Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the mixed performance of U.S. stock indices, with the Dow Jones reaching a historical closing high despite pressures from rising bond yields and disappointing earnings from Home Depot [1] - Home Depot reported Q2 revenue and earnings per share for fiscal year 2025 below expectations but maintained its full-year guidance, resulting in a stock price increase of over 3% [1] - The Dow Jones increased by 0.02%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell by 0.59% and 1.46%, respectively, indicating a divergence in market performance [1] Group 2 - European stock indices collectively rose, driven by optimistic investor sentiment regarding a potential peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine, with significant gains in retail, non-essential consumer goods, beverages, and automotive sectors [2] - The FTSE 100 index in the UK reached a historical closing high, reflecting strong performance in the European market [2] Group 3 - International oil prices declined as investors anticipated a de-escalation of the Eastern European geopolitical conflict, leading to expectations of increased supply from Russia [3] - The price of light crude oil futures for September delivery closed at $62.35 per barrel, down 1.69%, while Brent crude oil futures for October delivery closed at $65.79 per barrel, down 1.22% [3] Group 4 - International gold prices fell to a two-week low as investors awaited comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, with expectations of a cautious stance on interest rate cuts [4] - The price of December gold futures closed at $3358.7 per ounce, reflecting a decline of 0.57% [4]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming earnings season for U.S. stocks is expected to face significant challenges due to rising tariff costs, leading to a substantial slowdown in profit growth for S&P 500 companies [1][2]. Group 1: Earnings Growth Expectations - S&P 500's earnings per share (EPS) growth is projected to decline sharply from 12% in Q1 to only 4% in Q2, primarily due to increased pressure on profit margins [1][2]. - The effective tariff rate in the U.S. has risen from 3% at the beginning of the year to 13%, with expectations of further increases to 17% [1]. - Analysts predict that the EPS growth for the S&P 500 in Q2 will be the smallest increase in nearly two years, with a forecasted growth of only 2.6% from April to June [1][2]. Group 2: Sector Performance - Cyclical sectors such as energy, materials, and consumer discretionary are expected to see the largest declines in earnings, with energy projected to drop by 28% and materials and consumer discretionary both by 7% [3]. - Conversely, technology and communication services are expected to perform strongly, with projected earnings growth of 18% and 28%, respectively, which will help offset some negative impacts on overall S&P 500 earnings [3]. Group 3: Sales and Capital Expenditure Outlook - Despite tariff pressures, the sales outlook for the S&P 500 remains robust, with nominal GDP growth expected to average 4.5% in 2025 and 5.0% in 2026 [4]. - There is significant variation in capital expenditure expectations across industries, with sectors heavily exposed to AI, such as utilities and information technology, seeing the largest adjustments in capital spending [4]. - Major firms have maintained or increased their capital expenditure forecasts for 2025, indicating confidence in long-term growth despite current challenges [4]. Group 4: 2025 Profitability Outlook - The global tariff policy has caused volatility in the U.S. stock market, but the S&P 500 has rebounded due to signs of economic resilience and optimism regarding Federal Reserve rate cuts [5]. - Goldman Sachs maintains a forecast of 7% EPS growth for the S&P 500 in 2025, projecting EPS to reach $262, although this is lower than the consensus estimate of $300 [5]. - The S&P 500 is expected to rise by 5% over the next 12 months, with a target price of 6,500 points, based on a price-to-earnings ratio of 22 times future EPS [5].

受诸多不确定性因素影响，市场风险偏好依然面临不小挑战。 上周美股涨跌互现，美联储在上半年最后一次议息会议上维持今年降息两次的预期，但暗示关税问题影 响并未显现。 受诸多不确定性因素影响，上周美股基金净流出创今年3月以来新高。临近上半年收官，外界将继续密 切关注中东事态发展，同时关注美联储官员对于货币政策前景的观点，市场风险偏好依然面临不小挑 战。 美联储重申谨慎立场 在投资者试图衡量特朗普关税战的影响之际，美国经济指标出现了一些波动。 衡量美国消费品支出的5月零售环比下滑0.9%，低于预期。鉴于前两个月的强劲数据，上月零售额的下 降可能并不令人意外，这可能是由于预期的关税拉动了需求。不包括食品服务、汽车经销商和加油站等 核心零售增长了0.4%，高于预期的0.3%，这反映了经济增长动能依然稳健。 总体而言，到目前为止适用于大多数进入美国的商品10%关税对消费者价格的压力很小。与此同时，劳 动力市场的弹性也比预期更好。亚特兰大联储最新更新的第二季度国内生产总值（GDP）"即时预测"显 示，经济增速从此前的3.5%略下调至3.4%。 道琼斯市场统计显示，板块跌多涨少。医疗保健行业下挫2.7%，通信服务和原材料跌幅也 ...

Core Viewpoint - The strategist team led by Jill Carey Hall indicates that U.S. bank clients have adopted a defensive stance towards U.S. stocks for the first time in six weeks, with net inflows into defensive sectors and outflows from cyclical sectors [1] Summary by Category - **Client Behavior** - Clients overall are net buyers, with a total net inflow of $800 million [1] - **Sector Performance** - Inflows were observed in technology, energy, healthcare, and consumer staples stocks [1] - The largest outflows were from consumer discretionary stocks, followed by industrials and utilities [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that while U.S. stock markets are experiencing a strong upward trend, there are concerns about potential profit-taking risks due to economic uncertainties and trade tensions [1][6][7] - The S&P 500 index has regained the 6000-point mark, approaching the historical high set in February, driven by robust non-farm payroll data that has boosted market confidence [1][6] - Several institutions have raised their year-end targets for major U.S. stock indices, with Deutsche Bank increasing the S&P 500 target from 6150 to 6550, although they caution about potential instability in future upward trends [6][7] Group 2 - Recent data suggests signs of cooling in the U.S. economy, with the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tool revising Q2 GDP growth down from 4.6% to 3.8% [3] - The labor market shows signs of weakness, with a decline in labor demand and companies hesitant to hire due to trade war uncertainties [3][4] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has risen to a critical level of 4.50%, driven by better-than-expected employment reports, which could indicate improved long-term growth expectations [8]

Group 1 - The recent strengthening of the RMB exchange rate is attributed to two main factors: the depreciation of the USD and the implementation of proactive domestic macroeconomic policies [3] - The USD index has shown a downward trend this year, dropping over 8% from a high of 109 to below 100 [3] - Future RMB exchange rate movements are expected to be influenced by the progress of China-US trade talks and the USD exchange rate [3] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs predicts that the appreciation of the RMB will benefit the Chinese stock market, with an expected improvement in corporate earnings and increased foreign capital inflow [4] - The report estimates that the RMB/USD exchange rate could reach 7.20, 7.10, and 7.00 in the next 3, 6, and 12 months, respectively, indicating a potential 3% appreciation over the next year [4] - Other foreign institutions, such as UBS, also express optimism about the Chinese stock market, noting that the MSCI China Index is undervalued compared to historical averages [5]

①花旗下调标普500指数年终目标至5800 看好科技、医疗及金融板块前景 美股隔夜收跌，特朗普关税不确定性继续令美股承压。花旗最新研报将标普500指数年终目标点位从 6500点大幅下调至5800点，并将每股收益预期从270美元调降至255美元。调整主要基于宏观经济形势演 变及企业业绩承压。在投资策略上，花旗重点推荐：信息技术、通信服务、医疗保健及金融类股，花旗 认为这些板块在当前市场环境下更具增长韧性和投资价值，因此给予"增持"评级。与之相对，花旗对非 必需消费品、工业、必需消费品及原材料板块持审慎态度，给予 "减持" 评级，因为认为这些行业更容 易受到通胀压力和需求波动的影响。 评论员徐广语：纳斯达克4月下旬以来的反弹呈现"预期驱动型"特征，即微软、Meta等云与AI业务超预 期及降息预期推动短期上涨。但上涨的持续性面临三重矛盾：1）特朗普关税暂停仅90天，政策不确定 性犹存；2）科技"七巨头"估值达29.1倍PE，盈利增速（16.8%）能否匹配存疑；3）市场分歧明显，仅 43%成分股维持涨势。当前反弹更多反映风险偏好修复，而非基本面全面改善，投资者需警惕高估值和 政策反复的风险。 申万宏源证券研究所执行总 ...