Core Viewpoint - The U.S. may face a scenario of simultaneous financial crisis and inflation in the coming years, with significant risks already evident [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Risks - The global economy has entered a phase of high volatility, with risks expected to escalate in 2026, particularly due to accumulating financial instability factors [3]. - The dominance of the U.S. dollar is under threat, with high public debt, large fiscal deficits, and elevated interest rates in developed countries contributing to financial system instability [4]. - A consensus that the dollar is no longer safe could lead to a mass withdrawal from dollar assets, significantly increasing the prices of safe-haven assets like gold [4]. Group 2: Impact of AI - Artificial intelligence is causing profound technological changes, particularly impacting knowledge workers, which may lead to significant social and political consequences [4]. Group 3: Inflation Concerns - The combination of fiscal and labor market policies in the U.S., especially measures limiting immigration, could create a highly expansionary macroeconomic environment, significantly raising inflation [5]. - Current U.S. policies resemble those of the late 1960s and early 1970s, which led to prolonged instability in the global economy and financial system [5]. Group 4: Uncertainty of Crisis Timing - The exact timing of a potential U.S. financial crisis is difficult to predict, with possibilities ranging from two to three years or longer [6]. - There are no signs of a reversal in the current political landscape, with a lack of tightening in fiscal or monetary policies and insufficient efforts to restore international confidence [6].

Core Viewpoint - The global monetary system is undergoing significant changes, with discussions on whether a single sovereign currency or a few strong currencies should dominate. The positions of the US dollar, euro, and renminbi in the global monetary system are being reevaluated [2][3]. Group 1: Perspectives from Central Bank Leaders - European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde emphasizes the opportunity for the euro to increase its global standing amid declining confidence in the dollar due to US policies [2][3]. - Lagarde notes that the euro currently holds a 20% share in global foreign exchange reserves, while the dollar accounts for 58%, suggesting that enhancing the euro's status could lead to lower borrowing costs and reduced exchange rate risks [3][6]. - People's Bank of China Governor Pan Gongsheng advocates for reducing reliance on a single sovereign currency, promoting healthy competition among a few strong currencies to enhance the resilience of the international monetary system [2][5]. Group 2: Current Trends and Market Reactions - The dollar's dominance is being challenged, with a 9.14% decline in the dollar index this year, while the euro has risen by 11.21%, the yen by 7.81%, and the renminbi by 1.56% [3]. - Gold has seen a significant increase of 27.4%, indicating a shift in market confidence away from the current monetary system [3][4]. - Lagarde points out that the rising demand for gold reflects a lack of confidence in existing currencies, presenting a unique opportunity for the euro [4]. Group 3: Characteristics of the Evolving Monetary System - The international monetary system is evolving towards a multipolar structure, which may enhance policy constraints on sovereign currency countries and improve global financial stability [5][7]. - The euro, established in 1999, has become the second-largest currency in global foreign exchange reserves, while the renminbi has steadily increased its international standing, becoming the second-largest trade financing currency [5][6]. - Lagarde highlights that the EU's strong fiscal position, with a debt-to-GDP ratio of 89% compared to the US's 124%, could bolster confidence in the euro, although the supply of high-quality safe assets remains limited [6][7].