1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The economic situation shows a mixed picture, with some indicators improving while others facing challenges. The geopolitical situation, especially the Iran - US conflict, has significant impacts on the global economy, trade, and financial markets. Central banks are implementing various monetary policies to maintain economic stability and promote growth [1][2][13] - The bond market is expected to maintain a volatile and relatively strong performance in the second quarter, and attention should be paid to international situation changes and crude oil import conditions [21] - The stock market is volatile, with different sectors showing different trends, and the public - offering fund market is making progress in implementing performance comparison benchmark regulations [30][31] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data Overview - GDP growth in Q4 2025 was 4.5% year - on - year, lower than the previous quarter and the same period last year. The manufacturing PMI in March 2026 was 50.4%, up from the previous month. The non - manufacturing PMI: business activity was 50.1%, slightly down from the previous month [1] - In February 2026, social financing scale was 23855 billion yuan, M0, M1, and M2 year - on - year growth rates were 14.1%, 5.9%, and 9.0% respectively. New RMB loans were 9000 billion yuan. CPI was 1.3% year - on - year, and PPI was - 0.9% year - on - year [1] - In February 2026, fixed - asset investment cumulative year - on - year growth was 1.8%, and social consumer goods retail sales cumulative year - on - year growth was 2.8%. Exports and imports in February 2026 increased by 39.60% and 13.80% year - on - year respectively [1] 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - The US, Iran are willing to end the war, but Iran requires guarantees. The Iran - US conflict may cause significant GDP losses in Arab countries, rising unemployment, and increased poverty [2] - The Central Bank's Monetary Policy Committee suggests integrating incremental and stock policies, using various tools for monetary policy regulation, and maintaining financial market stability [3] 3.2.2 Metals - Goldman Sachs raised the Q2 2026 LME aluminum price forecast to $3450 from $3200. On March 31, domestic tin and copper inventories reached new lows, while aluminum inventory reached a new high [4] - Three Middle - Eastern aluminum plants cut production by about 2.63 million tons. On March 31, the gold持仓 of SPDR Gold Trust increased by 0.11% to 1047.28 tons [5] 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - In mid - March, the price of rebar increased by 0.83% month - on - month to 3189.1 yuan/ton, the price of coke decreased by 2.08% month - on - month to 1346.4 yuan/ton, and the price of coking coal increased by 0.4% month - on - month to 1420.7 yuan/ton [6] 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - US API crude oil inventory increased by 10.263 million barrels last week, causing oil prices to fall. Sadara Chemical Company temporarily shut down due to supply chain disruptions. Iran's oil discount has narrowed, and the average selling price has risen. The US Treasury Secretary said the oil market has a daily supply shortage of 10 - 12 million barrels [7] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - In mid - March, the prices of soybean meal, soybeans, and cotton increased by 6.82%, 2.98%, and 2.15% month - on - month respectively, reaching new highs [9] 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - On March 31, the central bank conducted 32.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 15 billion yuan [10] 3.3.2 Important News - The US and Iran are willing to end the war, but there is no formal negotiation yet. Iran listed 18 US ICT and AI - related companies as "legitimate targets" [11][12] - China's economic sentiment improved in March, with manufacturing, non - manufacturing, and comprehensive PMI output indexes all returning to the expansion range [14] - From January to February, state - owned enterprises' total operating income increased by 0.2% year - on - year, and the profit decreased by 2% year - on - year. The asset - liability ratio at the end of February was 65.4%, up 0.5 percentage points year - on - year [15] - A number of national regulations will be implemented in April. The Ministry of Finance announced the issuance arrangements for key - term, short - term, and ultra - long - term treasury bonds in Q2 2026 [15][16] - In February, government bond net financing decreased by 292.53 billion yuan year - on - year, and corporate bond net financing decreased by 18.02 billion yuan year - on - year. At the end of February, the bond market custody balance was 198.9 trillion yuan, with foreign institutions holding 3.4 trillion yuan [16] - New special bonds issuance accelerated in Q1 2026, reaching 1.1599 trillion yuan, a 21% increase from the same period in 2025 [17] - The trading association supported 370+ enterprises to issue 1.06 trillion yuan of science and technology innovation bonds. New bond indexes will be launched on April 1 [17][18] - Global central banks are selling US Treasury bonds at the fastest pace in more than a decade. The market trading logic has shifted from inflation trading to recession trading [18] - Some bond - related events include bond redemption options, asset transfers, and rating changes [19] 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - The inter - bank bond market was volatile, with most major interest - rate bond yields rising slightly. Treasury bond futures mostly strengthened. The inter - bank market liquidity was very loose [20][21] - The exchange - traded bond market had mixed performance, with some bonds rising and some falling. The convertible bond index and related indexes also showed different trends [21][22] - Money market interest rates mostly declined, and the yields of some domestic and foreign bonds also changed [22][24][25] 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose 49 basis points at the 16:30 close. The US dollar index fell 0.62%, and most non - US currencies rose [26] 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - CITIC Securities believes that accelerating the revitalization of existing assets helps local platforms transform and serve economic growth. The acceleration of government debt clearance for enterprises is expected to repair the balance sheets and valuations of industries such as construction [27][28] - CITIC Construction Investment believes that the "South - bound Bond Connect" meets the needs of institutional diversification, and the Hong Kong bond market may expand, providing more choices for global asset allocation [28] 3.4 Stock Market News - The A - share market declined, with some sectors rising and some falling. The Hong Kong stock market had a mixed performance, with the Hang Seng Index rising slightly and the Hang Seng Tech Index falling [30][31] - The public - offering fund market is making progress in implementing performance comparison benchmark regulations [31] 3.5 Today's Reminder - On April 1, 132 bonds were listed, 120 bonds were issued, 55 bonds were due for payment, and 173 bonds paid principal and interest [29]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical pricing in the second quarter of the stock index has changed from chaos to clarity. The Middle - East situation is becoming more complex, and the war situation will affect the fundamentals of equity assets. It is expected that the US and Iran will go through a process of "war expansion - negotiation and compromise" in the second quarter. A - shares may experience a V - shaped trend in the second quarter. In the short term, the A - share bull market is tested, but in the medium term, the technology industry represented by artificial intelligence is still the main line of the A - share bull market. It is recommended to go long on the IM futures with higher technology content on dips [92] - High oil prices will lead to an increase in global energy and trade costs, and have an impact on China's imports and exports, inflation, and economic growth. The PPI and CPI are expected to rise, and the global economic growth is predicted to decline [21][53][67] - The Chinese government is taking measures to expand domestic demand and promote economic structural adjustment, such as increasing investment in infrastructure and adjusting policies on consumption and investment [79] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 China - Iran and China - Persian Gulf Seven - Country Trade - Iran's direct trade volume with China is small, with a trade surplus of less than $4 billion. After the US sanctions in 2018, the direct trade between China and Iran decreased [5] - China's exports to the eight countries including Iran and the seven Persian - Gulf countries have been increasing in the past five years. In 2025, the total export amount to the eight countries was $169.27 billion, accounting for 4.3%. China's imports from the seven Persian - Gulf countries accounted for 6.1% of the total imports, and the trade deficit turned positive in 2025, reaching $5.7 billion [6][16] - If trade with the seven Persian - Gulf countries is interrupted, China's exports will decrease by 4.3% and imports by 6.1%. China's import dependence on these countries is mainly concentrated in crude oil, natural gas, chemical raw materials, and plastic products, and some products have a share of over 20%. The export of carpets, textiles, motor vehicles, steel products, and electromechanical products may be damaged [25][29] 3.2 Energy and Market Impact - The Strait of Hormuz is crucial for China. About 200 - 210 million barrels of crude oil pass through it every day, accounting for about 20% of the world's seaborne oil. The liquefied natural gas transportation accounts for about 20% of the world, and the methanol transportation accounts for about 35% of the world. The closure of the strait will lead to an increase in global energy and trade costs [21] - Crude oil accounts for 18.2% of China's total energy consumption, and the external dependence is about 72%. The crude oil imported from the seven Persian - Gulf countries accounts for about 40% of the total imported crude oil. China's oil reserves can support about 100 days. If the war persists and the strait is blocked, it will impact the economic growth [34] - Before the US - Iran war, the global equity assets were in a bull market. After the war, the global risk assets were under pressure, and the stock markets generally declined. In March, only the energy and mineral sectors rose, while the technology stocks and HALO assets fell significantly [38][46] 3.3 A - share Market Performance - In March, A - shares fell in line with the global stock markets. The rising sectors include energy (coal, power utilities, and new energy), defense (banks, public utilities), and AI infrastructure (communications). The falling sectors are mainly HALO heavy - hitters such as non - ferrous metals, steel, and building materials, concept stocks such as military industry, and technology stocks such as media and computer [49] - At the tertiary industry level, coal chemical industry, lithium batteries, new energy power generation, and optical communications performed well [50] 3.4 Inflation and Economic Growth - The increase in oil prices has led to an unexpected rise in PPI and CPI. In March, the PPI is expected to approach 0 year - on - year, turn positive in the second quarter, and the annual central level will rise to about 0.5%, 1.5% higher than the initial forecast. The CPI is expected to rise to about 1%, 1% higher than the initial forecast [60] - China's exports increased significantly in the first two months, but the impact of the US - Israel - Iran conflict on the global economy will be apparent from the second quarter. The OECD estimated in March that the GDP growth rate in the four quarters of this year will decline by 0.12, 0.23, 0.31, and 0.33 percentage points respectively compared with the February forecast [67] - China's economic growth is more dependent on foreign trade, and domestic demand is weak. The fiscal stimulus in 2026 is limited, and the incremental content is mainly in policy - based financial instruments and special funds for expanding domestic demand [72] 3.5 Policy and Industry Development - The government's work report in 2026 emphasizes building a strong domestic market, with a re - balance between consumption and investment, and an increase in support for fixed - asset investment. The positions of rural revitalization, new urbanization, and improving people's livelihood are advanced [79][80] - The National Development and Reform Commission will invest more than 7 trillion yuan in "six networks" and key areas this year, and the scale of artificial - intelligence - related industries will exceed 10 trillion yuan by the end of the 15th Five - Year Plan. The Ministry of Commerce focuses on service consumption, the central bank focuses on supporting domestic demand, innovation, and small and medium - sized enterprises, and the Ministry of Finance provides loan interest subsidies for individuals and enterprises [84] - Although the valuation of technology stocks is still high, their structure is relatively healthy after the profit upward revision and valuation downward revision in the fourth quarter of last year. The non - technology stocks have relatively mild changes in valuation and profit. The policy support for the technology industry is obvious [91]

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - In Q2 2026, the global macro - economy will move forward steadily with policy shifts, demand recovery, and risk mitigation. The gap between Europe and the US will narrow, and emerging markets will maintain relatively high growth. The Middle - East geopolitical conflicts will cause oil price fluctuations, and inflation expectations will rise. The core variables for the market are the rhythm of monetary policy, inflation path, and geopolitical evolution. The global economy is seeking re - balance in a weak recovery, with more resilience than downside risks [6][106]. - Domestic crude oil futures will enter a five - fold game stage of geopolitical premium convergence, supply restoration, demand peak - season verification, inventory re - balance, and recession expectation suppression. The extreme market in Q1 will end, and the price will return to a pattern dominated by supply - demand fundamentals, with a high - level, volatile, and slightly downward trend. The core driver will shift from "supply panic" to "real - world constraints and rhythm game" [6]. - The supply side will change from "extremely tight" in Q1 to "marginally loose" in Q2. The demand side will enter a stage of peak - season recovery, structural differentiation, and limited resilience. The inventory side will shift from a low - level tight balance to slow inventory accumulation, which will be the core constraint on the market [6]. - Overall, in Q2, the supply - demand of domestic crude oil futures will be in a loose balance pattern of supply restoration, moderate demand, inventory accumulation, and a weak macro - environment. The price of the SC main contract may maintain a high - level wide - range volatile trend, and it is difficult to reproduce the unilateral sharp rise in Q1. The main tone is high - level volatility with a slowly declining center of gravity [6]. Summary by Directory 2026 Q1 Domestic and International Crude Oil Futures Trend Review - In Q1 2026, domestic crude oil futures (SC) had an epic market with initial stable consolidation, an increase in February, an extreme pulse in March, and a high - level decline at the end of the quarter. The main contract started at about 450 yuan per barrel at the beginning of the year and soared to 838 yuan per barrel in mid - March due to the Middle - East geopolitical conflict, with a maximum quarterly amplitude of over 85% [11]. - The core logic of the Q1 market revolved around five main lines: geopolitical supply shock, OPEC+ production cuts, domestic demand pattern, low inventory, and macro and capital factors [12]. Fed Rate - Cut Expectations Fall, Europe and the US Economies Continue to Diverge - Since 2026, the macro - economies of Europe and the US have continued the pattern of a strong US and a weak Europe. The US economy shows strong resilience, with stable consumption and investment. The eurozone is in a weak recovery, constrained by insufficient domestic demand and structural bottlenecks [17]. - The US economy runs smoothly, with features of "steady growth, controllable inflation, and employment resilience". The eurozone's economic growth pressure is greater than that of the US. In Q2, the global macro - economy will enter a stage of narrowing divergence and mild recovery [18][20]. China's Economy Develops Steadily and Well in January - February 2026 - In early 2026, China's macro - economy showed a good start. The production supply recovered steadily, market demand continued to improve, new driving forces grew rapidly, employment and prices were generally stable [36]. - In Q2 2026, China's economy will continue the stable and upward trend, and the growth target of 4.5% - 5.0% for the whole year is more likely to be achieved [38]. OPEC+ Resumes Production Increase Measures, Supply Tightness Expectations Remain - In January - February 2026, the Middle - East crude oil market was characterized by policy - stabilized production, tight supply, and rising geopolitical tensions. OPEC+ continued to control production in Q1, and the production of core Middle - East countries was stable [54]. - In March, the Middle - East geopolitical conflict deteriorated sharply, and the supply pattern changed from "policy - controlled production" to "physical supply interruption". In Q2, OPEC+'s small - scale production increase will be implemented, but it is difficult to offset the supply interruption. Oil prices will remain high and volatile [56]. Global Crude Oil Demand in Q2 is Relatively Resilient - In March 2026, global crude oil demand was about 104.5 million barrels per day, with a year - on - year increase of about 1.2%. The demand growth was led by non - OECD countries, especially Asian emerging markets [75]. - In Q2, global crude oil demand will enter the peak - season growth stage, with a total demand of 105 - 106 million barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 1.5% - 2%, and a year - on - year increase of 1.3% - 1.5% [77]. The US - Iran War Persists, Middle - East Geopolitical Turmoil Intensifies - In March 2026, the Middle - East geopolitical conflict escalated to a high - intensity confrontation. It affected global security, trade, and financial markets, and led to a sharp rise in oil prices [80]. - In late March to early April, the Middle - East situation will remain tense, with high - frequency military attacks, uncertain shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, and a low probability of a short - term cease - fire [84]. China's Crude Oil Imports Increase Significantly in January - February 2026 - In January - February 2026, China's domestic crude oil market showed stable domestic supply, high - growth imports, and high - level processing. The domestic crude oil futures showed a high - level volatile and premium - converging trend [91]. - In Q2, global crude oil consumption will enter the traditional off - season. With global supply being loose and geopolitical premium receding, domestic crude oil prices are likely to return to a "fundamentals - dominated, volatile and slightly downward" trend [94]. International Crude Oil Non - Commercial Net Long Positions Rise Significantly in Q1 2026 - As of March 24, 2026, the average non - commercial net long positions of WTI crude oil futures were 233,620 contracts, a quarter - on - quarter increase of 168,722 contracts, or 259.98%. The average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures were 315,830 contracts, a quarter - on - quarter increase of 216,735 contracts, or 218.71% [101].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The current market focus is on inflation trading rather than stagflation, with expectations of overheating in the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes. Mainstream central banks are still in the latter half of the rate-cutting cycle [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments Oil and Gas Sector - Geopolitical conflicts are expected to push oil prices higher, with Brent crude oil projected to stabilize at $110 per barrel by late April, potentially rising to over $120 per barrel thereafter [1][4]. - Upstream oil and gas companies such as CNOOC, PetroChina, and Zhongman Petroleum are favored investments [1][4]. - Midstream chemical companies like Satellite Chemical and leading coal chemical firms benefiting from kerosene price differentials are recommended [1][5]. Aluminum and Lithium - The aluminum sector is facing a supply-demand gap due to geopolitical threats affecting 4 million tons of overseas capacity, with companies like Tianshan Aluminum and China Hongqiao recommended for high dividend yields [1][5][7]. - The lithium carbonate sector is entering a primary upward trend, driven by resilient demand and supply shocks from overseas resource protectionism. Companies in Sichuan lithium mines and salt lakes are viewed positively [1][8]. Transportation Sector - The oil transportation sector is expected to benefit from a 8% increase in VLCC demand due to inventory replenishment needs [1][10]. - The express delivery industry may start charging fuel surcharges from April to offset rising costs [1][10]. Coal Sector - The coal sector is focusing on overseas asset premiums, with Yanzhou Coal Mining Company as a top pick [1][14]. - The overall strategy for non-ferrous metals is to reduce exposure, while long-term investments in gold and energy-related metals are recommended [1][14]. Additional Important Insights - The macroeconomic environment is currently favorable for financial assets, with a focus on short-term bonds and resource-related equities [2][3]. - The construction industry may see opportunities due to potential high-intensity ground conflicts, with investments recommended in energy price-sensitive companies and those involved in energy security construction [5][6]. - The chemical industry is expected to benefit from rising oil prices, particularly in sulfur, potassium fertilizer, and coal chemical sectors [12][13]. Conclusion - The investment landscape is shaped by geopolitical tensions, inflationary pressures, and sector-specific dynamics. Key sectors to watch include oil and gas, aluminum, lithium, transportation, and coal, with specific companies highlighted for their potential to deliver strong returns in the current environment [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The war since February interrupted the bond market's repair rhythm at the beginning of the year, and the soaring oil price signaled the risk of "imported inflation." There is a possibility that the domestic central bank may use "interest rate cuts" to combat inflation, which is different from overseas central banks' "interest rate hikes to fight inflation" [2][4][9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Impact of War on the Bond Market - The war since February interrupted the bond market's repair rhythm, and the soaring oil price prompted the market to be alert to the risk of "imported inflation." After the war broke out, domestic and foreign bond interest rates rose significantly. European and American 10Y bond interest rates generally increased by more than 40BP, and the probability of the Fed raising interest rates throughout the year was about 25% as priced by interest rate futures. The domestic bond market returned to the bear - market environment before the new year, and there was even a discussion about the possibility of monetary tightening [2][12][15]. Pricing of "Imported Inflation" in the Bond Market - The bond market's focus on "imported inflation" is on inflation itself, with the core of pricing being the slope and persistence. Based on the inflation upward speed in March, the current bond market pricing is relatively sufficient. The monthly - on - monthly increase in the average daily oil price in March was +42.8%, corresponding to a PPI monthly - on - monthly increase of 1.27%, and the year - on - year PPI in March turned positive at 1.07%. If the war lasts longer, there is still room for interest rates to rise. Even if the PPI monthly - on - monthly increase in April is 0, the base effect will cause the year - on - year PPI to accelerate to 1.47%, and the 10Y interest rate may approach the upper limit of 1.95%, about 10BP higher than the current level [4][17]. Economic Situation and Bond Market Sentiment - The "economic good start" since the beginning of the year has added confidence to bond bears. From January to February, exports accelerated, with a year - on - year growth rate of 21.8%, driving the recovery of production and manufacturing investment. The recovery of the economic cycle means that time is on the side of bond bears [5][17]. Risks of "Imported Inflation" - "Inflation trading" may overestimate the global economy's tolerance for oil prices, and the transmission pressure on China's exports cannot be underestimated. Overseas institutions predict that the oil price center may rise above $150 per barrel, which may lead to a recession risk. If the oil price soars to $150 per barrel, it may cause the global GDP to decline by 5% - 8%, and the economic recovery cycle may last 4 - 7 years. If overseas raises interest rates to deal with it, "imported inflation" is likely to turn into "imported recession" [6][18][19]. Different Monetary Policies at Home and Abroad - Overseas developed countries' monetary policies are constrained by the "inflation - employment" framework and are data - dependent. They are likely to raise interest rates to reduce inflation. China, as a developing economy, may cut interest rates when facing the trade - off between imported inflation and recession. In late March, the Chinese central bank over - renewed the MLF to keep the funds loose and stable. On March 25, the central bank over - renewed 500 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF, achieving a net investment of 50 billion yuan. After the new year, the funds' interest rate remained loose, and the DR007 center has been declining since March. The short - and long - term bond interest rate trends of China and the US are divergent [9][22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The inflation trading in the bond market is nearing its end. In the short term, the market logic may shift to changes in the capital side and risk appetite. The current liquidity remains abundant, the capital price stays low, short - term interest rates are relatively stable, and long - term interest rates have opportunities for phased repair. However, it is necessary to be vigilant about the high uncertainty of the geopolitical situation, the intensified intraday fluctuations of oil prices, and the possibility of continuous adjustment in the future, and pay attention to the progress of the Iranian situation [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Prices and Volumes**: T, TF, and TL had flat or slightly rising closing prices, with TS rising 0.02%. All futures contracts saw a decrease in trading volume. For example, T's trading volume decreased by 23,472 to 54,586, TF's by 11,464 to 55,274, TS's by 12,146 to 32,899, and TL's by 15,116 to 69,725 [2] - **Futures Spreads**: Some spreads increased, such as TL2606 - 2609 (up 0.02 to 0.30), T06 - TL06 (up 0.05 to - 3.03), etc., while others decreased, like T2606 - 2609 (down 0.01 to 0.03), TF2606 - 2609 (down 0.02 to 0.20) [2] - **Futures Positions**: T's main contract position increased by 1,172 to 281,927, with long and short positions of the top 20 increasing. TF, TS, and TL's main contract positions decreased, with different changes in long and short positions of the top 20 [2] 3.2 Bond Market - **CTD Bonds**: Some CTD bonds' net prices increased, such as 230004.IB (up 0.0207 to 108.2429), 250025.IB (up 0.0127 to 99.0955), etc., while others decreased, like 250014.IB (down 0.0001 to 100.1536), 240020.IB (down 0.0112 to 100.8844) [2] - **Active Bonds**: Yields of 1 - year and 3 - year active bonds increased by 0.5bp and 0.25bp respectively, while 7 - year and 10 - year yields decreased by 0.2bp and 0.45bp respectively [2] 3.3 Interest Rates - **Short - term Interest Rates**: Some short - term interest rates increased, such as silver - pledged overnight (up 6.41bp to 1.3725), Shibor overnight (up 0.1bp to 1.3190), etc., while others decreased, like silver - pledged 14 - day (down 3.08bp to 1.4818), Shibor 14 - day (down 0.08bp to 1.5112) [2] - **LPR Rates**: 1 - year and 5 - year LPR rates remained unchanged [2] 3.4 Public Market Operations - The issuance scale of reverse repurchase was 785 billion yuan, the maturity scale was 205 billion yuan, and the interest rate was 1.4% for 7 days [2] 3.5 Industry News - The central bank governor met with the CEO of DBS Group, and DBS will become the second RMB clearing bank in Singapore [2] - The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission emphasized promoting the relocation of central enterprises to Xiongan New Area and enhancing its industrial development [3] - The US proposed a 15 - condition peace plan to Iran and is considering a one - month cease - fire for further negotiations [4] 3.6 Market Situation - On Wednesday, the yields of treasury bonds were mixed, with the 10 - year and 30 - year yields changing by - 0.1bp and 0.3bp respectively. Treasury futures fluctuated narrowly, with TS and TL rising 0.02% and 0.01% respectively, and TF and T closing flat. The DR007 weighted average rate rebounded to around 1.44%, and the central bank increased the MLF renewal by 50 billion yuan this month [5] 3.7 Focus - On March 26 - 27, G7 finance ministers will hold a meeting. On March 26 at 20:30, the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week of March 21 will be released [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The inflation trading in the bond market is nearing its end, and the market logic may shift to changes in the capital market and risk appetite in the short term [4]. - Current liquidity remains abundant, with capital prices at a low level. Short - term interest rates are relatively stable, and there are opportunities for phased repair of long - term interest rates [4]. - Geopolitical uncertainties are high, oil price fluctuations have intensified, and there is still a possibility of continuous adjustment. Attention should be paid to the development of the Iranian situation [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Closing Prices and Volumes**: T, TF, TS, and TL are 10 - year, 5 - year, 2 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures respectively. T, TF, TS, and TL closing prices are 108.165 (up 0.02%), 105.915 (unchanged), 102.478 (down 0.02%), and 111.240 (up 0.52%) respectively. Their trading volumes are 78058 (down 37006), 66738 (down 43384), 45045 (down 8661), and 84841 (down 13232) respectively [2]. - **Futures Spreads**: For example, the TL2606 - 2609 spread is 0.29 (up 0.02), and the T06 - TL06 spread is - 3.05 (down 0.48) [2]. - **Futures Positions**: T, TF, TS, and TL main contract positions are 280755 (down 1725), 173725 (down 808), 74893 (up 657), and 130829 (down 1820) respectively [2]. 3.2 Bond Market - **CTD Bond Net Prices**: The net prices of some CTD bonds have changed, such as 230012.IB (6y) at 106.8007 (up 0.0067), and 250025.IB (6y) at 99.0955 (down 0.0122) [2]. - **Active Bond Yields**: The yields of 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year active bonds are 1.2400% (unchanged), 1.3425% (unchanged), 1.5600% (up 1.25bp), 1.6925% (up 1.25bp), and 1.8285% (down 0.80bp) respectively [2]. 3.3 Interest Rates - **Short - term Interest Rates**: The overnight silver - pledged repo rate is 1.3224% (up 1.07bp), and the 7 - day silver - pledged repo rate is 1.4000% (down 2.71bp) [2]. - **LPR Rates**: The 1 - year and 5 - year LPR rates are 3.00% and 3.5% respectively, both unchanged [2]. 3.4 Open Market Operations - The issuance scale of reverse repurchase is 175 billion, the maturity scale is 510 billion, and the interest rate is 1.4% for 7 - day reverse repurchase [2]. 3.5 Industry News - The state has taken temporary regulatory measures on refined oil prices for the first time in 13 years. The domestic refined oil price adjustment window opened at 24:00 on March 23. After regulation, gasoline and diesel prices increased by 1160 yuan and 1115 yuan per ton respectively [2]. - The second meeting of the "upgraded" China - EU export control dialogue mechanism was held, aiming to promote the stability and smoothness of the China - EU industrial chain and supply chain [3]. - The US - Iran negotiation is in a stalemate. Trump said that the US and Iran had a "strong" dialogue and would suspend attacks on its energy facilities for 5 days, but Iran denied it [3].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent market volatility driven by geopolitical tensions, particularly the U.S.-Iran conflict, and explores potential investment opportunities and risks in the current environment [4][5][6]. Group 1: Market Reactions and Geopolitical Tensions - The recent market downturn was triggered by escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran, shifting market expectations from short-term to long-term conflict [5][6]. - The market is currently characterized by extreme volatility, heavily influenced by geopolitical conflict expectations, with any marginal change leading to significant market reactions [8][19]. - The U.S. administration's fluctuating stance and Iran's increasingly hardline responses contribute to a state of uncertainty in the market, making it difficult to predict future developments [9][10]. Group 2: Historical Context and Economic Implications - Historical parallels are drawn to the 2003 Iraq War, which had profound effects on the 2008 financial crisis through rising oil prices and interest rate hikes [10][11][12]. - The article outlines two main pathways through which war impacts the economy: rising interest rates due to increased military costs and surging oil prices leading to inflation [12][14]. - The interplay between high oil prices and economic downturns can create a "double whammy" effect, exacerbating financial instability [16]. Group 3: Investment Phases in Current Market - The article identifies three potential phases for the capital market under the current geopolitical tensions: inflation trading, recession pricing, and a volatile market driven by fluctuating expectations [17][18][19]. - Currently, the market is experiencing the third phase, characterized by oscillating expectations and increased volatility due to mixed signals from geopolitical developments [20]. Group 4: Sector-Specific Insights - The technology sector is under pressure due to rising oil prices and inflation, but certain high-growth areas may present investment opportunities if oil prices stabilize [35][37][40]. - The photovoltaic sector shows resilience amid market downturns, supported by favorable news and a shift in demand dynamics, particularly from Tesla's procurement plans [42][45][47]. - The chemical sector faces challenges due to rising costs from oil price increases and supply chain disruptions, but potential recovery is anticipated if geopolitical tensions ease [58][60][64]. Group 5: Future Outlook and Strategic Considerations - The article suggests that the worst of the market downturn may have already occurred, with indicators pointing to a potential short-term rebound [22][27]. - The state of the market is viewed as a deep adjustment within a bull market rather than a reversal, with future growth driven by earnings and structural changes rather than mere sentiment [68].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the real estate industry [12] Core Insights - The policy goal of stabilizing prices has significantly boosted market expectations, but since April last year, marginal downward pressure has increased, indicating that the strategic significance of improving and stabilizing market expectations is rising [5][9] - The rapid decline phase in industry volume and price may have passed, with structural highlights in core areas and quality properties [5] - Current stock valuations are relatively low, providing room for recovery, emphasizing the importance of quality real estate companies with low inventory, good locations, and strong product capabilities, as well as stable cash flow from leading brokerage firms and commercial real estate [5][9] Market Performance - The Yangtze River Real Estate Index decreased by 4.40% this week, with an excess return of -2.21% relative to the CSI 300, ranking 20th out of 32 industries [6][16] - Year-to-date, the Yangtze River Real Estate Index is down 3.71%, with an excess return of -2.35% relative to the CSI 300, ranking 25th out of 32 industries [6][16] Policy Updates - Shanghai has adjusted the minimum down payment for commercial properties to 30% starting from March 16, 2026 [7][20] - Nanjing has proposed a series of measures to stabilize the real estate market, including differentiated supply strategies and financial incentives for homebuyers [7][20] Sales Data - This week, new home registrations in sample cities showed a year-on-year decline of 10%, while second-hand homes continue to show an upward trend [8][21] - Cumulatively, from February 16 to March 20, 2026, new home registrations in 37 sample cities totaled 607 million square meters, with a year-on-year decrease of 10% [8][21]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The bond market is warming up, with all Treasury bond futures closing higher. The bond market is oscillating between stable growth and easing expectations, and short - term attention should be paid to the policy signals at the end of the month. The financial data has a neutral - to - positive impact on the bond market, but the rising inflation expectations may disturb the short - term sentiment [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's CPI (monthly) has a 1.00% month - on - month increase and a 1.30% year - on - year increase; China's PPI (monthly) has a 0.40% month - on - month increase and a - 0.90% year - on - year decrease [9]. - Monthly economic indicators: The social financing scale is 451.40 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 2.29 trillion yuan and a growth rate of 0.51%; M2 year - on - year is 9.00%, with no change; the manufacturing PMI is 49.00%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.30% and a decline rate of 0.61% [10]. - Daily economic indicators: The US dollar index is 100.18, with a month - on - month increase of 0.61 and a growth rate of 0.61%; the US dollar against the offshore RMB is 6.8999, with a month - on - month increase of 0.024 and a growth rate of 0.36%; SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.43, with no change and a decline rate of 0.29%; DR007 is 1.43, with no change and a decline rate of 0.11%; R007 is 1.55, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.01 and a decline rate of 0.55%; the 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.50, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.01 and a decline rate of 0.47%; the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.09, with no change and a decline rate of 0.47% [11]. II. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market The report provides figures on the closing price trends, price change rates, precipitation funds trends, positions ratio, net positions ratio (top 20), and long - short positions ratio (top 20) of Treasury bond futures main continuous contracts, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [13][19][20]. III. Overview of the Money Market Liquidity The report presents figures on the spread between China Development Bank bonds and Treasury bonds, Treasury bond issuance, Shibor interest rate trends, inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) maturity yield trends, inter - bank pledged repurchase transaction statistics, and local government bond issuance, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [27][28][26]. IV. Spread Overview The report shows figures on the inter - period spread trends of Treasury bond futures varieties and the term spread of cash bonds and cross - variety spreads of futures, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [44][35][37]. V. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures The report provides figures on the implied interest rate and Treasury bond maturity yield of the two - year Treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TS main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TS main contract, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [45][47]. VI. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures The report provides figures on the implied interest rate and Treasury bond maturity yield of the five - year Treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TF main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TF main contract, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [49][62]. VII. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures The report provides figures on the implied yield and Treasury bond maturity yield of the ten - year Treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the T main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the T main contract, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [57][60]. VIII. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures The report provides figures on the implied yield and Treasury bond maturity yield of the thirty - year Treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TL main contract, and the two - year net basis trend of the TL main contract, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [66][69]. Strategy - Unilateral: The repurchase rate is falling, and the price of Treasury bond futures is oscillating [4]. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the decline of the 2606 basis [4]. - Hedging: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - sellers can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4].