调研报告——纯苯 东证化工草根调研二十七：华东纯苯产业链 [T走ab势le_评R级an：k] 纯苯：震荡 ★进口货源高企推升港口库存，华东部分库区转为阶梯式计价 今年以来，纯苯进口货源同比持续高企，使得华东主港库存明显高 于去年同期。为提升货源周转速度，华东某库区已经于 7 月中旬从 固定式收费转为阶梯式收费。关于纯苯货源抵港情况，就近端而言， 前期部分进口货源有所延期，近期抵港货源偏多。展望后续，抵港 货源数量环比可能略有减少，纯苯进口量级环比或有下降，但远端 实际下降幅度比较难评估。另外关于加氢苯入罐问题，某库区给出 的反馈为，考虑周边工厂原料实际采购及使用情况，目前不接受加 氢苯入罐，后续可能会再结合实际情况进行调整。 能 源 化 工 ★纯苯生产相对稳定，自发性供应量级调整幅度一般在 5-10%左右 纯苯因其生产特性问题，供应整体较为稳定，极少出现因单一环节 利润导致的装置开停调整。从本次调研的纯苯生产企业情况来看， 其纯苯的潜在自发性供应量级调整幅度一般在 5-10%左右，其主要通 过两种方式进行负荷调整：①某企业在去年纯苯效益好的时候，产 线负荷超负一成左右；今年效益同比有所下降，装置变为正常满负 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pure benzene market is expected to gradually ease the shortage situation under the dual effects of explicit capacity expansion and implicit supply elasticity, but raw material constraints, technological bottlenecks, and demand resilience will still maintain a dynamic tight - balance pattern [2][28] - Although capacity expansion may lead to short - term supply relaxation, the new energy, high - end manufacturing, and green materials sectors will continuously optimize the demand structure, and the medium - to - long - term supply and demand will still tend towards dynamic balance [18] Group 3: Summary According to the Catalog (1) Upstream Supply - Petroleum benzene in pure benzene has three main raw material sources: ethylene cracking (accounting for about 25%), catalytic reforming (about 55%), and disproportionation and isomerization (about 20%). Supplementary sources include hydrogenated benzene (coal - based route, 14%) and imported benzene (with a dependence of about 15%, mainly from South Korea and Southeast Asia) [4] (2) Mid - stream Trade - Petroleum benzene production has been growing rapidly, with an average annual growth rate of 8% - 10% from 2023 - 2024, driven by the concentrated release of private refining and chemical production capacity. In 2024, the total production capacity exceeded 2100 tons [9] - Hydrogenated benzene production has stagnated, with a growth rate close to zero. In 2023, the growth rate was only 0.5%, and in the first half of 2024, there was a negative growth of - 1.2%. The reasons include high raw material coal tar prices, long - term negative processing profits, strict environmental protection policies, and low industry operating rates [9] - The import dependence has increased. In 2023, the import volume of pure benzene reached 3.2 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 15%), and the import dependence rose from 8% to 12%. It is expected to exceed 3.5 million tons in 2024 [10] (3) Downstream Demand - The downstream consumption of pure benzene is driven by five core areas: styrene (41%), caprolactam (18%), phenol/acetone (16%), aniline (13%), and adipic acid (7%) [17] - There is a pressure of supply surplus as the new private refining and chemical production capacity from 2023 - 2025 exceeds 8 million tons per year, pushing the domestic self - sufficiency rate to over 90%. At the same time, there are new demand growth points, such as the new energy vehicle lightweight trend and the expansion of the wind power industry [17] (4) Summary - In 2025, the growth rate of petroleum benzene production capacity will significantly increase, mainly driven by the concentrated commissioning of ethylene cracking units. However, the actual production capacity realization may be affected by the tight supply of naphtha and mixed - feed technology limitations. There is also implicit supply increment through production route optimization [28]

Core Viewpoint - The article provides a comprehensive analysis of the pure benzene industry, highlighting its production processes, supply chain dynamics, and market trends, particularly focusing on the impact of downstream demand and global trade flows [3][5][17]. Summary by Sections Pure Benzene Overview - Benzene (C6H6) is a colorless, flammable liquid that serves as a fundamental petrochemical raw material, indicating the development level of a country's petrochemical industry [3][12]. Pure Benzene Industry Chain - The main downstream products of pure benzene include styrene, caprolactam, phenol, aniline, and adipic acid, with styrene consumption being the largest but declining in recent years due to real estate market influences [12][16]. Production Process - Pure benzene is produced as a byproduct in various chemical processes, with its output influenced by the profitability of producing other chemicals like PX and the demand for blending oil [16]. Global Capacity and Distribution - Global pure benzene capacity has accelerated, primarily driven by China, with Northeast Asia accounting for nearly half of the total capacity [17][24]. Trade Flows - The global trade flow of pure benzene moves from major production areas to consumption regions, with China, the US, and Europe being the primary consumers [20][41]. Domestic Capacity and Production - By the end of 2024, China's pure benzene capacity is projected to reach 25.73 million tons, with significant capacity additions in 2022 and 2023, although growth is expected to slow in 2024 [24]. Seasonal Operation Rates - The operational rates of domestic pure benzene facilities exhibit seasonality, aligning with refinery maintenance schedules, particularly in spring and autumn [33]. Downstream Demand - Downstream demand for pure benzene has been increasing, especially since 2021, driven by the commissioning of styrene and other downstream facilities, although the share of styrene has been declining [35]. Import and Export Dynamics - Domestic pure benzene is primarily imported, with significant imports from South Korea and Southeast Asia, while exports remain minimal [41]. Profitability - The profitability of pure benzene production is typically assessed through the price spread between pure benzene and naphtha, with variations depending on market conditions [46]. Supply and Demand Balance - The supply-demand balance for pure benzene is influenced by various factors, including production costs and downstream demand fluctuations [50]. Futures Contracts - Futures contracts for pure benzene are traded on the Dalian Commodity Exchange, with specific trading units and delivery standards outlined [53][54]. Delivery Standards - The delivery standards for pure benzene include specifications for appearance, purity, and various chemical content limits, ensuring quality control in trading [54][55]. Delivery Areas and Pricing - Delivery areas for pure benzene are strategically chosen to facilitate trade, with pricing adjustments based on regional supply and demand dynamics [56].