6.5%，上升概率52%。 我哋【港股播報】中都有點評港交所，1月7日港交所的走勢還挺不錯的，和恆指有點不一樣，港交所走勢相對偏強一些。能看到它繼續處於高 位，當然股價有漲有跌很正常，但起碼暫時收盤價是站在保利加通道的頂部之上，可以這麼說，穩穩地站在430元左右的位置。投資者對港交所 始終偏向樂觀。如果看阻力位的話，440元可能還需要再等等，因為目前短線的阻力位大概在438元。如果能突破438元，那確實有機會漲到440 元。從技術信號來看，目前還是以"賣出"信號為主，11個賣出信號，6個買入信號。所以港交所短線走勢有可能會稍微偏淡，這一點投資者要留 意。 正股的波動向來會快速傳導至相關窩輪，我們先回顧近期港交所窩輪的表現。在2026年1月5日港交所出現階段性上漲後，相關窩輪隨即迎來強勢反應，其中 瑞銀牛證（64102）兩日後升幅達27%，法興牛證（57689）兩日後升幅24%，摩利認購證（22028）兩日後升幅23%，即便是漲幅相對較低的瑞銀認購證 （23422），兩日後升幅也有17%，而同期港交所正股的兩日升幅僅為2.38%，窩輪的槓桿效應可謂十分明顯。 【窩輪透視】港交所窩輪2日漲27%！原來是這兩個指標 ...

回顧近期熱門窩輪表現，2025年12月17日上線的美團兩只牛證表現突出。其中摩根大通牛證（54408）在兩日後漲幅達9%，瑞銀牛證（56384）兩日後漲幅 更高達10%，而同期美團正股兩日累計上漲1.38%。可見這兩只牛證憑藉較高的Delta敏感度，實現了比正股更強的彈性放大，充分體現出窩輪產品在正股小 幅波動下的杠杆效應。 結合當前美團股價走勢及技術面狀態，我們精選4只高性價比窩輪及牛熊證標的供投資者參考。 認購證方面，國泰君安認購證（19998）擁有10倍杠杆，行使價106.98元 ，其溢價及引伸波幅均為同類最低，成本效率優勢明顯，適合追求低成本佈局的投 資者；摩根士丹利認購證（20964）杠杆9.5倍，行使價106.78元 ，溢價相對較低，流動性表現穩定，風險與彈性相對平衡。 【窩輪透視】美團中立信號下，選擇高杠杆還是低溢價窩輪更穩？ 上周五（19日）美團（03690）全日收報102.7元 ，單日上漲1.28%，成交額達52.26億元 。技術面方面，整體技術指標綜合信號為"中立"，信號強度9。從具 體指標來看，相對強弱指數（RSI）為58，處於中性區間；威廉指標呈現超買狀態，但信號為中立；MACD、布林 ...

李寧（02331）股價近期呈現明確的向上突破態勢。截至14点30分，股價收報18.7元，大漲5.77%，成交額顯著放大至4.30億元。技術指標發出複雜但偏積極 的信號：多項趨勢指標如MACD、保力加通道及牛熊力量指標均給出買入信號，與股價強勢突破所有短期主要均線（10天線17.28元，30天線17.42元，60天 線17.34元）形成共振。然而，部分震盪指標如CCI及隨機震盪指標已進入超買區間，相對強弱指數（RSI）升至56，提示短線可能面臨技術性調整壓力。整 體上升概率為54%，配合高達10.8%的5日振幅，顯示市場波動劇烈，交投情緒極為活躍。 關鍵的技術位為交易提供了清晰的框架。隨著股價突破，新的關鍵支持區域已上移至17.4元（支持1） 與17.2元（支持2），這與突破前的均線密集區重合， 預計將成為重要的回調支撐。上方目標則聚焦於19.4元（阻力1） 及19.9元（阻力2）。市場普遍認為，股價在完成「收窄三角」形態向上突破後，短期目標 區間可看至19至20元。預計股價將在17.4元至19.4元的區間內震盪上行，以消化獲利盤並積蓄動能。 | | | 市場催化劑與投資者觀點：基本面動能與技術預期共振 推動本 ...

Group 1: Horizon Robotics (09660) - Horizon Robotics has experienced a significant decline, with a recent high of 11.32 HKD and a low of 8.03 HKD, closing at 8.33 HKD today. Investors remain optimistic about the stock's potential to break through 11.32 HKD [1] - Currently, there are no related warrants available in the market, only two call options with substantial out-of-the-money margins. Investors may need to wait for more closely priced products to be issued [1] - If investors are optimistic about the stock, they should consider monitoring the stock itself rather than relying on warrants, which may decline significantly if the stock does not rise or remains stagnant [1] Group 2: China Southern Airlines (01055) - China Southern Airlines has shown a strong upward trend, but trading volume has started to weaken, indicating potential fatigue in the stock's performance [2] - Investors are still optimistic, believing the stock could reach 6 HKD or even 6.3 HKD, although the immediate resistance level is around 5.43 HKD [2] - There are limited warrant products available for this stock, with one at an exercise price of 4.88 HKD and another upcoming at 6.66 HKD, making investor choices quite limited [4] Group 3: GCL-Poly Energy (03800) - GCL-Poly Energy's stock price has not performed well, dropping to a low of 1.25 HKD and closing at 1.32 HKD, with significant trading volume during the decline [4] - Despite the downturn, investors remain confident that the stock could rebound above 1.5 HKD, needing to first break the resistance at 1.45 HKD [4] - There are several warrant options available, with some having favorable terms, including three products expiring in March with exercise prices around 1.68 HKD to 1.69 HKD [7] Group 4: China Duty Free Group (01880) - China Duty Free Group's stock has shown volatility, recently reaching a high before closing at 78.9 HKD, with some investors still seeing potential for upward movement [8] - There are multiple warrant options available at exercise prices around 79 HKD and 80 HKD, with one product showing a leverage advantage of 3.5 times and a low implied volatility of 64.8% [8] - The market for warrants related to this stock is competitive, with various products available, indicating a healthy interest from issuers despite the stock being less frequently mentioned [8]

Core Viewpoint - Ping An Insurance's stock is currently experiencing a state of indecision, with technical indicators showing mixed signals, suggesting potential for both upward and downward movements in the near term [1][3]. Technical Analysis - As of October 28, Ping An's stock closed at HKD 56, a slight increase of 0.63%, with a trading volume of HKD 1.339 billion. On October 29, the stock rose to HKD 56.4, up 0.71%, with a volume of 11.78 million shares [1]. - The stock is at a critical technical point, with support at HKD 54.3 and significant support at HKD 52.8. Resistance is noted at HKD 56.9, and a breakout above this level could lead to a target of HKD 59.2 [3]. - Various oscillators are showing signs of strengthening, with MACD and Bollinger Bands indicating buy signals, while the RSI remains stable at 60, indicating accumulating momentum. However, moving averages still show weakness, highlighting a divergence in signals [1][3]. Derivative Products Performance - Recent performance of derivative products linked to Ping An has been notable, with UBS's bull certificate (61834) yielding a 10% return over two days despite a 0.81% rise in the underlying stock. HSBC's bull certificate (59775) also saw an 8% increase during the same period [4]. - In terms of call options, UBS's call option (21408) offers a leverage of 10.5 times with a strike price of HKD 66.71, while Bank of China’s call option (17070) provides a leverage of 10.1 times, both featuring low premiums [7]. Market Outlook - The current volatility of Ping An's stock is relatively mild, with a 5-day volatility of only 3.4%, providing a stable trading environment for investors. Despite mixed technical indicators, active trading suggests ongoing interest from capital [12].

Group 1: Hang Seng Index - The Hang Seng Index opened high but closed lower, with investors taking profits and waiting for a buying opportunity around 26,300-26,400 [1] - The index reached a high of 27,058 points but closed at 26,544 points, signaling a "sell" [1] - Support levels are identified at 25,859 points and 25,300 points, while resistance is at 27,300 points [1] Group 2: HSBC Holdings - Investors view interest rate cuts as beneficial for HSBC, with expectations for the stock to rise to 110 HKD [3] - Some investors anticipate a decline to the range of 96-100 HKD, opting for put options [3] Group 3: Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing - The stock experienced a significant drop, closing at 444 HKD, which is within the Bollinger Band's middle line [5] - Short-term technical signals suggest a "buy" with resistance levels at 459 HKD and 470 HKD [5] - For those considering entry at lower levels, support is noted at 436 HKD and 428 HKD [5] Group 4: Ping An Insurance - The stock is trading within a sideways range, with a closing price of 54.25 HKD, near the lower boundary of the Bollinger Band [8] - Technical signals are neutral, suggesting a wait-and-see approach [8] - Support levels are at 52.7 HKD and 51 HKD, with options available at a strike price of 43.83 HKD [8] Group 5: Baidu Group - Baidu's stock closed at 132.8 HKD, above the upper boundary of the Bollinger Band, with a high of 38.4 HKD during the day [11] - The data signal indicates a "sell," with support levels at 114.2 HKD and 103.2 HKD [11] - Investors holding bear certificates have a safe recovery price of 150 HKD, with resistance levels at 140 HKD and 162 HKD [11]

Core Viewpoint - Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited (CATL) has shown signs of recovery in trading activity, with an increase in new order volume and breakthroughs in energy storage business, although its stock price remains affected by overall volatility in the new energy sector [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - CATL's stock closed at 422 HKD, up 1.05% with a trading volume of 601 million HKD, indicating a slight recovery compared to previous activity [1] - Technical indicators suggest a "sell" signal with a strength of 9, indicating medium to long-term pressure on the stock's performance [2] - The first support level is at 410 HKD, with a deeper support at 396 HKD; the first resistance level is at 434 HKD, followed by 448 HKD [2] Group 2: Investment Products - For investors optimistic about CATL's potential to break through resistance levels, HSBC's call warrant (18321) is noteworthy with a leverage of 7.4 times and an exercise price of 485 HKD [7] - Another option is the Bank of China call warrant (17002) with a leverage of 9.7 times and an exercise price of 489.08 HKD, offering advantages in cost control [7] - The recent performance of CATL's products shows a 3.39% increase two days after a previous rise, highlighting the leverage effect of warrants during stock price increases [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current trading situation of Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (HKEX), highlighting investor sentiment and technical analysis signals indicating a potential buying opportunity while also noting the risks of profit-taking due to overbought conditions [1][3]. Technical Analysis - The current stock price of HKEX is reported at 440.8 HKD, with a buy signal indicated by various technical indicators, including multiple moving averages and MACD [1]. - Key support levels are identified at 427 HKD and 413 HKD, while resistance levels are at 451 HKD and 468 HKD [1]. - The stock has shown a 5-day volatility of 4.7%, suggesting a high level of short-term price fluctuation [1]. Market Sentiment - Investors are considering entering the market at around 430 HKD, which is close to the first support level [1]. - There is a mixed sentiment among investors regarding whether to take advantage of potential price adjustments or wait for clearer signals [1]. Derivative Products Performance - Recent performance of structured products, such as the Societe Generale bull certificates (59685 and 57702), has been strong, with gains of 20% and 22% respectively, outperforming the underlying stock's 1.15% increase [1]. - The article highlights the attractiveness of certain call options with high leverage, suitable for investors optimistic about HKEX breaking through resistance levels [3]. Investment Tools - Notable call options include JPMorgan's call option (16572) with a leverage of 8.5 and a strike price of 483.88 HKD, and UBS's call option (16698) with a leverage of 9.1 and a strike price of 484.08 HKD [3]. - For bearish investors, HSBC's put option (57040) offers a high leverage of 11.3 with a strike price of 475 HKD, while UBS's put option (60541) has a lower premium and a leverage of 14 [6].

Core Viewpoint - Ping An Insurance (02318) shows stable performance with its stock price approaching key resistance levels, indicating potential upward movement in the near term [1][3]. Technical Analysis - The 10-day moving average (47.04 HKD) has crossed above the 30-day moving average (45.33 HKD), signaling a bullish trend. The MACD indicator has issued a buy signal, although momentum appears moderate. The RSI is at a neutral level of 55, suggesting further upside potential [3]. - Key support levels are identified at 44.9 HKD (Support 1) and 44 HKD (Support 2), while resistance levels are at 48.4 HKD (Resistance 1) and 49.4 HKD (Resistance 2) [3]. Derivative Products Performance - On May 19, Ping An's related derivatives performed well, with the underlying stock rising by 2.19%. Notably, the Societe Generale call option (15999) surged by 16%, and the JPMorgan bull certificate (53834) increased by 15%, outperforming the underlying stock [4]. - Current options to consider include Citigroup call option (13225) with a strike price of 49.93 HKD, offering a leverage of 13.4 times, and Morgan Stanley call option (15639) with similar leverage and favorable implied volatility [5]. Bull and Bear Certificates Analysis - For bull certificates, JPMorgan's bull certificate (65655) offers a leverage of 7.2 times with a redemption price of 40.2 HKD, providing about a 14% safety margin from the current price. UBS's bull certificate (64267) offers 7 times leverage with a redemption price of 40 HKD [8]. - In the bear certificate category, Societe Generale's bear certificate (60435) and JPMorgan's bear certificate (64018) provide high leverage of 10.4 times, with redemption prices of 50.5 HKD and 50 HKD, respectively, offering a buffer of approximately 7-8% from the current price [8].