| 碳酸锂日评20251112:宽幅震荡 | 7 2 1 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-11-11 2025-11-10 2025-11-04 交易日期(日) 近月合约 收盘价 84620.00 84500.00 77160.00 | | | | 较昨日变化 120.00 | 近两周走势 | | 连一合约 收盘价 86340.00 87120.00 78460.00 | | | | -780.00 | | | 86940.00 78560.00 连二合约 收盘价 86260.00 | | | | -680.00 | | | 连三合约 收盘价 86260.00 86940.00 78500.00 | | | | -680.00 | | | 收盘价 86540.00 87240.00 78560.00 | | | | -700.00 | | | 砖酸包期货 902490.00 986569.00 成交堂(手) 975978.00 | | | | -84,079.00 | W | | 活跃合约 (元/吨) 持仓堂(手) 526493.0 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core View of the Report - On November 4, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated downward. The spot market remained bearish, and the basis changed from a discount to a premium. Currently, both supply and demand are strong. The news of the resumption of production of lithium mines in Jiangxi is inconsistent, but the production of lithium carbonate remains high. High prices have increased the wait - and - see sentiment among downstream players. The inflection point may be approaching. If the weakening of demand is verified, there is still room for the price to fall. It is expected that the lithium price will fluctuate widely. The recommended trading strategy is to hold short positions and partially take profits after the downward trend stabilizes [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Data Futures Price and Trading Volume - On November 4, 2025, the closing prices of lithium carbonate futures contracts decreased compared with the previous day. For example, the closing price of the near - month contract was 77,160 yuan/ton (-3,460 yuan/ton), and the closing price of the active contract was 78,560 yuan/ton (-3,720 yuan/ton). The trading volume of the active contract was 975,978 hands (+389,310 hands), and the open interest was 457,374 hands (-67,810 hands) [1] Inventory and Basis - The inventory on November 4, 2025, was 26,490 tons (-800 tons). The basis (SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price - lithium carbonate active contract closing price) changed from - 1,280 yuan/ton on November 3 to 2,340 yuan/ton on November 4, an increase of 3,620 yuan/ton [1] Raw Material Prices - On November 4, 2025, the average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 931 US dollars/ton (-10 US dollars/ton), and the average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) was 1,315 yuan/ton (-35 yuan/ton) [1] Downstream Product Prices and Output - The prices of some downstream products such as lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and electrolyte changed. In terms of output, last week, the output of lithium iron phosphate increased, the output of ternary materials increased, and the output of power batteries increased. In November, the production schedule of cobalt - lithium increased, and the production schedule of manganese - lithium decreased [1] Terminal Market Conditions - In October, the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales slowed down; the 3C shipments were average; the production schedule of energy - storage batteries increased in November [1] Supply - related News - The lithium spodumene concentrate of the Bougouni lithium project of Kodal Minerals has been shipped to the port of San Pedro, Côte d'Ivoire, with a cumulative shipment of over 10,000 tons, and the shipment progress meets market expectations [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The lithium carbonate market is still highly volatile. Short - term supply and demand are both strong, with high lithium carbonate production, rising downstream demand, and social inventory depletion. The fundamentals have little change in the short term, and the market is easily affected by news. It is expected that the lithium carbonate price will fluctuate widely. The recommended operation is short - term interval trading, and it is advisable to buy options to protect positions or buy straddle options [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Information 3.1 Market Data - **Futures Contracts**: On August 28, 2025, the closing prices of near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts of lithium carbonate futures decreased compared with the previous day, with decreases of 900 yuan/ton, 860 yuan/ton, 760 yuan/ton, and 720 yuan/ton respectively. The trading volume of lithium carbonate futures was 805,585 lots (+75,940), and the position volume of the active contract was 347,063 lots (-4,259) [3]. - **Spot Prices**: The average price of 99.5% battery - grade domestic lithium carbonate was 80,000 yuan/ton, up 1,600 yuan/ton; the average price of 99.2% industrial - grade domestic lithium carbonate was 77,700 yuan/ton, up 1,600 yuan/ton. The price of lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, and other raw materials decreased [3]. - **Inventory**: The inventory was 28,957 tons (+1,480). The SMM lithium carbonate inventory showed that the inventory of smelters, downstream, and other sectors totaled 141,136 tons (-407) [3]. 3.2 Industry News On August 27, mining company KoBold Metals obtained seven mineral exploration licenses from the government of the Democratic Republic of the Congo for lithium and related rare minerals. The licenses cover two regions, and the exploration focuses on lithium [3]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: Last week, the production of lithium carbonate decreased slightly, and the production of lithium carbonate from different raw materials changed little [3]. - **Demand**: Last week, the production of the lithium iron phosphate industry and ternary materials increased. In August, the production of lithium aluminate decreased, and the production schedule of lithium manganate increased. Last week, the production of power batteries increased. In July, the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales continued, but the month - on - month sales decreased; 3C shipments were average; in August, the production schedule of energy - storage batteries increased [3].