Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The oil price is expected to be volatile and strong after a correction this week, and attention should be paid to the implementation of the extension of Sino - US reciprocal tariffs before August 12 [1]. - For precious metals, maintain the idea of buying on dips in the volatile trend [2]. - For copper, hold short positions [3]. - Aluminum is expected to continue to be under pressure and fluctuate in the short term [4]. - For casting aluminum alloy, consider a long - AD and short - AL strategy if the futures spread widens [5]. - For alumina, short on rebounds based on the recent high of 3500 yuan [6]. - For zinc, continue the idea of short on rebounds [7]. - For lead, it is advisable to hold long positions with the support of 16,600 yuan/ton [8]. - For nickel, look for opportunities to short [9]. - For tin, hold short positions at high levels [10]. - For lithium carbonate, try light - position long positions in the short term [11]. - For polysilicon, it is likely to have a wide - range shock in the range of 46,000 - 47,000 yuan/ton, and pay attention to position control [12]. - For industrial silicon, it is expected to be volatile and weak in the short term [13]. - For rebar and hot - rolled coil, pay attention to the off - season demand承接 ability [14]. - For iron ore, it is expected to fluctuate mainly [15]. - For coke, the downside space is relatively small in the short term [16]. - For coking coal, the downside space is relatively small in the short term [17]. - For ferrosilicon manganese, pay attention to the support at the 5800 level [18]. - For ferrosilicon, it follows the trend of ferrosilicon manganese, and the power cost may decline again [19]. - For the container shipping index (European line), it is recommended to hold existing short positions [20]. - For fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil, the crack spreads are weak [21]. - For asphalt, the unilateral trend follows the oil price with limited fluctuation space [22]. - For liquefied petroleum gas, it runs at a low level overall [23]. - For urea, the short - term market is weak and volatile [24]. - For methanol, pay attention to the impact of macro policies [25]. - For pure benzene, conduct monthly spread band operations [26]. - For styrene, the price continues to run weakly [27]. - For polypropylene, plastic, and propylene, the prices are prone to fall and difficult to rise [28]. - For PVC and caustic soda, PVC is expected to be volatile and weak, and caustic soda is under pressure at high levels [29]. - For PX and PTA, the mid - term processing margin has a repair drive, waiting for downstream demand recovery [30]. - For ethylene glycol, the price continues to decline [31]. - For short - fiber and bottle - chip, consider long positions for short - fiber in the medium term, and the processing margin of bottle - chip is restricted [32]. - For glass, it runs weakly [33]. - For rubber, adopt a wait - and - see strategy [34]. - For soda ash, it is expected to be volatile and weak in the short term [35]. - For soybeans and soybean meal, the market is initially treated as a shock [36]. - For soybean oil and palm oil, maintain a long - on - dips strategy [37]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, adopt a wait - and - see strategy in the short term [38]. - For domestic soybeans, the market is initially treated as a shock [39]. - For corn, the Dalian corn futures may continue to oscillate weakly at the bottom [40]. - For live pigs, it is recommended that the industry conduct hedging on rallies [41]. - For eggs, the futures contracts after 2026 are expected to be stronger than those in the second half of 2025 [42]. - For cotton, adopt a wait - and - see or intraday trading strategy [43]. - For sugar, the sugar price is expected to be volatile in the short term, and adopt a wait - and - see strategy [44]. - For apples, pay attention to the price change of early - maturing apples and the new - season yield estimate [45]. - For timber, maintain a long - biased strategy [46]. - For pulp, the price may return to low - level oscillations, and adopt a wait - and - see strategy [47]. - For stock index futures, maintain an increased allocation of the technology - growth sector and pay attention to opportunities in the low - level consumer sector [48]. - For treasury bond futures, it may enter a repair phase, and the probability of a steeper yield curve increases [49]. Summaries by Related Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Last week, the crude oil market rose first and then fell. Brent's October contract still rose 2.84%, and SC09 rose 2.92%. OPEC + decided to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September [1]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: FU and LU crack spreads continued to decline, and the market fundamentals were weak [21]. - **Asphalt**: In August, the domestic production volume decreased compared with July. The demand recovery was delayed, and the inventory removal was weak [22]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The Middle East CP dropped significantly, the supply was loose, and the price was at a low level [23]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: After the US non - farm payrolls data was lower than expected, the Fed is expected to cut interest rates in September, and precious metals rebounded [2]. - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: The London copper closed down. Pay attention to the resistance of the MA60 moving average. Hold short positions [3]. - **Aluminum**: The Shanghai aluminum fluctuated narrowly. The inventory increased, and it was under pressure in the short term [4]. - **Zinc**: The 08 contract entered the delivery month. The supply was expected to increase, and it was recommended to short on rebounds [7]. - **Lead**: The price dropped, and it was advisable to hold long positions with support [8]. - **Nickel**: The Shanghai nickel fluctuated, and it was recommended to short [9]. - **Tin**: The London tin rose. Hold short positions at high levels [10]. - **Ferroalloys** - **Manganese Silicon**: The supply and demand were relatively balanced, and pay attention to the support at 5800 [18]. - **Silicon Iron**: It followed the trend of manganese silicon, and the power cost might decline [19]. Chemicals - **Urea**: The agricultural demand entered the off - season, and the short - term market was weak and volatile [24]. - **Methanol**: The port inventory increased seasonally, and the supply was sufficient. Pay attention to macro policies [25]. - **Pure Benzene**: The price was weak, and it was recommended to conduct monthly spread band operations [26]. - **Styrene**: The supply pressure was relatively large, and the price continued to be weak [27]. - **Polypropylene & Plastic & Propylene**: The prices were prone to fall and difficult to rise [28]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC was expected to be volatile and weak, and caustic soda was under pressure at high levels [29]. - **PX & PTA**: The mid - term processing margin had a repair drive, waiting for downstream demand recovery [30]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price continued to decline [31]. - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: Consider long positions for short - fiber in the medium term, and the processing margin of bottle - chip was restricted [32]. Building Materials - **Glass**: It ran weakly, and the inventory increased [33]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It was expected to be volatile and weak in the short term [13]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: The US soybeans were under pressure, and the market was initially treated as a shock [36]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: Maintain a long - on - dips strategy [37]. - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: Adopt a wait - and - see strategy in the short term [38]. - **Domestic Soybeans**: The price was in a shock, and pay attention to the weather [39]. - **Corn**: The Dalian corn futures may continue to oscillate weakly at the bottom [40]. - **Live Pigs**: The futures price may have peaked, and it is recommended to hedge on rallies [41]. - **Eggs**: The futures contracts after 2026 are expected to be stronger than those in the second half of 2025 [42]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton and Zhengzhou cotton fell. Adopt a wait - and - see or intraday trading strategy [43]. - **Sugar**: The sugar price was expected to be volatile in the short term, and adopt a wait - and - see strategy [44]. - **Apples**: Pay attention to the price change of early - maturing apples and the new - season yield estimate [45]. - **Timber**: The demand improved, the inventory was low, and maintain a long - biased strategy [46]. - **Pulp**: The price may return to low - level oscillations, and adopt a wait - and - see strategy [47]. Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: The A - share market was volatile. Maintain an increased allocation of the technology - growth sector and pay attention to opportunities in the low - level consumer sector [48]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: It may enter a repair phase, and the probability of a steeper yield curve increases [49]. Others - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The SCFI European route decreased slightly. The主力 EC2510 contract was deeply discounted, and it is recommended to hold short positions [20].

美联储主席鲍威尔：利率的变化将取决于经济的走向。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicates that U.S. inflation is expected to rise due to the impact of tariffs [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Economic Impact - The Federal Reserve's responsibility is to control inflation [1] - Changes in interest rates will depend on the direction of the economy [1]

美联储主席鲍威尔：在调整政策之前，目前可以等待更多关于经济可能走向的信息。 ...