商 品 研 究 2026 年 02 月 25 日 纸浆：震荡偏强 20260225 | | | 表 1：基本面数据 | 项目 | | 项目名称 | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 纸浆主力 | 日盘收盘价(元/吨) | 5. 340 | 5, 260 | +80 | | | | 夜盘收盘价(元/吨) | 5. 378 | - | | | | | 成交量(手) | 175. 423 | 164. 325 | +11.098 | | | (05合约) | 持仓量(手) | 249.662 | 269.664 | -20.002 | | | | 仓单数量(吨) | 155, 621 | 154. 612 | +1.009 | | | | 前20名会员净持仓(手) | -19.406 | -18.079 | -1, 327 | | 价差数据 | 基差 | 银星-期货主力 | 10 | -10 | +20 | | | | 金鱼-期货主力(非标) | -740 | -680 | -60 | | | 月差 | SP03- ...

Report Information - Report Title: Pulp Daily Report [1] - Date: January 22, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Short - term pulp is restricted by the sector and weak downstream procurement, showing a wide - range oscillatory trend with both upward pressure and downward support [8] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Pulp futures contract 05 had a previous settlement price and closing price of 5376 yuan/ton, with an overall decline of 0.00%. The intended transaction price range of softwood pulp in the Shandong market was 4900 - 5700 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day. The Shandong Yinxing was quoted at 5400 - 5420 yuan/ton [7] - Arauco's January pulp export prices: softwood pulp Yinxing increased by 10 dollars/ton to 710 dollars/ton; unbleached pulp Jinxing remained at 620 dollars/ton; hardwood pulp Mingxing increased by 20 dollars/ton to 590 dollars/ton [8] - In November, the chemical pulp shipments of 20 pulp - producing countries decreased by 6.9% year - on - year, softwood pulp by 7.6%, and hardwood pulp by 7.3%. Shipments to the Chinese market decreased significantly [8] - In December 2025, the European pulp inventory was 759,600 tons, up 7.6% month - on - month and 2.4% year - on - year; the European pulp consumption was 722,400 tons, down 10.9% month - on - month and up 0.6% year - on - year [8] - In December 2025, the total pulp imports were 3.113 million tons, down 4.1% month - on - month and 3.8% year - on - year [8] - As of January 15, 2026, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports decreased by 0.56% [8] - In the cultural paper market, some idle production lines in South China plan to resume production. Some publishing orders have been picked up, weakening the rigid demand support for offset paper, and the mainstream quotes remained stable [8] 2. Industry News - On January 21, the 6600 paper machine of Yunnan Dongsheng Paper was successfully put into operation. It is the first 6600 paper machine of Sichuan Chengfa Papermaking Machinery Co., Ltd., with a high - speed output of packaging paper and stable product quality [9] 3. Data Overview - Multiple data charts are provided, including import bleached softwood pulp spot prices in Shandong, pulp futures prices, pulp spot - futures price differences, needle - broadleaf price differences, warehouse receipt totals, domestic main port pulp inventories, European main port pulp inventories, copperplate paper and offset paper prices and differences, white cardboard and whiteboard paper prices and differences, and the US dollar to RMB exchange rate [15][26][31]

Group 1: SP Main Contract Information - The closing price of the SP main contract on December 29, 2025, was 5510.00 [3] - The closing prices from December 23 - 26, 2025, were 5620.00, 5620.00, 5604.00, and 5630.00 respectively [3] - The corresponding US - dollar prices were 698.78, 700.03, 698.96, 702.06, and 686.78 [3] - The daily price changes were - 0.03557%, 0.00000%, - 0.28470%, 0.46395%, and - 2.13144% [3] - The Shandong Yinxing basis on December 29, 2025, was 80, and the Yangtze River Delta Yinxing basis was 50 [3] Group 2: Pulp Import Information - With a 13% VAT calculation, the import profit for Canadian Golden Lion pulp was 51.39, for Canadian Lion pulp was - 287.55, and for Chilean Yinxing pulp was - 24.91 [4] - The port US - dollar prices were 780, 730, and 700 respectively, and the Shandong region RMB prices were 6300, 5565, and 5590 [4] Group 3: Pulp and Paper Price Averages - From December 23 - 29, 2025, the national average prices of softwood pulp, hardwood pulp, kraft pulp, and chemimechanical pulp remained unchanged at 6073.75, 4810.75, 5415.00, and 3686.25 respectively [4] - The Shandong region average prices also remained unchanged at 6245.00, 4775.00, 5400.00, and 3600.00 [4] - The cultural paper (double - offset index, double - copper index), packaging paper (white - card index), and most of the price indices remained unchanged, except for the life - paper index which increased by 2 to 857 [4] Group 4: Paper Profit Margins - The estimated profit margins of double - offset paper and double - copper paper remained unchanged from December 24 - 29, 2025, at - 4.4235% and 5.9667% respectively [4] - The estimated profit margin of white - card paper remained unchanged at - 8.9723% [4] - The estimated profit margin of life - paper increased from 3.5917% to 4.3314%, a change of 0.7397 [4] Group 5: Pulp Price Spreads - From December 23 - 29, 2025, the softwood - hardwood pulp price spread was 930.00, the softwood - kraft pulp price spread was 190, the softwood - chemimechanical pulp price spread was 1740, and the softwood - waste paper price spread was 4014 [4]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for pulp is experiencing a downward trend, with significant fluctuations in prices and inventory levels indicating a bearish outlook for the near future [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - On November 20, the main contract for pulp futures opened at 5400.00 CNY/ton, with a price fluctuation range between 5402.00 CNY and 5288.00 CNY, resulting in a decline of approximately 2.25% [1]. - As of November 19, the top 20 futures companies held a total of 198,400 contracts in long positions and 208,400 contracts in short positions, leading to a long-to-short ratio of 0.95 and a net position of -10,000 contracts, which increased by 1,111 contracts from the previous day [1]. Group 2: Inventory Levels - As of November 20, 2025, the inventory level at major Chinese pulp ports was recorded at 2.173 million tons, reflecting an increase of 63,000 tons from the previous period, marking a 3.0% rise and indicating a continuous accumulation trend over the past two weeks [1]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange reported a decrease in warehouse receipts for pulp futures to 205,216 tons, down by 8,067 tons from the previous trading day, while factory warehouse receipts remained stable at 6,000 tons [1]. Group 3: Market Outlook - New Century Futures noted that the current market prices are stable, with needle pulp prices dropping by $20 to $680/ton and broadleaf pulp prices rising by $20 to $540/ton, suggesting weakened cost support for pulp prices [1]. - The paper industry is facing low profitability and high inventory pressure, leading to poor demand for high-priced pulp, as paper mills are primarily purchasing raw materials based on essential needs, which is bearish for pulp prices [1]. - Xinhuh Futures indicated that the recent price increase is primarily due to concerns over insufficient warehouse receipts for the January contract, but current prices are nearing those of high-quality brands outside of Russia, which may limit further price increases amid weakening macroeconomic sentiment [2].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Pulp Daily Report [1] - Report Date: September 4, 2025 [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 3: Core View - Cost - end guidance is limited, supply remains loose, and pulp is in low - level volatile adjustment awaiting peak - season demand [8] Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - Pulp futures 01 contract: The previous settlement price was 5340 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 5324 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.30%. The intended transaction price range of softwood pulp in the Shandong wood pulp market is 5000 - 6650 yuan/ton, with the low - end price stable compared to the previous trading day's closing price. The price of Shandong Silver Star is 5,750 yuan/ton [7] - Arauco's August pulp offers: Softwood pulp Silver Star at 720 USD/ton, unbleached pulp Venus at 590 USD/ton, hardwood pulp Star at 520 USD/ton, all stable compared to June [8] - World's 20 major pulp - producing countries' July chemical pulp shipments: Up 7.3% year - on - year, with softwood pulp up 4.1% and hardwood pulp up 11.1% [8] - July European port pulp inventory: Down 1.9% month - on - month and up 19.2% year - on - year [8] - July China's pulp imports: 2.877 million tons, down 5.1% month - on - month and up 23.7% year - on - year [8] - As of August 28, 2025, weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports: Up 1.23% month - on - month [8] - January - July profit of the papermaking and paper products industry: Down 21.9% year - on - year, with a slightly wider decline [8] Operation Suggestions - No operation suggestions provided in the report Group 5: Industry News - On September 2, Shanying Paper announced a shutdown and maintenance plan for the National Day. It involves 12 paper lines at multiple bases in Anhui, Zhejiang, Central China, Fujian, Guangdong, and Jilin, with shutdown durations ranging from 4 to 8 days from September 29 to October 6, affecting about 97,000 tons of boxboard and corrugated paper production capacity [9] - July European port total inventory: Down 1.91% month - on - month and up 19.19% year - on - year. Only the ports in the Netherlands, Belgium, France, and Switzerland saw a 1.72% month - on - month increase, while ports in the UK, Germany, Italy, and Spain decreased by 26.03%, 6.96%, 1.45%, and 7.22% respectively [9] Group 6: Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts including import softwood pulp spot prices in Shandong, pulp futures prices, pulp spot - futures price differences, softwood - hardwood price differences, inter - delivery price differences, warehouse receipt volume, domestic main port pulp inventory, European main port pulp inventory, prices and price differences of coated paper, offset paper, white cardboard, and whiteboard paper, and the US dollar - RMB exchange rate [15][17][19][28][29][32]