Core Viewpoint - Several Wall Street institutions believe that the market style may shift towards cyclical sectors due to changes in the macro environment [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Goldman Sachs reports that cyclical stocks have outperformed defensive stocks for 14 consecutive trading days, marking the longest winning streak in over 15 years [1] - Goldman Sachs' economists expect U.S. real GDP growth to accelerate to 2.5% in 2026, surpassing the market consensus of nearly 2% [1] Group 2: Investment Strategies - Piper Sandler's Chief Investment Strategist, Michael Kantrowitz, indicates that investors are beginning to sense signs of a recovery in cyclical sectors [1] - Multiple institutions forecast that financials, industrials, and consumer discretionary sectors are likely to perform well in 2026 [1] - Citigroup strategists recommend investors to increase holdings in financial stocks while underweighting consumer staples [1] - The Citigroup team, led by Adam Pickett, notes that industrial stocks also have potential for rating upgrades [1]

Core Viewpoint - Bridgewater Associates, led by Ray Dalio, is one of the world's top hedge funds managing over $100 billion, making prudent investment decisions despite market uncertainties [1][8] Group 1: Investment Strategy - The fund has made several trades in Q3, reflected in its 13F report, adopting a relatively conservative investment strategy with core holdings in two tech giants and two ETFs [1][8] - The highest allocation is in iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV) at 10.62%, with a 4.83% increase in Q3, holding over 1 million shares since 2010 [2][9] - The second largest holding is SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) at 6.69%, also tracking the S&P 500 index, and has shown a 17.41% increase year-to-date [3][10] Group 2: iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV) - IVV has an asset management size of $733 billion, with a dividend yield of 1.04% and a low fee of 0.03% [2][9] - The ETF has a three-year cumulative return of 94.83% and a five-year return of 114.12%, making it a reliable choice for broad U.S. stock exposure [2][9] - As of 2025, IVV has increased by 17.09%, currently trading at $687.83 [2][9] Group 3: SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) - SPY holds 503 stocks with a fee of 0.09% and a dividend yield of 1.04%, similar to IVV [3][10] - The ETF has a three-year cumulative return of 20.43% and a five-year return of 15.12%, providing a solid foundation for investment portfolios [3][10] - As of 2025, SPY has increased by 17.41%, currently trading at $684.83 [3][10] Group 4: Alphabet (GOOGL) - Alphabet constitutes 2.53% of Bridgewater's portfolio, holding over 3 million shares, despite a gradual reduction in holdings [4][11] - The stock price has surged by 61.89% year-to-date, currently at $308.61, supported by a robust AI ecosystem [4][11] - Recent financial performance includes revenue of $102.3 billion, a 16% year-over-year increase, and a net profit surge of 33% [4][11] Group 5: Microsoft (MSFT) - Microsoft represents 2.23% of the portfolio, with a slight reduction in Q3, yet remains a top holding [6][13] - The stock price has risen by 15.80% year-to-date, currently trading at $484.72, with a dividend yield of 0.75% [6][13] - Recent financial results show revenue of $77.67 billion, an 18% increase, and cloud revenue growth of 28% to $30.9 billion [6][13]

与此同时，衍生品市场的定价信号显示，2026年美股个股相关性将降至历史低点，标志着该年度将主要 由"选股"策略主导。 高盛分析师强调，市场风格切换的迹象已经显现，周期性股票已连续14个交易日跑赢防御性股票，创下 逾15年来的最长连胜纪录。尽管宏观乐观情绪升温，市场目前的定价仍仅反映了接近2%的增长预期， 远低于高盛预测的2.5%，这意味着投资者尚未充分计价2026年经济加速带来的上行潜力。 高盛在最新发布的报告中指出，随着美国经济增长预期在2026年加速，美股市场将迎来一轮盈利繁荣， 投资机会的核心将从人工智能巨头转向周期性板块。 在这一长期前景之下，美股短期走势同样值得关注。尽管标普500指数近期因市场对AI需求的担忧而连 续四个交易日下跌，但高盛指出，年底最后两周历史上是"压倒性的积极季节性时期"。历史数据显示， 12月17日至31日的平均回报率为1.77%，这为股市在年底前反弹提供了空间。 就短期行情而言，由Gail Hafif领导的高盛分析团队指出，美股正进入一个季节性极佳的时间窗口。尽 管标普500指数近期受挫，距离历史高点仍有2.6%的差距，且市场仍在争论AI热潮是否导致了投机性泡 沫，但历史数据 ...

市场言论和投资者焦点往往会随着时间转变。在当前美国政策多变和科技创新加速的环境下，这种现象尤为明显。 年初至今，关税不明朗因素、通胀压力和美国债务攀升曾是市场的主要忧虑，但经济表现强韧和人工智能推动的强劲盈利克服了这些挑战，支持风险资产在 年初至今表现出色，多项股票指数创下历史新高。 展望未来，我们认为风险资产或仍有进一步上行的空间，但个中原因已有所不同。最大的变化在于市场观望美国降息的日子即将结束：美联储对通胀压力可 能温和且逐步的降温更有信心，决策者的焦点正转向经济增长温和放缓。在此背景下，债券市场有望受惠于降息，我们最近已再次上调投资级别债券的观点 至偏高，对冲基金则下调至中性观点。股债相关度下降，令债券的分散风险效益有所提升。此外，随着美元现金利率下降，原本倾向持有现金资产的投资者 或会考虑布局债市。 来源：汇丰 =丰私人银行 目录 04 欢迎辞 05 投资组合策略 10 五大投资趋势和精选主题 20 股票 つつ 24 外汇和大宗商品 26 对冲基金 28 房地产行业 30 私募市场 32 撰稿人 亚洲应对世界新秩序 10 科技颠覆 12 气候行动 14 社会演进 16 把握盈利和降息顺风时机 18 ...

Group 1 - Major Wall Street banks have released their outlooks for the S&P 500 index for the end of 2026, with a general consensus that the index will continue to rise due to the ongoing AI investment wave, a shift to loose monetary policy, and expanding profit growth [1][2][8] - HSBC sets a target of 7500 points for the S&P 500 by the end of 2026, expecting a 12% growth in earnings per share for index constituents, driven by macroeconomic stability and the AI investment boom [2][3] - Societe Generale predicts the S&P 500 could reach 7300 points in 2026, with a potential range reflecting significant market volatility due to monetary policy uncertainty [4] Group 2 - Barclays raises its target for the S&P 500 to 7400 points, citing strong performance from large tech stocks and improving monetary and fiscal conditions, while warning of pressure on non-tech sectors due to rising inflation and unemployment [5][6] - UBS forecasts a target of 7500 points for the S&P 500, driven by strong corporate earnings growth of 14.4% in 2026, despite concerns over valuation risks related to AI stocks [8] - Morgan Stanley anticipates the S&P 500 will rise to 7800 points, supported by Fed rate cuts and efficiency gains from AI technology [11] Group 3 - Deutsche Bank presents the most optimistic outlook, setting a target of 8000 points for the S&P 500, driven by expected earnings growth of 14% and a broader market rally beyond the largest tech companies [12] - Morgan Stanley's strategy team emphasizes that the recent market sell-off is nearing its end, viewing it as an opportunity to position for a bullish 2026 [11] - JPMorgan highlights the K-shaped economic recovery, indicating that while large enterprises benefit from AI, the disparity in consumer confidence and spending may lead to market volatility [10]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley believes that while short-term risks related to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy may persist, the significant adjustment in the U.S. stock market is nearing its end, providing a good opportunity for investors to position themselves for 2026. Analysts maintain a bullish stance for the next 12 months, particularly recommending sectors such as consumer goods, healthcare, finance, industrials, and small-cap stocks [1][5][26]. Market Adjustment Insights - Despite a modest 5% pullback in the S&P 500 index, two-thirds of the top 1000 companies have experienced declines exceeding 10%, indicating a substantial internal market adjustment [2][6]. - The adjustment is attributed to two main factors: high momentum stocks are more sensitive to liquidity tightening, and high-quality indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 reacted strongly to hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve [6][8]. Liquidity and Market Conditions - The report highlights that the recent volatility in the U.S. stock market, driven by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and liquidity constraints, presents a buying opportunity for bullish investors [4][7]. - Morgan Stanley anticipates that liquidity conditions will improve as the U.S. government shutdown ends, leading to a significant decrease in the Treasury General Account (TGA) balance, which is expected to enhance liquidity in the short term [16][17]. 2026 Outlook - The firm expresses a contrarian view for 2026, suggesting that the market is in an "early cycle" phase, contrary to the prevailing consensus of being in a "late cycle" [18][19]. - Morgan Stanley projects a 17% earnings growth for Nasdaq-related companies in 2026, surpassing the consensus estimate of 14% [19]. - The firm has upgraded small-cap stocks and non-essential consumer goods to an overweight rating, citing factors such as pent-up demand and a shift in consumer spending from services to goods [20][21]. Earnings and Market Sentiment - Despite the recent market downturn, the underlying fundamentals of companies remain strong, indicating that the current adjustment is driven by policy and liquidity rather than a collapse in fundamentals [22][26]. - The breadth of earnings revisions for the Nasdaq 100 index has increased, with future net profit expectations for major indices continuing to rise, particularly for small-cap stocks [23][24].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant decline in consumer confidence in the U.S., with implications for the consumer sector and overall economic outlook [3][6]. Consumer Confidence - The final consumer confidence index for November dropped from 53.6 in October to 51, marking a historical low [3][6]. - The current conditions index fell by 7.5 points to 51.1, also a record low [3][6]. - Consumer assessments of personal financial situations have decreased by approximately 15%, with 47% of consumers citing high prices as a negative impact on their finances [6][10]. Stock Market Performance - The consumer sector in the U.S. stock market has faced significant sell-offs, with the essential consumer goods sector declining at three times the rate of the S&P 500 index since October [3][4]. - Non-essential consumer goods have also seen a 5.2% decline, making it one of the worst-performing sectors in the market during this period [4][6]. - If the market closes this week as projected, it will be the first time since 1990 that both essential and non-essential consumer sectors are the weakest among the 11 sectors of the S&P 500 [4][5]. Economic Implications - Consumer spending accounts for approximately 70% of the U.S. economy, making it a critical variable despite current market focus on companies like Nvidia [6]. - The article notes that consumer sentiment is deteriorating, with 69% of consumers expecting unemployment rates to rise, up from 64% in October [6][10]. - The disparity in financial health among different income groups is widening, with wealthier consumers maintaining spending while those without stock assets are experiencing worsening financial conditions [10].

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley predicts that the performance of the US stock market in 2026 will outperform stocks in other regions of the world [1] - The rating for the US consumer discretionary sector has been upgraded from underweight to overweight [1] - The rating for the US healthcare sector has been upgraded from market weight to overweight [1]

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup has upgraded its rating for the global non-essential consumer goods sector from "underweight" to "neutral" [1] Group 1 - The upgrade reflects a more positive outlook for the non-essential consumer goods industry [1]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market is showing unique investment value due to a combination of factors, particularly driven by policy support and capital inflows [1] - The Chinese government's proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy provide a stable environment for economic growth, benefiting the Hong Kong stock market [1] - Recent policy measures announced by the Chief Executive of Hong Kong aim to attract more companies to list in Hong Kong, enhancing market vitality and providing investors with diverse investment options [1] Group 2 - There is a significant inflow of capital into the Hong Kong stock market, with southbound funds exceeding 1 trillion HKD this year, indicating increased demand from mainland investors [1][2] - The attractiveness of Hong Kong stocks has increased for foreign investors due to the U.S. entering a rate-cutting cycle, making it a primary channel for allocating quality Chinese assets [1] - The valuation of the Hong Kong stock market remains significantly lower than other major markets, providing potential investment opportunities, especially in the technology sector [2] Group 3 - The industry structure of the Hong Kong stock market is undergoing optimization, with a shift from a finance-dominated market to a more diversified one, particularly in non-essential consumer goods and information technology [3] - The rise of new economic forces allows investors to access emerging companies through the Hong Kong stock market, effectively diversifying market risks and reducing portfolio volatility [3] - The current environment in the Hong Kong stock market is favorable for various types of investors, whether they seek steady long-term growth or aim to capitalize on short-term fluctuations [3]