gfchenjiali@gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 摘要 第一， 根据美国劳工部 8 月 1 日公布数据 ， 7 月美国就业数据显著 走低 。 7 月新增非农 7.3 万人，低于预期的 10.4 万人。 此外，前两月数据显著下修， 5 月和 6 月数据共下修 25.8 万人， 5 月数据下修 12.5 万人至 1.9 万人， 6 月数据下修 13.3 万人至 1.4 万人。 由于几天前公布的美国二季度 GDP 数据、 7 月"小非农" ADP 就业数据均比较高，导致预期差就更明显。 第二， 为何 非农数据波动那么大 ？ 实际上，近年非农数据的波动变得非常频繁，修正幅度有时也比较大，我们理解其背后可能"一套已经存在技术问题的统计方 法 vs 越来越复杂的现实"。一则是企业生死模型（ NBD ）的技术性失真。 NBD 模型假定企业新成立与倒闭所带来的就业净增长是相对稳定的，但近年的复杂宏 观环境打破了这一假设；二是季节调整技术的落后也是部分月份数据偏差的另一个原因， 在经济发生结构性变化时，季节性调整模型可能无法立即适应，从而使得 初始就业数据偏离实际情况， 带来 后续 大幅 修正 ；三是 BLS 调查 ...

Core Viewpoint - The White House has initiated an investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell due to alleged excessive spending on renovations, which reportedly cost over $2.5 billion, raising concerns about mismanagement [1][3]. Group 1: Investigation and Spending - The White House budget office has criticized Powell's renovation project, comparing its extravagance to the Palace of Versailles, indicating a significant mismanagement of funds [1][3]. - The Federal Reserve has defended the spending, claiming that the $2.5 billion includes various "invisible factors," but skepticism remains among the public and media regarding the justification of such a large expenditure [1][4]. Group 2: Political Pressure and Independence - President Trump has been vocal about his desire for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, threatening Powell with potential dismissal if he does not comply, despite the challenges of removing a Federal Reserve chairman due to its independent status [3][4]. - The ongoing conflict between Trump and Powell highlights the tension between political influence and the Federal Reserve's independence, which is legally protected to ensure unbiased monetary policy decisions [4][5]. Group 3: Implications for Economic Policy - The investigation into the renovation spending is seen as a strategic move by Trump to exert pressure on Powell to lower interest rates, which would help alleviate the government's debt burden and stimulate the economy [3][5]. - The outcome of this confrontation could have significant implications for U.S. economic policy and potentially affect the global economy, depending on whether Powell can withstand the pressure or if he is forced to resign [5].

Core Viewpoint - The June employment report released by the U.S. Department of Labor has significant implications for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and highlights the ongoing tension between President Trump and Fed Chairman Powell [1][3]. Employment Data Summary - The seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000 in June, surpassing market expectations of 110,000 and exceeding the previous month's growth [3]. - The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, marking the lowest level since February and below both the expected and prior month's figures [3]. Political Implications - Strong employment data suggests that the Federal Reserve may delay interest rate cuts, which is contrary to President Trump's calls for more aggressive monetary easing [3][5]. - Trump criticized Powell, labeling him as "Mr. Too Late," and pointed to the Fed's budget overruns as a reason for potential congressional investigations [3][5]. Economic Context - The report reflects a robust U.S. economy and a thriving job market, yet it poses challenges for Trump, who is concerned about the implications for his economic agenda [3][5]. - Powell's reluctance to cut rates is influenced by fears of rising inflation, which is partly attributed to Trump's tariff policies [5]. Federal Reserve Leadership Concerns - Trump's dissatisfaction with Powell has led to speculation about potential changes in Fed leadership, with reports indicating he has a shortlist of candidates for replacement [7]. - The strong employment report has increased the likelihood that interest rates will remain unchanged in July, with market predictions showing a 95.3% probability of no rate cut [8]. Broader Economic and Political Landscape - The ongoing struggle over interest rate policy illustrates the complex interplay between U.S. economic conditions and political pressures, highlighting the delicate relationship between the President and the central bank [10].

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin announced that the Trump administration will begin searching for a successor to Federal Reserve Chairman Powell this fall, adding uncertainty to U.S. economic policy [3] - Mnuchin indicated that the government has identified "many good candidates" for the position, although specific names have not been disclosed [3] - Powell has faced criticism from Trump due to policy disagreements, making his future a focal point for market attention [3] Group 2 - The current trading price of paper silver is 8.475 CNY per gram, with a slight decline of 0.04% [1] - The trading range for paper silver shows resistance levels at 8.538-8.548 CNY and support levels at 8.214-8.224 CNY [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that President Trump is considering an early nomination for the next Federal Reserve Chair to undermine the current Chair, Jerome Powell, who has 11 months left in his term [1] - Typically, the nomination for the Federal Reserve Chair occurs in the second half of the year, particularly in November and December, but Trump's potential early announcement indicates significant dissatisfaction with Powell [1] - Trump's administration has imposed tariffs, worsening inflation in the U.S., leading him to desire a rate cut from the Federal Reserve to alleviate economic and market pressures [1] Group 2 - If Trump proceeds with an early nomination, it could create a situation where the current Chair Powell and the nominee are in opposition, potentially undermining Powell's authority and the Federal Reserve's influence on both U.S. and global markets [2] - This dual leadership scenario may hinder the Federal Reserve's ability to communicate clear signals to the market, possibly exacerbating confusion in U.S. economic and macroeconomic policies, which could be detrimental to both the U.S. and global economies [2]

Group 1 - The World Economic Forum's 16th Annual Meeting of the New Champions, also known as the "Summer Davos Forum," was held in Tianjin from June 24 to June 26 [1] - A majority of economists surveyed believe that current U.S. economic policies will have a lasting impact on the global economy, with 87% predicting delays in strategic business decisions and increased recession risks [3] - Huang Yiping, Dean of the National School of Development at Peking University, emphasized the need for more proactive fiscal policies in the face of economic uncertainty [3] Group 2 - Huang Yiping highlighted the importance of distinguishing between short-term and long-term fiscal policies, advocating for constraints on government spending to avoid sustainability issues [3] - The concept of fiscal sustainability was discussed, indicating its significance for the functioning of government and the achievement of national development strategies [4] - Huang also pointed out the necessity to boost domestic demand and consumption in China, given the changing dynamics of global markets [4] Group 3 - The chief economist's briefing indicated that artificial intelligence is expected to drive growth, but 47% of respondents anticipate job losses as a result [5]

Group 1 - The core point of the article indicates that the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 139,000 in May, surpassing the expected increase of 126,000, while the previous month's figure was revised down from 177,000 to 147,000, reflecting a downward adjustment of 95,000 jobs over the past two months [1] - The unemployment rate in the U.S. for May stood at 4.2%, consistent with both the expected value and the previous value [1] - The data suggests a slowdown in employment growth in May, with previous months' figures being revised down, indicating that employers are cautious about growth prospects amid the economic policies of the Trump administration [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article indicates that the U.S. non-farm employment population decreased slightly from 185,000 to 177,000 in April, which is better than the expected decline to 130,000 [2] - The unemployment rate in the U.S. remained stable at 4.2%, showing no further deterioration [2] - The latest employment data suggests that despite a contraction of -0.3% in the U.S. economy during the first quarter, the non-farm employment figures have not shown significant decline, supporting the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on monetary policy [2] - There is speculation that the Federal Reserve may maintain its current interest rates in the upcoming May meeting, as the employment data does not warrant aggressive rate cuts [2] - President Trump has been advocating for early interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve to mitigate the negative impacts of his tariff policies on the U.S. economy [2] - If the Federal Reserve continues its cautious approach and slows down the pace of rate cuts, the U.S. economy may not show significant recovery in the second quarter and could potentially face technical recession [2] - Former Treasury Secretaries Summers and Yellen have expressed concerns that the current economic policies are self-destructive and may not achieve their intended goals [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the role of U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in managing the unpredictable economic policies of President Trump, highlighting his background in hedge funds and his previous experience with George Soros [1][3]. Group 1: Background of Scott Bessent - Scott Bessent is recognized as the most market-savvy official within Trump's inner circle, having worked under George Soros and participated in the significant "shorting the pound" event in 1992, which was based on economic fundamentals [3]. - Bessent has acted as a "firefighter" during negative impacts of Trump's economic policies, intervening to calm the markets by facilitating the suspension of reciprocal tariffs and protecting the independence of the Federal Reserve [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Concerns - The market is closely monitoring Bessent's actions, as his relationship with Trump is crucial; any potential removal from the inner circle could lead to increased caution among global investors [5]. - While there is hope that Bessent can stabilize Trump's erratic behavior, pessimists argue that his influence may be limited and unable to address long-standing structural risks in the U.S. economy, such as fiscal deficits and debt burdens [5].