2026年作为"十五五"开局第一年，市场对宏观经济基本面预期相对乐观，整体预期实际增速在5% 附近，实现压力不大。具体分领域来看： 基建方面，预计呈前高后低走势，增速维持在6.5%附近，温和修复态势下化债仍为财政核心任 务； 制造业在新质生产力政策推动下，高端化、智能化、绿色化步伐加快，叠加出口红利，投资同比预 计在8%附近； 房地产对经济的负面冲击逐步降低，销售小幅负增长、投资跌幅温和收窄，整体固投呈温和修复趋 势； 回到整个市场的定价上看，一方面，明年一旦市场对于宏观的叙事相对比较乐观，对于债券市场可 能会出现阶段性的承压。但是，我们觉得明年的整个经济依然是在整个"十五五"期间是一个经济增速的 换挡，所以整体的经济虽然完成指标压力不大，但它的整个弹性也并不是特别高。换句话说，明年对于 债券来说是一个相对比较友好的年份，债券市场可能会重新回到跟经济基本面保持一定相关性的市场风 格，大概率今年的这种脱敏的特征可能会阶段性地消除。 十年国债ETF（511260）核心价值凸显：配置端契合银行表外资产回表诉求，交易端可捕捉低利率 环境下的波段机会与票息收益，在市场回归基本面、波动加大的背景下，成为平衡风险与收益的优 ...

Core Insights - The ranking of China's top 100 cities by GDP for the first half of 2025 reveals a significant reshuffling in regional economies, with Shanghai leading at 26,222.15 billion yuan, followed by Beijing and Shenzhen [1][6][12] - The Yangtze River Delta cities continue to excel, with Hangzhou and Ningbo both achieving nominal growth rates exceeding 11%, while Suzhou recorded a strong growth rate of 7.82% [1][6][12] - The central and western regions also show promising growth, with Chengdu achieving an 8.57% growth rate and Xi'an making notable progress with a 640 billion yuan increase [1][3][12] - However, under the backdrop of global energy price fluctuations, Yulin is the only city on the list to experience negative GDP growth, while cities like Foshan and Changchun face challenges in their rankings [1][3][12] Regional Performance - **Shanghai**: Maintains the top position with a GDP of 26,222.15 billion yuan, showing a growth of 4.61% [6] - **Beijing**: Follows closely with a GDP of 25,029.2 billion yuan and a growth rate of 5.5% [6] - **Shenzhen**: Reports a GDP of 18,322.26 billion yuan, growing by 5.9% [6] - **Chengdu**: Achieves a GDP of 12,108.21 billion yuan with an impressive growth rate of 8.57% [7] - **Hangzhou**: Records a GDP of 11,302.72 billion yuan and a growth rate of 11.5% [7] - **Foshan**: Despite a historical high GDP of 6,366.87 billion yuan, its growth rate of 3.98% lags behind other cities [5][7] Challenges and Opportunities - **Longyan**: Struggles with a GDP of 1,737.26 billion yuan and a minimal growth rate of 2.01%, facing difficulties in industrial transformation [3][12] - **Changchun**: Shows a notable growth rate of 9.34% with a GDP of 3,754.88 billion yuan, driven by the automotive and rail industries [3][12] - **Foshan**: Experiences challenges in transitioning to new industries, with traditional sectors under pressure from real estate policies [5][12] - **Yulin**: The only city with negative growth at -0.55%, indicating significant economic challenges [9][12]

Economic Growth and Stock Market Performance - After World War II, Japan's economy began to recover in the early 1950s, achieving an average annual growth rate of 9.2% from 1953 to 1970, surpassing some developed countries [1] - Post-1970, Japan's economic growth rate declined as the advantages of being a latecomer diminished, with a significant drop in growth following the oil crisis and inflationary pressures [1] - From 1971 to 1990, Japan's economic growth rate stabilized around 4%, and further declined to approximately 1% after the real estate bubble burst in the early 1990s [1] Stock Market Returns - From 1953 to 2018, Japan's stock market yielded an average return of 5.5%, exceeding the economic growth rate of 4.3%, attributed to corporate leverage and the capital's advantageous position in income distribution [2] - Despite a downward trend in economic growth starting in the 1970s, stock market returns increased, with a notable rebound from -0.2% in 1983 to 17.2% in 1989 [2] - The rise in corporate profits during the transition phase was driven by industry restructuring and increased concentration in high-end manufacturing sectors such as precision instruments, automotive, and electrical machinery [2] Impact of Economic Conditions on Stock Returns - Following the real estate bubble burst in the early 1990s, Japan's stock market returns fell to 1.3% by 2018, although still above the 1% economic growth rate [3] - The Bank of Japan's stock purchases and subsequent quantitative easing measures supported stock market returns post-2002 [3] - Between 1971 and 1990, there was a positive correlation between government bond yields and stock returns, influenced by capital control relaxation and declining savings rates, while post-1991, the relationship reversed due to declining economic growth and worsening corporate profits [3]