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散户百万一夜归零,稳定币成了收割机?你正在替美国还债
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-03 07:48
Core Insights - The recent turmoil in the stablecoin market is primarily driven by regulatory changes, particularly the Hong Kong Stablecoin Regulation effective from August 1, 2025, which limits retail trading to licensed institutions, resulting in a significant market crash [1][3] - The U.S. GENIUS Act mandates that for every dollar of stablecoin issued, $1 must be backed by short-term U.S. Treasury bonds, forcing major issuers like Tether to acquire substantial amounts of U.S. debt [3] - The capital-driven nature of the market has led to significant stock price volatility, with companies like Lakala and Circle experiencing drastic fluctuations in their stock values due to regulatory news and insider trading activities [4][5] Regulatory Impact - The Hong Kong regulation has drastically reduced the number of licensed stablecoin issuers from 46 to just 5, leading to a collapse in the digital currency sector, with stocks like Yao Cai Securities plummeting by 20% [1] - The U.S. GENIUS Act has compelled Tether to purchase $90.8 billion in U.S. Treasury bonds, making it the 19th largest creditor to the U.S. government [3] - The EU's MiCA regulation has also forced non-compliant stablecoins out of the market, further tightening the regulatory landscape [3] Market Dynamics - The average daily transaction volume of global stablecoins is $27.6 trillion, with a total market capitalization of $2.4 trillion, but Tether's reserves are heavily reliant on U.S. debt, which poses a risk in case of a market downturn [5] - The volatility in stock prices has been exacerbated by insider trading, with companies like Lenovo and Jinke Technology profiting from timely stock sales amidst regulatory announcements [4] - The market is characterized by a "death spiral" risk, where rising U.S. Treasury yields could trigger a sell-off of stablecoins, leading to a liquidity crisis [5] Investor Sentiment - Investor confidence has been severely shaken, as evidenced by the drastic price drops in stocks related to digital currencies, with some companies experiencing losses of up to 69% in profits [7] - The perception of digital currencies as a future asset class is being challenged by the current market realities, leading to widespread disillusionment among retail investors [7] - The situation has created a stark contrast between the potential of digital currencies and the immediate risks posed by regulatory changes and market manipulation [7]
警惕稳定币背后的“虚火”
近期,市场对稳定币的关注度已上升至火热局面。稍有消息刺激,便引起相关公司股价暴涨,而港股上 市公司更是动辄几十倍上涨,已严重脱离了公司的基本面。 值得一提的是,稳定币本质是锚定资产的信用延伸,价格受锚定资产波动影响,同时还存在脱锚风险。 因此,稳定币的价值并非绝对稳定,市场对稳定币的认知可能存在一定误区。 当前,各国对稳定币的态度不一。有分析人士指出,伴随监管逐步介入,一些试图绕过美元制裁的特殊 地区,原本用于稳定币的交易,可能面临更严格的限制,甚至被禁用。此外,若稳定币创新速度快,监 管政策的制定和实施或难以对所有新型风险和问题及时有效应对。 整体而言,凭借低成本、实时结算和全天候可用等显著优势,稳定币或成为新一代跨境支付基础设施。 但市场投资者也需要警惕稳定币发展过程中可能存在的风险,包括行业可能面临的监管政策风险、发展 过程中可能出现的技术性风险等。 今年6月,美国参议院高票通过《指导与建立美国稳定币国家创新法案》,众议院也正快马加鞭推动相 关立法进程。法案规定,稳定币发行人的储备资金只能投向美元现金、活期存款、93天以内的美债、7 天以内的美债回购和逆回购协议等。为提高储备透明度、提升公众信心,发行人 ...
美债最大“接盘侠”诞生,有望买走1.5万亿,但不是英国、日本
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-08 04:16
Group 1 - The article discusses the decline of U.S. Treasury bonds, which were once considered the safest asset globally, as the Federal Reserve transitions from the largest holder to the largest seller of these bonds [1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to reduce its holdings by $1.5 trillion by 2025, with the 10-year Treasury yield surpassing 5%, leading to unsustainable financing costs for the Treasury [1] - Traditional buyers like China and Japan are reducing their purchases, while the U.S. fiscal deficit is projected to exceed $2.1 trillion in 2024, with net borrowing close to $3.7 trillion [1] Group 2 - Bitcoin has gained traction as a potential alternative asset, with the SEC approving multiple Bitcoin spot ETFs, leading to a significant increase in Bitcoin holdings and market capitalization [3] - Despite its popularity, Bitcoin lacks the stability required to replace U.S. Treasury bonds, as it is viewed as a risk asset rather than a stable investment [5] Group 3 - Stablecoins are being considered as potential buyers of U.S. Treasury bonds, with the market size growing from under $30 billion to $250 billion in three years, and projections suggesting it could reach $2 trillion by 2028 [7] - The U.S. government plans to introduce the GENIUS Act to provide a regulatory framework for stablecoins, aiming to integrate them as official buyers of Treasury bonds [7] Group 4 - The operational nature of stablecoins poses risks, as they are managed by profit-driven companies rather than financial institutions, leading to concerns about their stability and the potential for user asset loss in case of company failure [9] - The reliance on market confidence for stablecoin redemption raises significant concerns, as demonstrated by a recent incident where USDC's market cap dropped by $2.3 billion in 48 hours due to fears of insufficient reserves [9] Group 5 - The U.S. Treasury is pressuring the Federal Reserve to provide liquidity support, indicating a shift in stablecoins from private buyers to quasi-official channels [10] - The outflow of deposits from U.S. banks to crypto accounts has reached $680 billion, impacting the lending capacity of banks, particularly in real estate and small business loans [10] Group 6 - The emergence of stablecoins is not limited to the U.S., with other countries exploring their own versions, which could challenge the dominance of U.S. stablecoins and impact the demand for U.S. Treasury bonds [12] - The purchasing dynamics of Treasury bonds are changing, with stablecoins facilitating transactions through protocols that allow users to convert stablecoins into short-term Treasury bonds [15] Group 7 - The risks associated with stablecoins highlight the need for regulatory measures similar to those for banks, as the financial system's stability could be jeopardized if these digital assets fail [17]