990) [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory was 28,099 tons (+608), and the SMM total lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 3,405 tons compared to the previous week [1]. - **Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts and the basis also showed changes. For example, the near - month - consecutive - one spread was - 2,620 yuan/ton (+900), and the basis (SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price - lithium carbonate active contract closing price) was - 4,240 yuan/ton (+2,250) [1]. 3.2 Lithium - Related Raw Material Prices - **Lithium Ore**: The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 975 US dollars/ton, and the average prices of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) and other lithium ores also increased to varying degrees [1]. - **Lithium Compounds**: The average prices of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%/domestic), industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%/domestic), and other lithium compounds increased, while the price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 1,250 yuan/ton [1]. 3.3 Industry News - In October, the export volume of Brazilian spodumene concentrate decreased by 85% month - on - month compared to September, mainly because the largest spodumene producer in the country, Sigma Lithium, did not export during this period. However, the export volume increased by about 54% year - on - year. Sigma Lithium sold a record 58,900 tons in September to clear inventory but did not export in October [1]. 3.4 Supply and Demand Situation - **Supply**: Last week, the production of lithium carbonate increased, and the production of lithium carbonate from various raw materials also increased [1]. - **Demand**: Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased. In November, the planned production of lithium carbonate increased, while that of lithium manganate decreased. The production of power batteries increased last week. In terms of terminal demand, the growth rate of new - energy vehicle production and sales in October slowed down month - on - month and year - on - year, 3C shipments were average, and the planned production of energy - storage batteries in November increased [1].
碳酸锂日评:宽幅震荡-20251105
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-11-05 02:57
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core View of the Report - On November 4, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated downward. The spot market remained bearish, and the basis changed from a discount to a premium. Currently, both supply and demand are strong. The news of the resumption of production of lithium mines in Jiangxi is inconsistent, but the production of lithium carbonate remains high. High prices have increased the wait - and - see sentiment among downstream players. The inflection point may be approaching. If the weakening of demand is verified, there is still room for the price to fall. It is expected that the lithium price will fluctuate widely. The recommended trading strategy is to hold short positions and partially take profits after the downward trend stabilizes [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Data Futures Price and Trading Volume - On November 4, 2025, the closing prices of lithium carbonate futures contracts decreased compared with the previous day. For example, the closing price of the near - month contract was 77,160 yuan/ton (-3,460 yuan/ton), and the closing price of the active contract was 78,560 yuan/ton (-3,720 yuan/ton). The trading volume of the active contract was 975,978 hands (+389,310 hands), and the open interest was 457,374 hands (-67,810 hands) [1] Inventory and Basis - The inventory on November 4, 2025, was 26,490 tons (-800 tons). The basis (SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price - lithium carbonate active contract closing price) changed from - 1,280 yuan/ton on November 3 to 2,340 yuan/ton on November 4, an increase of 3,620 yuan/ton [1] Raw Material Prices - On November 4, 2025, the average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 931 US dollars/ton (-10 US dollars/ton), and the average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) was 1,315 yuan/ton (-35 yuan/ton) [1] Downstream Product Prices and Output - The prices of some downstream products such as lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and electrolyte changed. In terms of output, last week, the output of lithium iron phosphate increased, the output of ternary materials increased, and the output of power batteries increased. In November, the production schedule of cobalt - lithium increased, and the production schedule of manganese - lithium decreased [1] Terminal Market Conditions - In October, the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales slowed down; the 3C shipments were average; the production schedule of energy - storage batteries increased in November [1] Supply - related News - The lithium spodumene concentrate of the Bougouni lithium project of Kodal Minerals has been shipped to the port of San Pedro, Côte d'Ivoire, with a cumulative shipment of over 10,000 tons, and the shipment progress meets market expectations [1]
碳酸锂日评:波动仍大,持仓注意保护-20250829
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-08-29 03:33
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The lithium carbonate market is still highly volatile. Short - term supply and demand are both strong, with high lithium carbonate production, rising downstream demand, and social inventory depletion. The fundamentals have little change in the short term, and the market is easily affected by news. It is expected that the lithium carbonate price will fluctuate widely. The recommended operation is short - term interval trading, and it is advisable to buy options to protect positions or buy straddle options [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Information 3.1 Market Data - **Futures Contracts**: On August 28, 2025, the closing prices of near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts of lithium carbonate futures decreased compared with the previous day, with decreases of 900 yuan/ton, 860 yuan/ton, 760 yuan/ton, and 720 yuan/ton respectively. The trading volume of lithium carbonate futures was 805,585 lots (+75,940), and the position volume of the active contract was 347,063 lots (-4,259) [3]. - **Spot Prices**: The average price of 99.5% battery - grade domestic lithium carbonate was 80,000 yuan/ton, up 1,600 yuan/ton; the average price of 99.2% industrial - grade domestic lithium carbonate was 77,700 yuan/ton, up 1,600 yuan/ton. The price of lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, and other raw materials decreased [3]. - **Inventory**: The inventory was 28,957 tons (+1,480). The SMM lithium carbonate inventory showed that the inventory of smelters, downstream, and other sectors totaled 141,136 tons (-407) [3]. 3.2 Industry News On August 27, mining company KoBold Metals obtained seven mineral exploration licenses from the government of the Democratic Republic of the Congo for lithium and related rare minerals. The licenses cover two regions, and the exploration focuses on lithium [3]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: Last week, the production of lithium carbonate decreased slightly, and the production of lithium carbonate from different raw materials changed little [3]. - **Demand**: Last week, the production of the lithium iron phosphate industry and ternary materials increased. In August, the production of lithium aluminate decreased, and the production schedule of lithium manganate increased. Last week, the production of power batteries increased. In July, the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales continued, but the month - on - month sales decreased; 3C shipments were average; in August, the production schedule of energy - storage batteries increased [3].