【按】最近河北冬季取暖难题再度引发社会高度关注，我们团队曾在2018年初发布了一篇文章《构建跨 区转移支付机制解决污染难题》，认为高压式的环保整治不可持续，应该建立环保跨区转移支付，以便 实现空气质量的可持续维护。今天再度推送此文，文中作者的单位和职称是2017年的，不是现在的。 ——聂辉华 2026年1月7日 作者 聂辉华，中国人民大学国家发展与战略研究院副院长、教授 李靖，中国人民大学经济学院博士生 邹静娴，中国人民大学国家发展与战略研究院研究员、讲师 摘要 2017年，针对京津冀及其周边地区实施的"环保风暴"取得了显著效果，但也产生了一些问题，主要问题 是环保升级改造的资金严重短缺。粗略估计，环保升级改造预计给北京周边地区带来相当于GDP的 10%-30%的成本，并且在短期内必然拖累经济增长，影响就业和社会稳定。仅仅依靠当地政府的力量， 短期内难以顺利完成环保升级改造。我们认为，解决环保升级改造资金短缺问题的新思路是，构建环保 方面的跨区转移支付机制，由经济发达地区向经济欠发达地区提供资金补偿。跨区转移支付机制的第一 原则是"谁受益，谁付费"，第二原则是"谁污染，谁付费"。跨区转移支付机制符合现行法律要 ...

Group 1 - The delivery of the A330-200P2F aircraft from Titan Aviation Leasing to JD Airlines represents a significant upgrade in the Asian e-commerce logistics sector, marking a shift from mere capacity procurement to asset operation and risk hedging [2] - The A330-200P2F is strategically chosen due to its lifecycle value; it is in a depreciation phase for passenger transport but a peak value phase for cargo transport, extending asset lifespan through P2F modification [4] - JD's strategy involves converting substantial capital expenditures into manageable operating expenses through operational leasing, allowing the company to maintain service efficiency without owning the assets [5] Group 2 - The intervention of Titan Aviation Leasing highlights the financial engineering aspect of the transaction, with a focus on asset liquidity and risk exposure reallocation in the aviation market [5] - The expansion of JD Airlines' fleet, particularly with wide-body aircraft, may lead to increased internal complexity in scheduling and maintenance, potentially resulting in diminishing returns on asset utilization if load factors do not remain high [6] - The competitive landscape for logistics giants in China will hinge on the ability to optimize algorithms to manage "empty space risk" while retaining control over core logistics nodes [6]

Core Viewpoint - The initial public offering (IPO) of Seres Automotive faced significant challenges, including a sharp decline in stock price on its debut, reflecting a disconnect between market expectations and the company's valuation based on future risks [1][2][6]. Group 1: IPO Performance - Seres Automotive raised 14 billion HKD in its IPO, marking the largest IPO for a car company in Hong Kong this year [1]. - On its first trading day, the stock price dropped nearly 10%, leading to a market capitalization loss of over 20 billion HKD [1]. - Despite a significant oversubscription of 133 times from retail investors, institutional investors showed caution, purchasing only slightly more than half of the planned shares [1][5]. Group 2: Valuation Issues - The IPO pricing was based on a discount to the A-share market price, which was deemed inappropriate by institutional investors who focus on intrinsic value rather than relative pricing [3][4]. - The reliance on a potentially inflated A-share price as a benchmark led to a perception of the IPO price as excessively high [4][6]. - The valuation logic collapsed as the company transitioned from a "story-driven" to a "fundamentals-driven" assessment, revealing a disconnect between market expectations and actual performance [7][11]. Group 3: Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, Seres reported a mere 3.7% year-on-year revenue growth, signaling a potential peak in growth [12]. - The company's net profit declined by 1.7% in the third quarter, raising concerns about its profitability and operational efficiency [12]. - The projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 26.5 times at the IPO was significantly higher than the average of 13.6 times for traditional car companies in Hong Kong, leading to skepticism among investors [13][14]. Group 4: Strategic Dependence - Seres' heavy reliance on its partnership with Huawei has created strategic vulnerabilities, as the company has not developed its own core competencies [21][24]. - The shift in market perception from being a unique partner of Huawei to one among many competitors has diminished its valuation appeal [25][28]. - The uncertainty surrounding the future of the partnership with Huawei has led to increased risk premiums in the company's valuation [33]. Group 5: Market Dynamics - The activation of the "green shoe" mechanism by underwriters to stabilize the stock price indicated a lack of confidence in the stock's ability to maintain its initial price without intervention [34][36]. - The Hong Kong market's rationality and focus on performance metrics mean that any slowdown in growth or profitability will be harshly penalized [36][40]. - To regain market confidence, Seres must demonstrate a clear path to reducing its dependence on Huawei and improving its financial performance [38][40].

Core Insights - The company "UU Run" has maintained a low-profile operation in the competitive instant delivery market, focusing on service quality and operational efficiency rather than aggressive marketing and subsidies [5][6][8] - The founder, Qiao Songtao, emphasizes the importance of hands-on experience in optimizing delivery systems, stating that all employees are required to take delivery orders [5][6][14] - The company has achieved profitability and has strategically chosen to operate in lower-tier markets while planning to expand into first-tier cities in the future [7][14][23] Industry Dynamics - The instant delivery industry is experiencing a new wave of competition, driven by major players like Meituan, JD, and Ele.me, which has resulted in increased order volumes for "UU Run" [14][15] - The competition is shifting from a focus on market share to efficiency and service quality, as companies seek to establish unique advantages in a crowded market [15][16] - The industry is expected to evolve towards greater intelligence, scenario segmentation, and platform neutrality, with "UU Run" positioning itself as a foundational infrastructure for physical world deliveries [26][27] Business Strategy - "UU Run" has adopted a strategy of precise resource allocation, offering targeted subsidies based on demand scenarios rather than blanket promotions [11][12] - The company has minimal participation in large-scale price subsidies, focusing instead on maintaining service quality and operational efficiency [12][19] - Future plans include expanding service offerings in various scenarios, such as home services, logistics, and corporate deliveries, while leveraging technology for improved delivery capabilities [23][28] Technological Innovation - The company has a strong emphasis on technology, with 18% of its workforce dedicated to tech development, including a self-developed dispatch system and applications of AI [26][27] - "UU Run" is exploring low-altitude logistics and has initiated partnerships for drone delivery, indicating a commitment to innovative delivery solutions [28][29] Market Position - "UU Run" is positioned as an independent third-party platform, not reliant on any single major player, which allows it to serve the entire market effectively [15][19] - The company aims to build a competitive edge through service reliability and operational excellence, rather than engaging in price wars [16][19]