2026 年度黑色策略报告 光期研究 2026 年度黑色策略报告 光大期货研究所 2025 年 12 月 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 2026 年度黑色策略报告 目 录 | 钢材：供需形势有望改善，钢价重心或有上移 3 | | --- | | 铁矿石: 供需宽松继续 聚焦非主流矿增量 28 | | 煤焦：供需格局仍偏宽松，价格底部震荡为主 52 | | 铁合金：供需宽松格局难改 73 | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 2 2026 年度黑色策略报告 钢材：供需形势有望改善，钢价重心或有上移 研究总监：邱跃成 年报摘要： ⚫ 粗钢产量压减继续实施，产量仍将小幅下降 2025 年 1-10 月我国粗钢产量 81787.4 万吨，同比减少 3319 万吨，降幅 3.9%。预计 2025 年 全年粗钢产量约 9.62 亿吨，同比减少 4309 万吨，降幅 4.3%。《钢铁行业稳增长工作方案（2025— 2026 年）》提出要求 2025-2026 年钢铁行业增加值年均增长 4%左右，严禁新增产能、实施产量压 减。工信部对《钢铁行 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - Currently, the supply and demand of iron ore are both increasing, and there is no obvious contradiction in the fundamentals. After the implementation of production cuts in Xinjiang, market sentiment has eased, but the momentum for continuous price increase is not strong. Under the guidance of a tense international trade environment and the domestic policy of "supporting the excellent and eliminating the inferior", the expectation of industry production cuts remains strong, and iron ore prices still face pressure. It is recommended to wait for the release of market pessimism and price stabilization, and then try to conduct buy-hedging or investment strategies for the far-month 2509 contract [13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情回顾与后市展望 - **Market Review**: On April 3, the main 2505 contract of iron ore futures fluctuated upward, opened higher, then fluctuated lower, and rebounded at the end of the session, closing at 791.5 yuan/ton, up 1.09% [7]. - **Spot Market and Technical Analysis**: On April 3, the main iron ore outer - disk quotes increased by 0.5 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the prices of main - grade iron ore at Qingdao Port rose by 5 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. Technically, the daily KDJ indicator of the iron ore 2505 contract continued to rise, and the red column of the daily MACD indicator of the iron ore 2505 contract has enlarged for two consecutive trading days [9]. - **Market Outlook**: Xinjiang's four steel mills announced production control and reduction, with a 10% daily reduction in crude steel production since March 24. After the implementation of production cuts in Xinjiang, market sentiment has improved. In terms of fundamentals, the shipments from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil remained high last week, and the arrivals at 45 ports decreased again. The supply of iron ore is in a loose state and is expected to remain so in the near future. The demand for the five major steel products and the daily average pig iron output continued to increase last week, but the growth rate slowed down, and the growth space of pig iron output is limited. The apparent demand for the five major steel products has been lower than that of the same period last year since last week. The inventory of steel mills decreased by 1 day to 21 days, and the port inventory is expected to gradually accumulate in the next half - month [10][12][13]. 3.2 Industry News - On April 2, the General Offices of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council issued the "Opinions on Improving the Price Governance Mechanism", proposing to deepen price market - oriented reforms, accelerate the construction of key - area markets, and improve the public - utility price mechanism that promotes sustainable development [14]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple charts related to the iron ore and steel industry, including the prices of main iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port, the spread between high - grade and low - grade ores and PB powder, the basis between iron ore spot and the May contract, the shipments from Brazil and Australia, the arrivals at 45 ports, the capacity utilization rate of domestic mines, the trading volume at main ports, the inventory available days of steel mills, the inventory of imported sintered powder ore, the port inventory and dispatch volume, the cost of pig iron without tax for sample steel mills, the blast furnace and electric furnace operating rates and capacity utilization rates, the national daily average pig iron output, the apparent consumption of the five major steel products, the weekly output of the five major steel products, and the inventory of the five major steel products in steel mills [20][21][23]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The improvement in steel demand cannot be reflected in the futures market due to strong expectations of domestic crude steel production cuts and frequent international trade disputes, which have a negative impact on steel prices in terms of exports and costs. - It is expected that the negative factors will be mostly digested by mid - to late April, after which the steel prices may start a rebound after a period of low - level fluctuations. It is advisable to consider buying and hedging or investing in the far - month 2510 contract after the market stabilizes in mid - to late April [11]. 3. Summary by Sections 3.1 Market Review - **Futures Market**: On April 2, the main contracts 2505 of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fluctuated strongly and closed slightly higher, while the main contract 2505 of stainless - steel futures opened higher and then oscillated. For example, the RB2505 contract closed at 3166 yuan/ton with a 0.32% increase, the HC2505 contract closed at 3352 yuan/ton with a 0.24% increase, and the SS2505 contract closed at 13560 yuan/ton with a 0.71% increase [5][6]. - **Spot Market**: The rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices showed different changes in various regions. For instance, the rebar price in Hangzhou increased by 20 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil price in Beijing increased by 20 yuan/ton. The daily KDJ indicators of the rebar 2505 and hot - rolled coil 2505 contracts showed different trends, and the daily MACD green bars of both contracts expanded [9][10]. 3.2 Industry News - In March, the construction steel market prices in Shandong first declined and then rebounded, with the mainstream rebar price dropping to 3360 yuan/ton by the end of the month, a 60 - yuan/ton decrease from the end of February. The market inventory continued to decline, with a continuous 4 - week decline after 3 weeks of increase in February [12]. - On April 2, the capacity utilization rate of 104 electric - arc furnace plants across the country was 38.8%, a 1 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week. The daily consumption of scrap steel in these plants was 22.19 million tons, a 3.1% decrease from the previous period. The number of operating electric - arc furnace plants decreased by 1 to 80, accounting for 76.9% [12]. - The total scrap steel inventory of 300 long - and short - process representative steel mills across the country on April 2 was 4.9317 billion tons, a 0.07% decrease from the previous day. The inventory turnover days remained at 8.2 days, and the daily consumption increased by 0.43% while the daily arrival decreased by 0.08% [12]. - In March, 17 blast furnaces were under maintenance, reducing the daily hot - metal output by 67,300 tons, and 29 blast furnaces resumed production, increasing the daily hot - metal output by 124,000 tons. In April, 3 blast furnaces are planned for maintenance, reducing the daily output by 20,000 tons, and 15 are planned to resume production, increasing the daily output by 78,700 tons. It is estimated that the daily hot - metal output of sample steel mills will reach 2.463 million tons on April 30, a 50,000 - ton increase from March [12]. - The US Secretary of Commerce is involved in the potential acquisition of US Steel by Nippon Steel. Ancora, a shareholder of US Steel, hopes to replace the board and appoint a CEO, planning to invest $6 - 7 billion. Nippon Steel has proposed an additional $7 billion investment to save the $14.1 - billion deal [13]. 3.3 Data Overview The report provides multiple data charts, including the social inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coil in major cities, the spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in major markets, the weekly output and steel mill inventory of five major steel products, the blast furnace and electric - arc furnace operating rates and capacity utilization rates, the national daily average hot - metal output, the apparent consumption of five major steel products, and the basis between Shanghai rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and the May contracts [16][18][20][27][30][34].