碳酸锂日报 碳酸锂日报（2025 年 11 月 18 日） 一、研究观点 点 评 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 1. 昨日碳酸锂期货 2601 合约涨 9%至 95200 元/吨。现货价格方面，电池级碳酸锂平均价上涨 1000 元 /吨至 86150 元/吨，工业级碳酸锂平均价上涨 1000 元/吨至 83800 元/吨，电池级氢氧化锂（粗颗 粒）上涨 800 元/吨至 77280 元/吨。仓单方面，昨日仓单库存减少 217 吨至 26953 吨。 2. 供应端，产量持平+进口增加，周度产量环比小幅增加，11 月国内产量环比变化不大，10 月智利出 口碳酸锂至中国环比增长 46%至 1.62 万吨。需求端，11 月三元材料+磷酸铁锂对碳酸锂需求环比增 加 4%至 11.46 万吨。库存端，碳酸锂社会库存连续去库 13 周至 12.05 万吨，库存周转天数下降至期 货上市以来新低 28.1 天，其中下游去库速度较快。 3. 当前市场多空博弈加剧，短期股商共振，基本面看多的核心原因在于 11 月整体维持较快速度去库 的节奏中，且仓单库存维持低位，矿价表现仍偏坚挺，储能 ...

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate market is experiencing significant price declines due to weak downstream demand and various external factors, including changing tariff policies and increased supply, leading to a bearish sentiment in the industry [2][3][10]. Price Trends - Lithium carbonate futures and spot prices have entered a downward trend, with futures prices dropping to a historical low of 66,000 yuan/ton by April 30, 2023, marking a cumulative decline of 15% since the beginning of the year [2][3]. - The spot price for battery-grade lithium carbonate has decreased from 75,100 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to 68,300 yuan/ton, reflecting a drop of 9% [5]. Demand Factors - Downstream demand remains weak, with battery manufacturers reducing orders for cathode materials, indicating that actual demand has not met expectations [3][9]. - The U.S. tariff policies have directly impacted the export market for Chinese lithium batteries, leading to a significant contraction in demand [3][9]. Supply Dynamics - The supply side has seen increased production, particularly from major mines in Jiangxi, which have resumed operations post-Chinese New Year, contributing to a rise in lithium carbonate output [4][7]. - Despite some lithium salt manufacturers implementing production cuts, the overall supply continues to grow, leading to a further decline in prices [4][10]. Inventory and Production Rates - The lithium carbonate production rate reached a historical high of 7.9 million tons per month, with the operating rate at 48.77%, reflecting a slight decrease from the previous week [8][10]. - Inventory levels are increasing, with total inventory nearing historical highs, indicating a potential oversupply situation [8][10]. Market Sentiment - The market sentiment is predominantly bearish, with participants concerned about the ongoing price declines and the impact of tariffs on future demand [3][9]. - Analysts suggest that the current low prices may limit further declines, but the overall market remains cautious due to high inventory levels and weak demand [11].