基金研究专题报告 结构重于指数，科技+周期是主线 公募 FOF 基金 2025 年 4 季报分析 核心结论 25Q4，公募 FOF 规模上升，百亿基金公司 7 家，易方达跃居规模第一，CR10 降至 60%。 新发规模 458.54 亿元，偏债型为主。FOF 正收益比例 49%，中信建投睿选 6 个月取得 25Q4 业绩之冠。配置上，增持债基、减持股基和商品型基金。被增持较多的权益基金为 中欧红利优享、汇添富外延增长主题等。整体来看，FOF 基金经理对于后市相对乐观， 预计呈现结构性机会，科技+周期是主线。 【报告亮点】 基于公募 FOF25Q4 季报分析，厘清和跟踪公募 FOF 发展态势、竞争格局、业绩表现及 资产配置特点；多角度筛选出 30 位值得关注的基金经理，深度分析其 4 季度投资操作和 未来展望，总结 FOF 不断迭代的投资策略、方法体系以及最新配置观点。 【主要逻辑】 主要逻辑一：跟踪 FOF 规模、新发、基金公司、基金经理、托管行等现状，分析趋势 25Q4，FOF 数量 549 只，规模 2393.43 亿元，增长 458.54 亿元；新发 42 只/规模 452.46 亿元。百亿 FOF 基 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the active performance of AI hardware sectors, such as storage chips and CPO, with significant increases in various indices, including a 2.6% rise in the ChiNext Mid-Cap 200 Index and a 1.7% increase in the ChiNext Growth Index [1] - The current market should focus on the dual growth of "technology + cycle," with AI hardware experiencing a surge similar to the previous peak during 5G base station construction, driven by rapid structural demand for AI computing power [1] - The sustained strength of AI hardware is attributed to the marginal changes in profit growth, which have not yet shown a significant turning point, suggesting a continuation of the valuation bull market [1] Group 2 - The ChiNext Index increased by 1.0%, while the ChiNext Mid-Cap 200 Index and ChiNext Growth Index saw increases of 2.6% and 1.7%, respectively, indicating a positive trend in the market [3] - The rolling price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the indices are 43.1 times for the ChiNext Index, 116.6 times for the ChiNext Mid-Cap 200 Index, and 41.8 times for the ChiNext Growth Index, reflecting varying levels of valuation across these indices [3] - The ChiNext Mid-Cap 200 Index consists of 200 stocks with medium market capitalization and good liquidity, with over 40% representation from the information technology sector [4]

Market Overview - The three major indices in China opened lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.21%, the Shenzhen Component down 0.20%, and the ChiNext Index down 0.26% [1] - The commercial aerospace and cultivated diamond sectors experienced significant declines [1] Index Performance - Shanghai Composite Index: 3901.13, down 0.21%, with 638 gainers and 1247 losers [2] - Shenzhen Component Index: 13251.27, down 0.20%, with 767 gainers and 1697 losers [2] - ChiNext Index: 3201.38, down 0.26%, with 361 gainers and 857 losers [2] External Market - U.S. stock indices showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones down 179.03 points (0.38%) and the Nasdaq up 30.58 points (0.13%) [3] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell by 1.37%, with major Chinese concept stocks like Baidu and Xpeng experiencing declines of over 3% [3] Institutional Insights - Galaxy Securities suggests that the current valuation of the securities sector is at a historical low, recommending focus on strong leading brokerages due to supportive government policies aimed at stabilizing growth and the capital market [4] - CITIC Securities highlights the expansion of lithium battery applications into new areas such as maritime and aerial vehicles, predicting a strong demand for lithium battery equipment in the coming year [5] - Open Source Securities emphasizes the continuation of a dual-driven strategy combining technology and cyclical sectors, benefiting from global tech cycles and improving PPI conditions [6] - Tianfeng Securities forecasts a V-shaped recovery in coal prices by 2025, driven by production constraints and increased purchasing from downstream sectors [7][8] - CICC reports that global tungsten supply will remain tight over the next 3-5 years due to domestic supply issues and slow overseas production increases [9]