民 主党众议员艾尔·格林在国会手举写有"黑人不是猿"的横幅 美国总统特朗普24日晚在国会发表国情咨文演讲，对其重返白宫一年多来的施政进行盘点，着重强调其在经济民生方面的"政绩"，称现在美国处于"黄金时 代"，"比以往任何时候都更加强大、更加美好、更加富裕"。在特朗普眼里，这一年，美国简直"赢麻了"。 然而，在特朗普发表国情咨文演讲前一日，美国全国公共广播电台等发布的民调却显示，55%的受访者认为，美国状况比一年前更糟。 点名讽刺"死对头"佩洛西 IN GOD WE TRUST 1 7 2433 and and the First Friday the Real Services 美国总统特朗普24日在国会发表国情咨文演讲，其间呼吁国会出台法案禁止议员搞证券内幕交易，并点名他的"死对头"、民主党籍众议院前议长南希·佩洛 西"起立了吗"？ 特朗普说："让我们确保没有国会议员能通过内幕交易以腐败方式获利。"当看到一些民主党籍议员对这番言论起立鼓掌时，这名共和党籍总统说："他们起 立了，简直难以置信。" "南希·佩洛西起立了吗？如果她来了的话。"特朗普补充道。 特朗普与佩洛西一直"不对付"。佩洛西分别在2019年和2 ...

本文首发于"见闻VIP"作者乐鸣，为见闻付费会员文章，现作为粉丝福利免费试读，欢迎点击阅读原文订阅"见闻VIP"。 欧洲最大资产管理公司、管理资产规模达2.8万亿欧元 （约23万亿元） 的法国东方汇理资产管理公司（Amundi）发出了一个震耳欲聋的信号： 逃离美元资产。 该公司正在 减少对美元资产的投资 ，将 投资重心转向欧洲和新兴市场。 且警告称，如果美国经济政策维持现状，美元将继续走弱。 作为典型的稳健型机构投资者，东方汇理通常不会进行激进的资产配置调整。 此次公开宣布减少美元敞口，并将重心转向欧洲和新兴市场，其背后的深层逻辑究竟是什么？ 东方汇理的角度 首先，我们需要从东方汇理的角度来看这一个问题。 东方汇理作为稳健型投资者， 最厌恶的是不可量化的尾部风险和资产相关性的失效 ，而2026年的美国市场，恰恰呈现出这两种特征的危险趋同。 长期以来，美国国债被视为全球无风险资产的锚，而美元则是对冲地缘政治风险的终极避风港。 然而，东方汇理的首席投资官Vincent Mortier及其研究团队的分析表明，这一假设正在发生质变。 根据东方汇理的预测，2026年美国实际GDP增速将显著放缓至1.6%，远低于2023 ...

重大行情/事件点评 贵金属市场波动、政策变革与历史镜鉴 2026 年2 月5 日 研究员：赵嘉瑜 13686866941 zhaojiayu@cmschina.com.cn Z0016776 近期贵金属市场出现史诗级波动，白银价格暴涨暴跌的态势，与 1979-1980 年亨 特兄弟白银逼仓事件形成跨越时空的呼应。与此同时，2026 年美国政坛迎来重要 变动，特朗普提名凯文・沃什出任下一任美联储主席，其政策主张引发市场对美 国货币政策、财政纪律及全球资产定价的广泛热议。本报告整合相关宏观分析成 果，从历史复盘、当下市场特征、政策变革挑战及投资启示四大维度，系统剖析 贵金属市场波动逻辑与美国经济政策走向，为市场参与者提供参考。 风险提示：沃什未能成为美联储主席 微信公众号：招商期货研究所 敬请阅读末页的重要声明 期货研究 一、 历史复盘：1979-1980 年白银逼仓事件始末 （一） 时代背景：滞胀危机与货币体系变革 20 世纪 70 年代，美国深陷滞胀泥潭，中东二次石油危机爆发导致 CPI 飙升至 12.5%，黄金、白银成为核心避险资产。布雷顿森林体系崩溃后，大宗商品价格暴涨， 股市、债市持续低迷，形成商品资源 ...

在这个动荡不安的时代，国际经济与政治的天平正在悄然倾斜。近期，美联储与白宫之间的博弈彰显出了一场复杂而 微妙的权力斗争，其中蕴含着未来全球经济走向的重要信号。尤其是当美国即将迎来新一任美联储主席时，市场的目 光不由自主地聚焦在六月份。这一切究竟预示着什么？让我们深挖其背后的故事，揭示潜藏在数据背后的悬念与影 响。 1月29日，美联储宣布维持利率不变，这个决定实现了从2025年9月以来的首次停滞，市场普遍预计降息将在2026年6月 到来。随之而来的是特朗普总统的任命——凯文·沃什即将接替鲍威尔，成为下一任美联储主席。表面上看，这似乎是 一次平和的交接，可细细品味，却暗藏着诸多不言而喻的政治信号。 鲍威尔在新闻发布会上提到，美国经济已处于"坚实基础之上"，而通胀与就业双重风险"均已减弱"。这些词汇虽华 美，却意味着现阶段降息几无可能。他的表态实际上是在为自己的未来铺路，尤其是在面临着美国司法部对其预算超 支的刑事调查的情况下。毫无疑问，鲍威尔此举可视为一种微妙的示弱信号，既是为了保护自身利益，也是留给后任 足够的政策空间。 然而，值得关注的是，关税问题仍然是美联储决策的重要因素之一。当前，美国的核心通胀率仍未达到 ...

格隆汇1月21日｜美国总统特朗普周三在达沃斯发表演讲时称其政策开启了美国经济的繁荣局面，并表 示其施政纲领为欧洲提供了可供效仿的范例。特朗普表示："昨天是我就职一周年纪念日，而如今，在 重返白宫12个月后，我们的经济正在蓬勃发展。经济增长迅猛，生产率大幅提高，投资大幅增长，收入 也稳步上升。通货膨胀问题已被解决。"同时，他利用自己的演讲机会向欧洲发出了严厉的警告，指出 欧洲大陆的自由派政府已经落后于美国，而各国领导人需要效仿他的模式，为民众提供保障。特朗普表 示："美国是全球的经济引擎，当美国经济繁荣时，整个世界都会随之繁荣；而当美国经济出现问题 时，整个世界也会随之陷入困境。这就是历史的规律。我喜欢欧洲，也希望看到欧洲繁荣发展，但它的 发展方向并不正确。" ...

Core Viewpoint - Trump's recent national address marked a significant shift in his speaking style, moving from a casual and spontaneous approach to a more formal and scripted delivery, reflecting the pressures his administration is currently facing [1][3][4]. Group 1: Speech Style and Context - The national address was broadcasted live on major television networks, lasting 18 minutes, and was characterized by a serious tone and rapid speech, making it difficult for some viewers to follow [3][4]. - This change in style is attributed to the significant political pressure on the Trump administration, with only 33% of American adults supporting his economic policies, the lowest since his second term began [4][6]. Group 2: Economic Issues and Public Sentiment - Trump's approval rating among his core supporters has dropped by 8 percentage points since April, indicating growing discontent even within his base [6]. - The U.S. unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in November, the highest level since October 2021, with approximately 7.83 million unemployed individuals, highlighting the economic challenges facing the country [6]. - Nearly half of survey respondents reported feeling significant pressure regarding daily living expenses, with many believing that the current cost of living is at a historical high [6]. Group 3: Key Themes in the Address - The first major theme of the address involved Trump blaming the previous Biden administration for the current economic issues, stating he inherited a "mess" and is working to fix it [8][9]. - The second theme focused on optimistic projections for the economy, with Trump claiming inflation has stopped and promising economic recovery by 2026, including significant drops in prices for goods and lower loan rates [9][10]. Group 4: Controversial Proposals - Trump proposed a "warrior bonus" plan to distribute $1,776 checks to 1.45 million U.S. military personnel, funded by tariffs on imported goods, which has raised concerns about the legality of the tariffs [14][15]. - The announcement of this plan comes amid ongoing legal considerations regarding the tariffs, potentially creating a sense of urgency or pressure on judicial decisions [15]. Group 5: Monetary Policy and Economic Strategy - Trump's administration appears to favor increased spending rather than debt reduction, aligning with a broader political perspective that prioritizes economic stimulus through expanded fiscal measures [19]. - The market anticipates a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in January, with a 28.8% probability of a 25 basis point reduction, reflecting the administration's push for looser monetary policy to alleviate economic pressures [17].

Core Points - The main focus of Trump's speech was to defend his economic policies and encourage patience among the American public, suggesting that the economy is improving and will soon experience unprecedented prosperity [1][3][4] - The speech comes at a critical time as public support for the government's handling of economic issues has reached a new low, with upcoming midterm elections in 2026 making economic topics crucial for the Republican Party [1][6][8] Economic Policy Summary - Trump emphasized that he inherited a difficult economic situation and claimed significant positive changes have occurred in the past 11 months, including rising worker incomes and a decrease in inflation [3][4] - He highlighted the expected "largest tax refund season in history" in spring 2024, attributing this to tax cuts supported by the White House [4][6] - The speech included claims of a decrease in prices for essential goods like eggs and Thanksgiving turkeys, and he presented charts to support his assertion of an improving economy [4][6] Political Context - Trump's speech was characterized as having a partisan tone, aimed at rebuilding his declining support as polls show only 33% of Americans approve of his economic measures [6][8] - The speech was notably shorter and more focused than his usual style, indicating a shift towards a more structured approach in addressing economic concerns [5][6] - The backdrop of rising inflation and a recent increase in unemployment to 4.6%, the highest in over four years, adds pressure to Trump's economic narrative [6][8] International Relations and Policy Impact - Trump's administration has been active in international affairs, pressuring European nations to increase military spending and providing military aid to Ukraine, which has received mixed reactions from the American public [7][8] - The administration's trade policies, including high tariffs, have caused volatility in the stock market and uncertainty for businesses regarding import costs [7][8]

Group 1 - President Trump will deliver a prime-time address to the nation, aiming to promote his agenda amid declining public support for his economic policies [1][2] - The speech will highlight Trump's historical achievements over the past year and preview upcoming policies for the new year [1][2] - The address comes at a critical time as Trump's approval ratings are softening, and economic indicators show warning signs, including slowing wage growth and rising living costs [2][3] Group 2 - Trump has been reshaping the federal government by reducing its size and cutting funding for long-criticized programs, while also focusing on immigration policies [2] - The upcoming midterm elections in November will serve as a test of Trump's power and legislative agenda, with the potential for the Republican Party to lose seats in Congress [2] - Political opponents are criticizing Trump's tariffs, linking them to rising consumer prices and inflation, which have become key concerns for voters [2]

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market faced pressure with all three major indices closing lower: Nasdaq down 1.57%, S&P 500 down 0.99%, and Dow Jones down 0.23%, primarily driven by declines in technology stocks [1] - Meta's stock fell 11.33%, marking its largest drop in three years, while Microsoft's stock decreased by 2.92%, as investors expressed concerns over rising expenditures in the AI sector [1] Semiconductor Sector - The semiconductor sector also experienced a downturn, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropping 1.53%, where 22 out of 30 component stocks declined, including AMD down 3.59%, Broadcom down 2.46%, and Nvidia down 2%, with its market value falling below $500 billion [2] - Analyst Matt Maley from Miller Tabak indicated that while this does not suggest an imminent AI bubble burst or a major market reversal, it does increase the likelihood of a short-term pullback [2] Chinese Stocks - Most popular Chinese stocks also saw declines, with notable drops including Xiaoma Zhixing down 6.79%, Baidu down 4.54%, Alibaba down 3.36%, Tencent Music down 3.23%, JD down 2.88%, Li Auto down 2.34%, NIO down 1.82%, Pinduoduo down 1.5%, and Xpeng down 0.99% [2] Economic Concerns - Ongoing debates regarding the U.S. economic fundamentals and policy direction were highlighted, with Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon warning that if U.S. economic growth does not accelerate, rising debt levels could pose a "cleansing" risk to the economy [2] - Solomon noted that fiscal stimulus and aggressive fiscal operations have become deeply embedded in the U.S. and other economies, exacerbated by pandemic-related measures, and emphasized that the key to overcoming these challenges lies in growth [2] Recession Outlook - Solomon also stated that the likelihood of a recession in the near term is "low" and dismissed concerns that a few bankruptcy cases could trigger a systemic credit crisis in the U.S. [3] Federal Reserve Criticism - U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessen criticized the Federal Reserve's recent cautious statements, suggesting that the Fed needs comprehensive reform despite appreciating the recent 25 basis point rate cut [4] - Bessen pointed out that the Fed's inflation forecasts have been inaccurate and indicated plans to conduct a second round of candidate interviews in early December to select a successor for Fed Chair Jerome Powell, aiming for a leader who can reshape the Fed's internal processes and operations [4]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. employment data for July showed a significant decline, with non-farm payrolls increasing by only 73,000, which was below the expected 104,000. Additionally, the data for the previous two months was notably revised downwards, with a total downward revision of 258,000 for May and June combined [1][6]. Group 1: Employment Data Analysis - The July non-farm payrolls increased by 73,000, significantly lower than the expected 104,000. The revisions for May and June were substantial, with May revised down by 125,000 to 19,000 and June revised down by 133,000 to 14,000 [1][6]. - The volatility in non-farm data has become more frequent, attributed to technical issues in statistical methods and the increasingly complex economic environment. Factors include the limitations of the New Business Dynamics (NBD) model, outdated seasonal adjustment techniques, and significant fluctuations in U.S. economic policies [2][8]. - In July, the government sector cut 10,000 jobs, while the private sector added 83,000 jobs, which was below the expected 100,000. The healthcare, retail trade, and financial sectors contributed positively, while professional and business services, manufacturing, and government sectors were the main detractors [3][21]. Group 2: Unemployment Rate Insights - The unemployment rate (U3) increased from 4.12% to 4.25%. The rise in the unemployment rate for new entrants to the job market was a significant factor, moving from 0.42% to 0.58%. The permanent unemployment rate remained stable at 1.11% [4][22][23]. - The number of people transitioning from employment to unemployment rose significantly, while those moving from unemployment to employment decreased, indicating a weakening trend in the labor market [24][25]. Group 3: Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy Response - The Federal Reserve decided not to cut interest rates in July, with two members voting against the decision. The July non-farm data somewhat supported their viewpoint. Market expectations for a rate cut in September surged, with the probability rising to 80.3% from 37.7% [5][30][32]. - The market reacted negatively to the significant slowdown in non-farm data, raising concerns about the impact of tariffs on the U.S. economy. This led to declines in major stock indices and a drop in bond yields [5][32].