临近年末，又到了盘点一年投资收益的时刻。截至12月12日，万得全A指数年内上涨24.80%；创业板指 与科创100均涨超49%，沪深300和上证指数涨幅也超过16%。 这个时候，很多投资者回顾自己全年的收益，都会感到一种相似的困惑：明明花了大量时间研究行业、 跟踪公司、分析数据，甚至为了把握机会频繁调仓，为什么最终收益还是不如那个看起来"不用动脑"的 宽基指数？ 这并非个例。"大多数主动投资者跑不赢指数"在A股已是屡被验证的现象。问题到底出在哪里？如果深 入本质，你会发现核心往往不在于信息不够或努力不足，而是认知偏差、交易行为和策略构建等多重因 素共同作用的结果。 一、认知差异：你是在"抓鱼"，还是在"顺水行船"？ 在投资中，认知决定收益。我们理解投资对象的方式，深刻影响着最终回报。投资个股和投资指数，在 认知层面有着根本的不同，这也是收益差距的深层根源。 投资个股，就像在湍急的河流中捕捉某一条特定的鱼。 你需要聚焦于一家具体的公司——理解它的商业模式、管理团队、产品竞争力、财务状况和行业地位。 然而，任何公司都处在动态竞争中，经营过程中总伴随着难以预测的"瑕疵"： 这类微观干扰突发性强、难以预判。更关键的是 ...

Core Viewpoint - The initial public offering (IPO) of Seres Automotive faced significant challenges, including a sharp decline in stock price on its debut, reflecting a disconnect between market expectations and the company's valuation based on future risks [1][2][6]. Group 1: IPO Performance - Seres Automotive raised 14 billion HKD in its IPO, marking the largest IPO for a car company in Hong Kong this year [1]. - On its first trading day, the stock price dropped nearly 10%, leading to a market capitalization loss of over 20 billion HKD [1]. - Despite a significant oversubscription of 133 times from retail investors, institutional investors showed caution, purchasing only slightly more than half of the planned shares [1][5]. Group 2: Valuation Issues - The IPO pricing was based on a discount to the A-share market price, which was deemed inappropriate by institutional investors who focus on intrinsic value rather than relative pricing [3][4]. - The reliance on a potentially inflated A-share price as a benchmark led to a perception of the IPO price as excessively high [4][6]. - The valuation logic collapsed as the company transitioned from a "story-driven" to a "fundamentals-driven" assessment, revealing a disconnect between market expectations and actual performance [7][11]. Group 3: Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, Seres reported a mere 3.7% year-on-year revenue growth, signaling a potential peak in growth [12]. - The company's net profit declined by 1.7% in the third quarter, raising concerns about its profitability and operational efficiency [12]. - The projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 26.5 times at the IPO was significantly higher than the average of 13.6 times for traditional car companies in Hong Kong, leading to skepticism among investors [13][14]. Group 4: Strategic Dependence - Seres' heavy reliance on its partnership with Huawei has created strategic vulnerabilities, as the company has not developed its own core competencies [21][24]. - The shift in market perception from being a unique partner of Huawei to one among many competitors has diminished its valuation appeal [25][28]. - The uncertainty surrounding the future of the partnership with Huawei has led to increased risk premiums in the company's valuation [33]. Group 5: Market Dynamics - The activation of the "green shoe" mechanism by underwriters to stabilize the stock price indicated a lack of confidence in the stock's ability to maintain its initial price without intervention [34][36]. - The Hong Kong market's rationality and focus on performance metrics mean that any slowdown in growth or profitability will be harshly penalized [36][40]. - To regain market confidence, Seres must demonstrate a clear path to reducing its dependence on Huawei and improving its financial performance [38][40].