1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In 2026, the supply - demand situation of steel products is expected to improve, and the center of steel prices may move up. The production of crude steel will continue to decline slightly, while demand from infrastructure and manufacturing will pick up, and exports will remain at a high level. The cost of raw materials such as iron ore and coking coal is expected to be relatively loose, and the profits of the steel industry may be repaired [6][7][11][12]. - The supply - demand balance of iron ore will remain loose in 2026. Overseas mines (excluding India) are expected to increase production by 62 million tons, and domestic iron ore supply will also increase. However, the release of incremental supply from small and medium - sized mines depends on ore prices and project progress. Domestic pig iron production is expected to decline, and overseas demand will increase slightly. The operating range of ore prices is expected to be around $85 - 110 per ton [121][122][123]. - The supply - demand pattern of coking coal and coke will remain relatively loose in 2026. For coking coal, domestic production and imports are expected to increase, while demand may decrease. The operating range of coking coal futures prices is expected to be between 900 - 1400 yuan per ton. For coke, production is expected to decrease, exports may fall, and imports may rise. The operating range of coke futures prices is expected to be between 1300 - 1900 yuan per ton [228][229]. - In 2026, the oversupply situation of ferroalloys is difficult to change. For ferromanganese silicon, new production capacity is to be put into operation, but production may decline slightly, and demand will remain stable. For ferrosilicon, production capacity will remain in excess, costs will provide support, and upward drivers will be limited [322]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Steel Products 2025 Market Review - The domestic steel market in 2025 showed a trend of "lower price center and significantly narrowed volatility". Steel prices mainly fluctuated and declined throughout the year, except for a significant rebound from June to July. The overall demand was weak, with real estate being the main drag, while plate demand was stronger than long - product demand. Overseas demand was strong, and steel and billet exports reached new highs [14][23][38][40]. - Long - process steel mills had relatively good profits in 2025, mainly due to the sharp decline in coking coal and coke prices and the adjustment of product structure by steel mills. Short - process steel mills continued to suffer losses [55][56]. 2026 Market Analysis - **Demand**: In 2026, policy guidance for steel demand will be positive. Real estate investment and sales are expected to decline at a slower pace, infrastructure investment is expected to increase slightly, and manufacturing investment is expected to recover moderately [7][62][72]. - **Supply**: The policy of reducing crude steel production will continue in 2026, and it is expected that crude steel production will decline slightly, and the supply of steel products will better match demand [6][94][96]. - **Import and Export**: In 2026, steel exports are expected to remain at a high level but will decline from the peak. The net export of crude steel may decrease compared to 2024 [10][101][118]. - **Cost**: In 2026, the supply of iron ore and coking coal will be relatively loose, and the profits of the steel industry may be repaired [11][110][114]. 3.2 Iron Ore 2025 Market Review - In 2025, the supply - demand of iron ore was marginally loose, and the price fluctuations throughout the year were significantly narrowed. There were two obvious price increases, and the basis was at a low level in the past five years. The prices of different iron ore varieties showed different trends [124][129][132]. - The supply increment mainly came from Brazil and non - mainstream countries, and the production of domestic mines increased less than expected. Overseas demand decreased slightly, while domestic iron ore demand was better than expected [142][158][179]. 2026 Market Outlook - **Supply**: In 2026, overseas mines (excluding India) are expected to increase production by 62 million tons, with the main increments coming from Australia, Guinea, and Brazil. The supply of domestic iron ore is also expected to increase, but the release of incremental supply from small and medium - sized mines depends on ore prices and project progress [121][161][177]. - **Demand**: Overseas demand is expected to increase slightly, while domestic pig iron production is expected to decline. Overall, the supply - demand of iron ore will remain loose, and the operating range of ore prices is expected to be around $85 - 110 per ton [122][123][203]. - **Inventory**: Port inventory first decreased and then increased, and steel mills maintained low - inventory management [209][215]. 3.3 Coking Coal and Coke 2025 Market Review - In 2025, the prices of coking coal and coke fluctuated greatly. The price of coking coal was mainly driven by the supply side, with a sharp decline from January to May, a sharp increase from June to August, wide - range fluctuations from August to October, and another significant decline in November [231][232][235]. - The production of coking coal showed a pattern of "loose in the first half of the year and tight in the second half". The production of coke was adjusted periodically according to coking profits [246][277]. 2026 Market Outlook - **Coking Coal**: In 2026, domestic coking coal production is expected to reach 483 million tons, and imports are expected to increase to 120 million tons. Demand is expected to decrease by 8 million tons to about 585 million tons. The overall supply - demand of coking coal will face certain pressure, and the operating range of futures prices is expected to be between 900 - 1400 yuan per ton [228][314][317]. - **Coke**: In 2026, coke production is expected to decrease to 495 million tons, exports may fall to 7.2 million tons, and imports may rise to 0.8 million tons. Demand is expected to decrease by about 2.8 million tons. The operating range of coke futures prices is expected to be between 1300 - 1900 yuan per ton [229][314][318]. 3.4 Ferroalloys 2025 Market Review - In 2025, the futures prices of ferromanganese silicon and ferrosilicon showed similar trends, with the amplitude of ferromanganese silicon being slightly larger. The prices were mainly affected by factors such as manganese ore inventory, terminal demand, and the "anti - involution" policy [326][327]. 2026 Market Outlook - **Ferromanganese Silicon**: In 2026, the supply - demand pattern of ferromanganese silicon will remain relatively loose, and prices will mainly fluctuate. New production capacity is to be put into operation, but production may decline slightly. Demand is expected to remain basically the same [322][397]. - **Ferrosilicon**: In 2026, the over - capacity situation of ferrosilicon will continue, with cost support and limited upward drivers. Production capacity will remain in excess, and demand will change little year - on - year [322][399].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - Currently, the supply and demand of iron ore are both increasing, and there is no obvious contradiction in the fundamentals. After the implementation of production cuts in Xinjiang, market sentiment has eased, but the momentum for continuous price increase is not strong. Under the guidance of a tense international trade environment and the domestic policy of "supporting the excellent and eliminating the inferior", the expectation of industry production cuts remains strong, and iron ore prices still face pressure. It is recommended to wait for the release of market pessimism and price stabilization, and then try to conduct buy-hedging or investment strategies for the far-month 2509 contract [13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情回顾与后市展望 - **Market Review**: On April 3, the main 2505 contract of iron ore futures fluctuated upward, opened higher, then fluctuated lower, and rebounded at the end of the session, closing at 791.5 yuan/ton, up 1.09% [7]. - **Spot Market and Technical Analysis**: On April 3, the main iron ore outer - disk quotes increased by 0.5 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the prices of main - grade iron ore at Qingdao Port rose by 5 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. Technically, the daily KDJ indicator of the iron ore 2505 contract continued to rise, and the red column of the daily MACD indicator of the iron ore 2505 contract has enlarged for two consecutive trading days [9]. - **Market Outlook**: Xinjiang's four steel mills announced production control and reduction, with a 10% daily reduction in crude steel production since March 24. After the implementation of production cuts in Xinjiang, market sentiment has improved. In terms of fundamentals, the shipments from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil remained high last week, and the arrivals at 45 ports decreased again. The supply of iron ore is in a loose state and is expected to remain so in the near future. The demand for the five major steel products and the daily average pig iron output continued to increase last week, but the growth rate slowed down, and the growth space of pig iron output is limited. The apparent demand for the five major steel products has been lower than that of the same period last year since last week. The inventory of steel mills decreased by 1 day to 21 days, and the port inventory is expected to gradually accumulate in the next half - month [10][12][13]. 3.2 Industry News - On April 2, the General Offices of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council issued the "Opinions on Improving the Price Governance Mechanism", proposing to deepen price market - oriented reforms, accelerate the construction of key - area markets, and improve the public - utility price mechanism that promotes sustainable development [14]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple charts related to the iron ore and steel industry, including the prices of main iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port, the spread between high - grade and low - grade ores and PB powder, the basis between iron ore spot and the May contract, the shipments from Brazil and Australia, the arrivals at 45 ports, the capacity utilization rate of domestic mines, the trading volume at main ports, the inventory available days of steel mills, the inventory of imported sintered powder ore, the port inventory and dispatch volume, the cost of pig iron without tax for sample steel mills, the blast furnace and electric furnace operating rates and capacity utilization rates, the national daily average pig iron output, the apparent consumption of the five major steel products, the weekly output of the five major steel products, and the inventory of the five major steel products in steel mills [20][21][23]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The improvement in steel demand cannot be reflected in the futures market due to strong expectations of domestic crude steel production cuts and frequent international trade disputes, which have a negative impact on steel prices in terms of exports and costs. - It is expected that the negative factors will be mostly digested by mid - to late April, after which the steel prices may start a rebound after a period of low - level fluctuations. It is advisable to consider buying and hedging or investing in the far - month 2510 contract after the market stabilizes in mid - to late April [11]. 3. Summary by Sections 3.1 Market Review - **Futures Market**: On April 2, the main contracts 2505 of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fluctuated strongly and closed slightly higher, while the main contract 2505 of stainless - steel futures opened higher and then oscillated. For example, the RB2505 contract closed at 3166 yuan/ton with a 0.32% increase, the HC2505 contract closed at 3352 yuan/ton with a 0.24% increase, and the SS2505 contract closed at 13560 yuan/ton with a 0.71% increase [5][6]. - **Spot Market**: The rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices showed different changes in various regions. For instance, the rebar price in Hangzhou increased by 20 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil price in Beijing increased by 20 yuan/ton. The daily KDJ indicators of the rebar 2505 and hot - rolled coil 2505 contracts showed different trends, and the daily MACD green bars of both contracts expanded [9][10]. 3.2 Industry News - In March, the construction steel market prices in Shandong first declined and then rebounded, with the mainstream rebar price dropping to 3360 yuan/ton by the end of the month, a 60 - yuan/ton decrease from the end of February. The market inventory continued to decline, with a continuous 4 - week decline after 3 weeks of increase in February [12]. - On April 2, the capacity utilization rate of 104 electric - arc furnace plants across the country was 38.8%, a 1 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week. The daily consumption of scrap steel in these plants was 22.19 million tons, a 3.1% decrease from the previous period. The number of operating electric - arc furnace plants decreased by 1 to 80, accounting for 76.9% [12]. - The total scrap steel inventory of 300 long - and short - process representative steel mills across the country on April 2 was 4.9317 billion tons, a 0.07% decrease from the previous day. The inventory turnover days remained at 8.2 days, and the daily consumption increased by 0.43% while the daily arrival decreased by 0.08% [12]. - In March, 17 blast furnaces were under maintenance, reducing the daily hot - metal output by 67,300 tons, and 29 blast furnaces resumed production, increasing the daily hot - metal output by 124,000 tons. In April, 3 blast furnaces are planned for maintenance, reducing the daily output by 20,000 tons, and 15 are planned to resume production, increasing the daily output by 78,700 tons. It is estimated that the daily hot - metal output of sample steel mills will reach 2.463 million tons on April 30, a 50,000 - ton increase from March [12]. - The US Secretary of Commerce is involved in the potential acquisition of US Steel by Nippon Steel. Ancora, a shareholder of US Steel, hopes to replace the board and appoint a CEO, planning to invest $6 - 7 billion. Nippon Steel has proposed an additional $7 billion investment to save the $14.1 - billion deal [13]. 3.3 Data Overview The report provides multiple data charts, including the social inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coil in major cities, the spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in major markets, the weekly output and steel mill inventory of five major steel products, the blast furnace and electric - arc furnace operating rates and capacity utilization rates, the national daily average hot - metal output, the apparent consumption of five major steel products, and the basis between Shanghai rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and the May contracts [16][18][20][27][30][34].