这次讲话与以往截然不同，特朗普全程严格照稿宣读，表情严肃，没有一丝玩笑。语速也相当快，有时 让人难以跟上话题的转变。本以为这场讲话会传达出清晰的执政信号，结果内容一出来，立刻让事实核 查员忙得不可开交。 大家好，今天小墨将分析特朗普的全国讲话风格突变，探讨其内容引发的争议以及背后的现实原因。 特朗普以往的演讲风格大家都知道，通常随性而不拘小节，尤其在竞选集会上，经常脱稿发挥，嬉笑怒 骂，甚至会说出一些让人意想不到的话。但12月17日的全国电视讲话却让人大吃一惊，这位政坛网红竟 然在讲话中完全变脸。当晚7点，美国各大电视台暂停正常节目，全程转播了特朗普的18分钟全国讲 话。 特朗普的讲话风格变化并非没有原因。全国电视讲话是美国最高规格的官方发言，通常用于宣布重大政 策或应对全国性危机等重要场合。在这次讲话之前，特朗普政府正面临巨大的执政压力。根据人民网的 报道，路透社和益普索集团的最新民调显示，仅有33%的美国成年人支持特朗普的经济政策，这是他第 二任期以来的最低支持率。 即使是特朗普的核心支持者——让美国再次伟大阵营的选民，他的支持率也比今年4月下降了8个百分 点。更令人担忧的是，美国的民生困境。美国劳工部1 ...

【环球时报驻美国特约记者 李准 环球时报特约记者 裴茗】当地时间17日晚，美国总统特朗普在黄金时段发表全国电视讲话。在18分钟的时间 里，他谈及移民、通货膨胀、减税、医疗保险等诸多话题，但在美国全国广播公司（NBC）等媒体看来，他主要是想"为自己的经济政策作辩 护"，并暗示美国民众需要保持耐心，因为他的政策正在逐步产生效果。"情况比你们想象的要好。"美国Axios网站总结称，这是特朗普向美国民 众传递的信息。他在讲话中称，"我们即将迎来世界从未见过的经济繁荣景象"。美联社说，特朗普此次发表演讲正值一个"关键时刻"。民调显 示，美民众对现政府处理经济问题方式的支持率创下新低。美国《时代》周刊称，考虑到2026年将举行中期选举，特朗普及共和党人将把扭转民 意下滑作为其首要任务，而经济议题是其中的关键所在。特朗普在今年即将收官之际发表的这场讲话主要聚焦了美国国内话题，但自就任总统以 来，他给全世界也带来了许多变化，一些外媒最近对此进行了总结。美国《时代》周刊提到了特朗普的关税政策、美欧关系、美推动加沙和谈 等，并用"旋风式"一词形容特朗普重返白宫后的第一年。 美媒：一改往日演讲风格 《纽约时报》称，特朗普17日在白 ...

这次讲话正值特朗普重返白宫第一年即将结束之际，对他来说是一个关键时刻，因为他的民意支持率正 在走软，而且经济正面临不利因素。 特朗普在上任的这一年里，一直致力于重塑美国与全球的经济和国家安全关系。他对贸易伙伴和关键行 业征收关税，并与欧盟和北约等盟友在国防开支、移民和文化问题以及如何制止俄罗斯在乌克兰的战争 等问题上产生冲突。 智通财经APP获悉，美国总统特朗普表示，他将于周三晚上（北京时间周四上午10点）向全国发表黄金 时段讲话，这是一个向选民宣传其议程的机会，此前民意调查显示公众对他的经济方针感到不满。 特朗普周二在一则社交媒体帖子中宣布："美国同胞们：我将于明天晚上9点（美国东部时间）在白宫向 全国发表直播讲话。我期待届时'见到'你们。对我们国家而言，这是伟大的一年，最好的还在后头！ （THE BEST IS YET TO COME）" 白宫新闻秘书卡罗琳·莱维特在总统宣布后接受采访时表示，特朗普将利用这次演讲详细阐述"他在过去 一年里为我们国家取得的历史性成就"，并"预告一些即将在新年出台的政策"。 这次讲话为特朗普提供了一个平台，来强调他的成就并概述他来年的优先事项，届时共和党人将在明年 11 月的 ...

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market faced pressure with all three major indices closing lower: Nasdaq down 1.57%, S&P 500 down 0.99%, and Dow Jones down 0.23%, primarily driven by declines in technology stocks [1] - Meta's stock fell 11.33%, marking its largest drop in three years, while Microsoft's stock decreased by 2.92%, as investors expressed concerns over rising expenditures in the AI sector [1] Semiconductor Sector - The semiconductor sector also experienced a downturn, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropping 1.53%, where 22 out of 30 component stocks declined, including AMD down 3.59%, Broadcom down 2.46%, and Nvidia down 2%, with its market value falling below $500 billion [2] - Analyst Matt Maley from Miller Tabak indicated that while this does not suggest an imminent AI bubble burst or a major market reversal, it does increase the likelihood of a short-term pullback [2] Chinese Stocks - Most popular Chinese stocks also saw declines, with notable drops including Xiaoma Zhixing down 6.79%, Baidu down 4.54%, Alibaba down 3.36%, Tencent Music down 3.23%, JD down 2.88%, Li Auto down 2.34%, NIO down 1.82%, Pinduoduo down 1.5%, and Xpeng down 0.99% [2] Economic Concerns - Ongoing debates regarding the U.S. economic fundamentals and policy direction were highlighted, with Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon warning that if U.S. economic growth does not accelerate, rising debt levels could pose a "cleansing" risk to the economy [2] - Solomon noted that fiscal stimulus and aggressive fiscal operations have become deeply embedded in the U.S. and other economies, exacerbated by pandemic-related measures, and emphasized that the key to overcoming these challenges lies in growth [2] Recession Outlook - Solomon also stated that the likelihood of a recession in the near term is "low" and dismissed concerns that a few bankruptcy cases could trigger a systemic credit crisis in the U.S. [3] Federal Reserve Criticism - U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessen criticized the Federal Reserve's recent cautious statements, suggesting that the Fed needs comprehensive reform despite appreciating the recent 25 basis point rate cut [4] - Bessen pointed out that the Fed's inflation forecasts have been inaccurate and indicated plans to conduct a second round of candidate interviews in early December to select a successor for Fed Chair Jerome Powell, aiming for a leader who can reshape the Fed's internal processes and operations [4]

gfchenjiali@gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 摘要 第一， 根据美国劳工部 8 月 1 日公布数据 ， 7 月美国就业数据显著 走低 。 7 月新增非农 7.3 万人，低于预期的 10.4 万人。 此外，前两月数据显著下修， 5 月和 6 月数据共下修 25.8 万人， 5 月数据下修 12.5 万人至 1.9 万人， 6 月数据下修 13.3 万人至 1.4 万人。 由于几天前公布的美国二季度 GDP 数据、 7 月"小非农" ADP 就业数据均比较高，导致预期差就更明显。 第二， 为何 非农数据波动那么大 ？ 实际上，近年非农数据的波动变得非常频繁，修正幅度有时也比较大，我们理解其背后可能"一套已经存在技术问题的统计方 法 vs 越来越复杂的现实"。一则是企业生死模型（ NBD ）的技术性失真。 NBD 模型假定企业新成立与倒闭所带来的就业净增长是相对稳定的，但近年的复杂宏 观环境打破了这一假设；二是季节调整技术的落后也是部分月份数据偏差的另一个原因， 在经济发生结构性变化时，季节性调整模型可能无法立即适应，从而使得 初始就业数据偏离实际情况， 带来 后续 大幅 修正 ；三是 BLS 调查 ...

Core Viewpoint - The White House has initiated an investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell due to alleged excessive spending on renovations, which reportedly cost over $2.5 billion, raising concerns about mismanagement [1][3]. Group 1: Investigation and Spending - The White House budget office has criticized Powell's renovation project, comparing its extravagance to the Palace of Versailles, indicating a significant mismanagement of funds [1][3]. - The Federal Reserve has defended the spending, claiming that the $2.5 billion includes various "invisible factors," but skepticism remains among the public and media regarding the justification of such a large expenditure [1][4]. Group 2: Political Pressure and Independence - President Trump has been vocal about his desire for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, threatening Powell with potential dismissal if he does not comply, despite the challenges of removing a Federal Reserve chairman due to its independent status [3][4]. - The ongoing conflict between Trump and Powell highlights the tension between political influence and the Federal Reserve's independence, which is legally protected to ensure unbiased monetary policy decisions [4][5]. Group 3: Implications for Economic Policy - The investigation into the renovation spending is seen as a strategic move by Trump to exert pressure on Powell to lower interest rates, which would help alleviate the government's debt burden and stimulate the economy [3][5]. - The outcome of this confrontation could have significant implications for U.S. economic policy and potentially affect the global economy, depending on whether Powell can withstand the pressure or if he is forced to resign [5].

Core Viewpoint - The June employment report released by the U.S. Department of Labor has significant implications for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and highlights the ongoing tension between President Trump and Fed Chairman Powell [1][3]. Employment Data Summary - The seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000 in June, surpassing market expectations of 110,000 and exceeding the previous month's growth [3]. - The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, marking the lowest level since February and below both the expected and prior month's figures [3]. Political Implications - Strong employment data suggests that the Federal Reserve may delay interest rate cuts, which is contrary to President Trump's calls for more aggressive monetary easing [3][5]. - Trump criticized Powell, labeling him as "Mr. Too Late," and pointed to the Fed's budget overruns as a reason for potential congressional investigations [3][5]. Economic Context - The report reflects a robust U.S. economy and a thriving job market, yet it poses challenges for Trump, who is concerned about the implications for his economic agenda [3][5]. - Powell's reluctance to cut rates is influenced by fears of rising inflation, which is partly attributed to Trump's tariff policies [5]. Federal Reserve Leadership Concerns - Trump's dissatisfaction with Powell has led to speculation about potential changes in Fed leadership, with reports indicating he has a shortlist of candidates for replacement [7]. - The strong employment report has increased the likelihood that interest rates will remain unchanged in July, with market predictions showing a 95.3% probability of no rate cut [8]. Broader Economic and Political Landscape - The ongoing struggle over interest rate policy illustrates the complex interplay between U.S. economic conditions and political pressures, highlighting the delicate relationship between the President and the central bank [10].

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin announced that the Trump administration will begin searching for a successor to Federal Reserve Chairman Powell this fall, adding uncertainty to U.S. economic policy [3] - Mnuchin indicated that the government has identified "many good candidates" for the position, although specific names have not been disclosed [3] - Powell has faced criticism from Trump due to policy disagreements, making his future a focal point for market attention [3] Group 2 - The current trading price of paper silver is 8.475 CNY per gram, with a slight decline of 0.04% [1] - The trading range for paper silver shows resistance levels at 8.538-8.548 CNY and support levels at 8.214-8.224 CNY [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that President Trump is considering an early nomination for the next Federal Reserve Chair to undermine the current Chair, Jerome Powell, who has 11 months left in his term [1] - Typically, the nomination for the Federal Reserve Chair occurs in the second half of the year, particularly in November and December, but Trump's potential early announcement indicates significant dissatisfaction with Powell [1] - Trump's administration has imposed tariffs, worsening inflation in the U.S., leading him to desire a rate cut from the Federal Reserve to alleviate economic and market pressures [1] Group 2 - If Trump proceeds with an early nomination, it could create a situation where the current Chair Powell and the nominee are in opposition, potentially undermining Powell's authority and the Federal Reserve's influence on both U.S. and global markets [2] - This dual leadership scenario may hinder the Federal Reserve's ability to communicate clear signals to the market, possibly exacerbating confusion in U.S. economic and macroeconomic policies, which could be detrimental to both the U.S. and global economies [2]

Group 1 - The World Economic Forum's 16th Annual Meeting of the New Champions, also known as the "Summer Davos Forum," was held in Tianjin from June 24 to June 26 [1] - A majority of economists surveyed believe that current U.S. economic policies will have a lasting impact on the global economy, with 87% predicting delays in strategic business decisions and increased recession risks [3] - Huang Yiping, Dean of the National School of Development at Peking University, emphasized the need for more proactive fiscal policies in the face of economic uncertainty [3] Group 2 - Huang Yiping highlighted the importance of distinguishing between short-term and long-term fiscal policies, advocating for constraints on government spending to avoid sustainability issues [3] - The concept of fiscal sustainability was discussed, indicating its significance for the functioning of government and the achievement of national development strategies [4] - Huang also pointed out the necessity to boost domestic demand and consumption in China, given the changing dynamics of global markets [4] Group 3 - The chief economist's briefing indicated that artificial intelligence is expected to drive growth, but 47% of respondents anticipate job losses as a result [5]