海外经济衰退

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中国宏观周报(2025年8月第1周):天气因素扰动线下活动-20250811
Ping An Securities· 2025-08-11 02:40
Industrial Sector - China's industrial production remains stable, with a recovery in steel and construction material output, showing a week-on-week increase of 3.7%[1] - Daily average pig iron output is higher than the same period last year, indicating a positive trend in steel production[3] - Cement clinker capacity utilization rate has improved, reflecting a rebound in the cement industry[5] Real Estate - New home sales in 30 major cities decreased by 15.9% year-on-year as of August 8, but the decline rate improved by 2.2 percentage points compared to the previous week[1] - The second-hand housing listing price index fell by 0.27% week-on-week as of July 28, indicating a slight downward trend in property prices[20] Domestic Demand - Movie box office revenue continues to perform strongly, with a daily average of CNY 24.143 million, a year-on-year increase of 98.7%[1] - Retail sales of major home appliances grew by 10.5% year-on-year as of August 1, showing robust consumer demand[25] - The number of domestic flights increased by 8.8% year-on-year, reflecting a recovery in travel activity[26] External Demand - Port cargo throughput increased by 6.8% year-on-year as of August 3, indicating a positive trend in external trade[30] - The global manufacturing PMI index was at 49.7% in July, down 0.7 percentage points from June, suggesting a slight contraction in manufacturing activity[1] Price Trends - Black raw material futures prices rebounded, with coking coal futures up by 12.3% and rebar futures up by 0.3%[1] - The South China industrial product index fell by 1.0%, while the black raw material index rose by 2.7%[1]
早盘直击 | 今日行情关注
申万宏源证券上海北京西路营业部· 2025-04-16 02:13
盘面回顾:指数窄幅震荡,个股和板块表现分化。周二全天指数窄幅震荡,临近尾盘沪指收红,但 大部分中小市值宽基指数仍以绿盘报收。交易金额为1.07 万亿,较周一萎缩。周二 31 个一级行业表现 分化,领涨板块是美容护理、银行、家用电器、纺织服饰、传媒等。领跌板块是国防军工、商贸零售、 电子、钢铁、社会服务等。 风险提示:关税冲击的后续影响,美联储降息延后,海外经济衰退超预期,国内经济复苏不及预 期,政策执行不及预期等。 周二指数窄幅波动,市场观望情绪加大。周二 A 股全天窄幅波动,波幅仅 22 个指数点,显示在经 历了连续 5 个交易日的上涨后,市场观望情绪开始加大,追涨意愿下降。从中期角度来看,在中央汇金 等三家国资开始增持,叠加多家上市公司宣布回购增持后,市场已经迎来拐点。尽管"对等关税"的后续 影响还存在一定不确定性,但市场交易开始克服恐慌心理,指数在波折中继续修复行情。 后市展望:关税事件的冲击最高峰已经过去,A 股将在波折中继续修复。4 月 7 日的极端下跌是对 近期所谓"对等关税"事件的一次性反映,随着市场情绪逐渐平稳和以中央汇金为代表的国资以及多家上 市公司宣布回购增持后,目前 A 股已经进入修复性 ...