12月4日，美东时间周三，美国财政部长贝森特表示，无论美国最高法院就特朗普的关税做出何种裁决，特朗普政府仍能够推进其关税计划。 03 美联储主席人选将在明年公布 01 法院无法阻止特朗普关税 贝森特重申了他一个月前在最高法院听证会前所发表的言论。他在接受采访时，声称美国1962年《贸易法》中的几条规定赋予总统对进口关税的广泛 权力。 "我们可以利用第301条、第232条和第122条，来重建一套一模一样的关税体系。"他表示。 不过需要说明的是，贝森特口中可用于构建关税体系的301条款和122条款，实则源自1974年的《贸易法》，仅有232条款出自1962年《贸易扩张 法》。 当被问及特朗普政府是否必须永久性地实施这些措施时，贝森特回答说："必须永久性地实施。" 不过，贝森特提到的第122条规定的关税权力实际仅可延续至150天，而第301条和第232条在时间框架方面则没有给出明确说明。贝森特还援引了 《国际紧急经济权力法》，来说明该法案赋予了总统广泛的关税权力。 02 仍认为特朗普政府可以胜诉 一直以来，特朗普都将关税作为与美国贸易伙伴进行谈判的常用手段。此前他一度对几乎所有进入美国的进口商品都征收了关税，不过近 ...

Core Viewpoint - A global "copper rush" is driving copper prices to unprecedented heights, with concerns over potential U.S. tariffs exacerbating fears of a global supply crisis [1] Group 1: Price Movements - On December 3, copper prices reached a historic high of $11,540 per ton, with LME copper futures rising by 2.72% [1] - The surge in copper prices has positively impacted global mining stocks, exemplified by a more than 5% increase in Antofagasta's stock price [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The current copper market is experiencing a significant imbalance in supply and demand, with traders warning that copper is rapidly flowing to the U.S. to avoid potential tariff risks [2][3] - LME warehouse data indicates a net cancellation of 50,725 tons of copper, leading to the lowest registered warehouse quantity since July at 105,275 tons [2] Group 3: Market Reactions and Trends - The surge in demand for physical copper from Asian warehouses suggests traders are eager to extract copper to capitalize on price differences, with LME spot copper premiums reaching $86 per ton, the highest since mid-October [3] - The tariff threats proposed by former U.S. President Trump have significantly influenced the physical market, driving U.S. copper futures prices higher and increasing shipments to U.S. ports [3] Group 4: Future Outlook - Major metal traders predict that these trade dynamics could lead to severe global supply tightness in Q1 of the following year, with forecasts suggesting copper prices may exceed historical highs [4] - The copper market is facing supply challenges due to mine shutdowns in regions like Chile and Indonesia, with companies like Ivanhoe Mines and Glencore lowering their production forecasts [4] - Analysts maintain an optimistic outlook for copper prices, with expectations that they could rise to $12,000 per ton amid both fundamental and financial drivers [4]

Core Insights - Pharmaceutical stocks experienced an overall gain on Friday, indicating a positive market reaction to recent developments in the sector [1] Group 1: Market Reaction - Traders appeared to shrug off or even cheer President Donald Trump's new tariff plan for drugmakers, suggesting a favorable sentiment towards the pharmaceutical industry despite potential regulatory changes [1]

Core Viewpoint - Despite dissatisfaction with President Trump's tax reform and tariff plans, a positive outlook on the economy is solidifying his political standing [1] Group 1 - The Wall Street Journal survey indicates a growing optimism about the economy among the public [1] - The political implications of economic perceptions are significant for Trump's administration [1] - Public sentiment towards economic policies remains mixed, yet overall economic confidence is rising [1]

Core Viewpoint - The White House assistant Blair emphasized that the tariff plan is transparent and that funds are flowing into the United States [1] Group 1 - The tariff plan is designed to be clear and understandable [1] - The implementation of the tariff plan is resulting in increased financial inflow to the U.S. [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Becerra, commented on Trump's tariff plan, noting that market reactions have been relatively calm [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Mexican President, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, has announced that Mexico is also developing a tariff plan to address economic challenges and protect local industries [1] Group 1 - The tariff plan aims to support domestic production and reduce reliance on imports [1] - The initiative is part of a broader strategy to enhance economic sovereignty and competitiveness in the region [1] - The announcement reflects a growing trend among countries to implement protective measures in response to global economic pressures [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. tariff plan is seen as suppressive to bilateral trade, necessitating balanced and comprehensive countermeasures from the EU [1] Group 1 - The EU's Šefčovič emphasizes the need for a well-rounded response to the U.S. tariff strategy [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Vice President of the European Commission, Šefčovič, stated that the U.S. tariff plan acts as an obstacle to trade between both parties [1] Group 1 - The U.S. tariff plan is perceived as a hindrance to trade relations [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - Gold: Trump's latest tariff plan led to the selling of US stocks and bonds. With the early extension of the suspension period, the gold price first rose and then fell. The impact of tariffs will decline again, and the gold price is expected to be volatile. The premium of Shanghai gold has converged to 2.3 yuan/gram. Although there have been recent news of additional tariffs in some regions, the gold price has shown limited reaction [4]. - Silver: Trump's latest tariff plan also affected silver. With the extension of the tariff suspension period, the silver price oscillated and closed down. It has returned to following the gold price, and the impact of tariffs has decreased. The silver price is expected to be weakly volatile. The premium of Shanghai silver remains at around 420 yuan/kg [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: US stocks and bonds were sold due to Trump's tariff plan. The US three major stock indexes closed down across the board, European major stock indexes had mixed closing results, US bond yields rose collectively (the 10 - year US bond yield rose 3.56 basis points to 4.377%), the US dollar index rose 0.58% to 97.55, the offshore RMB depreciated against the US dollar to 7.1796, and COMEX gold futures rose 0.10% to $3346.40 per ounce. The gold basis was -4.4 (spot at a discount to futures), gold futures warehouse receipts increased by 3000 kg to 21456 kg, the 20 - day moving average was downward with the K - line below it, and the main net long position increased [4]. - **Silver**: Similar to gold, the silver price oscillated and closed down. COMEX silver futures fell 0.39% to $36.94 per ounce. The silver basis was -16 (spot at a discount to futures), the Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts decreased by 9051 kg to 1330695 kg, the 20 - day moving average was downward with the K - line above it, and the main net long position decreased [5]. 3.2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: The logic is that after Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change. The inflation expectation has shifted to an economic recession expectation, making it difficult for the gold price to fall. The verification between the expected and actual policies of the new US government will continue, and the sentiment for the gold price is high, still prone to rise and hard to fall [9]. - **Silver**: Silver still mainly follows the gold price. The concern about tariffs has a stronger impact on the silver price, and there is a risk of an enlarged increase. Factors such as global turmoil, rising US stagflation expectations, tense situations in Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East, and tariff concerns are positive for silver. On the other hand, factors like the end of interest rate cuts, improved economic expectations, insufficient European fiscal expansion, and the end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict are negative for silver [12][13]. 3.3. Today's Focus - 07:50: Japan's May trade balance - 12:30: The Reserve Bank of Australia announces the interest rate decision - 13:30: RBA Governor Bullock holds a monetary policy press conference - Time TBD: EU finance ministers' meeting, with ECB Vice - President Guindos participating - 18:00: US June NFIB Small Business Optimism Index - 22:00: ECB Governing Council member and Bundesbank President Nagel speaks - 03:00 (next day): US May consumer credit [14] 3.4. Fundamental Data - **Gold and Silver Price Movements**: Various gold and silver futures and spot prices, as well as the US dollar index, showed different changes. For example, Shanghai gold 2510 fell 0.54%, Shanghai silver 2508 fell 0.50%, etc. [15]. - **Price Spreads**: The spreads between different gold and silver contracts and the relationship between domestic and foreign spot prices are presented through charts [16][20]. - **Market Sentiment Indicators**: The 10 - year US bond yield rose 3.56 basis points to 4.377%, and the TIPS inflation expectation and other related data are shown [24]. 3.5. Position Data - **Gold**: The long positions of the top 20 in Shanghai gold increased by 152 (0.08%) to 200,758, short positions increased by 181 (0.29%) to 62,978, and the net position decreased by 29 (-0.02%) to 137,780 [26][27]. - **Silver**: The long positions of the top 20 in Shanghai silver decreased by 5,018 (-1.25%) to 397,792, short positions decreased by 5,409 (-1.65%) to 321,461, and the net position increased by 391 (0.51%) to 76,331 [28][29]. - **ETF Positions**: Gold ETF positions decreased slightly, while silver ETF positions oscillated and were higher than the same period in the past two years [31][34]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: Shanghai gold warehouse receipts continued to increase, COMEX gold warehouse receipts continued to decrease but remained at a high level, Shanghai silver warehouse receipts changed to an increase and were higher than last year, and COMEX silver warehouse receipts decreased slightly [35][36][38].