证券研究报告 宏观 二手房交易初现边际企稳迹象 2026 年 1 月 25 日│中国内地 国内周报 华泰研究 易峘 研究员 evayi@htsc.com +(852) 3658 6000 吴宛忆 研究员 SAC No. S0570524090005 SFC No. BVN199 wuwanyi@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 王洺硕，CFA，PhD 研究员 SAC No. S0570525070003 SFC No. BUP051 wangmingshuo@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 changhuili@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 一周概览 农历春节对齐后，上周居民出行景气度维持高位，二手房成交有所回暖，而 汽车消费同比回落，建筑开工边际承压；国际油价、金价上行，国内农产品 价格回升，但部分原材料价格回撤；上周财政部亦优化实施服务业经营主体 贷款贴息政策、个人消费贷款财政贴息政策；后续重点关注财政发力节奏、 地产政策边际变化及地产市场成交改善的持续性。 高频经济活动跟踪 居民出行景气度边际回升，乘用车零售同比回落，建筑开工和新房 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The real - estate policy support is increasing, and the active real - estate transactions in first - tier cities are expected to promote the market to "stop falling and stabilize". The policy toolbox may be further opened, aiming for a soft landing of the market [2]. - This week, the demand side shows that new - home sales are growing year - on - year, and automobile consumption is marginally improving. The production side has stable industrial production with the PTA operating rate recovering. The investment side sees the apparent consumption of rebar improving and its price rising. The trade side shows an increase in port throughput and a decline in export container shipping prices. The price side has a drop in agricultural product prices and a stable operation of the commodity futures market [1][3][4][5][6][7]. Summary by Directory 1. Demand: New - home sales increase year - on - year, and automobile consumption marginally improves - Real - estate: This week, the transaction area of commercial housing in 20 cities has improved both in terms of week - on - week and year - on - year. First - tier cities have seen a significant year - on - year increase. The transaction area of second - hand housing in key cities has mostly increased week - on - week. For example, in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen, the second - hand housing transaction areas have increased [3][12]. - Consumption: Automobile consumption has recovered week - on - week, and movie - watching consumption has increased year - on - year. The national migration scale index has decreased week - on - week, and subway ridership has marginally declined [3]. 2. Production: Industrial production runs smoothly, and the PTA operating rate recovers - Mid - and upstream: The operating rate of Tangshan blast furnaces has increased week - on - week. The PTA operating rate has recovered, rising 1.4 pct to 77.2%. The operating rate of polyester filament has slightly increased, while the operating rate of petroleum asphalt plants has decreased [4][51]. - Downstream: The operating rates of automobile all - steel tires and semi - steel tires have increased [4]. 3. Investment: The apparent consumption of rebar recovers, and the rebar price rises - The apparent consumption of rebar has improved, and its price has increased week - on - week. The cement shipping rate has remained flat week - on - week, the cement inventory ratio has increased, and the cement price has remained flat [5][67]. 4. Trade: Port throughput increases, and export container shipping prices decline - Export: Port container throughput has recovered, and the CCFI composite index has decreased week - on - week. The freight rates of European routes have decreased, while those of the US West and US East routes have increased. The BDI index has increased week - on - week [6][78]. - Import: The CICFI composite index has increased 0.4% week - on - week [6][79]. 5. Prices: Agricultural product prices decline, and the commodity futures market operates stably - CPI: The 200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices has decreased 0.3% week - on - week. Egg prices have risen, while fruit, vegetable, and pork prices have declined [7][90]. - PPI: The Nanhua industrial product price index has increased 1.1% week - on - week. Brent crude oil spot price has increased 1.4%, COMEX gold futures price has increased 0.9%, and LME copper spot price has increased 0.7%. In the commodity futures market, glass, coke, and coking coal have seen relatively large increases, while caustic soda and lithium carbonate have seen declines [7][95][104]. 6. Interest - rate bond tracking: The cumulative issuance progress of replacement bonds this year has reached 99.3% - Next week (9/22 - 9/26), the planned issuance of interest - rate bonds is 447.1 billion yuan, with a net financing of - 138.9 billion yuan. As of September 19, the cumulative issuance progress of replacement bonds this year is 99.3%, the cumulative issuance progress of new general bonds is 82.0%, and the cumulative issuance progress of new special bonds is 79.8% [8][110][115]. 7. Policy Weekly Observation: The central bank adjusts the open - market 14 - day reverse repurchase operation - On September 15, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange stated that relevant foreign exchange management measures need to be optimized and adjusted to adapt to the new situation of the real - estate market. - On September 16, nine departments including the Ministry of Commerce issued measures to expand service consumption. - On September 19, the central bank adjusted the open - market 14 - day reverse repurchase operation to a fixed - quantity, interest - rate tender, and multi - price winning bid [121].

Group 1 - The market's trading results suggest that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are a dominant factor influencing current trends [1] - The bond market has reached a significant level of 1.8%, indicating some acceptance from the allocation side, with expectations for a reduction in MLF rates [1] - The overall macro narrative includes a transition between old and new growth drivers, easing deflation expectations, and a shift in trading models, with a focus on defensive strategies to capture short-term opportunities [1] Group 2 - Commodity markets are benefiting from a weaker US dollar, with domestic pricing for commodities performing well [1] - The Hang Seng Technology Index is experiencing strong performance due to expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and subsequent catch-up movements [1] - The A-share market's strength in the metals sector is linked to the weakness of the US dollar, while AI and semiconductor sectors are seeing momentum driven by previous trends [1] Group 3 - Real estate market dynamics are influenced by policy adjustments in Shanghai and subsequent catch-up movements [1] - Daily transaction volumes are expected to exceed 3 trillion [1] - Underlying logic related to US-China relations, low interest rates, and market ecosystem optimization remains unchanged, although market sentiment is anticipated to fluctuate significantly in the coming week [1]