1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall outlook for the粕类 market is near - strong and far - weak. Domestic rumors of customs controlling soybean imports are positive for near - term contracts and long - short spreads. The M05 contract is expected to be relatively weak. The trading strategy suggests a range - bound trend for single - sided trading and a long M3 - short M5 spread for arbitrage. Attention should be paid to policies and weather conditions [5]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: It is bullish. The predicted 25/26 Brazilian new - crop soybean production is 177.6 million tons. As of December 20, the Brazilian soybean sowing rate was 97.6%. As of December 17, the Argentine soybean sowing progress was 67.3%. There are no obvious short - term weather problems. In January, domestic soybean and soybean meal are expected to seasonally reduce inventory. Customs are rumored to strictly control soybean imports until the end of May, increasing concerns about domestic soybean meal supply before May next year. Under the current China - Canada trade policy, the supply of imported rapeseed meal and rapeseed in China is expected to decrease, while the supply of Australian rapeseed is expected to increase. The global rapeseed production in 2025/26 is expected to have a restorative increase [5]. - **Demand**: The demand for soybean meal is neutral, and that for rapeseed meal is bearish. In the short term, the high pig inventory is expected to be maintained, supporting feed demand, but the current breeding profit is in the red, and national policies tend to control pig inventory and weight, which may affect long - term supply. The cost - effectiveness of soybean meal has decreased. Recently, the downstream trading of soybean meal was normal, and the pick - up performance was good, while the downstream trading and pick - up of rapeseed meal were cautious [5]. - **Inventory**: It is slightly bullish. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at a high level in the same period of history, the reduction of soybean meal inventory is slow, and the spot supply pressure is still large, but it is expected to accelerate inventory reduction in January. This week, the inventory days of soybean meal in feed enterprises increased. The domestic rapeseed meal inventory has been continuously decreasing [5]. - **Basis/Spread**: It is neutral [5]. - **Profit**: It is bearish. The new - crop soybean purchase and crushing profit in China is good, and the crushing profit of Canadian rapeseed is also good [5]. - **Valuation**: It is neutral. From the perspective of crushing profit, the soybean meal futures price is at a relatively high valuation; from the perspective of absolute price, it is at a relatively low valuation [5]. - **Macro and Policy**: It is bullish. There are rumors in China that the customs held a meeting to strictly control soybean imports until the end of the month [5]. - **Investment Viewpoint**: It is bullish for near - term contracts. Rumors of customs controlling soybean imports are positive for near - term contracts and long - short spreads. Pay attention to customs policy dynamics. US soybean exports are weak, there is no obvious hype driver for South American weather, and the Brazilian premium is expected to be under pressure in the future. The M05 contract is expected to be relatively weak, showing an overall pattern of near - strong and far - weak [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - sided trading is expected to be range - bound, and the arbitrage strategy is to go long M3 and short M5. Risks to focus on include policies and weather [5]. 3.2 Fundamental Supply - Demand Data of 粕类 - **Inventory - to - Consumption Ratio**: In December, the US soybean inventory - to - consumption ratio for the 25/26 season remained unchanged, and the global soybean inventory - to - consumption ratio increased. The global rapeseed inventory - to - consumption ratio also increased [31][38]. - **Soybean Processing and Export**: The US soybean domestic crushing profit has declined, the NOPA soybean crushing volume and USDA monthly soybean crushing volume are presented, and the US soybean export sales progress is slow [48][55][58]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Import and Price**: The Brazilian soybean planting progress, soybean CNF premium, and import soybean futures margin are shown. The Canadian rapeseed CFR price and import crushing profit are also provided, along with the US dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate [64][66][69]. - **Domestic Inventory and Trading Volume**: Domestic soybean, soybean meal, rapeseed, and rapeseed meal inventories are at high levels, and the feed enterprise inventory has increased. The trading volume of soybean meal is normal, and the pick - up performance is good, while the trading volume and pick - up of rapeseed meal are cautious. The feed monthly output, pig, chicken, and egg chicken breeding profits, and related inventory data are also presented [76][93][106].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view of the report is "oscillation", and the trading strategy is "unilateral: oscillation; arbitrage: M3 - M5 positive spread" [5] Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the influencing factors of the粕类 market from multiple aspects including supply, demand, inventory, etc. It believes that the market will be in an oscillatory state. The supply side has both positive and negative factors, the demand side shows different trends for豆粕 and菜粕, and the inventory situation is complex. The investment view is oscillatory, and the trading strategy is unilateral oscillation and M3 - M5 positive spread arbitrage [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: USDA's current forecast for 2025/26 US soybean yield is 53 bushels per acre, with an ending inventory of 290 million bushels (corresponding to a stock - to - consumption ratio of 6.7%). Future US soybean yield may be further reduced due to less rainfall in the producing areas from August to September. CONAB predicts that Brazil's new - crop soybean production in 25/26 will reach 177.6 million tons. As of November 29, Brazil's soybean sowing rate was 86%. As of November 26, Argentina's 2025/26 soybean sowing progress reached 36%. In the next two weeks, the precipitation in Brazil's producing areas is expected to improve, and the dry weather in Argentina is conducive to sowing. From December to January, domestic soybean and豆粕 inventories are expected to seasonally decline, and there is uncertainty in domestic豆粕 supply in the first quarter of next year. Under the current China - Canada trade policy, the supply of imported菜粕 and rapeseed in China is expected to decline, and the 2025/26 global rapeseed production is expected to increase [5] - **Demand**: In the short term, livestock and poultry are expected to maintain a high inventory, supporting feed demand. However, the current breeding profit is in a loss state, and national policies tend to control pig inventory and weight, which may affect long - term supply.豆粕 has relatively high cost - performance. Recently, the downstream trading of豆粕 is normal, and the delivery performance is good, while the downstream trading and delivery of菜粕 are cautious [5] - **Inventory**: Domestic soybean and豆粕 inventories are at a high level in the same period of history, the inventory reduction of豆粕 is slow, and the spot supply pressure is still large, but it is expected to accelerate inventory reduction from December to January. This week, the inventory days of feed enterprises'豆粕 increased slightly. Domestic菜粕 inventory is continuously decreasing [5] - **Basis/Spread**: The basis is neutral [5] - **Profit**: The domestic new - crop soybean purchase and crushing profit is good, and the Canadian rapeseed crushing profit is also good [5] - **Valuation**: From the perspective of basis, the recent price of豆粕 futures is at a neutral - to - high valuation position [5] - **Macro and Policy**: China and the US have reached a soybean purchase agreement, and China has started to purchase US soybeans, but the quantity and time of purchases are uncertain, which provides support for the US market. The domestic market is expected to be in short - term oscillation, and attention should be paid to the weather in South America. If there are no obvious weather problems, the new - crop discount is expected to be under pressure from December to January under the expectation of a bumper harvest in Brazil, and M05 is expected to be weak. The spread between M03 and M05 is expected to be a positive spread, with the risk point being the domestic reserve release [5] PART TWO:粕类 Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - **Inventory - to - Consumption Ratio**: In November, the 25/26 US soybean stock - to - consumption ratio and the global soybean stock - to - consumption ratio decreased. The global rapeseed stock - to - consumption ratio also decreased [33][39] - **US Soybean**: The domestic crushing profit of US soybeans has declined, the NOPA soybean crushing volume and USDA US soybean monthly crushing volume have certain trends, and the US soybean export sales progress is slow [50][57][61] - **Brazilian Soybean**: The planting progress of Brazilian soybeans is presented, and the CNF premium of soybeans and the import soybean futures margin are shown [68][70] - **Canadian Rapeseed**: The CFR price of Canadian rapeseed and the import crushing profit of Canadian rapeseed are provided [72] - **Domestic Situation**: Domestic soybean and豆粕 inventories are at a high level, and the inventory of feed enterprises has increased slightly. The import volume of soybeans, rapeseed, and菜粕 in different months is presented, and the inventory of imported rapeseed and domestic主要地区菜粕 inventory are shown. The开机率 and crushing volume of major domestic oil mills, the trading and delivery of豆粕 and菜粕, the feed monthly output, the breeding profit of livestock and poultry, and the price and weight of pigs are also included [78][96][110]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - Under the current China - US policies, it is recommended to pay attention to the long - position opportunities at low prices for far - month contracts of meal products. The market is expected to be volatile, and it is advisable to go long on the M01 contract at low prices [3][4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Short - term bearish; the good - quality rate of US soybeans has risen to 70%, and the expected impact of future weather is limited. Under the pressure of concentrated arrivals of Brazilian soybeans, the domestic soybean crushing volume in August is expected to exceed 10 million tons, and the supply of meal products is expected to be abundant. The purchase of ships from October to January is slow, and there is an expectation of inventory reduction in the far - month under the current China - US trade policy. The supply of imported rapeseed meal and rapeseed in China is expected to decrease under the China - Canada trade policy. Medium - term bullish; domestic rapeseed meal is expected to see inventory reduction before September, and there is some uncertainty in supply after September [4]. - **Demand**: Bullish for soybean meal and bearish for rapeseed meal; short - term high inventory of pig and poultry breeding supports feed demand, but policy guidance may affect far - month pig supply. Soybean meal has high cost - performance and high提货 volume, while rapeseed meal is expected to maintain the rigid demand of the aquaculture industry. Some areas use wheat to replace corn, reducing the demand for protein. This week, the trading volume of soybean meal has increased, while that of rapeseed meal is relatively light [4]. - **Inventory**: Bearish; domestic soybean inventory has reached a high level, soybean meal is in the inventory accumulation cycle, the inventory days of feed enterprises' soybean meal have decreased, domestic rapeseed inventory has dropped to a low level, and rapeseed meal inventory is still at a high level with a slow inventory reduction speed [4]. - **Basis/Spread**: Bullish; the basis of soybean meal and rapeseed meal has strengthened [4]. - **Profit**: Neutral; the premium of Brazilian soybeans has strengthened, and the crushing profit has improved. The quotation of Canadian rapeseed has fallen, and the crushing profit is good [4]. - **Valuation**: Neutral; the futures prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are at a neutral valuation level [4]. - **Macro and Policy**: Bullish; the China - US talks in Sweden have not led to a substantial easing of the current soybean trade policy [4]. - **Investment View**: Volatile, go long at low prices; there is currently no weather premium in the US soybean market, and the US soybean price is under pressure due to the unchanged China - US trade policy, but the downside space is expected to be limited. The strong premium of Brazilian soybeans offsets the impact of the decline in the US soybean price on the import cost. There is an expectation of inventory reduction in the domestic far - month, and the downside space of the 01 contract is expected to be limited. It is recommended to go long at low prices [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, the market is expected to be volatile, and it is advisable to go long on the M01 contract at low prices. For arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Data of Meal Product Supply and Demand - **Inventory - to - Consumption Ratio**: In July, the inventory - to - consumption ratios of US soybeans and global soybeans in the 2025/26 season have been raised [30]. - **Sowing and Quality Rate**: The sowing rate and good - quality rate of US soybeans are presented in relevant charts [44]. - **Domestic Crushing and Export**: The domestic crushing profit of US soybeans has increased, and the export sales volume of US soybeans has risen [48][58]. - **Import and Cost**: The CNF premium of soybeans and the import cost of Canadian rapeseed are shown in relevant charts. The exchange rate between the US dollar and the Brazilian real is also presented [65][67][68]. - **Domestic Inventory and Trading Volume**: Domestic soybean inventory is at a high level, soybean meal is continuing to accumulate inventory, and the inventory days of feed enterprises have decreased. The trading volume of soybean meal has increased, and the提货 volume is at a high level, while the trading volume of rapeseed meal is relatively light [73][97]. - **Livestock and Poultry Breeding**: The breeding profits of pigs, broilers, and laying hens, as well as relevant inventory and price data, are presented in relevant charts. The price of pigs has declined [113][118][122][127].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives an investment view of "sideways movement, buy on dips for M01", suggesting that the domestic near - month purchases basically cover the demand, soymeal is in the inventory accumulation cycle, and the near - month basis is still expected to be under pressure. M09 is expected to move sideways, while M01 is recommended to be bought on dips based on the expected increase in import costs. Attention should be paid to Sino - US policies [4]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall situation of the粕类 market shows a pattern of "weak current situation and strong expectation". Multiple factors such as supply, demand, inventory, etc., have different impacts on the market. The supply is short - term bearish and medium - term bullish; the demand for soymeal is bullish and for rapeseed meal is bearish; the inventory is bearish; the basis/spread is bearish; the profit is neutral; the valuation is neutral; and the macro and policy factors are bearish [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 PART ONE: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Short - term bearish, medium - term bullish. This week, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans dropped to 68%, and there is expected dryness in Kansas in the next two weeks, which may be unfavorable for soybean growth, but the overall weather in other areas is normal and conducive to growth. Under the pressure of concentrated arrivals of Brazilian soybeans, the domestic soybean crushing volume in July and August is expected to exceed 10 million tons, and the inventory accumulation pressure of soymeal is expected to last until September. The shipping pace from October to January is slow. Due to Sino - Canadian trade policies, the supply of imported rapeseed meal and rapeseed in China is expected to shrink, and domestic rapeseed meal is expected to see inventory reduction before September, with supply uncertainty after September [4]. - **Demand**: Bullish for soymeal and bearish for rapeseed meal. In the short term, the high inventory of pigs and poultry is expected to support feed demand, but policies aim to control pig inventory and weight. Soymeal has high cost - effectiveness and high pick - up volume; rapeseed meal is expected to maintain rigid demand in the aquaculture industry, and the pick - up volume increased this week. In some areas, wheat substitutes for corn, reducing the demand for protein. This week, soymeal trading was normal, while rapeseed meal trading was relatively light [4]. - **Inventory**: Bearish. The domestic soybean inventory has reached a high level. Soymeal is in the inventory accumulation cycle, and the inventory days of feed enterprises' soymeal have increased. The domestic rapeseed inventory has declined to a low level, while the rapeseed meal inventory is still at a high level with a slow inventory reduction speed [4]. - **Basis/Spread**: Bearish. The soymeal basis is expected to be under pressure, and attention should be paid to the long spread between contracts 3 - 5. The rapeseed meal basis maintains low - level fluctuations [4]. - **Profit**: Neutral. The Brazilian premium is relatively firm, and the crushing profit fluctuates. The quoted price of Canadian rapeseed has decreased, and the crushing profit is good [4]. - **Valuation**: Neutral. The futures prices of soymeal and rapeseed meal are at a neutral valuation position [4]. - **Macro and Policy**: Bearish. National policies aim to control pig inventory and weight and promote the substitution of soymeal, which raises concerns about demand [4]. - **Investment View and Trading Strategy**: The investment view is "sideways movement, buy on dips for M01". For the trading strategy, the single - side operation is to move sideways and buy M01 on dips, and for arbitrage, it is to wait and see. Risks to be concerned about include policies and weather [4]. 3.2 PART TWO: Fundamental Supply - and - Demand Data of Meal Products - **Inventory - to - Consumption Ratio**: In July, the inventory - to - consumption ratios of US soybeans and global soybeans in the 2025/26 season were raised. Data on the inventory - to - consumption ratios of soybeans in countries such as Brazil and Argentina, as well as rapeseeds globally and in Canada, are presented [30][32][38]. - **Production and Sales Data**: The US soybean domestic crushing profit has declined, the NOPA soybean crushing volume and USDA US soybean monthly crushing volume data are provided, and the US soybean export sales volume has decreased [49][55][58]. - **Price and Exchange Rate Data**: Data on soybean CNF premiums, import soybean futures gross profit, Canadian rapeseed CFR price, Canadian rapeseed import crushing profit, and the US dollar - to - real exchange rate are presented [66][68][71]. - **Import Data**: Data on monthly imports of soybeans, rapeseeds, and rapeseed meal in China are presented, showing that the soybean inventory is at a high level, soymeal continues to accumulate inventory, and the inventory days of feed enterprises have increased [73][75][76]. - **Trading and Consumption Data**: For soymeal, trading is normal and pick - up volume is high; for rapeseed meal, the trading volume and pick - up volume data are also provided. In addition, data on feed monthly output, pig and poultry breeding profits, and prices are presented [99][100][106].