2025 年 10 月 09 日 证券研究报告 | 策略周报 长假期间国内外大事速递 策略周报 分析师：郝一凡 分析师登记编码：S0890524080002 电话：021-20321080 邮箱：haoyifan@cnhbstock.com 分析师：刘芳 分析师登记编码：S0890524100002 电话：021-20321091 邮箱：liufang@cnhbstock.com 销售服务电话： 021-20515355 相关研究报告 1、《节前波动有所放大，持股还是持币 过节？ —策略周报》2025-09-29 2、《长假临近，震荡分化延续 —策略周 报》2025-09-21 3、《颠簸初现，成长风格人气仍高 —策 略周报》2025-09-07 4、《A 股 8 月强势收官，9 月有哪些变 数？ —策略周报》2025-08-31 5、《沪指强势反弹，周期成长轮动 —策 略周报》2025-08-10 投资要点 美国政府"停摆"。 日本自民党选出首位女总裁，即将成为日本历史上第一位女首相。 中东地缘风险降温。 黄金再创新高，中国央行连续第 11 个月增持黄金。 国庆中秋假期超 24 亿人次跨区域流动，创历史同期 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have been on a significant upward trend since late August, with COMEX gold prices reaching historical highs, indicating a new phase for gold investment [1][4]. Group 1: Gold Price Trends - As of September 12, spot gold reached a record high of $3,674 per ounce, surpassing the inflation-adjusted peak of $850 per ounce from January 1980 [1]. - Gold prices have increased approximately 5% in September and nearly 40% year-to-date [1]. - The market has shown a wave-like upward trend in gold prices throughout 2025, with significant increases influenced by international events and tariffs [1]. Group 2: Economic Influences - The opportunity cost of holding gold is influenced by the performance of interest-bearing assets, which is affected by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cycles [4]. - Historical data suggests that gold performs better during periods of rising unemployment and economic downturns, highlighting its value as a safe-haven asset [4]. - Expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, reflecting economic pressures, are likely to support gold prices [4]. Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - Global geopolitical tensions, such as the recent Israeli airstrike in Qatar, have heightened the appeal of gold as a stable investment [5]. - Gold's value remains stable during geopolitical turmoil, making it a preferred choice for investors seeking refuge during uncertain times [5]. Group 4: Long-term Value and Central Bank Actions - The long-term value of gold is supported by the declining trust in the dollar credit system, a trend reinforced by recent political events affecting the Federal Reserve's independence [6]. - Central banks are increasingly diversifying their reserves, with gold becoming the second-largest reserve asset globally, surpassing the euro [6]. - China's central bank has increased its gold reserves for ten consecutive months, with gold now accounting for 7.64% of its foreign exchange reserves, a historical high [6]. Group 5: Investment Opportunities - The demand for gold investment is expected to continue increasing due to various supporting factors, although caution is advised given the current high prices [6]. - The Guotai Gold ETF has seen significant growth, with a scale of 18.3 billion yuan and an increase of over 10 billion yuan this year, indicating active trading [6].

Industrial Sector - China's industrial production remains stable, with a recovery in steel and construction material output, showing a week-on-week increase of 3.7%[1] - Daily average pig iron output is higher than the same period last year, indicating a positive trend in steel production[3] - Cement clinker capacity utilization rate has improved, reflecting a rebound in the cement industry[5] Real Estate - New home sales in 30 major cities decreased by 15.9% year-on-year as of August 8, but the decline rate improved by 2.2 percentage points compared to the previous week[1] - The second-hand housing listing price index fell by 0.27% week-on-week as of July 28, indicating a slight downward trend in property prices[20] Domestic Demand - Movie box office revenue continues to perform strongly, with a daily average of CNY 24.143 million, a year-on-year increase of 98.7%[1] - Retail sales of major home appliances grew by 10.5% year-on-year as of August 1, showing robust consumer demand[25] - The number of domestic flights increased by 8.8% year-on-year, reflecting a recovery in travel activity[26] External Demand - Port cargo throughput increased by 6.8% year-on-year as of August 3, indicating a positive trend in external trade[30] - The global manufacturing PMI index was at 49.7% in July, down 0.7 percentage points from June, suggesting a slight contraction in manufacturing activity[1] Price Trends - Black raw material futures prices rebounded, with coking coal futures up by 12.3% and rebar futures up by 0.3%[1] - The South China industrial product index fell by 1.0%, while the black raw material index rose by 2.7%[1]

盘面回顾：指数窄幅震荡，个股和板块表现分化。周二全天指数窄幅震荡，临近尾盘沪指收红，但 大部分中小市值宽基指数仍以绿盘报收。交易金额为1.07 万亿，较周一萎缩。周二 31 个一级行业表现 分化，领涨板块是美容护理、银行、家用电器、纺织服饰、传媒等。领跌板块是国防军工、商贸零售、 电子、钢铁、社会服务等。 风险提示：关税冲击的后续影响，美联储降息延后，海外经济衰退超预期，国内经济复苏不及预 期，政策执行不及预期等。 周二指数窄幅波动，市场观望情绪加大。周二 A 股全天窄幅波动，波幅仅 22 个指数点，显示在经 历了连续 5 个交易日的上涨后，市场观望情绪开始加大，追涨意愿下降。从中期角度来看，在中央汇金 等三家国资开始增持，叠加多家上市公司宣布回购增持后，市场已经迎来拐点。尽管"对等关税"的后续 影响还存在一定不确定性，但市场交易开始克服恐慌心理，指数在波折中继续修复行情。 后市展望：关税事件的冲击最高峰已经过去，A 股将在波折中继续修复。4 月 7 日的极端下跌是对 近期所谓"对等关税"事件的一次性反映，随着市场情绪逐渐平稳和以中央汇金为代表的国资以及多家上 市公司宣布回购增持后，目前 A 股已经进入修复性 ...