碳酸锂市场趋势
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碳酸锂:供给扰动,偏强震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-01-21 02:15
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The price of lithium carbonate is expected to show a relatively strong and volatile trend due to supply disturbances [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs **Fundamental Tracking** - **Futures Market**: For the 2605 contract, the closing price was 160,500 yuan, the trading volume was 451,074 lots, and the open interest was 415,351 lots. For the 2607 contract, the closing price was 161,360 yuan, the trading volume was 72,870 lots, and the open interest was 123,437 lots. The warehouse receipt volume was 27,681 lots [3]. - **Price Differences**: The spot - 2605 was -8,000 yuan, the spot - 2607 was -8,860 yuan, and the 2605 - 2607 basis was -860 yuan. The difference between electric carbon and industrial carbon was 3,500 yuan, and the spot - CIF was 39,395 yuan [3]. - **Raw Materials**: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 1,985 yuan, and the price of lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) was 4,710 yuan [3]. - **Lithium Salts**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 152,500 yuan, industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 149,000 yuan, battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) was 151,850 yuan, etc. [3]. - **Consumer Products**: The prices of various lithium - related consumer products such as ternary materials and lithium hexafluorophosphate are also provided in the report [3]. **Macro and Industry News** - **Price Changes**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 154,099 yuan/ton, up 2,434 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 152,500 yuan/ton, up 1,500 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 149,000 yuan/ton, up 1,500 yuan/ton [4]. - **Lithium Spodumene Imports**: In December, the import volume of lithium spodumene increased compared with November, reaching 788,500 physical tons. The imports from Canada increased significantly, reaching 33,500 tons. The imports from Zimbabwe were 132,200 tons, a 19.85% increase, and those from Mali were 77,000 tons, a 5.24% increase. The imports from Australia decreased by 27.18% to 309,500 tons, and those from Nigeria decreased by 13.12% to 80,000 tons [4][5]. - **Lithium Carbonate Imports**: In December, China imported 23,989 tons of lithium carbonate, a 9% increase from the previous month but a 14% decrease year - on - year. From January to December, the cumulative import volume was 243,000 tons, a 3.4% increase year - on - year [5]. **Trend Intensity** - The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend. The trend intensity ranges from -2 to 2, with -2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [5].
碳酸锂:市场情绪向好,短期高位运行
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-12-18 02:14
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The sentiment in the lithium carbonate market is positive, and prices are expected to remain high in the short term [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market Data**: The closing price of the 2601 contract was 106,820, with a trading volume of 56,079 and an open interest of 79,454; the closing price of the 2605 contract was 108,620, with a trading volume of 1,158,611 and an open interest of 668,589 [1] - **Warehouse Receipt Volume**: The warehouse receipt volume was 15,636 hands [1] - **Basis Data**: The basis of spot - 2601 was -9,770, spot - 2605 was -11,570, 2601 - 2605 was -1,800, electric carbon - industrial carbon was 2,600, and spot - CIF was 18,218 [1] - **Raw Material Prices**: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 1,320, and the price of lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) was 2,785 [1] - **Lithium Salt Prices**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 97,050, industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 94,450, battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) was 90,100, etc [1] - **Consumption - Related Product Prices**: The prices of various ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, hexafluorophosphate, and electrolytes are provided, such as the price of ternary material 523 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) was 158,750 [1] Macro and Industry News - SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 97,171 yuan/ton, with an increase of 1,209 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day; the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 97,050 yuan/ton, up 1,200 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 94,450 yuan/ton, up 1,100 yuan/ton [2] - In December 17, 2025, due to environmental protection reasons and poor air quality in Hubei, some phosphorus chemical enterprises in Yichang and Jingmen reduced production or shut down, which will affect the supply of key upstream materials for new - energy batteries and may spread to downstream and terminal markets [2][3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral view [3]
碳酸锂:震荡运行,供给增量制约上方空间
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-09-17 01:59
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The report indicates that lithium carbonate will operate in a volatile manner, and the increase in supply restricts the upside space [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Contracts**: For the 2511 contract, the closing price is 73,180 yuan, the trading volume is 500,267 lots, and the open interest is 300,437 lots; for the 2601 contract, the closing price is 73,340 yuan, the trading volume is 110,760 lots, and the open interest is 173,875 lots [1]. - **Basis**: The basis of spot - 2511 is - 330 yuan, and the basis of spot - 2601 is - 490 yuan; the basis of 2511 - 2601 is - 160 yuan [1]. - **Raw Materials**: The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) is 853 yuan, and the price of lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) is 1,815 yuan [1]. - **Lithium Salts**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 72,850 yuan, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 70,600 yuan [1]. - **Related Products**: The price of lithium iron phosphate (power - type) is 33,470 yuan, and the price of ternary material 523 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) is 114,375 yuan [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The average price of SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index is 72,835 yuan/ton, up 455 yuan/ton from the previous working day; the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 72,850 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan/ton; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 70,600 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan/ton [2]. - Longpan Technology's holding subsidiary signed a procurement cooperation agreement with CATL, expecting to sell 15.75 tons of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials to CATL's overseas factories from the second quarter of 2026 to 2031, with a total sales amount exceeding 6 billion yuan [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral view [3].
碳酸锂:供给端扰动反复,宽幅震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-28 02:50
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The price of lithium carbonate is expected to experience wide - amplitude fluctuations due to repeated disturbances on the supply side [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Market Data**: For the 2509 contract, the closing price was 79,040 yuan, down 220 yuan compared to T - 1; the trading volume was 15,027 lots, down 4,545 lots; the open interest was 29,214 lots, down 4,831 lots. For the 2511 contract, the closing price was 78,860 yuan, down 160 yuan; the trading volume was 729,645 lots, up 170,046 lots; the open interest was 351,322 lots, up 1,826 lots. The warehouse receipt volume was 27,477 lots, up 787 lots [2] - **Price Difference Data**: The spot - 2509 was 2,560 yuan, up 120 yuan; the spot - 2511 was 2,740 yuan, up 60 yuan; the basis of 2509 - 2511 was 180 yuan, down 60 yuan; the difference between electric carbon and industrial carbon was 2,300 yuan, unchanged [2] - **Raw Material and Lithium Salt Data**: The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 920 yuan, unchanged; the price of lepidolite (2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,970 yuan, unchanged; the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 81,600 yuan, down 100 yuan; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 79,300 yuan, down 100 yuan [2] - **Consumer Data**: The price of ternary material 523 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) was 114,400 yuan, unchanged; the price of ternary material 622 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) was 117,850 yuan, unchanged; the price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power - type) was 145,900 yuan, unchanged; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate was 56,200 yuan, unchanged [2] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 81,739 yuan/ton, down 780 yuan/ton compared to the previous workday. The price range of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 79,400 - 84,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 81,700 yuan/ton, down 800 yuan/ton. The price range of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 78,800 - 80,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 79,400 yuan/ton, down 800 yuan/ton [3] - In the first half of 2025, Hunan Yueneng's shipments of phosphate cathode materials reached 480,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 55.38%. Its operating income was 14.3577771 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 33.17%. The net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was 305.1675 million yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 21.59%. The product gross profit margin was 6.97%, a decrease of 1.02 percentage points compared to the same period last year [3][4] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lithium carbonate was - 1, indicating a relatively bearish outlook [4]
碳酸锂:供给端扰动加剧,短期或偏强
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-25 02:02
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "strong" rating for the short - term trend of lithium carbonate, with a trend strength of 1 [3] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The supply - side disturbances of lithium carbonate are intensifying, and it may be strong in the short term [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: For the 2509 contract, the closing price is 76,680, the trading volume is 1,770,283, and the open interest is 436,727. For the 2511 contract, the closing price is 75,000, the trading volume is 313,782, and the open interest is 147,029. The warehouse receipt volume is 11,654 [1] - **Price Difference Data**: The basis of spot - 2509 is - 6,130, spot - 2511 is - 4,450, 2509 - 2511 is 1,680, and the price difference between electric carbon and industrial carbon is 1,650. The difference between spot and CIF is 8,304 [1] - **Raw Material and Lithium Salt Data**: The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) is 764, lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) is 1,655. Battery - grade lithium carbonate is 70,550, industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 68,900, battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) is 65,670, etc. [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price is 70,173 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 41 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 70,550 yuan/ton, and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 68,900 yuan/ton, both increasing by 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day [2] - Argentina's economic minister announced that the RIGI evaluation committee rejected Ganfeng's expansion application for the Mariana salt lake project. Meanwhile, the committee approved Galan's lithium project with an investment of $217 million. There are still lithium projects from Rio Tinto and South Korea's POSCO applying for RIGI [3] - This week, the lithium carbonate inventory is 143,170 tons, a week - on - week increase of 550 tons. Upstream inventory decreased by 2,654 tons, downstream inventory increased by 1,544 tons, and trade enterprise inventory increased by 1,660 tons [3]
碳酸锂:矿端存增量预期,仓单回升但总量偏低
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-10 01:55
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The report focuses on the fundamentals of lithium carbonate, including price, volume, and inventory data, as well as macro and industry news, and the trend strength is neutral [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Data of Lithium Carbonate - **Futures Market**: The closing prices of the 2509 and 2511 contracts increased, with the 2509 contract at 64,400 and the 2511 contract at 64,080. The trading volumes of both contracts decreased, and the open interest of the 2509 contract decreased while that of the 2511 contract increased slightly. The warehouse receipt volume increased by 626 to 13,281 [1]. - **Spot Market**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 63,300, up 400 from the previous day, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 61,700, also up 400. The price difference between electric and industrial lithium carbonate was 1,600 [1]. - **Raw Materials**: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 666, up 8, and the price of lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,385, up 30 [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 63,219 yuan/ton, up 431 yuan/ton from the previous day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 63,300 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 61,700 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan/ton [2]. - Premier African Minerals restarted the operation of the Zulu lithium - tantalum project in Zimbabwe. The project has estimated mineral resources of 526,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent and 1,025 tons of tantalum pentoxide. The company aims to supply lithium concentrate to Tianhua New Energy, with a monthly supply of at least 4,000 tons starting from April 2025 [3]. 3.3 Trend Strength - The trend strength of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [3].
碳酸锂:需求疲软叠加成本下移,偏弱运行延续
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-04-28 02:16
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report The report indicates that lithium carbonate is expected to continue its weak performance due to weak demand and declining costs [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: For the 2507 contract, the closing price was 68,180 yuan, down 120 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume was 108,177 lots, an increase of 3,793 lots; the open interest was 217,370 lots, an increase of 4,914 lots. For the 2509 contract, the closing price was 69,400 yuan, down 200 yuan; the trading volume was 11,285 lots, an increase of 3,518 lots; the open interest was 30,119 lots, an increase of 981 lots [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipt volume was 31,795 lots, an increase of 240 lots [1]. - **Basis**: The basis of spot - 2507 was 1,620 yuan, an increase of 20 yuan; the basis of spot - 2509 was 400 yuan, an increase of 100 yuan; the basis of 2507 - 2509 was -1,220 yuan, an increase of 80 yuan [1]. - **Raw Materials**: The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 793 US dollars, down 2 US dollars; the price of lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,590 yuan, down 20 yuan [1]. - **Lithium Salts**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 69,800 yuan, down 100 yuan; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 68,050 yuan, down 100 yuan [1]. - **Related Products in the Industrial Chain**: The prices of various lithium - related products such as lithium hydroxide, lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, lithium hexafluorophosphate, and electrolyte showed different degrees of change [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Price Information**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 69,955 yuan/ton, down 93 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 69,800 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 68,050 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton [2]. - **Industry Agreement**: The Chilean National Economic Prosecutor's Office (FNE) approved the public - private partnership agreement between Codelco and SQM with mitigation measures. The joint venture will mine lithium hydroxide and lithium carbonate from the Atacama Salt Lake, with management divided into two phases [3]. - **Mine License Transfer**: Kodal Minerals announced that the mining license for the Foulaboula mine has been successfully transferred to its subsidiary, and the company expects to start exporting spodumene concentrate next quarter [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral trend [3]