AI 网络：聚焦 Scale up 中光的新增量 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 08 31 年 月 日 通信 英伟达最新财报再次强化全球 AI 算力扩张预期，带动上游光模块、光 连接相关产业链估值提升。国内市场演绎路径正从"业绩兑现"向"预 期放大"过渡，形成二次行情。Scale up 趋势下，光通信产业迎来新 一轮增长机遇，技术迭代与需求升级共同推动行业迈向新阶段。 【英伟达财报强化 AI 预期，光模块板块受益】 【中国海外算力产业链从"业绩兑现"到"预期放大"】 中国海外算力产业链正从"业绩兑现"迈向"预期放大"的二次行情 阶段。中国公司凭借规模制造能力，满足海外云巨头对高速光模块、 交换设备的需求，在更前沿的网络技术（如 1.6T/CPO/LPO）、网络架 构（Scale-up/Scale-out）中扮演关键角色。 增持（维持） 行业走势 -10% 18% 46% 74% 102% 130% 2024-08 2024-12 2025-04 2025-08 通信 沪深300 作者 分析师 宋嘉吉 执业证书编号：S0680519010002 邮箱：songjiaji@gsz ...

Economic Overview - China's GDP for the first half of 2025 grew by 5.3% year-on-year, with fixed asset investment increasing by 2.8%, while real estate development investment fell by 11.2% [3] - The second quarter's growth was supported by "old-for-new" subsidies and stable export growth, but challenges remain in real estate and consumption, necessitating ongoing policy support [3] Equity Market Insights - CITIC Securities suggests that the current market conditions present an opportunity to increase allocations to Hong Kong stocks, particularly in low-priced manufacturing sectors, as the "anti-involution" narrative continues [5] - Guolian Minsheng notes that the current macro environment differs significantly from 2015, with a lack of substantial stable capital inflow, suggesting a weaker market performance compared to previous years [6] - Galaxy Securities anticipates a preference for large-cap stocks in the second half of 2025, with value stocks gaining favor due to stable returns and support from traditional industries [8] Industry Research - In the humanoid robot sector, Invesco Great Wall Fund highlights a significant breakthrough with a 124 million yuan order, indicating a shift towards large-scale commercialization, with the global market expected to reach $20 billion by 2030 [13] - Tianhong Fund emphasizes the improving fundamentals of the military industry, with a focus on upcoming military parades showcasing new equipment, suggesting a favorable investment environment [14] - Galaxy Fund points to the expansion of AI computing power driving demand in the communications sector, with a positive outlook for related electronic components [15] Macro and Fixed Income - Galaxy Fund indicates that long-term interest rates may have room to decline due to economic pressures, recommending attention to key negotiation points between China and the U.S. [21] - Morgan Fund predicts a volatile downward trend in the bond market for the second half of 2025, advising on optimizing investment portfolios in a low-interest environment [22] - 富国基金 suggests a stable yet changing bond market, with expectations of a prolonged low-interest rate environment impacting future investment strategies [23] Asset Allocation Strategies - E Fund recommends a balanced approach to equity and bond investments, highlighting the importance of flexibility in response to market volatility and strong consensus expectations [25][26]