【原油】 周末，美以联合对伊朗发动军事打击，造成伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊及多名高级官员身亡。作为回 应，伊朗随即对美以目标发起代号为"真实承诺4"的军事行动，她区局势由此前对峙迅速升级为全 面军事对抗。伊朗宣布禁止任何船只通过霍尔木兹海峡。随着通航中断，该海峡目前已处于事实关 闭状态。受此影响,国际油价今日开盘跳空上涨,布伦特原油价格一度上涨近13%,触及每桶82美 元，随后回落至78美元，涨幅仍超7%。内盘SC原油期货预计开盘涨停。在美以与伊朗军事对抗持 续、霍尔木兹海峡恢复通航之前,地缘风险将对原油价格形成持续支撑。 【贵金属】 周末美以对伊朗展开军事行动,伊朗领袖哈梅内伊和多位高官身亡,伊朗对以色列和周边美军基地 实施报复打击。短期避险情绪将助推贵金属偏强运行，特朗普称对伊朗的军事行动可能持续4周，后 续走势需要看战争向谈判方向演绎还是向更大烈度扩张。 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2026年03月02日 【铜】 上周五伦铜在高显性库存压制下回吐涨幅，沪铜交投区间稳定在密集均线上方。中东地缘局势发展 势态，将显著影响油价，相对支撑美元指数，对贵金属的配置溢价主要关注局势 ...

证券研究报告｜资产配置跟踪周报 2025 年 2 月 24 日 大同证券研究中心 分析师：景剑文 执业证书编号： S0770523090001 邮箱：jingjw@dtsbc.com.cn 地址：山西太原长治路 111 号 山西世贸中心 A 座 F12、F13 网址： 新年新气象 市场或迎"暖春" 【20260209-20260215】 核心观点 大类资产总览：节前仍显波动，但暖意初现。 节前一周，权益市场波动幅度仍然较大，叠加前期获利资金 的了结与板块的轮动，市场经历了频繁且大幅的波动，这种 波动在节前稍显缓和，但依旧存在，在长假期带来的不确定 性中，场内资金仍处于分歧与调整的阶段。但同样也可以看 出，在历经了为期两周的调整后，节前市场虽有波动，但暖 意初现，一方面，场内成交金额持续维持较高区间，对市场 形成有效支撑；另一方面，投资者虽对长假期所带来的短期 不确定性有一定担忧，但中长期对市场依然有较大信心，因 此，前期的回调并未对市场引起较大的扰动。而债市则迎来 短期"蜜月周期"，资金面的持续宽松和权益市场、商品市 场逸散的低风险资金，都为债市短期是上行带来了充足的资 金补充。商品市场仍在回落，贵金属前期过 ...

Macro Insights - The average weekly working hours for corporate employees decreased to 48.43 hours, lower than in 2023 and 2024, but still above pre-pandemic levels[2] - The reduction in working hours has led to an increase in leisure time, with over 54.5 hours of leisure time available weekly, which is expected to boost consumer spending[2] Strategy Insights - The nomination of Waller as Fed Chair has raised hawkish monetary policy expectations, causing the dollar index to rebound and impacting emerging markets and commodities negatively[4] - Future market stability may depend on the Fed's interest rate decisions and the performance of various asset classes, with a focus on sectors benefiting from the 14th Five-Year Plan[4] Fixed Income Insights - The bond market sentiment index rose to 116.1, indicating a slight recovery in market sentiment[5] - The average duration for funds increased to 1.39 years, while the duration for insurance decreased to 7.56 years, reflecting varying risk appetites across sectors[7] Banking Insights - New regulations on digital currencies were introduced to mitigate risks associated with virtual currencies, emphasizing the illegal status of such currencies compared to legal tender[9] - The new regulations also include management requirements for Real World Asset (RWA) tokenization, aiming to prevent speculative activities in the market[10]

Report Investment Rating - No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Last week (2026.01.26 - 2026.01.30), the A - share market was volatile and differentiated, with high trading volume, extreme differentiation, and rapid rotation. The market's driving logic shifted from macro - cycle trading to micro - performance verification, and it's advisable to focus on mid - stream industries with profitability repair and ROE improvement [2][3][11][12][13] - The bond market was volatile last week, and the current environment is favorable for the bond market. The 10 - year Treasury yield is expected to gradually decline towards 1.80%. In the context of increased volatility in the equity market, the relative value of bond coupon allocation has increased [4][14] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission released a draft for public comments on amending the information disclosure rules for public funds, aiming to guide the industry to focus on the concepts of "long - term investment and value investment" [5][17] Weekly Market Observation 1.1 Equity Market Review and Observation - Last week, the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 rose 0.1%, the CSI 500 fell 2.6%, and the ChiNext fell 0.1%. The market was characterized by extreme differentiation and rapid rotation under high trading volume, with more stocks falling than rising [2][11] - Market funds were in a fierce game between inflation trading and the technology growth theme. "Price trends" were the guiding principle in the first half of the week, and later, policies and performance became the main drivers of style switching. The annual performance forecast disclosure was a key factor for individual stock trends [3][12] - The market's driving logic shifted from macro - cycle trading to micro - performance verification. Funds tended to seek more balanced and performance - supported allocations, and it's recommended to focus on mid - stream industries [13] 1.2 Pan - Fixed - Income Market Review and Observation - Last week, the bond market was volatile. The 1 - year Treasury yield rose 1.80BP to 1.30%, the 10 - year yield declined 1.86BP to 1.81%, and the 30 - year yield rose 0.19BP to 2.29%. The 10 - year yield is expected to gradually decline towards 1.80% [4][14] - The current environment is favorable for the bond market. The central bank maintains stable liquidity, and the cautious economic growth targets in many places ease the market's expectations of strong fiscal stimulus. The bond market sentiment is gradually improving [4][14] - Last week, the U.S. Treasury yield curve steepened. The 1 - year yield declined 5BP to 3.48%, the 2 - year yield declined 8BP to 3.52%, and the 10 - year yield rose 2BP to 4.26%. The appointment of Kevin Warsh as the Fed Chairman affected the U.S. Treasury yield curve [15] - The CSI REITs Total Return Index rose 0.47% last week, with municipal environmental protection and highways leading the gains. Ten new public REITs made progress in the primary market [15] 1.3 Public Fund Market Dynamics - On January 30, 2026, the China Securities Regulatory Commission released a draft for public comments on amending the information disclosure rules for public funds. The new rules require adding the medium - to - long - term performance of the past 7 and 10 years, no longer disclosing the past 1 - month performance, and adding disclosure requirements such as fair trading, employee fund - holding, and trading unit leasing [5][17] Fund Index Performance Tracking 2.1 Equity Strategy Theme - Based Index - **Active Stock Fund Selection**: The index selects 15 funds each period, with equal - weight allocation. The core positions select active equity funds based on performance competitiveness and style stability, and balance the style according to the CSI Equity - Oriented Fund Index. The performance benchmark is the CSI Equity - Oriented Fund Index [21][22] 2.2 Investment Style - Based Index - **Value Stock Fund Selection**: It selects 10 funds of deep - value, quality - value, and balanced - value styles. The performance benchmark is the CSI 800 Value Index [25] - **Balanced Stock Fund Selection**: It selects 10 relatively balanced and value - growth style funds. The performance benchmark is the CSI 800 [25][26] - **Growth Stock Fund Selection**: It selects 10 funds of active - growth, quality - growth, and balanced - growth styles. The performance benchmark is the 800 Growth Index [29] 2.3 Industry Theme - Based Index - **Pharmaceutical Stock Fund Selection**: It selects 15 funds with an average purity of no less than 60% in the pharmaceutical industry. The performance benchmark is the pharmaceutical theme fund index [32][33] - **Consumer Stock Fund Selection**: It selects 10 funds with an average purity of no less than 50% in the consumer industry. The performance benchmark is the consumer theme fund index [33][34] - **Technology Stock Fund Selection**: It selects 10 funds with an average purity of no less than 60% in the technology industry. The performance benchmark is the technology theme fund index [37] - **High - End Manufacturing Stock Fund Selection**: It selects 10 funds with an average purity of no less than 50% in the high - end manufacturing industry. The performance benchmark is the high - end manufacturing theme fund index [42][43] - **Cyclical Stock Fund Selection**: It selects 5 funds with an average purity of no less than 50% in the cyclical industry. The performance benchmark is the cyclical theme fund index [45][46] 2.4 Money - Market Enhancement Index - **Money - Market Enhancement Strategy**: The index aims for liquidity management, pursues a curve that exceeds money - market funds and is smoothly upward. It mainly allocates money - market funds and inter - bank certificate of deposit index funds. The performance benchmark is the CSI Money - Market Fund Index [48] 2.5 Pure Bond Index - **Short - Term Bond Fund Selection**: It selects 5 funds with stable long - term returns, strict drawdown control, and significant absolute - return ability. The performance benchmark is 50% * Short - Term Pure Bond Fund Index + 50% * Ordinary Money - Market Fund Index [52] - **Medium - and Long - Term Bond Fund Selection**: It selects 5 medium - and long - term pure bond funds with both return and drawdown control, and adjusts the duration and the ratio of credit bond and interest - rate bond funds according to the market [54] 2.6 Fixed - Income + Index - **Low - Volatility Fixed - Income + Selection**: The equity center is 10%. It selects 10 funds with an equity center of less than 15%. The performance benchmark is 10% CSI 800 Index+90% ChinaBond New Composite Full - Price Index [57] - **Medium - Volatility Fixed - Income + Selection**: The equity center is 20%. It selects 5 funds with an equity center between 15% - 25%. The performance benchmark is 20% CSI 800 Index+80% ChinaBond New Composite Full - Price Index [60] - **High - Volatility Fixed - Income + Selection**: The equity center is 30%. It selects 5 funds with an equity center between 25% - 35%. The performance benchmark is 30% CSI 800 Index+70% ChinaBond New Composite Full - Price Index [63] 2.7 Other Pan - Fixed - Income Index - **Convertible Bond Fund Selection**: It selects 5 convertible bond funds based on an evaluation system from multiple dimensions. The sample space requires a high proportion of convertible bond investment [66] - **QDII Bond Fund Selection**: It selects 6 QDII bond funds with stable returns and good risk control based on credit and duration [69] - **REITs Fund Selection**: It selects 10 REITs funds with stable operation, reasonable valuation, and certain elasticity based on the underlying asset type [70]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the volatility and differentiation in the A-share market, with significant trading activity and a tendency for individual stocks to decline more than rise, indicating a competitive environment between inflation trades and technology growth themes [3][8][10] - The market's performance is influenced by price trends in commodities and technology sectors, with notable fluctuations in gold, silver, copper, NAND flash memory, and cloud computing services, reflecting a high sensitivity to marginal changes [3][10] - The ongoing anti-involution policies are leading to negative investment growth across various industries, suggesting a future supply contraction, while demand stabilizes under fiscal stimulus and economic recovery, reinforcing performance recovery for leading companies [3][10] Group 2 - In the bond market, there was a mixed performance with the 1-year government bond yield rising by 1.80 basis points to 1.30%, while the 10-year yield fell by 1.86 basis points to 1.81%, indicating a stabilizing trend in the bond market [4][11] - The central bank's commitment to maintaining stable liquidity supports the bond market, and cautious economic growth targets in various regions alleviate expectations for strong fiscal stimulus [4][11] - The overall sentiment in the bond market is gradually improving, with expectations that the 10-year government bond yield may trend down towards 1.80% in the near future, enhancing the relative value of bond coupon allocations [4][11] Group 3 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has proposed new guidelines for public fund disclosures, emphasizing long-term performance over short-term results, which aims to promote a focus on long-term and value investing within the industry [13][14] - The new disclosure requirements include the addition of long-term performance metrics for funds over 7 and 10 years, and the elimination of one-month performance disclosures, reflecting a shift towards more sustainable investment practices [13][14]

新高下的贵金属价格展望 20260127 摘要 全球秩序不稳定性、对美联储政策独立性的疑虑以及地缘政治风险推动 避险资金涌入贵金属，支撑贵金属长牛趋势。 2026 年 A 股或过渡到业绩驱动行情，贵金属板块业绩释放确定性相对 较强，尤其是龙头股票值得重点关注。 黄金长期上涨逻辑在于信用货币体系面临挑战，美国政策动摇美元信用， 黄金作为替代品仍有上涨空间，或可达 5,000 美元水平。 白银供求关系存在缺口，光伏、新能源等需求增加，开采量下降导致低 库存，叠加全球财政扩张和供应链影响，白银或有较大机会。 美联储降息预期和地缘政治风险共同作用，支撑贵金属价格，尽管短期 涨幅较大可能调整，但总体向上空间仍然存在。 贵金属市场趋势性逻辑包括通胀交易（海外需求驱动）、美元信用坍塌 （中期选举影响）以及迷姆交易（社群流量推动）。 短期内需关注美联储会议不降息及美国政府关门概率上升，可能导致贵 金属市场波动加剧，但提供观察趋势交易时机的机会。 Q&A 贵金属板块在 2026 年的投资前景如何？有哪些值得关注的股票？ 2026 年 A 股大概率从估值驱动行情逐步过渡到业绩牛行情。在这样的环境下， 尤其在一季度，大家对业绩和景 ...

过去一周，投资者已从与比特币相关的基金中撤出超过13亿美元，这是加密货币ETF整体撤资的一部分。 黄金连续第二日站在5000美元上方，继续被看好，但也有分析师警示短期调整风险。 而在本轮投资者转向贵金属和股票来对冲通胀风险的背景下，加密货币的交易逻辑被打破，投资价值越发受到市 场质疑。 间以来，也在积极在投资组合中增持黄金。因此，我们觉得可能黄金的价格有点超涨了，或者涨速有点过快了， 所以短期有可能会有回撤，而且回撤幅度可能比较大。" 此外，虽然市场普遍预期美联储本周将暂停降息，但投资者同时正等待特朗普提名下一任美联储主席。如果继任 者的立场更加"鸽派"，市场将调升今年降息预期，这对黄金来说会是一个新利好消息。 黄金第二日站稳5000美元上方 受地缘政治风险和投资者抛售主权债券及货币的推动，美元走软，金价今日连续第二天维持在5000美元/盎司上 方，一度上涨1.3%，连续第七个交易日走高延续了此前的强劲涨势。美国总统特朗普威胁要提高对韩国商品的关 税，美元则跌至近四年来的最低点，因为市场猜测美国可能出手相助日本支撑日元。白银价格也上涨近7%。 过去两年金价已翻了一番多，凸显了黄金作为市场恐慌情绪指标的地位。金 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. military confirmed a large-scale airstrike against ISIS targets in Syria as part of "Operation Eagle Eye," which was initiated in response to the deaths of two U.S. soldiers and a civilian translator in a prior attack [2] - The airstrikes occurred on December 10, 2025, targeting multiple locations associated with the extremist group [2] Group 2 - President Trump threatened intervention in Iran, stating that the U.S. is prepared to provide "help" amid ongoing protests and unrest due to rising prices and currency devaluation [3] - The Iranian military declared its commitment to defend national interests and urged citizens to unite against perceived foreign conspiracies, particularly from Israel and terrorist organizations [5] - The Israeli military is closely monitoring the situation in Iran but currently has no offensive intentions, focusing instead on defensive preparations [5] Group 3 - President Trump signed an executive order to protect Venezuelan oil revenues stored in U.S. Treasury accounts from being seized or entangled in legal proceedings, declaring a national emergency [7][8] - The executive order aims to ensure that these funds remain available to support U.S. foreign policy objectives regarding Venezuela's economic and political stability [7] Group 4 - The non-ferrous metals market has experienced significant price increases, driven by macroeconomic policies and strong demand in sectors like electric grid infrastructure [10] - Analysts noted that copper has shown particularly strong performance due to solid fundamentals, while aluminum faces potential demand risks despite current price strength [10][11] - The overall market sentiment is influenced by expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, which have bolstered prices across various metals [11][12]

2026年作为"十五五"开局第一年，市场对宏观经济基本面预期相对乐观，整体预期实际增速在5% 附近，实现压力不大。具体分领域来看： 基建方面，预计呈前高后低走势，增速维持在6.5%附近，温和修复态势下化债仍为财政核心任 务； 制造业在新质生产力政策推动下，高端化、智能化、绿色化步伐加快，叠加出口红利，投资同比预 计在8%附近； 房地产对经济的负面冲击逐步降低，销售小幅负增长、投资跌幅温和收窄，整体固投呈温和修复趋 势； 回到整个市场的定价上看，一方面，明年一旦市场对于宏观的叙事相对比较乐观，对于债券市场可 能会出现阶段性的承压。但是，我们觉得明年的整个经济依然是在整个"十五五"期间是一个经济增速的 换挡，所以整体的经济虽然完成指标压力不大，但它的整个弹性也并不是特别高。换句话说，明年对于 债券来说是一个相对比较友好的年份，债券市场可能会重新回到跟经济基本面保持一定相关性的市场风 格，大概率今年的这种脱敏的特征可能会阶段性地消除。 十年国债ETF（511260）核心价值凸显：配置端契合银行表外资产回表诉求，交易端可捕捉低利率 环境下的波段机会与票息收益，在市场回归基本面、波动加大的背景下，成为平衡风险与收益的优 ...

| 代码 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 ▼ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 003029 吉大正元 | 28.41 | 1.54 | 5.73% | | 000543 皖能电力 | 8.80 | 0.42 | 5.01% | | 688027 国盾量子 | 524.94 | 20.90 | 4.15% | | 688561 奇安信-U | 35.42 | 0.86 | 2.49% | | 300757 | 217.62 | 4.62 | 2.17% | | 300520 科大国创 | 37.23 | 0.70 | 1.92% | | 002212 天融信 | 8.85 | 0.14 | 1.61% | 据ETO Markets的消息，2025年12月23日，沪深港三地市场携手高开，在全年成交额首次突破400万亿元 的历史纪录衬托下，A股迎来"收官周"的暖场戏。 国内商品指数刷新半年高位，与A股400万亿成交遥相呼应，共同勾勒出一幅"股期联动、通胀交易"的 跨年图景。 展望后市，机构普遍认为，在政策"稳中求进"与流动性合理充裕的组合下，A股有望延续"权重搭台、 题材唱戏"的结 ...