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纸浆:宽幅震荡20260130
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-01-30 02:56
商 品 研 究 | | | 表 1:基本面数据 2026 年 01 月 30 日 纸浆:宽幅震荡 20260130 | 项目 | | 项目名称 | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 纸浆主力 | 日盘收盘价(元/吨) | 5. 388 | 5. 374 | +14 | | | | 夜盘收盘价(元/吨) | 5.416 | 5, 358 | +58 | | | | 成交量(手) | 215. 374 | 273.090 | -57.716 | | 期货市场 | (05合约) | 持仓量 (手) | 263. 863 | 264.092 | -229 | | | | 仓单数量(吨) | 141, 442 | 140. 494 | +948 | | | | 前20名会员净持仓(手) | -24.693 | -21.293 | -3. 400 | | 价差数据 | 基差 | 银星-期货主力 | -8 | 6 | -14 | | | | 金鱼-期货主力(非标) | -788 | -774 | -14 | | | 月差 | SP0 ...
纸浆:宽幅震荡20260113
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-01-13 02:05
Report Summary 1. Report Title and Date - Title: "Paper Pulp: Wide - range Fluctuation 20260113" - Date: January 13, 2026 [1] 2. Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 3. Core Viewpoints - The paper pulp market is in a wide - range fluctuation state. The market supply - demand structure has not changed significantly, and downstream demand remains weak, failing to provide new driving forces. Attention should be paid to the capital trends in the futures market, the actual transaction changes of high - priced broadleaf pulp, port inventory data, downstream orders, and pulp price changes [4][5] 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The daily - session closing price of the paper pulp main contract was 5,490 yuan/ton (down 60 yuan from the previous day), and the night - session closing price was 5,514 yuan/ton (down 34 yuan). The trading volume was 283,615 lots (down 66,346 lots), the holding volume of the 05 contract was 219,104 lots (up 3,624 lots), the warehouse receipt quantity was 142,363 tons (up 5,874 tons), and the net holding volume of the top 20 members was - 29,805 lots (down 2,872 lots) [3] - **Spread Data**: The basis of "Yinxing - Futures Main" was 60 (up 10), the basis of "Jinyu - Futures Main (Non - standard)" was - 740 (up 60), and the month - spread of SP03 - SP05 was - 30 (up 4) [3] - **Spot Market**: The domestic prices of coniferous pulp brands such as Beimu, Kailipu, Shipai, and Yinxing were 5,800 yuan/ton, 5,750 yuan/ton, 5,700 yuan/ton, and 5,550 yuan/ton respectively; the domestic prices of broadleaf pulp brands such as Jindao, Mingxing, and Tai were 4,750 yuan/ton, 4,750 yuan/ton, and 4,700 yuan/ton respectively; the domestic price of chemical mechanical pulp brand Kunhe was 3,800 yuan/ton; and the domestic price of natural color pulp brand Jinxing was 5,050 yuan/ton [3] 4.2 Industry News - The futures market fluctuated downward yesterday. The price of coniferous pulp in the spot market weakened, while the price of broadleaf pulp remained at a high - level offer. The actual transactions of high - priced broadleaf pulp were light, and the terminal's acceptance of the current price was gradually weakening [4] - The mainstream price of 70g white offset paper was 4,450 yuan/ton, and the average price of 70g high - white offset paper was 4,750 yuan/ton, remaining flat from the previous day. Factory production did not increase, and the market supply was abundant. Supported by pulp factors, enterprises mostly maintained a price - holding strategy. Downstream consumption was mainly social orders, with low user purchasing enthusiasm, leading to cautious operations by traders [5]
建信期货纸浆日报-20251211
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-12-11 02:23
Report Information - Report Type: Pulp Daily Report [1] - Date: December 11, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Recently, the international wood chip supply has been continuously tight, and APRIL and Bracell under the Golden Eagle Group announced a $20/ton increase in the price of bleached hardwood pulp in Asia in December. In October, the chemical pulp shipments of the world's top 20 pulp-producing countries decreased year-on-year, with significant declines in shipments to the Chinese market. In October 2025, the total wood pulp inventory at European ports decreased both month-on-month and year-on-year, while the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports increased month-on-month as of November 27, 2025. The downstream base paper prices have been adjusted slightly, and the processing cost pressure remains high. Some cultural paper mills issued price increase letters in December, boosting market confidence. In the short term, the suspension of overseas pulp mills has boosted the futures price. The main contract is mainly a game between new and old warehouse receipts, and the fundamentals have not yet formed a trend, so it is still regarded as a low-level wide-range shock adjustment [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: The previous settlement price of the pulp futures 05 contract was 5,460 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 5,436 yuan/ton, a overall decrease of 0.44%. The intended transaction price range of softwood pulp in the Shandong wood pulp market was 4,750 - 6,300 yuan/ton, with prices remaining stable compared to the previous trading day's closing price. The quote for Shandong Silver Star was 5,500 yuan/ton [7]. - **Operation Suggestions**: The fundamentals have not yet formed a trend, and it is still regarded as a low-level wide-range shock adjustment [8]. 2. Industry News - On December 3, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment issued a letter soliciting opinions on the revised draft of the "Catalogue for the Classification Management of Environmental Impact Assessments of Construction Projects". Compared with the 2021 version, the revised "Catalogue" has 56 primary categories, 199 secondary industry categories, and 4 general processes. The adjustment has added 30 secondary industry categories. The "paper products manufacturing" industry is no longer in the "Catalogue", which means that new projects will simplify the requirements for environmental assessment management next year, which is a major benefit for the base paper processing industry and will further expand paper consumption. The deadline for soliciting opinions is January 5, 2026 [9]. 3. Data Overview - **Pulp Futures Data**: Includes information on contracts such as SP2601, SP2605, and SP2609, including opening price, closing price, highest price, lowest price, change rate, trading volume, open interest, etc. [7] - **Inventory Data**: In October 2025, the total wood pulp inventory at European ports decreased by 10.2% month-on-month and 6.5% year-on-year. As of November 27, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports increased by 1.51% month-on-month [8] - **Price Data**: The intended transaction price range of softwood pulp in the Shandong wood pulp market was 4,750 - 6,300 yuan/ton, and the quote for Shandong Silver Star was 5,500 yuan/ton [7]
纸浆涨超3%,连续两日大涨后怎么看?
对冲研投· 2025-12-03 07:41
Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in pulp futures prices is primarily driven by marginal improvements in the market fundamentals, following a period of decline due to oversupply and high inventory levels [4][17]. Supply Side - In October, China's pulp imports totaled 2.618 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.95%. However, cumulative imports from January to October 2025 increased by 4.79% to 29.674 million tons [7]. - The average operating rate for broadleaf pulp in November was 62.5%, down 7.7 percentage points month-on-month, indicating some production adjustments in the industry [7]. Inventory Side - As of the end of November, the total pulp inventory at major Chinese ports was approximately 2.031 million tons, an increase of 6.17% from the previous month, reflecting a growing inventory pressure [9]. - The import volume of pulp is expected to see only a slight increase in December due to ongoing high inventory levels and weak external market performance [9]. Demand Side - The average operating rate for various paper types in November was 61.29%, showing a month-on-month increase of 1.78 percentage points. However, production levels for life paper decreased by 2.71% compared to the previous month [11]. - The overall price performance of different paper types in November was mixed, with life paper prices slightly rising while other types like double copper paper continued to decline [12]. Market Sentiment - Recent market analysis indicates that the pulp market is experiencing a rebound due to the digestion of previous negative factors and the emergence of new balance, with cost support and improved market sentiment driving prices upward [17][19]. - Despite the recent price increases, the market remains cautious due to high inventory levels and the need for substantial improvements in demand to sustain long-term price increases [18][19].