National Economic Overview - In 2025, China's GDP reached 1401879 billion yuan, growing by 5.0% year-on-year, successfully meeting the growth target[6] - The contribution of the tertiary industry to GDP growth increased, with a structure adjustment to 6.7:35.6:57.7[13] - National fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 3.8%, marking the first negative growth in five years[14] - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 501202 billion yuan, growing by 3.7% year-on-year[24] Provincial Economic Performance (Henan) - Henan's GDP in 2025 was 66632.79 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.6%, exceeding the initial target of 5.5%[37] - The province's industrial added value grew by 8.4%, surpassing the national average by 2.5 percentage points[39] - Social retail sales in Henan increased by 5.6%, higher than the national average by 1.9 percentage points[44] - Fixed asset investment in Henan rose by 4.0%, significantly exceeding the national decline[39] Sectoral Insights - The contribution of the service sector to GDP growth reached 61.4%, driven by strong performance in accommodation, catering, and IT services[13] - In Henan, the primary industry added value was 5538.08 billion yuan, growing by 3.6%, while the secondary and tertiary industries grew by 5.5% and 6.0% respectively[39] - High-tech manufacturing in Henan saw a significant increase, with growth rates of 29.3% in optical electronics and 26.7% in aerospace[43] Investment and Trade - Nationally, exports grew by 6.1% to 26990 billion yuan, while imports increased by 0.5%[34] - In Henan, the fixed asset investment growth was primarily driven by manufacturing, which saw a 0.6% increase[29] - The real estate sector in Henan faced challenges, with a 17.2% decline in development investment, although sales showed signs of recovery[33]

证券研究报告 宏观 二手房交易初现边际企稳迹象 2026 年 1 月 25 日│中国内地 国内周报 华泰研究 易峘 研究员 evayi@htsc.com +(852) 3658 6000 吴宛忆 研究员 SAC No. S0570524090005 SFC No. BVN199 wuwanyi@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 王洺硕，CFA，PhD 研究员 SAC No. S0570525070003 SFC No. BUP051 wangmingshuo@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 changhuili@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 一周概览 农历春节对齐后，上周居民出行景气度维持高位，二手房成交有所回暖，而 汽车消费同比回落，建筑开工边际承压；国际油价、金价上行，国内农产品 价格回升，但部分原材料价格回撤；上周财政部亦优化实施服务业经营主体 贷款贴息政策、个人消费贷款财政贴息政策；后续重点关注财政发力节奏、 地产政策边际变化及地产市场成交改善的持续性。 高频经济活动跟踪 居民出行景气度边际回升，乘用车零售同比回落，建筑开工和新房 ...

Economic Overview - In November 2025, the national industrial added value increased by 4.8% year-on-year, showing a slight decline of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[11] - The total retail sales of social consumer goods reached 43,898 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.3%, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points from the previous month[15] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 2.6% year-on-year, with real estate development investment down by 15.9%[18] Henan Province Economic Performance - In November 2025, Henan's industrial added value grew by 8.0% year-on-year, outperforming the national average by 3.2 percentage points[25] - The total retail sales of social consumer goods in Henan reached 269.2 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.4%, exceeding the national average by 3.1 percentage points[27] - Fixed asset investment in Henan increased by 4.3% year-on-year, significantly higher than the national average[29] Sector-Specific Insights - In November, the manufacturing sector in Henan saw significant growth, particularly in electronic equipment manufacturing, which grew by 24.9%[26] - The real estate sector in Henan continued to face challenges, with a decline in development investment by 8.5% year-on-year[29] - The retail sector showed strong performance in basic necessities, with food and beverage sales increasing by 19.0% and 13.8% respectively[27] Risks and Challenges - The central economic work conference highlighted the prominent contradiction of strong supply and weak demand, indicating potential risks in economic recovery[24] - Ongoing trade frictions and slower-than-expected policy implementation could further impact economic recovery[34]

Economic Overview - In July 2025, the national industrial added value increased by 5.7% year-on-year, a decline of 1.1 percentage points from the previous month[11] - The total retail sales of social consumer goods reached 38,780 billion yuan, growing by 3.7% year-on-year, with a decrease of 1.1 percentage points compared to June[15] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) from January to July totaled 288,229 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.6%, marking a continuous decline for four months[18] Henan Province Economic Performance - In July 2025, Henan's industrial added value grew by 8.8% year-on-year, exceeding the national average by 3.1 percentage points[25] - The total retail sales of social consumer goods in Henan reached 212.53 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 4.8%, surpassing the national average by 1.1 percentage points[26] - Fixed asset investment in Henan from January to July increased by 5.6% year-on-year, higher than the national average by 4.0 percentage points[29] Regional Economic Contributions - Zhengzhou contributed 7,329.3 billion yuan, accounting for 23.1% of Henan's total economic output, with Luoyang and Nanyang following at 2,925.3 billion yuan (9.2%) and 2,389.83 billion yuan (7.5%) respectively[34] - Six cities in Henan achieved GDP growth rates exceeding the provincial target of 5.7%, with the highest growth in Leihe and Shangqiu at 7.3% and 7.0% respectively[34] Investment and Consumption Trends - The investment in real estate development in Henan decreased by 8.0% year-on-year from January to July, indicating a continued decline in the real estate market[22] - Consumer demand showed signs of recovery with increased spending in food and beverage categories, while "old-for-new" consumption policies led to a decline in certain retail categories[16][26] Risks and Challenges - Potential risks include slower-than-expected policy implementation affecting economic recovery, insufficient domestic demand, and escalating trade tensions[4][38]

Economic Overview - In Q1 2025, China's GDP reached 318,758 billion yuan, growing by 5.4% year-on-year, continuing the recovery trend from Q4 2024[7] - The industrial added value for large-scale enterprises increased by 6.5% year-on-year, while retail sales of consumer goods rose by 4.6%[7] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) grew by 4.2% year-on-year, with imports and exports increasing by 1.3%[7] Henan Province Economic Performance - Henan's GDP in Q1 2025 was 14,945.58 billion yuan, a 5.9% increase compared to the same period in 2024[37] - The industrial added value in Henan grew by 8.8%, with retail sales of consumer goods increasing by 7.0%[37] - Foreign trade in Henan surged by 28.0%, significantly outpacing the national growth rate[47] Sectoral Insights - The primary industry in Henan saw a 2.3% growth, while the secondary industry grew by 6.6%, and the tertiary industry increased by 5.8%[37] - High-tech manufacturing in Henan experienced a notable increase, with sectors like electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing growing by 22.3%[40] - Retail categories such as food and beverages saw significant growth, with retail sales increasing by 17.1% and 18.4% respectively[42] Investment and Trade - National fixed asset investment in Q1 2025 was 103,174 billion yuan, with infrastructure investment growing by 4.4%[25] - The real estate sector in Henan showed signs of recovery, with a decrease in development investment narrowing to 7.5%[46] - Exports of machinery and high-tech products from Henan increased by 64.1% and 132.1% respectively, indicating strong demand in these sectors[47]