Group 1: Trump's Policy Logic - The logic behind Trump's policy is structured, focusing on increasing government revenue through tariffs, promoting manufacturing return, and adjusting tariffs based on industry rather than country [2][3] - The "Big and Beautiful" plan aims to reduce taxes and spending while raising the debt ceiling, with projected federal revenue loss of approximately $4 trillion over the next decade [3] - Deregulation is intended to stimulate the economy by removing banking regulations related to cryptocurrency and expediting government approval processes [3] Group 2: Market and Election Pressures - Market pressure plays a significant role in Trump's policy adjustments, particularly in response to movements in the U.S. Treasury market, with a tendency to ease policies when 10-year Treasury yields rise significantly [4][5] - Election pressures are also a factor, as economic downturns and inflation from tariff wars could negatively impact Trump's voter base, necessitating a softening of tariff policies [6] Group 3: U.S. Treasury Market Dynamics - High U.S. Treasury yields are unlikely to be sustained due to the Federal Reserve's current stance and the need for policy space amid economic uncertainties [8][9] - The long-term outlook suggests that U.S. Treasury yields may exceed nominal economic growth rates, which could suppress economic growth [9][10] - A new framework for long-term Treasury pricing is proposed, incorporating a sovereign risk premium to account for market concerns about U.S. debt [20][22] Group 4: Broader Economic Considerations - The U.S. is seeking new support for the dollar through high-tech exports and controlling supply chains, which may mitigate inflation domestically [23][24] - The U.S. Treasury's debt ceiling situation is critical, with current measures to manage liquidity potentially leading to a "fiscal window" before a new debt agreement is reached [25][26]

Core Viewpoint - Moody's downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating from "Aaa" to "Aa1" reflects concerns over the growing debt burden and interest payment ratio, leading to a decline in investor confidence in U.S. Treasuries [1][3][4] Group 1: Credit Rating Downgrade - Moody's decision to downgrade the U.S. credit rating follows similar actions by Fitch and Standard & Poor's, resulting in the loss of the AAA rating from all three major credit agencies [1][3] - The downgrade has led to a significant increase in U.S. Treasury yields, with the 30-year Treasury yield surpassing 5% and the 10-year yield rising to 4.521% [1][3] Group 2: Long-term Fiscal Concerns - Analysts emphasize that the long-term sustainability of U.S. fiscal policy will impact Treasury pricing and investment value, with a focus on the increasing budget deficit and debt levels [2][4] - Moody's projects that by 2035, U.S. federal debt could reach 134% of GDP, with the deficit potentially rising to 9% of GDP, indicating a concerning fiscal trajectory [3][4] Group 3: Market Reactions and Investor Behavior - The market has shown a negative feedback loop characterized by falling prices, selling pressure, and increased risk aversion among domestic and international investors [1][4] - Some investors, particularly from overseas, are diversifying their portfolios away from U.S. Treasuries, as evidenced by China's reduction of its Treasury holdings by $18.9 billion [7][8] Group 4: Future Outlook - The U.S. Treasury market is at a critical juncture, with potential for increased volatility due to rising inflation risks and uncertain fiscal policies [8][9] - Investment strategies are shifting towards safer assets, with expectations that U.S. Treasuries may outperform riskier assets in the near term [8][9]