Core Viewpoint - The recent dramatic fluctuations in the domestic commodity futures market, particularly the container shipping index (European line), reflect significant changes and uncertainties in the global shipping industry, driven by market sentiment, supply-demand imbalances, and geopolitical risks [1][4][17]. Market Fluctuations - The container shipping index (European line) experienced a remarkable reversal, rising over 6% after a nearly 8% drop the previous day, indicating a recovery in market sentiment [1][4]. - The trading volume showed a reduction, with over 2,800 contracts being closed on the main contract, suggesting a shift in market dynamics [4]. Shipping Market Dynamics - The global container shipping market is undergoing a profound transformation, highlighted by the split between Maersk and MSC, leading to a new "3+1" alliance structure that affects route planning, capacity allocation, and pricing strategies [6][7]. - The total capacity of the global container fleet has surpassed 33 million TEU for the first time, with an expected growth of 4.5% this year, exacerbating supply-demand imbalances [7][9]. Trade Imbalances - The trade imbalance has worsened, with North America's container imports nearly quadrupling its exports, increasing the imbalance ratio from 40-50% pre-pandemic to about 60% this year, raising operational costs and complexities [9]. Geopolitical Risks - The situation in the Red Sea has become a critical factor affecting European line freight rates, with recent attacks reigniting concerns and leading to increased operational costs for shipping companies [10][12]. - The geopolitical risks have forced ships to reroute, significantly increasing fuel costs and operational pressures, with predictions that these measures may continue into mid-next year [12]. Seasonal and Economic Factors - The year-end period, typically crucial for shipping companies to maintain prices, is showing signs of a "weak peak season" due to delayed shipments and overall weak global trade demand [13][15]. - Economic challenges in Europe, including high inflation and energy crises, are suppressing consumer demand, while U.S. tariff policies are adding pressure to global trade [15]. Future Outlook - Short-term market recovery is possible, with seasonal demand expected to rise, but long-term forecasts remain pessimistic, predicting a 45% drop in container shipping profits this year and a further 61% decline next year [15][17]. - If the Red Sea routes normalize by mid-next year, spot rates for shipping from Shanghai to Europe could fall to between $1,500 and $2,000 per container [15]. Conclusion - The volatility in the European line futures market mirrors the complexities of the global trade landscape, influenced by supply-demand dynamics, geopolitical tensions, and seasonal factors, indicating a shift towards a new normal in the container shipping market [17].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - Attention should be paid to whether shipping companies will announce price increases for the second half of December this week. The freight rates in December are continuously being adjusted, and the situation of the second - half - month quotes should be monitored. The 2026 February contract may have a large expected difference, and the far - month contracts face the pressure of the Suez Canal's resumption of navigation [1][4][5]. - The 2025 is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of November 23, 2025, 235 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.9184 million TEU [7]. - The trading volume and closing prices of various contracts of the container shipping index (European Line) futures are provided, along with the SCFI and SCFIS prices of different routes [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Price - As of November 26, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index (European Line) futures is 74,282.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 49,727.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts are 1387.40, 1072.20, 1252.00, 1386.10, 1055.80, and 1622.40 respectively [6]. 2. Spot Price - The SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price announced on November 21 is 1367 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - West Coast of the United States) price is 1645 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - East Coast of the United States) price is 2384 US dollars/FEU. The SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) on November 24 is 1639.37 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - West Coast of the United States) is 1107.85 points [6]. 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - In November, the average weekly capacity for the remaining two weeks is 343,700 TEU, and the capacities in weeks 48 and 49 are 336,200 and 351,300 TEU respectively. In December, the average monthly weekly capacity is 303,900 TEU, and the capacities in weeks 50, 51, 52, and 53 are 305,800, 278,000, 302,600, and 329,100 TEU respectively. In January, the average monthly weekly capacity is 310,100 TEU, and the capacities in weeks 2, 3, 4, and 5 are 346,900, 293,400, 299,000, and 301,300 TEU respectively. There is 1 TBN and 3 blank sailings in December [4]. - As of November 23, 2025, 71 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.072 million TEU, and 12 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 253,800 TEU [7]. 4. Supply Chain - Maersk has launched a Cape of Good Hope network due to the ongoing turmoil in the Red Sea. There is currently no specific time to change the east - west route of the Gemini to pass through the Red Sea [3]. - The cease - fire mediation plan in Gaza is advancing, and the probability of the Suez Canal resuming navigation in 2026 is relatively high. If it resumes, it may increase the effective capacity supply and put downward pressure on freight rates [6]. 5. Demand and European Economy - The freight volume in December and January is at a relatively high level within the year. The delivery and settlement price of the February 2026 contract basically reflects the spot price center at the end of January. If the shipping companies' contract price - holding time is extended and high prices are achieved in January 2026, the February contract may be at parity with the December contract [5].

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Core Viewpoint - A vessel was attacked by five rocket-propelled grenades 51 nautical miles west of Hodeidah, Yemen, resulting in severe damage and complete failure of its propulsion system. The ship is under ongoing attack, and authorities are conducting an investigation [1]. Group 1 - The incident highlights the ongoing security risks in maritime trade routes in the Red Sea region [1]. - The attack on the vessel indicates a potential escalation in hostilities in Yemen, which could impact shipping and trade operations [1]. - Authorities are actively investigating the situation, which may lead to further developments in maritime security protocols [1].

Core Viewpoint - The Houthis have stated that the ceasefire agreement with the United States was reached before their conflict with Iran, indicating that a response to potential U.S. attacks on Iran is only a matter of time [1] Group 1 - The Houthis claim that their ceasefire agreement with the U.S. is a strategic move prior to escalating tensions with Iran [1] - The group suggests that any retaliation against U.S. actions regarding Iran is imminent, highlighting the fragile nature of regional stability [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Houthi movement in Yemen has issued a warning that if the United States becomes involved in an Israeli attack on Iran, it will target American ships in the Red Sea [1] Group 1 - The Houthis are prepared to retaliate against U.S. vessels in the Red Sea if the U.S. intervenes in the conflict between Israel and Iran [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Israeli Defense Minister announced that the Israeli military has attacked and severely damaged ports controlled by the Houthi forces in Yemen [1] Group 1 - The Israeli military action targets Houthi-controlled ports, indicating a significant escalation in regional military activities [1] - This operation reflects Israel's ongoing strategy to counter threats from Iranian-backed groups in the region [1] - The attack may have implications for maritime security in the Red Sea, affecting shipping routes and trade [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Israeli Defense Forces confirmed airstrikes in Yemen targeting Houthi-controlled Sana'a International Airport, in response to multiple missile and drone attacks on Israel, including a recent attack on Ben Gurion Airport that resulted in injuries [1] Group 1: Military Actions - The Israeli airstrikes have rendered Sana'a International Airport "completely paralyzed" [1] - The airport was reportedly used by Houthi forces for transporting weapons and operatives, and for terrorist purposes [1] - Additional targets included several power stations used by the Houthis near Sana'a and a cement factory to disrupt their infrastructure and tunnel construction efforts [1]