Core Viewpoint - The British pound is experiencing its longest losing streak against the US dollar in two years, leading options traders to adopt a bearish outlook on the currency [1][3]. Group 1: Currency Performance - The pound fell 0.3% to a three-week low of 1.3452 USD, marking its seventh consecutive day of decline, the longest since July 2023 [3]. - The decline is attributed to a stronger US dollar and concerns over slowing economic growth in the UK [3]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - UK economic data revealed a surprise contraction of 0.1% in May, highlighting downside risks to growth and reinforcing market expectations for a potential rate cut by the Bank of England [3]. - Current market pricing indicates an expectation of 58 basis points of rate cuts by the end of the year, up from 51 basis points the previous week [1]. Group 3: Central Bank Outlook - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Bank of England in the next meeting is now estimated at 80%, while the Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a wait-and-see approach until at least September [5]. - Upcoming key data releases, including inflation reports from both the UK and the US, as well as UK labor market data, are anticipated to influence market sentiment [5].

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Korea will maintain its stance on interest rate cuts to alleviate the downward risks facing economic growth, with expectations of gradual recovery in consumption due to improved economic confidence and the implementation of supplementary budgets [1] Group 1 - The Bank of Korea is adjusting the timing and pace of future interest rate cuts [1]

Core Viewpoint - The latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes indicate a reduction in investor concerns regarding the risks of economic growth downturn and inflation increase [1] Economic Indicators - During the two meetings, policy expectations and U.S. Treasury yields have risen moderately, while credit spreads have narrowed and stock prices have increased [1] - Economic data has generally fallen short of expectations, with the May employment report being a notable exception [1] Market Sentiment - Investors are focusing on the easing of trade tensions and the prospects of fiscal expansion, contributing to a more optimistic outlook [1]

Group 1 - The Bank of England member Greene indicates that the UK faces risks of economic growth downturn while inflation presents upward risks [1] - UK inflation appears to be in a "plateau" phase rather than a "hump" phase [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of England's monetary policy committee member, Green, believes that risks are still two-sided, but they lean towards downside risks for economic growth, while there are also upside risks for inflation [1] Economic Growth Risks - Green emphasizes that the risks to economic growth are skewed downwards, indicating potential challenges for the economy [1] Inflation Risks - There are concerns regarding upward risks to inflation, suggesting that inflationary pressures may persist or increase [1]

欧洲央行管委Kazimir：忽视通胀的上行风险是错误的。 整个夏天的数据，将显示是否需要更多的微调。 增长仍面临明显的下行风险。 随着欧洲央行6月（再次）降息，利率已达中性区域。 ...

Group 1 - The Bank of England lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.25% on May 8, with a split among policymakers regarding the decision [1][2] - Five members supported a 25 basis point cut, while two favored a 50 basis point cut and two preferred to keep rates unchanged [1][2] - The decision comes amid concerns over global trade changes and the impact of U.S. tariffs on the UK economy, leading to a cautious approach in monetary policy [2][3] Group 2 - The Bank of England indicated that economic growth faces downside risks, with the potential for reduced inflation due to increased trade tariffs [2][3] - The central bank's forecast includes a CPI rate of 1.9% for both Q2 2027 and Q2 2028, reflecting ongoing inflation concerns [3] - GDP growth is projected at 1% in 2025, 1.25% in 2026, and 1.5% in 2027, indicating a gradual recovery [4] Group 3 - Following the announcement, traders adjusted their expectations for further rate cuts, now anticipating only two more cuts this year [5] - The British pound strengthened against the U.S. dollar, reaching a high of 1.3314, while UK government bond futures fell by approximately 50 basis points [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Thailand has indicated that the risks to economic growth are increasing, suggesting a more cautious outlook for the country's economic performance [1] Economic Outlook - The central bank has highlighted that the economic growth outlook is facing downward risks, which may impact various sectors and investment opportunities [1] Implications for Investment - Investors should be aware of the potential challenges in the Thai economy, as the central bank's warning may lead to a reassessment of investment strategies in the region [1]

Core Viewpoint - Moody's indicates that recent earthquakes in Myanmar have impacted Thailand, increasing the downside risks to Thailand's economic growth [1] Group 1 - The earthquakes in Myanmar are affecting the economic stability of neighboring Thailand [1] - There is a heightened concern regarding the potential negative impact on Thailand's economic growth due to these seismic events [1]