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【广发宏观陈礼清】高成长叙事的宏观条件与择时落地
郭磊宏观茶座· 2025-09-24 07:51
广发证券 资深宏观分析师 陈礼清 博士 chenliqing@ gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 报告摘要 2025年前三季度,中国科技资产领跑大类资产。科技资产的超额收益一方面具有趋势性,是中国经济产业升级的映射和"工程师红利"要素优势的兑现;另一方面也 需具备一定的市场定价条件配合。在前期报告《资产的高成长叙事一般是在什么样的宏观阶段》中,我们对照了历史上相似时段,指出了高成长叙事成立的五个宏 观条件:(1)宏观风险阶段性出清(敢买);(2)名义GDP增速尚未起来(传统资产赚钱效应低);(3)流动性充裕(资金机会成本低);(4)预期回报率存 在粘性(高收益率资产荒);(5)产业叙事存在(技术变革出现,有短期可充分预期的资产)。在上述认识基础上,本篇研究中我们进一步结合胜率+赔率框架落 地具体的宏观择时方案。 维度一: 宏观风险出清程度。高成长叙事需要一个资金"敢买"的风险出清契机。我们测试了标普500波动率指数(VIX)、美债MOVE隐含波动指数、海外经济政策 不确定性指数、月度名义GDP下行波动率、铜金比、全A股权风险溢价六个潜在变量的择时效果。结果显示基于美债MOVE、月度名义GDP下行波动率生成 ...
积极因素不断涌现 公募基金掀起自购潮
Zhong Guo Zheng Quan Bao· 2025-08-10 21:05
Group 1 - Public funds are experiencing a renewed wave of self-purchase, with institutions like ICBC Credit Suisse Fund, Taikang Fund, and Founder Fubon Fund announcing plans to use proprietary funds to buy their equity public funds, reflecting confidence in the long-term stability and health of the capital market [1][2] - The Shanghai Composite Index has recently surpassed 3600 points, boosting investor confidence in the market, and industry insiders suggest that a new round of self-purchase by public funds has begun, signaling positive market sentiment [1][3] - As of August 10, 2025, a total of 137 public fund companies have initiated self-purchases, with 56 companies focusing on stock funds and 73 on mixed funds, indicating a strong preference for equity assets [3] Group 2 - ICBC Credit Suisse Fund announced a self-purchase of at least 10 million yuan for its "ICBC Credit Suisse Selected Return Mixed Fund," with a commitment to hold for at least one year [1][2] - Taikang Fund has utilized 1.55 million yuan of its proprietary funds to invest in its "Taikang Hong Kong Stock Connect Index Fund," while Founder Fubon Fund plans to self-purchase at least 25 million yuan in equity public funds, marking its second self-purchase this year [2][3] - The self-purchase actions by fund companies are expected to enhance performance stability, instill confidence in investors, and encourage a focus on long-term performance rather than short-term gains [3]
隔夜中国资产大涨,港股开盘续升,快手、哔哩哔哩领涨3%,港股互联网ETF(513770)涨1.7%
Xin Lang Ji Jin· 2025-07-18 01:46
Group 1 - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rose by 1.23%, indicating a positive performance for Chinese assets overnight [1] - Hong Kong stocks continued to rise, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index both opening over 1% higher, led by tech giants such as Kuaishou and Bilibili, which rose over 3% [1] - The Hong Kong Internet ETF (513770) saw an increase of 1.7%, reflecting strong investor interest in internet stocks [1] Group 2 - Tianfeng Securities noted that Hong Kong stocks are currently at historical low valuations, with a rebound in foreign investment interest expected due to easing global liquidity and domestic growth policies [2] - Galaxy Securities projected an upward trend for the Hong Kong market, emphasizing the structural nature of the rally and the high investment opportunities in the tech sector [2] - The Hong Kong Internet ETF (513770) has attracted a total net inflow of 1.042 billion yuan over the past 10 trading days, indicating strong capital inflow into the sector [2] Group 3 - The Hong Kong Internet ETF (513770) and its linked funds heavily invest in the "ATM" trio (Alibaba, Tencent, Xiaomi), with a combined weight of 61.06%, making it a key tool for AI investments in Hong Kong [4] - Since the start of the current market rally until the end of June, the CSI Hong Kong Internet Index has seen a cumulative increase of over 28%, outperforming both the Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng Tech Index [4] - The average daily trading volume of the Hong Kong Internet ETF (513770) for the year is 594 million yuan, highlighting its liquidity and appeal for investors [5] Group 4 - The CSI Hong Kong Internet Index has shown significant annual performance fluctuations, with a peak increase of 109.31% in 2020 and a decline of 36.61% in 2021, indicating volatility in the sector [6] - The index's performance over the past five years reflects a mixed trend, with a notable recovery of 23.04% in 2024, suggesting potential for future growth [6]
德国千亿级养老基金做多中国股票,港股通科技ETF(513860)开盘大涨1%
Jin Rong Jie· 2025-07-08 02:20
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the positive performance of the Hong Kong stock market, particularly in sectors such as innovative drugs, chips, and new consumption stocks, with the Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF (513860) rising by 1.14% and accumulating over 27% gains this year [1] - Notable individual stocks include Hong Teng Precision Technology rising over 6%, while Meitu, Kingsoft Cloud, ASMPT, AAC Technologies, ZTE, and Bilibili-W all saw increases of over 2% [1] - The article reports a net inflow of over 260 million yuan into the Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF (513860) over the last three trading days, with a total net inflow of 542 million yuan over the past three months and 680 million yuan year-to-date [1] Group 2 - A German pension fund, KZVK, managing 34.1 billion euros (approximately 286.8 billion yuan), has reportedly entrusted 5 million USD to a Hong Kong institution for investment in Chinese stocks listed in Hong Kong, mainland China, and the United States [1] - CITIC Securities anticipates that the ongoing reform of the Hong Kong listing system will enhance the asset quality and liquidity of the Hong Kong stock market, with continued inflows of southbound capital expected [1] - The article suggests that the Hong Kong stock market may experience a trend of fluctuating upward movement in the third quarter, with potential for earnings upgrades in the fourth quarter due to increased domestic growth policies [1] Group 3 - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF (513860) closely tracks the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology RMB Index, with the top ten weighted stocks as of July 7, 2025, including Xiaomi Group-W, Tencent Holdings, BYD Company, Alibaba-W, Meituan-W, SMIC, Kuaishou-W, Li Auto-W, Xpeng Motors-W, and Innovent Biologics, collectively accounting for 68.78% of the index [1] - Investors can access the Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF (513860) through off-market connections (Class A: 021464; Class C: 021465) for easy investment in quality technology assets in the Hong Kong market [1]