文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 年金融危机之后，最大熊市。 而人民币利率2022年之后整体下降,所 以人民币债券，反而出现了一轮牛市。 (2) 利率对股票市场也会产生影响，其 中对红利等价值风格、以及小盘股，影 响更明显。 在利率下降周期: ·小盘股对资金更敏感,利率下降,市场 流动资金充裕，会带动小盘股上涨，例 如2014-2015年的 A股小盘股牛市,当时 就是伴随着人民币利率大幅降低。 ·利率下降,对红利等股息率较高的资产 也有利。 因为像保险、养老金等机构投资者， 篇 要定期现金流，支付给客户。 债券的现金流是债券利息;股票的现金 流就是股息分红。 如果长期债券、存款的利息降低，那保 险等机构，就需要将一部分长期债券的 资金,挪到股息率较高的红利类资产 上，这样才能保证每年现金流稳定。 2022年之后,人民币利率降低,红利指 数就 受 到 了 保 险 等 机 构 的 加 仓 , 2022-2024年红利等策略比较强势。 反过来,美股2022年之后利率上升,美 元长期债券利息比较高，美股投资者对 美股红利指数基金的需求没有太旺盛, 这几年美股红利类品种,反而跑输了美 股大盘。 风险提示 本文仅为 ...

UNFX知识分享 影响白银市场最大的因素通常是全球经济状况和货币政策，尤其是美元走势和利率变 化。以下是具体原因： 1. 美元走势 白银以美元计价，美元与白银价格通常呈负相关。 美元走强：白银价格往往下跌，因为持有白银的成本增加。 美元走弱：白银价格通常上涨，因为持有白银的成本降低。 美元是全球储备货币，其走势受美国经济数据、货币政策（如美联储利率决策）和全球经济形势影响。 2. 货币政策（尤其是美联储政策） 经济强劲时，工业需求（如电子、光伏）增加，推动白银价格上涨。 经济衰退时，工业需求减少，白银价格可能下跌。 利率变化： 加息：利率上升时，持有白银的机会成本增加，投资者可能转向收益更高的资产，导致白银价格下跌。 降息：利率下降时，白银的吸引力增强，价格可能上涨。 量化宽松（QE）：当美联储实施宽松政策（如印钞、购债）时，市场流动性增加，通胀预期上升，白 银作为抗通胀资产，价格往往上涨。 3. 全球经济状况 经济增长： 5. 供需关系 供应：矿山产量、回收量、生产成本等影响白银供应。 需求：工业需求（占白银总需求的50%以上）、投资需求和珠宝需求的变化也会显著影响价格。 供需失衡（如供应短缺或需求激增）会 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company bond ETF (511030) is influenced by macroeconomic policies, interest rate changes, and credit risks in the bond market [1] Group 1: Market and Economic Indicators - The U.S. Treasury auctioned a four-month Treasury bill with a winning yield of 3.815% and a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.06 [2] - The Bank of Canada lowered its benchmark overnight rate by 25 basis points to 2.5% due to economic weakness and reduced inflation risks, with no forward guidance provided [2] - The Federal Reserve also cut rates by 25 basis points, bringing the federal funds rate target range to 4.00%-4.25%, amid rising inflation and employment risks [2][3] Group 2: ETF Performance Metrics - As of September 17, 2025, the company bond ETF (511030) increased by 0.03%, marking three consecutive days of gains, with a latest price of 106.15 yuan [3] - The ETF's scale reached 22.851 billion yuan, with recent inflows and outflows remaining balanced, totaling 97.7382 million yuan over the last ten trading days [4] - The ETF has achieved a net value increase of 13.47% over the past five years, with a maximum monthly return of 1.22% since inception [4] Group 3: Risk and Return Analysis - The maximum drawdown for the ETF in the last six months was 0.19%, with a relative benchmark drawdown of 0.08% [5] - The ETF's management fee is 0.15%, and the custody fee is 0.05% [6] Group 4: Tracking Accuracy - The ETF's tracking error over the past month was 0.012%, closely following the China Bond - Medium to High Grade Corporate Bond Spread Factor Index [7]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that the Fed does not consider the costs of interest rate changes imposed by the government [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve remains focused on its monetary policy objectives without being influenced by external cost considerations [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese insurance industry is expected to see a net profit growth rate of +7.4% year-on-year in 1H25, with significant divergence in profit growth among companies compared to Q1, influenced by interest rate changes and the timing of profit recognition for life insurance contracts [1] Group 1: Life Insurance Sector - The new business value (NBV) for Chinese life insurance is projected to show strong growth, with expected year-on-year increases of +48% for Xinhua, +45% for Sunshine, +40% for PICC, +38% for Ping An, +33% for Taiping, and +20% for Taikang in 1H25 [1] - The life insurance sector is experiencing high growth in bancassurance channels, while individual insurance faces pressure; attention is recommended on the recruitment of new agents and the transformation of participating insurance [1] Group 2: Property and Casualty Insurance Sector - The property and casualty (P&C) insurance sector is expected to perform well in underwriting, with improved comprehensive cost ratios: 94.8% for China P&C (down 1.4 percentage points year-on-year), 96.9% for Ping An P&C (down 0.9 percentage points), and 96.8% for Taiping P&C (down 0.3 percentage points) [2] - The overall profitability of P&C insurance companies is anticipated to be better than that of life insurance companies, with upward adjustments made to profit forecasts for the year [1][2] Group 3: Profit Growth Divergence - The expected year-on-year net profit growth rates for Chinese insurance companies in 1H25 are +33% for China P&C, +19% for PICC, +18% for Xinhua, +2% for Taiping (operating profit +4%), 0% for Sunshine, -4% for Taikang, and -7% for Ping An (operating profit +3%) [3] - The divergence in profit growth rates among companies has narrowed compared to Q1, with the lagging life insurance sector expected to show improved performance in the second half of the year due to lower profit baselines [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore I2509 contract is expected to fluctuate with a bullish bias. Consider trading with a bullish view on the I2509 contract, paying attention to trading rhythm and risk control. The third - batch consumer goods trade - in funds will be issued in July, stimulating consumption. Although the iron ore shipment, arrival, and port inventory have increased, the hot metal production remains at a high level, and the strong rebound of coking coal and coke drives the black - series commodities to be bullish [9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Highlights 3.1.1 Market Review - As of June 27, the closing price of the iron ore main contract was 716.5 (+13.5) yuan/ton, and the price of Macfayden ore at Qingdao Port was 754 (+1) yuan/dry ton. The total shipment volume from Australia and Brazil increased by 154 tons this period. From June 16 - 22, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume was 3.5067 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 154,000 tons. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 3.0609 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 218,800 tons. The arrival volume at 47 ports increased by 255,400 tons. From June 16 - 22, 2025, the total arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2.7729 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 255,400 tons; the total arrival volume at 45 ports was 2.5627 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 178,200 tons; the total arrival volume at six northern ports was 1.1535 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 65,500 tons. The hot metal production increased by 110 tons. The daily average hot metal production was 2.4229 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 110 tons and a year - on - year increase of 2,850 tons. The port inventory increased by 102,830 tons. As of June 27, 2025, the imported iron ore inventory at 47 ports was 14.48023 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 46,670 tons. The inventory of 247 steel mills was 8.84747 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 88,770 tons. The profitability rate of steel mills was 59.31%, unchanged from last week and 16.45 percentage points higher than last year [7][6]. 3.1.2 Market Outlook - Macro aspect: Overseas, Iran accepts Qatar's mediation and the US - proposed cease - fire plan with Israel, and the US will hold talks with Iran on a potential nuclear deal next week. Fed Chairman Powell said that due to the impact of tariffs, US inflation is expected to rise, and interest rate changes will depend on the economic trend. Domestically, the central bank conducted 300 billion yuan of Medium - term Lending Facility (MLF) operations on June 25, achieving an excess roll - over compared with the 182 billion yuan maturity amount in the same month, with a net injection of 118 billion yuan, which is the central bank's fourth consecutive month of increased operations. The National Development and Reform Commission said that the third - batch consumer goods trade - in funds will be issued in July. Supply - demand aspect: The shipment and arrival volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil increased, and the domestic port inventory increased slightly. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate and hot metal production of steel mills increased, and the support for iron ore demand still exists. Technical aspect: The iron ore I2509 contract fluctuated with a bullish bias, the daily K - line broke through the pressure of multiple moving averages upwards; the MACD indicator showed that DIFF and DEA were rising upwards, and the red bars were expanding [9]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - The futures price fluctuated with a bullish bias this week. The I2509 contract was weaker than the I2601 contract. On the 27th, the price difference was 27 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 2 yuan/ton. The iron ore warehouse receipts remained unchanged this week, and the net short position of the top 20 holders increased. On June 27, the warehouse receipt volume of iron ore at the Dalian Commodity Exchange was 3,000 lots, a week - on - week increase of 0 lots. The net short position of the top 20 holders of the ore futures contract was 49,583 lots, an increase of 10,694 lots compared with last week. The spot price increased this week. On June 27, the price of 61% Australian Macfayden ore at Qingdao Port was 754 yuan/dry ton, a week - on - week increase of 1 yuan/dry ton. This week, the spot price of iron ore was weaker than the futures price. On the 27th, the basis was 38 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 12 yuan/ton [15][21][27]. 3.3 Industry Situation - The total arrival volume at 47 ports in China increased. From June 16 - 22, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume was 3.5067 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 154,000 tons. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 3.0609 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 218,800 tons. The total arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2.7729 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 255,400 tons; the total arrival volume at 45 ports was 2.5627 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 178,200 tons; the total arrival volume at six northern ports was 1.1535 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 65,500 tons. The iron ore port inventory increased. This week, the total imported iron ore inventory at 47 ports was 14.48023 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 46,670 tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 338,940 tons, an increase of 11,480 tons. In terms of components, the Australian ore inventory was 6.18808 billion tons, an increase of 87,640 tons; the Brazilian ore inventory was 5.2978 billion tons, a decrease of 20,990 tons; the trading ore inventory was 9.33115 billion tons, a decrease of 70,300 tons. The imported iron ore inventory of steel mills decreased. The total imported iron ore inventory of steel mills was 8.84747 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 88,770 tons; the daily consumption of imported ore of the current sample steel mills was 301,250 tons, a week - on - week increase of 250 tons; the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 29.37 days, a week - on - week decrease of 0.32 days. The available days of iron ore inventory of the sample steel mills remained unchanged. As of June 26, the average available days of imported iron ore inventory of domestic large and medium - sized steel mills was 19 days, a week - on - week increase of 0 days. On June 26, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 1,553, a week - on - week decrease of 112. The iron ore import volume decreased, and the mine capacity utilization rate increased. In May, China imported 98.131 million tons of iron ore and its concentrates, a decrease of 5.007 million tons from the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 4.9%; from January to May, the cumulative import was 486.409 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.2%. As of June 27, the capacity utilization rate of 266 mines was 65.49%, a week - on - week increase of 4.17%; the daily average fine powder output was 413,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 263,000 tons; the inventory was 53,260 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5,170 tons. The domestic iron ore fine powder output increased. In May 2025, China's iron ore raw ore output was 85.787 million tons; from January to May, the cumulative output of domestic iron ore raw ore was 414.32 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.1%. In May, the iron fine powder output of 433 iron mine enterprises was 24.066 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.051 million tons, an increase of 4.6%; from January to May, the cumulative output was 114.449 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 10.645 million tons, a decrease of 8.5% [31][34][37][40][43]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - In terms of demand, from January to May, the crude steel output decreased year - on - year. In May 2025, China's crude steel output was 86.55 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.9%; from January to May, China's crude steel output was 431.63 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%. In May, China exported 10.578 million tons of steel, an increase of 116,000 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 1.1%; from January to May, the cumulative steel export was 48.469 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.9%. In May, China imported 481,000 tons of steel, a decrease of 41,000 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 7.9%; from January to May, the cumulative steel import was 2.553 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.1%. The blast furnace operating rate of steel mills remained unchanged, and the hot metal production increased. On June 27, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.82%, unchanged from last week and 0.71 percentage points higher than last year; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.83%, a week - on - week increase of 0.04 percentage points and 1.70 percentage points higher than last year. The daily average hot metal production of 247 steel mills was 2.4229 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 110 tons and a year - on - year increase of 2,850 tons [47][50]. 3.5 Options Market - The iron ore port inventory increases, the hot metal production remains at a high level, and the strong rebound of coking coal and coke supports the ore price. However, the medium - to - long - term supply pressure may further increase, which may drag down the iron ore futures price. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options [53].

Core Viewpoint - The changes in interest rates will depend on the trajectory of the economy [1] Group 1 - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell emphasized that the direction of interest rate changes is contingent upon economic developments [1]

Core Economic Data - The U.S. Commerce Department will release the May Core PCE Price Index year-on-year at 20:30 on Friday, with a previous value of 2.5% and an expected value of 2.6%, indicating a small expected decline [1] - The Core PCE year-on-year data is a crucial reference for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy adjustments, and a significant drop in PCE data could lead to a resumption of interest rate cuts [1] - The May Core CPI year-on-year has been published at 2.8%, remaining unchanged from the previous value, indicating stability over three consecutive months [1] Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will deliver semiannual monetary policy reports to Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday, focusing on future interest rate changes, inflation trends, and the labor market [4] - If Powell's statements align with previous remarks, the impact on the dollar index may be minimal; however, unexpected comments could lead to significant volatility [4] - Powell's previous comments indicated that the Fed is patient regarding interest rate cuts, suggesting that such actions are not imminent [4] Oil Market Influence - The fluctuations in crude oil prices are expected to correlate with changes in PCE data; in May, U.S. crude oil prices increased by 4.43%, with a price range between $55 and $64, indicating limited volatility [1] ECB and Eurozone Outlook - ECB President Christine Lagarde will speak in Munich on Friday, likely not addressing interest rate paths or inflation due to the event's limited economic relevance [5] - Lagarde's previous remarks indicated a favorable position for the euro, and her upcoming speeches are expected to maintain an optimistic tone, potentially benefiting the euro [5]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is satisfied with the current inflation levels and agrees with President Lagarde that the interest rate cut cycle is nearing its end [1] Group 1 - ECB Governing Council member Müller expresses contentment with current inflation levels [1] - Müller aligns with Lagarde's perspective on the nearing conclusion of the interest rate cut cycle [1]