1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The bond market is expected to experience a phased recovery, but there is a lack of new catalysts for interest rates to break below the June fluctuation center. Therefore, the recovery space should not be overestimated. It is expected that the bond market will shift to a volatile pattern after the phased recovery in August, and opportunities in long - term varieties can be grasped during the recovery phase [7][79][80]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 2025 July Market Review 1.1 资金价格: 前松后紧 - In July 2025, the funding price showed a pattern of being loose in the first half and tight in the second half. In the first and middle ten - days, the central bank was willing to protect liquidity, and DR007 fluctuated around 1.5%. In the second half, the reverse repurchases over - issued during the tax period matured one after another, and the central bank chose to renew them in a reduced volume, which might intentionally tighten the funding side to cool down the equity market indirectly. DR007 rose rapidly above 1.6% at non - tax and non - end - of - month points. After the open market turned to net investment at the end of the month, the funding price eased to some extent [2][11][16]. 1.2 一级市场：政金债发行规模较高 - In July 2025, the issuance of treasury bonds decreased marginally, while the issuance scale of local bonds and policy - financial bonds increased. In terms of issuance, interest - rate bonds issued a total of 3.2 trillion yuan, a decrease of 150 billion yuan month - on - month. Among them, treasury bonds issued 1.2 trillion yuan, less than each month in the second quarter; local bonds issued 1.2 trillion yuan, the highest monthly level in 2025; policy - financial bonds issued 0.8 trillion yuan, the highest monthly issuance in history. In terms of net financing, the net financing of interest - rate bonds was 1.5 trillion yuan, a decrease of nearly 200 billion yuan month - on - month [11][18]. 1.3 二级市场：10Y国债收益率站上 1.7% - In the first and middle ten - days of July, the bond market was in a volatile pattern, with multiple factors overlapping but no main line. The bond market mainly focused on exploring variety spreads. In the second half of July, the bond market was under pressure as the Ya'an project started, boosting the total demand expectation, and the "inflation trade" became the main suppressing force in the bond market. The redemption pressure of bond funds and wealth management products also increased. It was not until the Politburo meeting at the end of July revealed the signal of "implementing existing policies" and the July PMI data showed that the fundamentals were still under pressure that the bond market had a slight recovery. As of July 31, the yield of 10 - year treasury bonds closed at 1.7%, up 6bp from the end of June [11][3][32]. 基本面展望：压力不容忽视 - The "rush - to - export" effect may be coming to an end, and the year - on - year growth rate of exports may decline in the next 1 - 2 months. Under the promotion of "anti - involution", the growth rates of industrial production and manufacturing investment may slow down. Infrastructure investment is expected to maintain a relatively high growth rate. Consumption data may decline periodically until new growth points emerge after the "trade - in" policy. PPI data may improve, and the year - on - year and month - on - month decline is expected to narrow. After the "inflation trade" sentiment cools down, external and internal demand pressures will return to the spotlight, which is still a favorable environment for the bond market [58][79]. 政策展望:存量政策"落实落细" 3.1 财政政策:政府债供给压力或加大 - In terms of fiscal revenue and expenditure, government - funded expenditures increased significantly in June. In terms of public fiscal revenue, the year - on - year decline in the first half of the year continued, but the revenue structure improved. In terms of public fiscal expenditure, the year - on - year increase in the first half of the year narrowed compared with January - May, and the expenditure rhythm slowed down, but the support for people's livelihood and the technology field did not decrease. In terms of government - funded revenue and expenditure, the revenue growth improved under the drive of a low base, and the expenditure side increased significantly. The Politburo meeting's policy statement on fiscal policy is generally positive for the bond market. In August, the supply pressure of government bonds may increase [62][68][69]. 3.2 货币政策:主要关注公开市场操作 - In June, the total and structure of financial data improved. The Politburo meeting in July continued the tone of "moderate easing" for monetary policy, but removed the expression of "timely reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts" compared with April. It is indicated that the central bank still has the intention to protect liquidity, and the necessity of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in August is not strong. Attention should be paid to the central bank's open - market operation dynamics [73][74]. 债市展望 - The bond market is expected to have a phased recovery, but the lack of new catalysts makes it difficult for interest rates to break below the June fluctuation center. It is expected to turn into a volatile pattern after the phased recovery in August, and long - term varieties can be considered during the recovery [79][80].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests going long on industrial products on dips [5] Core Viewpoints - The "anti-involution" trading in the industrial product sector is heating up, with prices of some commodities rebounding due to policy expectations. The market is awaiting the July Politburo meeting for potential further pro - growth policies. The US is implementing new tariff policies on multiple countries, and there are signs of inflation trading both overseas and domestically, but it faces challenges [2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - In May, domestic investment data weakened, especially in the real - estate sector, which may drag down fiscal revenue and the entire real - estate chain. Exports were under pressure, while consumption showed resilience. The June manufacturing PMI rebounded, but the economic stabilization foundation needs to be strengthened. "Anti - involution" policy expectations in industries like photovoltaic, lithium - battery, and others are rising [2] - On July 10, the A - share market rose in the afternoon, with the Shanghai Composite Index standing firm at 3500 points, hitting a 9 - month high. Real - estate stocks had a涨停潮, and large - financial stocks strengthened [2] - The US will impose tariffs ranging from 25% to 40% on imports from 14 countries starting August 1, and a second batch of tariffs on 8 countries will also take effect on the same day. The US Commerce Secretary plans to talk with China in early August [2][7] - Trump issued an executive order on clean energy and announced a 50% tariff on copper starting August 1, 2025, and investigations in the pharmaceutical and semiconductor sectors will be completed by the end of the month [2] Macro - inflation - Trump signed the "Great Beautiful" tax and spending bill, which may increase US government debt by $3.4 trillion in the next decade, shifting the US from a "tight fiscal expectation + neutral monetary" phase to a "loose - prone" policy phase [3] - Overseas, the core is the currency - led inflation expectation. The US one - year inflation expectation in June dropped from 3.2% to 3.0%, a five - month low. In China, the Central Financial and Economic Commission's meeting has reignited inflation trading, but it faces challenges both overseas and domestically [3] Commodity Sector - Domestically, the black and new - energy metal sectors are most sensitive to the supply - side. Overseas, the energy and non - ferrous sectors benefit significantly from inflation expectations [4] - The black sector is still dragged down by downstream demand expectations. The supply shortage in the non - ferrous sector persists. In the energy sector, the short - term geopolitical premium is over, and the medium - term supply is expected to be relatively loose. OPEC + will increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, and OPEC has lowered its global oil demand forecast for the next four years [4] - The EIA expects the 2025 Brent crude oil price to be $69 per barrel. The ninth OPEC International Seminar was held from July 9 - 10 [4] - There are no short - term weather disturbances in the agricultural product sector, so the price fluctuation range is relatively limited [4] Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to go long on industrial products on dips [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The passing of the "Big Beautiful" tax and spending bill in the US marks a shift from the "tight fiscal expectation + neutral monetary" phase in the first half of the year to a policy phase of "easy to loosen, hard to tighten." In China, the Central Financial and Economic Commission's meeting has reignited market inflation trading [3]. - The inflation trading this round is not smooth. Overseas, the core is the inflation expectation dominated by currency, while in China, it is the supply - side. Further details of production reduction policies are needed to determine the main line of inflation trading [3]. - Attention should be paid to corresponding commodity sectors. Domestically, the black and new - energy metal sectors are most sensitive to the supply - side. Overseas, the energy and non - ferrous sectors benefit significantly from inflation expectations [4]. - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to allocate long positions in industrial products on dips [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - In July, a Politburo meeting in China is awaited. In May, domestic investment data weakened, especially in the real estate sector, which may drag down fiscal revenue and the entire real - estate chain. Exports were also under pressure, while consumption showed resilience. China's June manufacturing PMI rebounded, and the CPI turned positive year - on - year, with the core CPI rising 0.7% year - on - year, driven by industrial consumer goods. The PPI decreased 3.6% year - on - year in June, with the decline widening by 0.3 percentage points [2]. - Since July, policies to address low - price and disorderly competition in industries such as photovoltaics, lithium batteries, automobiles, and steel are expected to heat up, and some commodity prices have recovered. The low base of PPI in the second half of 2024 may boost the year - on - year PPI reading in the second half of this year [2]. - The US will impose tariffs ranging from 25% to 40% on imports from 14 countries including Japan and South Korea starting from August 1. The US and Japan will continue tariff negotiations, and the EU aims to reach a trade agreement with the US by August 1. The US Commerce Secretary plans to talk with China in early August [2]. Macro - inflation Trading - The "Big Beautiful" tax and spending bill in the US may increase the US government's debt by $3.4 trillion in the next decade, leading to a shift in US policies. In China, the Central Financial and Economic Commission's meeting has re - heated market inflation trading [3]. - Overseas, the US one - year inflation expectation in June dropped from 3.2% to 3.0%, a five - month low. However, the Fed's path to restarting easing is not smooth, and although the "Big Beautiful" bill has passed, Treasury bond issuance will still absorb market liquidity [3]. - In China, the core of inflation trading is on the supply - side. The 2025 Central Financial and Economic Commission meeting is different from the 2015 one, and more details of production reduction policies are needed to determine the main line of inflation trading [3]. Commodity Sectors - Domestically, the black and new - energy metal sectors are most sensitive to the supply - side. Overseas, the energy and non - ferrous sectors benefit significantly from inflation expectations [4]. - The black sector is still dragged down by downstream demand expectations. The supply shortage in the non - ferrous sector remains unresolved. In the energy sector, the short - term geopolitical premium has ended, and the medium - term supply is expected to be relatively loose. OPEC+ will increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, higher than expected [4]. - The EIA expects the Brent crude oil price to be $69 per barrel in 2025 (previously $66). The price of agricultural products has limited fluctuation in the short term due to the absence of weather disturbances [4]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to allocate long positions in industrial products on dips [5]. Important News - The Chinese government supports enterprises in stabilizing employment positions, including expanding the scope of special loans for stabilizing and expanding employment, increasing the proportion of unemployment insurance refunds for enterprises, and allowing enterprises in difficulty to apply for deferred payment of social insurance premiums [7]. - In June, China's CPI turned positive year - on - year after four consecutive months of decline, mainly due to the recovery of industrial consumer goods prices. The year - on - year decline of PPI widened in June, but prices in some industries are showing signs of stabilization and recovery [7]. - Trump has determined that tariffs will be implemented on August 1, 2025. The US and Japan will continue tariff negotiations, and the EU aims to reach a trade agreement with the US by August 1. The US plans to talk with China in early August [2][7]. - COMEX copper futures maintained a 9.6% increase, and Trump intends to impose a 50% tariff on copper. The investigation of the pharmaceutical and semiconductor sectors will be completed by the end of the month [7]. - The US one - year inflation expectation in June dropped from 3.2% to 3.0%, a five - month low, and the three - year inflation expectation remained stable at 3% [7]. - US API crude oil inventories increased by more than 700,000 barrels last week. The EIA expects the Brent crude oil price to be $69 per barrel in 2025 and $58 per barrel in 2026 [7]. - Trump has approved the shipment of more defensive weapons to Ukraine and is considering further sanctions against Russia. He is also considering supporting a new bill for severe sanctions against Russia [7][8].

Market Analysis - 5月国内数据好坏参半，投资数据走弱，地产边际压力增加，出口承压，仅消费表现有韧性，6月制造业PMI有所回升但经济企稳基础需夯实 [2] - 6月中国央行连续第8个月增持黄金，外汇储备稳步提升 [2] - 关注7月政治局会议进一步加码稳增长政策的可能 [2] - 特朗普对14个国家发出关税税率威胁，签署行政命令延长“对等关税”暂缓期至8月1日，白宫官员称特定国家关税不叠加征收 [2][7] - 日本和韩国对美方决定表示“遗憾”，均愿通过谈判解决问题，特朗普称将与印度达成协议，欧盟与美国贸易磋商紧张进行，美财长拟与中方会谈 [2][7] - 特朗普发布清洁能源行政命令，授意财政部收紧相关税收制度 [2][7] Macro Inflation - 特朗普签署法案使美国政府债务未来十年或增3.4万亿美元，美国政策转向“易松难紧”阶段，国内中央财经委会议使市场通胀交易升温 [3] - 海外通胀预期受货币主导，美国6月非农数据超预期使美联储重启宽松不顺畅，国内通胀核心在供给侧，需更多行业压产细节政策确定通胀交易主线 [3] Commodity Sector - 7月2日100吨铜抵达香港仓库，7月15日起可用于LME合约交割，标志LME在中国内地周边建仓储网络进展 [4][7] - 国内供给侧敏感的是黑色和新能源金属板块，海外通胀预期受益显著的是能源和有色板块 [4] - 黑色板块受下游需求预期拖累，有色板块供给受限未缓解，能源短期地缘溢价结束，中期供给偏宽松，OPEC+8月增产54.8万桶/日 [4] - 农产品短期无天气扰动，波动空间有限 [4] Strategy - 工业品逢低多配 [5]

Market Analysis - The Politburo meeting will be held in July. In May, domestic data was mixed, with investment data weakening, especially in the real estate sector, which may drag down fiscal revenue and the entire real - estate chain. Exports were also under pressure, and only consumption showed resilience. China's manufacturing PMI rebounded in June, but the foundation for economic stabilization needs to be consolidated. The central bank increased its gold holdings for the 8th consecutive month in June, and foreign exchange reserves increased steadily. Attention should be paid to the possibility of further policies to stabilize growth at the July Politburo meeting. Trump will send tariff letters on July 7 (ET), with new tariffs ranging from 10% - 70%, and the "tariffs effective on August 1" may imply a delay in the negotiation deadline [2]. Macro - inflation - Trump signed the "Great" tax and spending bill, which may increase the US government debt by $3.4 trillion in the next decade, marking a shift from "tight fiscal expectation + neutral monetary policy" to an "easy - to - loosen, hard - to - tighten" policy stage. The domestic Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission meeting reignited market inflation trading. However, overseas, the Fed's path to restarting easing is not smooth, and the Treasury's bond issuance will absorb market liquidity. In China, more detailed industry production - cut policies are needed to determine the main line of inflation trading, otherwise, the de - stocking cycle with weak demand will cause fluctuations [3]. Commodity Sectors - The black and new - energy metal sectors are most sensitive to the domestic supply - side. The energy and non - ferrous sectors benefit significantly from overseas inflation expectations. The black sector is dragged down by downstream demand expectations, the supply shortage in the non - ferrous sector persists, and the energy market has a short - term end of geopolitical premium and a mid - term supply - abundant outlook. OPEC+ will increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, accelerating its strategy to regain market share. Agricultural products have limited short - term fluctuations, and on July 7, spot gold fell by about $10, with an intraday decline of 1.15% [4]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, industrial products should be allocated on dips [5]. Key News - China's foreign exchange reserves reached $3.3174 trillion at the end of June, an increase of $32.2 billion from May, with an increase rate of 0.98%. Trump will send tariff letters and agreements on July 7 (ET), and the so - called "reciprocal tariffs" will take effect on August 1 for countries without agreements. The Kremlin is aware of Trump's remarks about imposing additional tariffs on BRICS countries [2][6].

Core Viewpoint - After the reduction of tariffs, the average effective tariff in the U.S. has decreased from over 20% to 12%, leading to a decrease in inflation and stagflation risks. Consequently, Bank of America (BofA) maintains its interest rate forecasts for 2025 unchanged [1] Interest Rate Predictions - BofA forecasts the 2-year Treasury yield at 3.75%, the 10-year yield at 4.5%, and the 30-year yield at 4.9% by the end of 2025 [1] Interest Rate Curve Strategy - The strategy is adjusted to recommend a "flattening" trade between December 2025 and December 2026, with a target shift from -34 basis points to -70 basis points. This is based on the reduced likelihood of rate cuts in 2025, expected further decline in inflation in 2026, and potential divergence in strategies under new Federal Reserve leadership [2] Duration Positioning - BofA maintains a slightly positive bias towards mid-duration (5-year) bonds, suggesting gradual accumulation of longer-duration positions as the market has previously overestimated recession risks and underestimated hard data support. The 10-year Treasury yield is expected to stabilize in the range of 4.5% to 4.75% [3] Spread Outlook - The short-term outlook for spreads is neutral, while the long-term view is bearish on the 30-year spread due to fiscal deficits and supply pressures in U.S. Treasuries. The short-end (2-5 year) spreads remain neutral to slightly positive due to stable short-term financing conditions [4] Inflation Trading Strategy - The strategy is neutral on inflation trades, closing short positions on 1-year inflation while retaining long positions on 2-year and 3-year inflation, anticipating mid-term inflation to have upward potential, particularly relative to the Eurozone [5] Volatility Strategy - The volatility strategy leans towards short-term bullish and long-term conditional steepening, recommending a 6-month "costless" 2s10s lower bound volatility trade and a long-term "bear steepening" combination based on the 5s30s rate differential to address market repricing risks [5]