2025 年 8 月 28 日 碳酸锂：供给端扰动反复，宽幅震荡 | | 邵婉嫕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 | shaowanyi@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | | 刘鸿儒（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03124172 | liuhongru@gtht.com | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 碳酸锂基本面数据 | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2509合约（收盘价） | 79,040 | -220 | -2,000 | -6,000 | 5,920 | 17,740 | | | | 2509合约（成交量） | 15,027 | -4,545 | -40,721 | -60,716 | -990,368 | -32,216 | | | | 2509合约（持仓量） | 29,214 | -4,831 | -35,943 | -79,180 | -349,258 | -75,238 | ...

【基本面跟踪】 2025 年 7 月 25 日 碳酸锂：供给端扰动加剧，短期或偏强 | 邵婉嫕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 | shaowanyi@gtht.com | | --- | --- | | 刘鸿儒（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03124172 | liuhongru@gtht.com | 碳酸锂基本面数据 | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2509合约（收盘价） | 76,680 | 7,300 | 8,720 | 12,500 | 15,980 | 5,060 | | | | 2509合约（成交量） | 1,770,283 | 436,124 | 943,344 | 1,372,261 | 1,088,536 | 1,766,677 | | | | 2509合约（持仓量） | 436,727 | 74,673 | 73,051 | 113,044 | 93,163 | 413,319 | | | 盘面 | 2 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The report focuses on the fundamentals of lithium carbonate, including price, volume, and inventory data, as well as macro and industry news, and the trend strength is neutral [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Data of Lithium Carbonate - **Futures Market**: The closing prices of the 2509 and 2511 contracts increased, with the 2509 contract at 64,400 and the 2511 contract at 64,080. The trading volumes of both contracts decreased, and the open interest of the 2509 contract decreased while that of the 2511 contract increased slightly. The warehouse receipt volume increased by 626 to 13,281 [1]. - **Spot Market**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 63,300, up 400 from the previous day, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 61,700, also up 400. The price difference between electric and industrial lithium carbonate was 1,600 [1]. - **Raw Materials**: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 666, up 8, and the price of lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,385, up 30 [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 63,219 yuan/ton, up 431 yuan/ton from the previous day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 63,300 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 61,700 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan/ton [2]. - Premier African Minerals restarted the operation of the Zulu lithium - tantalum project in Zimbabwe. The project has estimated mineral resources of 526,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent and 1,025 tons of tantalum pentoxide. The company aims to supply lithium concentrate to Tianhua New Energy, with a monthly supply of at least 4,000 tons starting from April 2025 [3]. 3.3 Trend Strength - The trend strength of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report The report indicates that lithium carbonate is expected to continue its weak performance due to weak demand and declining costs [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: For the 2507 contract, the closing price was 68,180 yuan, down 120 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume was 108,177 lots, an increase of 3,793 lots; the open interest was 217,370 lots, an increase of 4,914 lots. For the 2509 contract, the closing price was 69,400 yuan, down 200 yuan; the trading volume was 11,285 lots, an increase of 3,518 lots; the open interest was 30,119 lots, an increase of 981 lots [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipt volume was 31,795 lots, an increase of 240 lots [1]. - **Basis**: The basis of spot - 2507 was 1,620 yuan, an increase of 20 yuan; the basis of spot - 2509 was 400 yuan, an increase of 100 yuan; the basis of 2507 - 2509 was -1,220 yuan, an increase of 80 yuan [1]. - **Raw Materials**: The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 793 US dollars, down 2 US dollars; the price of lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,590 yuan, down 20 yuan [1]. - **Lithium Salts**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 69,800 yuan, down 100 yuan; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 68,050 yuan, down 100 yuan [1]. - **Related Products in the Industrial Chain**: The prices of various lithium - related products such as lithium hydroxide, lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, lithium hexafluorophosphate, and electrolyte showed different degrees of change [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Price Information**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 69,955 yuan/ton, down 93 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 69,800 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 68,050 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton [2]. - **Industry Agreement**: The Chilean National Economic Prosecutor's Office (FNE) approved the public - private partnership agreement between Codelco and SQM with mitigation measures. The joint venture will mine lithium hydroxide and lithium carbonate from the Atacama Salt Lake, with management divided into two phases [3]. - **Mine License Transfer**: Kodal Minerals announced that the mining license for the Foulaboula mine has been successfully transferred to its subsidiary, and the company expects to start exporting spodumene concentrate next quarter [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral trend [3]