Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the urea price has adjusted during the off-season in May and June, leading to a delay in stocking by distributors and usage by farmers, but the compound fertilizer industry remains a necessity, with delayed demand expected to be concentrated in the third quarter [1] - The price gap for monoammonium phosphate (MAP) between domestic and international markets is significant, and most of the company's phosphate fertilizer exports are expected to be realized in the third quarter [1]

Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of CNY 9.398 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.63% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 951 million, with a year-on-year increase of 28.98% [2] - The first quarter saw strong sales, while the second quarter experienced delays in sales of summer and autumn fertilizers due to raw material price adjustments [2] Sales and Market Dynamics - The first quarter's strong sales were attributed to low winter stock levels and increased procurement by distributors [2] - In the second quarter, conventional fertilizer sales declined, while new fertilizers maintained stable sales due to their application in short-cycle economic crops [2][3] Raw Material Management - The company has demonstrated superior performance in managing raw material price fluctuations compared to peers, aided by a diverse product portfolio and exclusive potassium fertilizer import rights [3] - The company maintains a relatively low inventory level, which helps mitigate risks associated with raw material price volatility [3] Profit Margins - The gross margin for conventional fertilizers is low at 12.56%, with significant potential for improvement as the company cannot fully pass on increased raw material costs to downstream customers [4] - The gross margin for monoammonium phosphate (MAP) is expected to recover as the supply-demand balance in the phosphate market stabilizes [4] Export and International Operations - The company received its first batch of export quotas for phosphate fertilizers in May, with a portion of exports completed in the first half of the year [8] - The majority of phosphate fertilizer exports are expected to be realized in the third quarter [9] Research and Development - Increased R&D expenses are driven by advancements in the compound fertilizer industry and the growing penetration of new fertilizers in economic crop cultivation [7] Future Outlook - The company anticipates a release of delayed sales in the third quarter, as the compound fertilizer industry is considered a necessity [9] - The profitability of iron phosphate is expected to improve following significant process upgrades made last year [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the basic chemical industry as of July 25, 2025 [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant growth in phosphate fertilizer exports, particularly in June 2025, with ammonium phosphate and diammonium phosphate exports reaching 165,600 tons and 506,300 tons respectively, marking substantial month-on-month increases [1]. - The report anticipates a concentrated export period in the third quarter, driven by strong demand from Southeast Asia, which is expected to further boost domestic phosphate fertilizer exports [1]. - Export prices for phosphate fertilizers are favorable, with a notable price difference between domestic and export markets, suggesting potential for increased profitability for leading phosphate companies [2]. Summary by Sections Export Trends - In June 2025, phosphate fertilizer exports saw a significant increase, with ammonium phosphate and diammonium phosphate exports rising by 149,600 tons and 493,400 tons respectively compared to May [1]. - The second and third quarters are typically peak export periods, with 2024 data showing that ammonium phosphate and diammonium phosphate exports in the second quarter accounted for 41.63% and 30.02% of annual exports, respectively [1]. Price Analysis - As of July 23, 2025, the market average price for ammonium phosphate (55% powder) was 3,303 CNY/ton, while the FOB price for ammonium phosphate (55% granular) was 581 USD/ton, indicating a price difference of 846 CNY/ton [2]. - The price for diammonium phosphate (64% in Hubei) was 3,805 CNY/ton, with an FOB price of 768 USD/ton, resulting in a price difference of 1,680 CNY/ton [2]. Key Companies - Yuntianhua (600096) is identified as a leading domestic phosphate chemical company with a phosphate rock capacity of 14.5 million tons/year and a phosphate fertilizer capacity of 5.55 million tons/year, contributing over 20% to national phosphate fertilizer exports [3]. - Hubei Yihua (000422) is a major producer of diammonium phosphate with a production capacity of 1.26 million tons/year and projected exports of 576,100 tons in 2024 [3]. - Xingfa Group (600141) has a phosphate rock capacity of 5.85 million tons/year and a production capacity of 1 million tons/year for ammonium phosphate, achieving a capacity utilization rate of 104.78% in 2024 [3]. - Xinyangfeng (000902) is a leading player in the compound fertilizer sector, with ammonium phosphate production capacity of 1.85 million tons/year and projected production and sales of 1.9789 million tons and 1.1290 million tons respectively in 2024 [3].

Core Viewpoint - The export window for phosphate fertilizers has arrived, and the profitability of phosphate fertilizer companies is expected to be maintained due to regulatory changes and market dynamics [2][4]. Group 1: Export Regulations and Market Dynamics - In May 2023, the General Administration of Customs released inspection regulations for fertilizer exports, effective December 1, 2023, which aims to improve the quality and increase the quantity of fertilizer exports [2]. - The export of phosphate fertilizers will be phased, with the first phase requiring customs declaration by October 15, focusing on exports from May to September [2]. - The total export quota for phosphate fertilizers in 2025 is expected to decrease compared to the previous year, which may impact domestic prices as the spring farming season has ended and demand has shifted to a low season [2][4]. Group 2: Price Trends and Profitability - As of May 23, 2025, the average prices for 55% monoammonium phosphate and 64% diammonium phosphate in China were 3,330 and 3,526 RMB per ton, reflecting increases of 9.8% and 6.7% respectively since the beginning of the year [3]. - Internationally, the average prices for monoammonium phosphate and diammonium phosphate were 660 and 695 USD per ton, with increases of 14.8% and 13.0% respectively [3]. - Despite the price increases, the average gross profit margins for these products have been declining, with both currently in a loss position [3]. Group 3: Export Volume Trends - In 2024, China's export volumes for monoammonium phosphate and diammonium phosphate were 2,004,700 and 4,563,200 tons, showing declines of 1.6% and 9.4% year-on-year [4]. - In the first four months of 2025, exports dropped significantly, with monoammonium phosphate and diammonium phosphate volumes at 75,300 and 79,800 tons, down 75.7% and 85.3% year-on-year [4]. - The upcoming export window is expected to boost export volumes, which may support or uplift phosphate fertilizer prices [4]. Group 4: Raw Material Prices and Industry Position - Phosphate rock prices have remained high since 2021, with a current price of 1,020 RMB per ton as of May 23, 2025 [5]. - The majority of China's phosphate rock reserves are of medium to low grade, with only about 20% being high-grade [5]. - Leading companies in the phosphate chemical industry are securing high-grade phosphate resources, which enhances their production capabilities and cost advantages in producing high-quality phosphate products [5].