2025年12月美国非农就业报告让市场人士对美联储本月末降息的预期彻底落空。虽然2025年12月新增就 业仅5万人、且前两个月数据大幅下修，但2025年12月失业率意外降至4.4%，为美联储按兵不动提供了 充足的理由。市场普遍认为，美国就业增长的节奏明显放缓，但也显示出"趋于稳定"的信号，这将让美 联储不急于进一步降息。 招聘偏慢、裁员偏慢 北京时间上周五晚间，美国劳工统计局披露2025年12月的非农就业报告。报告显示，2025年12月非农就 业人数增加5万人，预期7万人；失业率4.4%，预期4.5%。总的来说，2025年美国非农就业人数合计为 58.4万人，较2024年的200万人显著下降。 受到去年底美国政府创纪录停摆的影响，非农报告直到目前才恢复正常发布状态。最新报告也调整了前 两个月的就业人数，其中2025年11月从增加6.4万人下修至5.6万人，2025年10月从减少10.5万人下修至 减少17.3万人，两个月合计下修7.6万人。 行业数据显示，餐饮业在2025年12月报告中领涨就业行情，新增岗位2.7万个，医疗保健增加2.1万个岗 位，社会援助增加17000个。零售业报告减少2.5万个岗位。政府部 ...

记者丨 吴斌 编辑丨李莹亮 美东时间周五，美股三大指数集体收涨，在英特尔及其他芯片制造商股价上涨的带动下，标普500指数收于历史新高。 在2026年首个完整交易周，美股三大股指显著上涨，道指一周累计上涨2.32%，标普500指数上涨1.57%，纳指上涨1.88%。 美股存储概念股普涨，闪迪涨12.8%，前一个交易日跌超5%，美光科技涨5.5%，希捷涨6.87%，西部数据涨6.8%；野村证券的一份研报指出， 企业级SSD使用的大容量3D NAND需求持续火爆，闪迪本季度相关产品价格环比或暴涨逾100%。 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | | 闪迪 | 377.410 | 12.81% | | SNDK.O | | | | 英伟达(NVIDIA) | 184.860 | -0.10% | | NVDA.O | | | | 英特尔(INTEL) | 45.550 | 10.80% | | INTC.O | | | | 阿里巴巴 | 150.960 | -2.27% | | BABA.N | | | | 阿尔法科技 | 30.610 | 46.96% | | ATGL.O | ...

Group 1 - Major Wall Street banks have released their outlooks for the S&P 500 index for the end of 2026, with a general consensus that the index will continue to rise due to the ongoing AI investment wave, a shift to loose monetary policy, and expanding profit growth [1][2][8] - HSBC sets a target of 7500 points for the S&P 500 by the end of 2026, expecting a 12% growth in earnings per share for index constituents, driven by macroeconomic stability and the AI investment boom [2][3] - Societe Generale predicts the S&P 500 could reach 7300 points in 2026, with a potential range reflecting significant market volatility due to monetary policy uncertainty [4] Group 2 - Barclays raises its target for the S&P 500 to 7400 points, citing strong performance from large tech stocks and improving monetary and fiscal conditions, while warning of pressure on non-tech sectors due to rising inflation and unemployment [5][6] - UBS forecasts a target of 7500 points for the S&P 500, driven by strong corporate earnings growth of 14.4% in 2026, despite concerns over valuation risks related to AI stocks [8] - Morgan Stanley anticipates the S&P 500 will rise to 7800 points, supported by Fed rate cuts and efficiency gains from AI technology [11] Group 3 - Deutsche Bank presents the most optimistic outlook, setting a target of 8000 points for the S&P 500, driven by expected earnings growth of 14% and a broader market rally beyond the largest tech companies [12] - Morgan Stanley's strategy team emphasizes that the recent market sell-off is nearing its end, viewing it as an opportunity to position for a bullish 2026 [11] - JPMorgan highlights the K-shaped economic recovery, indicating that while large enterprises benefit from AI, the disparity in consumer confidence and spending may lead to market volatility [10]