随着英镑兑美元汇率迈向两年来最长的连跌纪录，期权交易员正转为看空英镑。 在英国央行行长贝利周一暗示，如果就业市场恶化速度快于预期，可能会进行更大幅度的降息后，交易员们增加了对英国央行降息的 押注。货币市场目前定价年底前将有58个基点的降息，而上周五时约为51个基点。 本周，所有人的目光都将聚焦于一系列关键数据，包括来自英国和美国的通胀报告，以及英国的劳动力数据。 周一，英镑兑美元一度下跌0.3%，至三周低点1.3452美元。若收盘走低，将标志着连续第七个交易日下跌，是自2023年7月以来最长 的一次。 早些时候的数据显示，英国经济在5月份意外萎缩0.1%，凸显出经济增长面临的下行风险。这进一步强化了市场预期：除非6月通胀数 据出现意外表现，否则英国央行将在8月降息。 Monex分析师在一份报告中指出，受上周五公布的疲弱GDP数据影响，英镑可能面临进一步的下跌压力。分析师表示，稳定的通胀可 能会在短期内为英镑提供一些支撑。但从中期来看，财政紧缩、疲软的劳动力市场数据以及月度GDP的收缩，都预示着英镑仍将面临 持续压力。 衡量看涨和看跌期权需求差异的一个月期风险逆转指标目前正反映出自2月份以来最负面的前景，该指标 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Korea will maintain its stance on interest rate cuts to alleviate the downward risks facing economic growth, with expectations of gradual recovery in consumption due to improved economic confidence and the implementation of supplementary budgets [1] Group 1 - The Bank of Korea is adjusting the timing and pace of future interest rate cuts [1]

Core Viewpoint - The latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes indicate a reduction in investor concerns regarding the risks of economic growth downturn and inflation increase [1] Economic Indicators - During the two meetings, policy expectations and U.S. Treasury yields have risen moderately, while credit spreads have narrowed and stock prices have increased [1] - Economic data has generally fallen short of expectations, with the May employment report being a notable exception [1] Market Sentiment - Investors are focusing on the easing of trade tensions and the prospects of fiscal expansion, contributing to a more optimistic outlook [1]

Group 1 - The Bank of England member Greene indicates that the UK faces risks of economic growth downturn while inflation presents upward risks [1] - UK inflation appears to be in a "plateau" phase rather than a "hump" phase [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of England's monetary policy committee member, Green, believes that risks are still two-sided, but they lean towards downside risks for economic growth, while there are also upside risks for inflation [1] Economic Growth Risks - Green emphasizes that the risks to economic growth are skewed downwards, indicating potential challenges for the economy [1] Inflation Risks - There are concerns regarding upward risks to inflation, suggesting that inflationary pressures may persist or increase [1]

Group 1 - The Bank of England lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.25% on May 8, with a split among policymakers regarding the decision [1][2] - Five members supported a 25 basis point cut, while two favored a 50 basis point cut and two preferred to keep rates unchanged [1][2] - The decision comes amid concerns over global trade changes and the impact of U.S. tariffs on the UK economy, leading to a cautious approach in monetary policy [2][3] Group 2 - The Bank of England indicated that economic growth faces downside risks, with the potential for reduced inflation due to increased trade tariffs [2][3] - The central bank's forecast includes a CPI rate of 1.9% for both Q2 2027 and Q2 2028, reflecting ongoing inflation concerns [3] - GDP growth is projected at 1% in 2025, 1.25% in 2026, and 1.5% in 2027, indicating a gradual recovery [4] Group 3 - Following the announcement, traders adjusted their expectations for further rate cuts, now anticipating only two more cuts this year [5] - The British pound strengthened against the U.S. dollar, reaching a high of 1.3314, while UK government bond futures fell by approximately 50 basis points [6]

泰国央行：经济增长面临的下行风险增加。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Moody's indicates that recent earthquakes in Myanmar have impacted Thailand, increasing the downside risks to Thailand's economic growth [1] Group 1 - The earthquakes in Myanmar are affecting the economic stability of neighboring Thailand [1] - There is a heightened concern regarding the potential negative impact on Thailand's economic growth due to these seismic events [1]