Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have been on a significant upward trend since late August, with COMEX gold prices reaching historical highs, indicating a new phase for gold investment [1][4]. Group 1: Gold Price Trends - As of September 12, spot gold reached a record high of $3,674 per ounce, surpassing the inflation-adjusted peak of $850 per ounce from January 1980 [1]. - Gold prices have increased approximately 5% in September and nearly 40% year-to-date [1]. - The market has shown a wave-like upward trend in gold prices throughout 2025, with significant increases influenced by international events and tariffs [1]. Group 2: Economic Influences - The opportunity cost of holding gold is influenced by the performance of interest-bearing assets, which is affected by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cycles [4]. - Historical data suggests that gold performs better during periods of rising unemployment and economic downturns, highlighting its value as a safe-haven asset [4]. - Expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, reflecting economic pressures, are likely to support gold prices [4]. Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - Global geopolitical tensions, such as the recent Israeli airstrike in Qatar, have heightened the appeal of gold as a stable investment [5]. - Gold's value remains stable during geopolitical turmoil, making it a preferred choice for investors seeking refuge during uncertain times [5]. Group 4: Long-term Value and Central Bank Actions - The long-term value of gold is supported by the declining trust in the dollar credit system, a trend reinforced by recent political events affecting the Federal Reserve's independence [6]. - Central banks are increasingly diversifying their reserves, with gold becoming the second-largest reserve asset globally, surpassing the euro [6]. - China's central bank has increased its gold reserves for ten consecutive months, with gold now accounting for 7.64% of its foreign exchange reserves, a historical high [6]. Group 5: Investment Opportunities - The demand for gold investment is expected to continue increasing due to various supporting factors, although caution is advised given the current high prices [6]. - The Guotai Gold ETF has seen significant growth, with a scale of 18.3 billion yuan and an increase of over 10 billion yuan this year, indicating active trading [6].

Group 1 - The long-term value support for gold remains due to the continuous decline of the "U.S. dollar credit system," which has been reinforced by recent events [3] - The recent dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook by Trump marks the first time in 112 years that a governor has been removed, raising concerns about the political norms and constitutional order [3] - Trump's team has drafted a secret plan to enhance White House intervention in the Federal Reserve, potentially undermining the Fed's policy independence [4] Group 2 - The resignation of Cook provides Trump with the opportunity to nominate a third Federal Reserve governor, which could lead to a majority that aligns with his stance, fundamentally affecting future monetary policy [4] - Gold pricing reflects the opportunity cost of interest-bearing assets, with its performance being influenced by the Fed's interest rate cycle and the global economic cycle [4] - In periods of recession or stagflation, gold tends to perform better as a safe-haven asset compared to cash, highlighting its value during economic downturns [4] Group 3 - Recently, gold has broken through previous resistance levels, indicating market confidence in its value [6] - Investors are encouraged to pay attention to gold ETFs as a potential investment opportunity [6]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced an overall decline today, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.16% to 3813.56 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.65%. The ChiNext Index rose by 0.95%, while the Sci-Tech Innovation Index fell by 1.06% [1] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was approximately 23640.86 billion yuan, a decrease of about 5109.05 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - In terms of sector performance, photovoltaic and communication sectors led the gains, while military, securities, and chip sectors faced significant declines [1] Investment Strategy - The company maintains a bullish outlook on gold, citing strong support for gold prices due to threats to the independence of the Federal Reserve and expectations of a rate cut in the U.S. in September. Investors are encouraged to pay attention to gold ETFs (518800) [1][2] - The A-share market may face short-term adjustments, primarily due to profit-taking pressures in previously high-performing sectors like technology and military. The recommendation is to switch to lower volatility cyclical and dividend stocks [1] - The bond market showed stability today, with the Shanghai 10-year government bond index slightly up by 0.02%. The company holds a view of "top-down, bottom-up" fluctuations in the bond market, suggesting investors look for low-positioning opportunities [1] Gold Market Insights - The long-term value of gold is supported by the ongoing decline of the dollar credit system, reinforced by recent events involving the Federal Reserve [4] - The dismissal of a Federal Reserve governor by Trump without judicial process poses a challenge to the political norms and the independence of the Federal Reserve [4][5] - The potential appointment of like-minded individuals to the Federal Reserve Board could significantly influence future monetary policy, further challenging the Fed's independence [5] Photovoltaic Industry Analysis - The photovoltaic sector is showing signs of recovery, with the Photovoltaic 50 ETF (159864) rising by 2.26%. The industry is benefiting from policies aimed at reducing internal competition and improving price stability [7] - The core companies in the photovoltaic sector reported a year-on-year revenue decline of 9.7% in the first half of 2025, but there was a sequential improvement in operating rates and revenue in the second quarter [9] - The industry is expected to undergo consolidation through mergers and acquisitions to manage excess capacity and debt, with a focus on price recovery [11]