投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 粕类：区间震荡，关注南美叙事 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | （1）USDA目前对2025/26 年度美豆的预估值为单产 53 蒲式耳 / 英亩，期末库存 2.9 亿蒲（对应库消比 6.7%）。后续美豆单产或因 8-9 月产区降雨偏少进 | | | | 一步下调；（2）根据CONAB数据，预测25/26巴西新作产量达到1.776亿吨。截至11月29日，巴西大豆播种率为86%，上周为78%，去年同期为90%，五年 | | 供给 | 偏空 | 均值为84.4%。根据BAGE，截至11月26日，阿根廷2025/26年度大豆进度达到36%，高于一周前的24.6%，但是同比落后9%，比五年均值落后1%。未来两 | | | | 周巴西产区降水预期有所改善，阿根廷天气偏干利于播种。（3）12-1月国内大豆、豆粕预期季节性去库；明年一季度国内豆粕供应存不确定性，需关注储 | ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral to bearish [4] - Sugar: Neutral [8] - Pulp: Neutral [11] 2. Core Views - Cotton: New cotton production increase expectations continue to suppress the market, and with the weak peak season in September and insufficient demand support, cotton prices still have the risk of further decline [4] - Sugar: The fundamental driving force is still downward, but there is cost support after continuous decline, so the short - term downside space may be limited [8] - Pulp: The current pulp fundamentals have insufficient improvement, the entire industry chain lacks positive driving forces, and short - term pulp prices may remain at the bottom and continue to fluctuate at a low level [11] 3. Summary by Industry Cotton - **Market News and Key Data** - Futures: As of Friday's close, the cotton 2601 contract was at 13,405 yuan/ton, down 315 yuan/ton, a 2.30% decline. Spot: Xinjiang cotton spot price was 14,995 yuan/ton, down 203 yuan/ton. The national weighted average spot price was 15,043 yuan/ton, down 240 yuan/ton [1] - Internationally, from September 12 - 18, US 2025/26 upland cotton net signings were 19,527 tons, a 54% decrease from the previous week. Shipments were 31,116 tons, a 14% increase from the previous week. As of September 23, about 49% of the US cotton - growing areas were affected by drought, an 8 - percentage - point increase from the previous week [1] - Domestically, in August 2025, China's cotton cloth exports were 563 million meters, a month - on - month increase of 8.27% and a year - on - year increase of 14.20%. From January - August 2025, exports were 4.2 billion meters, a year - on - year increase of 10.50% [2] - **Market Analysis** - Internationally, the September USDA report increased global cotton production and consumption, and reduced beginning and ending stocks. The US cotton supply - demand situation is expected to improve, but the short - term upside is limited due to slow export sales [3] - Domestically, Xinjiang cottonseed has started to be purchased. The expected panic buying has not occurred. The estimated Xinjiang production is about 7.3 million tons, and the market may face pressure during the peak listing period [3] Sugar - **Market News and Key Data** - Futures: As of Friday's close, the sugar 2601 contract was at 5,478 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton, a 0.31% increase. Spot: Guangxi Nanning's sugar spot price was 5,780 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; Yunnan Kunming's was 5,810 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton [5] - Internationally, it is estimated that the sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil in the first half of September was 45.92 million tons, a 6.8% year - on - year increase, and sugar production was 3.6 million tons, a 15% year - on - year increase [5][6] - Domestically, as of September 23, two sugar enterprises in Inner Mongolia have started production for the 2025/26 season, and the estimated sugar production is 650,000 - 680,000 tons, slightly increasing from the previous season [6] - **Market Analysis** - Internationally, Brazilian sugar production is increasing, and the short - term supply is strong, suppressing the raw sugar futures price. However, there is support from the ethanol price [7] - Domestically, sugar sales in August were poor, imports reached a new high, and beet sugar has started to be crushed, so the short - term supply is sufficient [7] Pulp - **Market News and Key Data** - Futures: As of Friday's close, the pulp 2511 contract was at 5,016 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton, a 0.04% decline. Spot: The average spot price of "Yinxing" softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,610 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton; the average price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,110 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton [9] - Internationally, in August 2025, European chemical pulp consumption was 700,800 tons, a 2.35% year - on - year increase, and inventory was 707,800 tons, an 11.34% year - on - year increase [9] - Domestically, the total pulp inventory in one region and eight ports decreased by 4.46% week - on - week, with an expanded decline [9] - **Market Analysis** - Supply: Overseas pulp mills' price increases, production cuts, and conversion plans have some positive impact, but the actual transactions in September were poor, and the global supply pressure remains. Domestic imports decreased in the third quarter, but port inventory remains high [10] - Demand: European and American pulp consumption has been weak. Domestic demand is the main factor suppressing pulp prices. Although there is new paper production capacity, effective demand is insufficient, and paper mills' purchasing is cautious [10]