春节假期总结：历史最长春节假期驱动中长途客流增速高景气，票价良好增长 1)量端，国内游方面，根据交通运输部统计，2026除夕-正月初六全社会跨区域人员流动量同比增长 9.6%，其中铁路、民航客流各增长11.3%、7.7%。其中史上最长春节带动返乡+旅游，与中长途旅行相 关的民航、铁路显著改善;而邮轮等水上旅游产品回暖及海南封关带动琼州海峡客运量等推动水路客运 量同比增长29.8%;出入境游方面，据国家移民管理局，2026年春节假期日均出入境197.7万人次，较去 年春节假期日均增长10.1%。2)价端，根据DAST统计，春运前21天累计机票票价同比增长3.6%，预计 假期票价增速高于节前(2.22票价同比增长6.3%)。 智通财经APP获悉，兴业证券发布研报称，2026年提振内需成为经济发展重中之重，其中我国居民服务 消费对比海外具备较大提升潜力，有望成为国家在商品消费补贴进一步优化基础上的新抓手，金钱、时 间、供给侧约束都为政策提供良好着力点。板块资金配置处于历史低位且整体估值已反映诸多悲观预 期，该行建议重视2026年服务消费元年，伴随政策逐步向居民收入预期等传导，全年维度布局通胀预期 修复与细分景气两条 ...

Group 1 - The tourism ETF has risen over 4% as the travel sector, including airlines, hotels, and scenic spots, shows significant activity ahead of the Spring Festival holiday [1] - Spring and Autumn Tourism data indicates that the number of bookings for the winter and Spring Festival holidays has exceeded last year's figures, with domestic travel during the New Year holiday reaching 142 million trips, a year-on-year increase of 5.2% [2] - The Ministry of Culture and Tourism, along with other departments, has issued guidelines to encourage employee tourism and cultural consumption, aiming to enhance the consumption environment and release potential spending power [2] Group 2 - The "Two New" policy for 2026 aims to boost domestic demand, with a focus on enhancing service consumption, which has significant growth potential compared to overseas markets [3] - The policy includes a special bond issuance of 62.5 billion yuan to support the replacement of old consumer goods, optimizing subsidy standards and implementation mechanisms [3] - Analysts suggest that the upcoming Spring Festival holiday will continue the positive trend seen during the New Year holiday, with a focus on companies with strong earnings growth in the travel chain and related industries [3] Group 3 - Leading tourism companies are expected to benefit from policy support, with anticipated growth in employee cultural and sports consumption driving demand in the short term [4] - Measures such as scenic area annual tickets and cultural consumption vouchers are expected to further release consumer demand, presenting potential growth opportunities for the industry [4]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guosen Securities emphasizes that boosting domestic demand will be a key focus for economic development in 2026, with significant potential for growth in service consumption compared to overseas markets, supported by monetary, temporal, and supply-side constraints [1] Group 1: Sector Overview - Overall, there is a moderate recovery in the consumption sector, with service consumption growth outpacing goods consumption and restaurant growth, leading to an increasing share of service consumption [1] - Changes in demand, policy, and technology are driving structural shifts in the market, with younger consumers favoring experiential spending, while B2B demand remains at a low point [1] - Policy factors and globalization are influencing corporate decisions, leading to market reshuffling and transformations in industries like high-end dining, while outbound consumption remains a significant growth curve [1] Group 2: Market Performance - The consumer services sector has underperformed year-to-date, with overall gains of 14.55%, lagging behind the CSI 300 by 3.81 percentage points; however, the sector has shown signs of stabilization since Q4, outperforming the benchmark [2] - The proportion of holdings in consumer services sector funds has dropped to a historical low of 0.29% as of Q3 2025, down 0.10 percentage points from Q2 2025 [2] Group 3: Sub-industry Insights - Duty-Free: Domestic duty-free is expected to gradually capture high-end demand due to policy support and strengthened supply chains, potentially leading to a new cycle and valuation uplift [3] - Hotels: Opportunities arise from improving supply-demand dynamics, with steady growth in leisure tourism and a gradual bottoming out of business travel demand [3] - Scenic Areas: The performance of scenic areas is influenced by calendar effects, with a focus on trends that align with demographic changes and local asset integration [3] - OTA: Online Travel Agencies are likely to benefit directly from service consumption policies, with stable profit margins being the main trend [3] - Chain Dining: As delivery subsidies taper off, leading brands are innovating product lines to address market pressures, with potential for recovery if CPI trends improve [3] Group 4: Education Sector - The education sector is expected to maintain its attractiveness due to strong employment orientation and the relative lag in public examination recruitment and vocational training, alongside advancements in AI applications [4] Group 5: Human Resources - Human resources are viewed as a barometer for economic recovery, with a focus on improving labor sentiment among enterprises and the empowerment of AI technology [5]