Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the text. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The U.S. stock market is facing a significant downward shock, and investors should be cautious of the spill - over risk of the U.S. stock market during the long holiday. Global risk preference has shifted, and it is advisable to exit long positions in stock index futures and reduce positions in equity assets before the holiday [1][64]. Summary by Related Catalogues U.S. Stock Market - The expectation of the balance - sheet reduction policy of the incoming Fed Chairman Wash has severely hit the silver market and changed the market risk preference, leading to an upward movement of the U.S. dollar index [3][5]. - The Nasdaq is on shaky ground, with retail trading dominating. The Dow Jones Industrial Average hitting a new high is a result of the rotation of funds in the U.S. stock market, which is a dangerous signal for technology stocks represented by the Nasdaq [8][11]. - The S&P software index has been severely hit due to the acceleration of AI substitution, and $400 billion in private equity credit funds are in trouble. Amazon's 2026 capital expenditure guidance has increased to $200 billion, but the market has responded negatively [13][16]. - Due to power constraints, the growth of U.S. computing power may slow down significantly, and AI progress will hit a ceiling. Microsoft in MAGA7 has tumbled into a technical bear market due to AI's impact on the software industry and power constraints on capital expenditure [18][21]. - The Nasdaq has fallen below the six - month moving average, and the rebound on Friday was a technical pullback. A downward shock in the U.S. stock market is imminent [24]. Japanese Market - After the victory of the Japanese high - level government in the House of Representatives election, Japanese government bonds will face a new round of selling pressure, and Japanese bond yields are expected to continue to soar. A new round of yen depreciation may be inevitable. If the Bank of Japan continues to raise interest rates, yen carry - trade funds will flow back rapidly, impacting the global equity and bond markets [26][28]. Chinese Market - The Hang Seng Technology Index has broken through its support level. The CSI 500 Index has shown a phased top and entered an adjustment period. The CSI 300 Index has broken through its support level, with a locked - in area of 1 trillion yuan in ETFs above, forming a significant resistance level [31][34][36]. - The margin trading balance has entered a de - leveraging phase [39]. - In December, the year - on - year growth rate of the core CPI was 1.2%, and the real interest rate has been negative continuously, with a month - on - month growth of 0.2%. The month - on - month increase in the industrial producer purchase price index in December was 0.4%, indicating that the Chinese economy is moving towards re - inflation [42][45]. - China's export value in December reached a record high of $357.7 billion, with a year - on - year growth rate of 6.6%, showing resilience in exports [47]. - In December, the month - on - month value of manufacturing fixed - asset investment was 2.87 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate of - 10.5%, indicating a stall in manufacturing investment. The month - on - month value of infrastructure investment was 2.08 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate of - 15.9%, reflecting the financial difficulties of local governments. The year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment in December was - 36.8%, hitting a new low [50][53][56]. - The total retail sales of consumer goods in December was 4.51 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate of 0.9%. In the context of a downward export outlook and a stall in investment, consumption has become the main driving force for economic growth, but the year - on - year growth rate in December hit a new low [59]. - The acceleration of the RMB's appreciation is conducive to the continuous inflow of international capital into China [62].

在这个动荡不安的时代，国际经济与政治的天平正在悄然倾斜。近期，美联储与白宫之间的博弈彰显出了一场复杂而 微妙的权力斗争，其中蕴含着未来全球经济走向的重要信号。尤其是当美国即将迎来新一任美联储主席时，市场的目 光不由自主地聚焦在六月份。这一切究竟预示着什么？让我们深挖其背后的故事，揭示潜藏在数据背后的悬念与影 响。 1月29日，美联储宣布维持利率不变，这个决定实现了从2025年9月以来的首次停滞，市场普遍预计降息将在2026年6月 到来。随之而来的是特朗普总统的任命——凯文·沃什即将接替鲍威尔，成为下一任美联储主席。表面上看，这似乎是 一次平和的交接，可细细品味，却暗藏着诸多不言而喻的政治信号。 鲍威尔在新闻发布会上提到，美国经济已处于"坚实基础之上"，而通胀与就业双重风险"均已减弱"。这些词汇虽华 美，却意味着现阶段降息几无可能。他的表态实际上是在为自己的未来铺路，尤其是在面临着美国司法部对其预算超 支的刑事调查的情况下。毫无疑问，鲍威尔此举可视为一种微妙的示弱信号，既是为了保护自身利益，也是留给后任 足够的政策空间。 然而，值得关注的是，关税问题仍然是美联储决策的重要因素之一。当前，美国的核心通胀率仍未达到 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. government is facing a shutdown crisis as Congress has rejected short-term funding bills, risking a funding lapse by September 30, which could lead to 800,000 federal employees being furloughed and a quarterly GDP annualized growth reduction of approximately 0.2 percentage points [1][3] - The current political climate is marked by unprecedented measures from the White House, including requests for federal agencies to prepare for large-scale layoffs, indicating potential long-term structural adjustments within federal agencies and their employees [3][5] - The ongoing deterioration of bipartisan relations has resulted in significant opposition on key issues such as healthcare and immigration, with the Trump administration's relationship with congressional leaders being particularly strained, which could lead to immediate impacts on millions of citizens reliant on government assistance programs [5][7] Group 2 - The potential government shutdown could result in a weekly GDP loss of $7 billion, affecting federal employee salary payments and consequently reducing consumer spending, which may heighten market fears regarding policy uncertainty [7] - The U.S. national debt has surpassed $37 trillion, with the Federal Reserve becoming the largest seller of U.S. Treasuries, reducing its holdings from $5.8 trillion to $4.2 trillion since 2022, reflecting a tightening monetary policy amid inflation and employment pressures [10] - The U.S. economy is facing self-imposed challenges, such as tariffs that could lead to an annual loss of $125 billion, alongside border restrictions and immigration limitations that may further slow economic growth [10][11]