2026年作为"十五五"开局第一年，市场对宏观经济基本面预期相对乐观，整体预期实际增速在5% 附近，实现压力不大。具体分领域来看： 基建方面，预计呈前高后低走势，增速维持在6.5%附近，温和修复态势下化债仍为财政核心任 务； 制造业在新质生产力政策推动下，高端化、智能化、绿色化步伐加快，叠加出口红利，投资同比预 计在8%附近； 房地产对经济的负面冲击逐步降低，销售小幅负增长、投资跌幅温和收窄，整体固投呈温和修复趋 势； 回到整个市场的定价上看，一方面，明年一旦市场对于宏观的叙事相对比较乐观，对于债券市场可 能会出现阶段性的承压。但是，我们觉得明年的整个经济依然是在整个"十五五"期间是一个经济增速的 换挡，所以整体的经济虽然完成指标压力不大，但它的整个弹性也并不是特别高。换句话说，明年对于 债券来说是一个相对比较友好的年份，债券市场可能会重新回到跟经济基本面保持一定相关性的市场风 格，大概率今年的这种脱敏的特征可能会阶段性地消除。 十年国债ETF（511260）核心价值凸显：配置端契合银行表外资产回表诉求，交易端可捕捉低利率 环境下的波段机会与票息收益，在市场回归基本面、波动加大的背景下，成为平衡风险与收益的优 ...

| 代码 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 ▼ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 003029 吉大正元 | 28.41 | 1.54 | 5.73% | | 000543 皖能电力 | 8.80 | 0.42 | 5.01% | | 688027 国盾量子 | 524.94 | 20.90 | 4.15% | | 688561 奇安信-U | 35.42 | 0.86 | 2.49% | | 300757 | 217.62 | 4.62 | 2.17% | | 300520 科大国创 | 37.23 | 0.70 | 1.92% | | 002212 天融信 | 8.85 | 0.14 | 1.61% | 据ETO Markets的消息，2025年12月23日，沪深港三地市场携手高开，在全年成交额首次突破400万亿元 的历史纪录衬托下，A股迎来"收官周"的暖场戏。 国内商品指数刷新半年高位，与A股400万亿成交遥相呼应，共同勾勒出一幅"股期联动、通胀交易"的 跨年图景。 展望后市，机构普遍认为，在政策"稳中求进"与流动性合理充裕的组合下，A股有望延续"权重搭台、 题材唱戏"的结 ...

Domestic Economic Outlook - November high-frequency data generally weaker than seasonal trends, indicating a need for more growth-stabilizing policies to support early 2026 economic recovery[2] - October industrial enterprise profit growth fell to -5.5%, a significant drop from 21.6% and 20.4% in August and September respectively, reflecting weak domestic demand[21] - November PMI data shows manufacturing PMI at 49.2, indicating continued contraction, while non-manufacturing PMI decreased to 49.5[21] International Economic Insights - Revelio Labs predicts a loss of 9,000 non-farm jobs in the U.S. for October, primarily due to government employment declines from shutdowns[2] - December FOMC likely to implement a 25 basis point rate cut, with a hawkish outlook for future rate cuts in Q1 2026 due to inflation pressures[2] Asset Market Trends - Anticipated "spring rally" in the domestic market driven by technology growth, with potential buying opportunities in mid to late December[3] - U.S. AI and inflation trades are shifting from exclusion to resonance, suggesting a prolonged easing cycle to maintain the bull market until H2 2026[3] - December is expected to see hawkish rate cuts alongside rising interest rate expectations in Japan, leading to uncertainty in U.S. equities for the following month[3] Monetary Policy and Liquidity - Overall liquidity remains stable, with a slight increase in benchmark rates by approximately 0.79 basis points[23] - The central bank's open market operations have tightened, with a total reverse repo injection of 15,118 billion yuan for the week[23] Market Performance Overview - A-share market shows a rebound, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 1.40% this week, while the Hang Seng Index increased by 2.53%[42] - Gold prices have surpassed 4,200, while crude oil experienced slight declines[40]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the industry [1] Core Views - The report highlights a return of inflation trading, with consumer goods showing a positive trend in performance [1][8] - The overall industry size is significant, with a total market capitalization of 18,186 billion and a circulating market capitalization of 16,721.2 billion [1] Summary by Sections Macroeconomic Analysis - Retail sales growth year-on-year is at 2.9%, with a slight recovery in October due to the holiday effect, showing a month-on-month increase of 0.16% [6] - The restaurant sector saw a year-on-year revenue increase of 3.8% in October, while jewelry sales surged by 37.6% [6][7] - Service retail sales grew by 5.3% year-on-year from January to October, indicating a gradual recovery in service consumption [7] Food and Beverage Sector - October inflation data exceeded expectations, with both CPI and PPI showing improvements, suggesting a potential recovery in profitability for the food and beverage sector [8] - Companies like Haidilao and Anjuke are expected to perform well due to improved demand and operational strategies [9][10] Textile and Apparel Sector - The textile manufacturing sector is experiencing stable overseas demand, with major brands like NIKE showing signs of recovery [12] - Recommendations include focusing on leading manufacturers with optimized order structures and production efficiency [12] Tobacco Sector - The report recommends companies like Smoore International and China Tobacco Hong Kong, highlighting their stable growth and market positioning [16] Home Appliances Sector - The report suggests focusing on leading white goods manufacturers like Midea Group, which has shown stable operational performance [17] Retail and E-commerce - The report notes a significant increase in e-commerce sales during the Double Eleven shopping festival, with a total sales growth of 14.2% [24] - Companies like JD.com are expected to maintain robust growth, with a projected non-GAAP net profit of 318 billion for 2025 [25] Pharmaceutical Sector - The report emphasizes the importance of innovation in the pharmaceutical industry, recommending companies like Innovent Biologics and 3SBio for their strong project pipelines [27] Agriculture Sector - The report indicates a rapid reduction in sow production capacity, suggesting a potential increase in pig prices in 2026 [28]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the "anti-involution" policy aimed at optimizing supply-demand structures and promoting inflation recovery, which has been strengthened since September 2025 [2][3][5] - The current market shows a clear high-low switching phenomenon, with cyclical industries such as coal, petrochemicals, and non-ferrous metals performing well [2][7] Key Points and Arguments Anti-Involution Policy - The anti-involution policy aims to clear supply first and stimulate demand later, optimizing the supply-demand structure to promote inflation recovery [3][6] - The policy has been increasingly enforced since September 2025, with a focus on regulating production behaviors and eliminating irrational competition [2][3][5] - Specific measures include supply-side constraints and governance of low-price competition in various sectors, including electronics and steel [5][6] Market Impact - The anti-involution policy is expected to have both short-term and long-term impacts on the equity market, with a positive catalyst effect on prices and performance over the next year [6] - The policy is anticipated to lead to a deeper adjustment of the capacity cycle over the next 3-5 years, similar to the supply-side structural reforms initiated in 2016 [6][8] Sector Performance - The cyclical industries benefiting from the anti-involution and inflation trading include non-ferrous metals, steel, coal, petrochemicals, and sectors like agriculture and logistics [2][11] - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing price increases due to capacity exits, while the wind power sector has seen an 18% increase in turbine prices [2][12] - In the lithium battery sector, the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate has doubled, and global energy storage demand is growing at over 50% [2][12] Steel Industry Insights - The steel industry is facing challenges with rising raw material prices but is expected to see a gradual recovery in steel prices and profits due to policy support [13][15][16] - Major companies like Baosteel and Hesteel are expected to benefit from the anti-involution policy, which supports advanced enterprises [3][14][16] Polyester and PTA Industry - The polyester and PTA industry is characterized by high concentration, with supply growth lagging behind demand growth, leading to a healthy supply-demand relationship [17][18] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is taking measures to potentially reduce production or curb new capacity, benefiting integrated companies [18] Organic Silicon Industry - The organic silicon industry has not seen new capacity since 2025, with demand growing rapidly at 24% in the first half of the year [19][20] - A recent meeting led by state-owned enterprises aims to reduce capacity by 30%, which could improve profitability and market concentration [20] Livestock Industry - The livestock industry has faced challenges, with pig prices dropping to a four-year low, leading to a shift towards capacity reduction [21][22] - Major companies are actively reducing production in response to policy adjustments [21] Express Delivery Industry - The express delivery sector has implemented anti-involution measures, resulting in price increases across the industry [23][24] - Companies like YTO Express and Shentong Express have reported increased revenue per shipment, indicating successful price adjustments [24][25][26] Recommendations - The conference recommends focusing on cyclical industries that benefit from tight supply and inflation trading logic, particularly in sectors like electric cells, metals, chemicals, agriculture, and transportation [10][11] - Specific express delivery companies such as YTO Express, Shentong Express, Jitu Express, and ZTO Express are highlighted as having strong performance potential under the anti-involution policy [27]

Market Movements - US stock index futures showed mixed results with Dow futures down 0.04%, S&P 500 futures up 0.17%, and Nasdaq futures up 0.18% [1] - European indices also saw positive movement, with Germany's DAX up 0.81%, UK's FTSE 100 up 0.17%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 up 0.39% [2][3] - WTI crude oil prices fell by 0.92% to $63.38 per barrel, while Brent crude oil dropped by 0.93% to $66.97 per barrel [3][4] Economic Concerns - Concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve are rising as President Trump attempts to influence the Fed and push for interest rate cuts, leading to increased inflation trading [5] - UBS warned of a 93% risk of recession in the US, describing the current economic state as "stable but high risk" [5] - Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari noted that tariffs are pushing up commodity inflation, complicating the Fed's goal of achieving a 2% inflation rate [6] Company News - Tesla announced the public launch of its Robotaxi service, expanding from a limited user base to a broader audience [9] - Apple plans to launch an AI-driven search tool next year to compete with OpenAI, integrating it into Siri and potentially other platforms [9] - Salesforce reported Q2 revenue growth of 9.8% to $10.2 billion, but its Q3 revenue outlook is slightly below Wall Street expectations, causing a nearly 7% pre-market drop [10] - C3.ai's Q1 revenue fell to $70.3 million, down from $87.2 million year-over-year, leading to a pre-market drop of over 13% [11] - Figma's Q2 revenue growth of 41% to approximately $249.6 million was below analyst expectations, resulting in a pre-market decline of over 14% [11]

Market Movements - As of the report, U.S. stock index futures showed mixed results with Dow futures down 0.04%, S&P 500 futures up 0.17%, and Nasdaq futures up 0.18% [1] - European indices also experienced gains, with Germany's DAX up 0.81%, UK's FTSE 100 up 0.17%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 up 0.39% [2][3] Oil Prices - WTI crude oil prices fell by 0.92% to $63.38 per barrel, while Brent crude oil prices decreased by 0.93% to $66.97 per barrel [3][4] Economic Concerns - Wall Street is increasingly worried about the independence of the Federal Reserve amid President Trump's attempts to influence it, with a 93% risk of recession indicated by UBS based on hard data from May to July 2025 [5] - UBS described the current economic situation as "stable but high risk," with credit market pressures raising the likelihood of recession to 41% [5] Federal Reserve Insights - Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari warned that tariffs are pushing up commodity inflation, complicating the Fed's goal of achieving a 2% inflation rate [6] - Atlanta Fed President Bostic supports a modest rate cut this year, contingent on future inflation and employment data [6] Gold Price Predictions - Goldman Sachs analysts predict that if the Fed's credibility is damaged, gold prices could soar, with a basic forecast of $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026 and a tail risk scenario suggesting prices could approach $5,000 per ounce [6] Small-Cap Stocks - The rebound in U.S. small-cap stocks has stalled due to concerns over interest rate cuts not being sufficient to support heavily indebted companies [7] - Analysts are focusing on profitable small-cap companies that can thrive in uncertain environments [7] Company News - Tesla announced the public launch of its Robotaxi service, expanding from a limited user base to a broader audience [8] - Apple plans to launch an AI-driven search tool next year to compete with OpenAI, integrating it into Siri and potentially other platforms [8] - Salesforce reported Q2 revenue growth of 9.8% to $10.2 billion, slightly above expectations, but its Q3 revenue outlook is below Wall Street's average forecast [9] - C3.ai's Q1 revenue fell to $70.3 million, down from $87.2 million year-over-year, raising concerns about its financial health [10] - Figma's Q2 revenue growth of 41% to approximately $249.6 million was below analyst expectations, leading to a significant drop in its stock price [10]

Group 1 - Concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve are increasing as President Trump attempts to influence the Fed and push for interest rate cuts [1][3] - Morgan Stanley's team indicates that market positions in stocks, bonds, and gold suggest investors are preparing for potential inflation due to Trump's actions [1] - Goldman Sachs analysts highlight growing worries about the credibility of U.S. institutions, which could lead to significant tail risks and a surge in commodity prices, including gold [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs predicts that gold prices could rise to $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026 under baseline scenarios, with potential peaks of $4,500 and nearly $5,000 if 1% of privately held U.S. debt shifts to gold [1] - Following Trump's public calls for lower borrowing costs, financial markets are increasingly betting on Fed rate cuts, with swap traders fully pricing in a September rate cut [3] - Investor concerns regarding the Fed's independence are reflected in the performance of value stocks, which tend to do better during periods of price pressure [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the recent trends in China's export data, indicating a high growth rate in July, influenced by lower base effects and rising raw material prices, while also noting a widening year-on-year decline in exports to the US, suggesting a cooling effect in the coming months [3][4] - The liquidity environment remains loose, with the central bank conducting a net withdrawal of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan in the open market, and interest rates for interbank deposits showing a decline, with 1Y AAA interbank deposit rates around 1.63% [3][4] Group 2 - In the primary market, there is an increase in subscription sentiment, with 52 bonds issued totaling 725.8 billion yuan, and a net financing amount of 536.7 billion yuan, indicating improved market conditions compared to July [4] - The secondary market continues its recovery trend, with the 10Y government bond yield falling below 1.7%, driven by a favorable liquidity environment and the conclusion of negative factors from the political bureau meeting [5][6] Group 3 - The outlook for the market suggests that after a cooling of inflation trading, internal and external demand pressures will return to focus, which is favorable for the bond market, especially with new tariffs imposed by the Trump administration [5][6] - The fiscal policy remains focused on implementing existing policies with limited potential for large-scale stimulus, which is beneficial for the bond market's recovery [5][6] - The monetary policy is characterized by a continuation of "moderate easing," with limited new policies expected, and the central bank showing willingness to maintain liquidity through various operations [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The bond market is expected to experience a phased recovery, but there is a lack of new catalysts for interest rates to break below the June fluctuation center. Therefore, the recovery space should not be overestimated. It is expected that the bond market will shift to a volatile pattern after the phased recovery in August, and opportunities in long - term varieties can be grasped during the recovery phase [7][79][80]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 2025 July Market Review 1.1 资金价格: 前松后紧 - In July 2025, the funding price showed a pattern of being loose in the first half and tight in the second half. In the first and middle ten - days, the central bank was willing to protect liquidity, and DR007 fluctuated around 1.5%. In the second half, the reverse repurchases over - issued during the tax period matured one after another, and the central bank chose to renew them in a reduced volume, which might intentionally tighten the funding side to cool down the equity market indirectly. DR007 rose rapidly above 1.6% at non - tax and non - end - of - month points. After the open market turned to net investment at the end of the month, the funding price eased to some extent [2][11][16]. 1.2 一级市场：政金债发行规模较高 - In July 2025, the issuance of treasury bonds decreased marginally, while the issuance scale of local bonds and policy - financial bonds increased. In terms of issuance, interest - rate bonds issued a total of 3.2 trillion yuan, a decrease of 150 billion yuan month - on - month. Among them, treasury bonds issued 1.2 trillion yuan, less than each month in the second quarter; local bonds issued 1.2 trillion yuan, the highest monthly level in 2025; policy - financial bonds issued 0.8 trillion yuan, the highest monthly issuance in history. In terms of net financing, the net financing of interest - rate bonds was 1.5 trillion yuan, a decrease of nearly 200 billion yuan month - on - month [11][18]. 1.3 二级市场：10Y国债收益率站上 1.7% - In the first and middle ten - days of July, the bond market was in a volatile pattern, with multiple factors overlapping but no main line. The bond market mainly focused on exploring variety spreads. In the second half of July, the bond market was under pressure as the Ya'an project started, boosting the total demand expectation, and the "inflation trade" became the main suppressing force in the bond market. The redemption pressure of bond funds and wealth management products also increased. It was not until the Politburo meeting at the end of July revealed the signal of "implementing existing policies" and the July PMI data showed that the fundamentals were still under pressure that the bond market had a slight recovery. As of July 31, the yield of 10 - year treasury bonds closed at 1.7%, up 6bp from the end of June [11][3][32]. 基本面展望：压力不容忽视 - The "rush - to - export" effect may be coming to an end, and the year - on - year growth rate of exports may decline in the next 1 - 2 months. Under the promotion of "anti - involution", the growth rates of industrial production and manufacturing investment may slow down. Infrastructure investment is expected to maintain a relatively high growth rate. Consumption data may decline periodically until new growth points emerge after the "trade - in" policy. PPI data may improve, and the year - on - year and month - on - month decline is expected to narrow. After the "inflation trade" sentiment cools down, external and internal demand pressures will return to the spotlight, which is still a favorable environment for the bond market [58][79]. 政策展望:存量政策"落实落细" 3.1 财政政策:政府债供给压力或加大 - In terms of fiscal revenue and expenditure, government - funded expenditures increased significantly in June. In terms of public fiscal revenue, the year - on - year decline in the first half of the year continued, but the revenue structure improved. In terms of public fiscal expenditure, the year - on - year increase in the first half of the year narrowed compared with January - May, and the expenditure rhythm slowed down, but the support for people's livelihood and the technology field did not decrease. In terms of government - funded revenue and expenditure, the revenue growth improved under the drive of a low base, and the expenditure side increased significantly. The Politburo meeting's policy statement on fiscal policy is generally positive for the bond market. In August, the supply pressure of government bonds may increase [62][68][69]. 3.2 货币政策:主要关注公开市场操作 - In June, the total and structure of financial data improved. The Politburo meeting in July continued the tone of "moderate easing" for monetary policy, but removed the expression of "timely reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts" compared with April. It is indicated that the central bank still has the intention to protect liquidity, and the necessity of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in August is not strong. Attention should be paid to the central bank's open - market operation dynamics [73][74]. 债市展望 - The bond market is expected to have a phased recovery, but the lack of new catalysts makes it difficult for interest rates to break below the June fluctuation center. It is expected to turn into a volatile pattern after the phased recovery in August, and long - term varieties can be considered during the recovery [79][80].