纸浆早报 研究中心能化团队 2026/03/03 SP主力合约收盘价： 5252.00 以13%增值税计算 | 产地 | 品牌 | 价格说明 | 港口美元价格 | 山东地区人民币价格 | 进口利润 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 加拿大 | 金狮 | CFR | 780 | 6300 | 157.15 | | | 雄狮 | CFR | 730 | 5260 | -443.56 | | 智利 | 银星 | CFR信用证 90天 | 700 | 5290 | -229.99 | | 日期 | 2026/03/02 | 2026/02/27 | 2026/02/26 | 2026/02/25 | 2026/02/24 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主力合约收盘价 | 5252.00 | 5246.00 | 5312.00 | 5348.00 | 5340.00 | | 折美元价 | 666.01 | 668.12 | 678.24 | 680.16 | 677.38 | | 距上一日涨跌 | 0.11437% ...

纸浆早报 研究中心能化团队 2026/03/02 SP主力合约收盘价： 5246.00 | 日期 | 2026/02/27 | 2026/02/26 | 2026/02/25 | 2026/02/24 | 2026/02/13 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主力合约收盘价 | 5246.00 | 5312.00 | 5348.00 | 5340.00 | 5260.00 | | 折美元价 | 668.12 | 678.24 | 680.16 | 677.38 | 664.54 | | 距上一日涨跌 | -1.24247% | -0.67315% | 0.14981% | 1.52091% | 0.42001% | | 山东银星基差 | 79 | 28 | 27 | 25 | 50 | | 江浙沪银星基差 | 79 | 43 | 17 | 25 | 50 | 以13%增值税计算 | 产地 | 品牌 | 价格说明 | 港口美元价格 | 山东地区人民币价格 | 进口利润 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 加拿大 ...

纸浆早报 研究中心能化团队 2026/02/27 SP主力合约收盘价： 5312.00 | 日期 | 2026/02/26 | 2026/02/25 | 2026/02/24 | 2026/02/13 | 2026/02/12 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主力合约收盘价 | 5312.00 | 5348.00 | 5340.00 | 5260.00 | 5238.00 | | 折美元价 | 678.24 | 680.16 | 677.38 | 664.54 | 662.67 | | 距上一日涨跌 | -0.67315% | 0.14981% | 1.52091% | 0.42001% | 0.03820% | | 山东银星基差 | 28 | 27 | 25 | 50 | 72 | | 江浙沪银星基差 | 43 | 17 | 25 | 50 | 72 | 以13%增值税计算 | 产地 | 品牌 | 价格说明 | 港口美元价格 | 山东地区人民币价格 | 进口利润 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 加拿大 | ...

纸浆早报 研究中心能化团队 2026/02/26 SP主力合约收盘价： 5348.00 | 日期 | 2026/02/25 | 2026/02/24 | 2026/02/13 | 2026/02/12 | 2026/02/11 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主力合约收盘价 | 5348.00 | 5340.00 | 5260.00 | 5238.00 | 5236.00 | | 折美元价 | 680.16 | 677.38 | 664.54 | 662.67 | 661.46 | | 距上一日涨跌 | 0.14981% | 1.52091% | 0.42001% | 0.03820% | 0.65359% | | 山东银星基差 | 27 | 25 | 50 | 72 | 74 | | 江浙沪银星基差 | 17 | 25 | 50 | 72 | 74 | 以13%增值税计算 | 产地 | 品牌 | 价格说明 | 港口美元价格 | 山东地区人民币价格 | 进口利润 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 加拿大 | ...

注：上一日汇率 - 6.88 纸浆早报 研究中心能化团队 2026/02/25 SP主力合约收盘价： 5340.00 | 日期 | 2026/02/24 | 2026/02/13 | 2026/02/12 | 2026/02/11 | 2026/02/10 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主力合约收盘价 | 5340.00 | 5260.00 | 5238.00 | 5236.00 | 5202.00 | | 折美元价 | 677.38 | 664.54 | 662.67 | 661.46 | 656.97 | | 距上一日涨跌 | 1.52091% | 0.42001% | 0.03820% | 0.65359% | 0.03846% | | 山东银星基差 | 25 | 50 | 72 | 74 | 108 | | 江浙沪银星基差 | 25 | 50 | 72 | 74 | 138 | 以13%增值税计算 | 产地 | 品牌 | 价格说明 | 港口美元价格 | 山东地区人民币价格 | 进口利润 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

纸浆早报 研究中心能化团队 2026/02/24 SP主力合约收盘价： 5260.00 | | 文化用纸 | | 包装纸 | | 生活用纸 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 双胶指数 | 双铜指数 | 白卡指数 | | 生活指数 | | 2026/02/10 | 5725 | 5670 | 4350 | | 867 | | 2026/02/11 | 5725 | 5670 | 4350 | | 867 | | 2026/02/12 | 5725 | 5670 | 4350 | | 867 | | 2026/02/13 | 5725 | 5670 | 4350 | | 867 | | 变化 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | 0 | | | 双胶利润率估算 双铜利润率估算 | | 白卡利润率估算 | | 生活利润率估算 | | 2026/02/10 | -2.1797% | 7.9583% | -7.7945% | | 8.5041% | | 2026/02/11 | -2.1797% | 7.9583% | -7.7945% | | 8.5041% | | 2 ...

Group 1: SP Main Contract Information - The closing price of the SP main contract on February 12, 2026, was 5238.00 [2] - The closing prices of the main contract from February 6 to February 12, 2026, were 5234.00, 5200.00, 5202.00, 5236.00, and 5238.00 respectively [2] - The corresponding discount US - dollar prices were 658.48, 655.25, 656.97, 661.46, and 662.67 respectively [2] - The daily price changes were - 0.38066%, - 0.64960%, 0.03846%, 0.65359%, and 0.03820% respectively [2] - The Shandong Yinxing basis from February 6 to February 12, 2026, was 76, 110, 108, 74, and 72 respectively [2] - The Jiangsu - Zhejiang - Shanghai Yinxing basis from February 6 to February 12, 2026, was 106, 140, 138, 74, and 72 respectively [2] Group 2: Import Profit and Price Information - With a 13% VAT calculation, for Canadian pulp: the port US - dollar price of Golden Lion (CFR) was 780, the Shandong region RMB price was 6300, and the import profit was 148.34; the port US - dollar price of Lion (CFR) was 730, the Shandong region RMB price was 5270, and the import profit was - 491.81 [3] - For Chilean pulp, the port US - dollar price of Yinxing (CFR, 90 - day letter of credit) was 700, the Shandong region RMB price was 5310, and the import profit was - 217.90 [3] Group 3: Pulp and Paper Price and Margin Information - From February 6 to February 12, 2026, the national average prices of softwood pulp, hardwood pulp, natural pulp, and chemimechanical pulp remained unchanged at 6073.75, 4810.75, 5415.00, and 3686.25 respectively; the Shandong region average prices also remained unchanged at 6245.00, 4775.00, 5400.00, and 3600.00 respectively [3] - From February 9 to February 12, 2026, the indices of cultural paper (double - offset and double - copper), packaging paper (white card), and tissue paper remained unchanged at 5725, 5670, 4350, and 867 respectively [3] - From February 9 to February 12, 2026, the estimated profit margins of double - offset paper, double - copper paper, white card paper, and tissue paper remained unchanged at - 2.1797%, 7.9583%, - 7.7945%, and 8.5041% respectively [3] - From February 6 to February 12, 2026, the price differences between softwood and hardwood pulp, softwood and natural pulp, softwood and chemimechanical pulp, and softwood and waste paper remained unchanged at 755.00, - 90, 1435, and 3734 respectively [3]

Summary of Conference Call on the Paper Industry Industry Overview - The paper industry is experiencing an improvement in the mid-term supply-demand structure, with a marginal reduction in new capacity additions expected in 2026-2027, indicating an industry cycle turning point [2][4] - The appreciation of the RMB is expected to enhance the profitability of paper companies by lowering the cost of imported pulp and increasing returns on dollar-denominated assets [2][5] Key Companies Nine Dragons Paper - Nine Dragons Paper is the leading global player in pulp and paper production with a total capacity of approximately 25 million tons [8] - The company has transitioned its product structure from waste paper-based products to include wood pulp-based products, achieving profitability with an expected profit of over 2 billion RMB in the first half of the fiscal year 2026 [8] - The net profit per ton has recovered to around 170 RMB, although it remains at historical lows [8] Sun Paper - Sun Paper is noted for its cost advantages and has performed well during cyclical downturns, making it a preferred investment choice [9] - The company is expected to maintain stable profits in Q1 2026, with a recovery anticipated in Q2 due to price increases [9] - The company’s boxboard business in Shandong has shown steady profitability, while the Nanning base is expected to maintain stable earnings due to improved production efficiency [10] Financial Insights - The RMB's appreciation is projected to improve the net profit of direct enterprises by approximately 1% if the exchange rate reaches 6.9 [5][6] - The global context of interest rate cuts is expected to lead to a balanced supply-demand situation for wood pulp, with prices likely to rise moderately in 2026 [7] Production and Cost Management - Sun Paper's Laos operations are expanding, with an increasing self-sufficiency in wood chips, which will enhance cost advantages [3][13] - The company has integrated and adjusted its dissolving pulp capacity, maintaining full production in Laos, which contributes to cost advantages in pulp and paper production [11] Growth Potential - Sun Paper is expected to maintain a certain scale of expansion, with new capacities coming online in Nanning and Shandong, leading to single-digit percentage growth in volume [12] - The company’s effective management and cost control measures position it for excess profitability compared to peers [12] Conclusion - Overall, Sun Paper is considered a solid growth investment opportunity in the current market environment, supported by favorable industry dynamics and internal efficiencies [14]

纸浆早报 研究中心能化团队 2026/02/10 SP主力合约收盘价： 5200.00 | 日期 | 2026/02/09 | 2026/02/06 | 2026/02/05 | 2026/02/04 | 2026/02/03 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主力合约收盘价 | 5200.00 | 5234.00 | 5254.00 | 5324.00 | 5276.00 | | 折美元价 | 655.25 | 658.48 | 660.96 | 670.20 | 664.21 | | 距上一日涨跌 | -0.64960% | -0.38066% | -1.31480% | 0.90978% | 0.18990% | | 山东银星基差 | 110 | 76 | 81 | 51 | 99 | | 江浙沪银星基差 | 140 | 106 | 136 | 66 | 114 | 以13%增值税计算 | 产地 | 品牌 | 价格说明 | 港口美元价格 | 山东地区人民币价格 | 进口利润 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a "stable weakening" outlook for the overall credit quality of the paper industry over the next 12 to 18 months, with expectations that it will remain above a "negative" status level [5]. Core Insights - Since 2025, the paper industry has experienced continuous negative growth in PPI, with overall profitability under pressure due to weak demand recovery and a loose supply environment. The industry is expected to hover at the bottom of its economic cycle in 2026 [5][9]. - The report highlights that leading companies with advantages in "product differentiation and integrated pulp-paper operations" are likely to recover profitability first, while mid-tier companies that rely heavily on purchased pulp and face low operating rates may encounter risks of "incremental growth without profit" or even losses [5][29]. - The report emphasizes that the overall credit quality of the paper industry is expected to weaken compared to the previous year, but still remains in a stable condition [5]. Summary by Sections Analysis Approach - The analysis of the paper industry's credit fundamentals begins with macroeconomic factors, followed by a focus on changes in raw materials, production supply, and consumer demand, leading to insights on product price trends and competitive dynamics [8]. Industry Fundamentals - The paper industry is characterized as a typical cyclical industry, with its performance closely correlated to macroeconomic trends. The GDP growth rate slightly increased to 5.20% in 2025, while the added value of the paper industry decreased to 3.10% [9]. - The report notes that from January to November 2025, the total profit of large-scale paper and paper product enterprises decreased by 10.70% year-on-year, indicating a weak industry outlook [9]. Industry Financial Performance - The report states that the overall profitability indicators, cash generation ability, and debt repayment indicators of the paper industry have weakened since 2025. It anticipates a low-level recovery in operational indicators in 2026, but warns of increased debt pressure due to new investments [30]. - The sample of 30 companies analyzed includes a diverse representation of the paper industry, covering cultural, packaging, life, and specialty paper sectors, providing a comprehensive view of the industry's operational and financial performance [30]. Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the prices of major paper types have generally declined since 2025 due to a loose supply environment, with expectations for continued pressure on prices in 2026 [40]. - It highlights that the competition remains intense, with leading companies likely to recover profitability faster than those with high reliance on purchased pulp and low operating rates [40].