1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On November 17, 2025, the 2601 contract of lithium carbonate futures rose 9% to 95,200 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1,000 yuan/ton to 86,150 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1,000 yuan/ton to 83,800 yuan/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) rose 800 yuan/ton to 77,280 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 217 tons to 26,953 tons [3]. - On the supply side, production remained flat while imports increased. The weekly production increased slightly month - on - month, with little change in domestic production in November compared to the previous month. In October, Chile's lithium carbonate exports to China increased by 46% month - on - month to 16,200 tons. On the demand side, the demand for lithium carbonate from ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate in November increased by 4% month - on - month to 114,600 tons. In terms of inventory, the social inventory of lithium carbonate has been decreasing for 13 consecutive weeks to 120,500 tons, and the inventory turnover days dropped to a new low of 28.1 days since the listing of futures, with a relatively fast de - stocking speed in the downstream [3]. - Currently, the long - short game in the market has intensified, with short - term resonance between stocks and commodities. The core reason for being bullish on the fundamentals is that in November, the inventory has been decreasing at a relatively fast pace, the warehouse receipt inventory remains low, the ore price is still firm, and the expected prosperity of the energy storage end and the strengthening of related material prices have increased the demand for inventory replenishment in each link and raw materials. However, several points need attention: First, as prices rise, spot trading has become sluggish, but the supply side is expected to increase the operating rate to some extent, and the gap in December may narrow compared to November. Second, there is a mismatch between the phased terminal performance and market expectations. Affected by the project cycle, the newly commissioned scale in October decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month. In October, the retail sales of new energy vehicles decreased by about 1.3% month - on - month, and the power end may face an off - season in the first quarter after the pre - consumption this year. Third, the actual resumption of production of lithium mines in Jiangxi is still uncertain, with a 10 - working - day document publicity period and the specific time node unknown. Fourth, the current weighted contract positions of lithium carbonate exceed 1.1 million lots, and the main contract positions exceed 550,000 lots, so position disturbances need to be vigilant [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Futures, spot prices, and warehouse receipt inventory: The 2601 contract of lithium carbonate futures rose 9% to 95,200 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) increased. The warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 217 tons to 26,953 tons [3]. - Supply, demand, and inventory: On the supply side, production was flat with increased imports. In October, Chile's exports to China increased by 46% to 16,200 tons. On the demand side, November demand increased by 4% to 114,600 tons. The social inventory decreased for 13 consecutive weeks to 120,500 tons, and the inventory turnover days dropped to 28.1 days [3]. - Market situation: The long - short game intensified, with short - term resonance between stocks and commodities. Bullish fundamentals are due to fast de - stocking, low warehouse receipt inventory, and firm ore prices. However, there are concerns such as sluggish spot trading, potential supply increase, terminal - market expectation mismatch, uncertain resumption of Jiangxi lithium mines, and large contract positions [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Price changes: Most products in the lithium - battery industry chain showed price increases on November 17, 2025, compared to November 14. For example, the main contract closing price of futures increased by 7,840 yuan/ton, and the price of lithium - related ores, lithium salts, and some lithium - battery materials also rose. Some products like certain ternary precursors and battery cells remained unchanged [5]. - Price differences: The battery - grade lithium hydroxide - battery - grade lithium carbonate price difference decreased by 200 yuan/ton, and the CIF China - Japan - South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide - SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide price difference decreased by 455 yuan/ton [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - Ore prices: Charts show the price trends of lithium - bearing ores such as lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica from 2024 to 2025 [6][8]. - Lithium and lithium salt prices: The price trends of metal lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, etc., are presented from 2024 to 2025 [10]. - Price differences: Charts display the price differences between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, etc., from 2024 to 2025 [17]. - Precursor and cathode materials: The price trends of ternary precursors and cathode materials such as ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate are shown from 2024 to 2025 [24][26]. - Lithium - battery prices: The price trends of lithium - battery cells and batteries such as 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, etc., are presented from 2024 to 2025 [32]. - Inventory: The inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other sectors are shown from March to November 2025 [37]. - Production cost: The chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as外购三元极片黑粉,外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉,外购锂云母精矿, and外购锂辉石精矿 from 2024 to 2025 [42]. 3.4 Research Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng, a science master, is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious - metal researcher, etc. He has over a decade of commodity research experience, and the team has won many awards [45]. - Wang Heng, a finance master from the University of Adelaide, Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon [46]. - Zhu Xi, a science master from the University of Warwick, UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching lithium and nickel [46].

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate market is experiencing significant price declines due to weak downstream demand and various external factors, including changing tariff policies and increased supply, leading to a bearish sentiment in the industry [2][3][10]. Price Trends - Lithium carbonate futures and spot prices have entered a downward trend, with futures prices dropping to a historical low of 66,000 yuan/ton by April 30, 2023, marking a cumulative decline of 15% since the beginning of the year [2][3]. - The spot price for battery-grade lithium carbonate has decreased from 75,100 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to 68,300 yuan/ton, reflecting a drop of 9% [5]. Demand Factors - Downstream demand remains weak, with battery manufacturers reducing orders for cathode materials, indicating that actual demand has not met expectations [3][9]. - The U.S. tariff policies have directly impacted the export market for Chinese lithium batteries, leading to a significant contraction in demand [3][9]. Supply Dynamics - The supply side has seen increased production, particularly from major mines in Jiangxi, which have resumed operations post-Chinese New Year, contributing to a rise in lithium carbonate output [4][7]. - Despite some lithium salt manufacturers implementing production cuts, the overall supply continues to grow, leading to a further decline in prices [4][10]. Inventory and Production Rates - The lithium carbonate production rate reached a historical high of 7.9 million tons per month, with the operating rate at 48.77%, reflecting a slight decrease from the previous week [8][10]. - Inventory levels are increasing, with total inventory nearing historical highs, indicating a potential oversupply situation [8][10]. Market Sentiment - The market sentiment is predominantly bearish, with participants concerned about the ongoing price declines and the impact of tariffs on future demand [3][9]. - Analysts suggest that the current low prices may limit further declines, but the overall market remains cautious due to high inventory levels and weak demand [11].