8月下旬以来，金价走势节节攀升，COMEX黄金价格屡屡创出新高。 9月12日，现货黄金触及3674美元/盎司历史新高，并首次突破1980年1月创下的850美元/盎司峰值（按 通胀调整约为3590美元），标志着金价迈入前所未有的新阶段。本月以来金价累计上涨约5%，今年以 来涨幅已接近40%。 而随着金价的上涨，黄金投资也再度回到"聚光灯"下。 复盘2025年的金价走势，市场呈现波浪式上涨的趋势。 4月底之前，在国际局势和关税等因素的影响下，金价一路"狂飙"，后续迎来为期数月的平台调整期。8 月起继续上攻，市场热度再起。 COMEX黄金 数据来源：wind，时间起讫2024/1/1-2025/9/12。历史业绩仅供参考，不预示未来表现。 黄金定价了以美元为代表的生息资产的机会成本。概括来看，生息资产的主要表现受到美联储降息周期 的影响，而降息周期背后又是全球的经济周期。 从历史数据来看，美国失业率上行的衰退/滞涨时期，黄金相对来说有更好的表现。在衰退期，社会的 整体回报率不足，那么黄金与现金作为避险资产的价值凸显；而在滞涨时期，实物黄金将会进一步优于 货币，从而具备更强的吸引力。 美联储降息预期本身，也已经反映了 ...

Group 1 - COMEX gold futures have reached a historical high, peaking at $3640.1 per ounce, with some overseas institutions predicting prices could rise to $4000 per ounce, indicating a new upward cycle for gold prices [1] - Year-to-date, international gold prices have increased by 36%, leading to significant gains in gold ETFs, with an average net asset growth rate of approximately 42% across 20 gold ETFs [2] - The total scale of 20 gold ETFs has surged to 160.3 billion yuan, with an increase of 87.7 billion yuan this year, reflecting strong investor interest [2][3] Group 2 - Seven gold ETFs targeting SGE gold have seen their scale increase by 72.6 billion yuan this year, while other gold ETFs linked to Shanghai gold and gold stocks have also experienced notable growth [3] - The net inflow into the 20 gold ETFs this year totals 59.2 billion yuan, with the Huaan Gold ETF attracting the most significant inflow of 20.5 billion yuan, doubling its scale from 28.6 billion yuan at the beginning of the year [3][4] - Major public funds are the primary buyers of gold ETFs, with high self-purchase ratios reported for Huaan Gold ETF and Bosera Gold ETF, indicating strong institutional support [4] Group 3 - Despite a 36% increase in gold prices this year, Wall Street remains bullish, with Citigroup raising its three-month gold price forecast from $3300 to $3500 per ounce [5][6] - Goldman Sachs maintains a target price of $3700 per ounce for gold by the end of 2025, driven by central bank purchases, recession risks, and concerns over the dollar's credibility [6] - UBS has reiterated its forecast of gold reaching $3700 per ounce by June 2026, suggesting a potential rise to $4000 per ounce in the event of geopolitical or economic deterioration [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent surge in gold prices, with COMEX gold futures reaching a historical high of $3640.1 per ounce, and forecasts predicting potential increases to $4000 per ounce, indicating a new upward cycle for gold prices [2][9]. Group 1: Gold Price Performance - Year-to-date, international gold prices have increased by 36%, leading to significant gains in gold ETFs, with an average net asset growth rate of approximately 42% across 20 gold ETFs [3][4]. - Among the gold ETFs, those tracking domestic spot gold prices have shown an average return of 31% over the past year, while ETFs linked to gold stocks have performed even better, with an average net asset growth rate of 66% [3]. Group 2: Fund Inflows and ETF Growth - The total scale of 20 gold ETFs has reached 160.3 billion yuan, with an increase of 87.7 billion yuan this year, indicating a doubling in scale [4][6]. - Specifically, seven gold ETFs targeting SGE gold have seen an increase of 72.6 billion yuan, while those linked to Shanghai gold and gold stocks have grown by approximately 8.8 billion yuan and 6.3 billion yuan, respectively [6]. Group 3: Investor Behavior and Market Sentiment - The influx of funds into gold ETFs is attributed to a combination of heightened risk aversion and market reactions to global economic uncertainties, with significant purchases made by public funds [8][9]. - Major gold ETFs such as Huazhang Gold ETF and Boshi Gold ETF have seen substantial inflows, with net inflows of 20.5 billion yuan and 8.1 billion yuan respectively this year [6][8]. Group 4: Future Price Predictions - Analysts remain bullish on gold prices, with Citibank raising its three-month price forecast from $3300 to $3500 per ounce, while Goldman Sachs maintains a target of $3700 per ounce by the end of 2025 [11][13]. - UBS has reiterated its prediction of gold prices reaching $3700 per ounce by June 2026, with a possibility of hitting $4000 per ounce under adverse geopolitical or economic conditions [13].

9月3日，COMEX黄金期货价格站上3600美元/盎司历史关口，再创历史新高。8月底以来，金价已连续 六个交易日上涨，年初至今，已累计上涨超36%，成为大类资产中表现最亮眼的品种之一。 金价大涨的背后，主要受美联储降息预期以及地缘政治不确定性推动。市场除押注美联储9月降息之 外，更预期美联储的独立性在川普政府近期的一系列干涉下受到动摇，这将构成对金价的中长期支撑。 但需警惕市场提前交易降息预期，"靴子落地"后可能带来的反转。 此外，基于外汇储备多元化、去美元化的考量，今年以来多个国家持续增持黄金。截至2025年7月，中 国央行连续9个月增持黄金。根据Crescat Capital数据，外国央行的黄金持有量自1996年以来首次超过美 国国债。 多家国际金融机构也在看涨金价。瑞银重申2026年6月金价目标价上调至3700美元/盎司的预测，摩根士 丹利则在最新研报中将黄金年底目标价设定为3800美元/盎司。（观点仅供参考，不构成投资建议和承 诺） 展望未来金价走势，我们认为黄金的避险属性和货币属性分别支撑其短期和中长期走势。但考虑到当前 金价处于历史高位，追高风险较大，或可在适合的价格回调时逢低分批布局。投资黄金， ...