Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the impact of President Trump's interference with the Federal Reserve, which has led to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, pushing gold prices close to $3,400 [5][9][17] - On Tuesday, the international spot gold price opened at $3,365.98, reaching a high of $3,393.51 and closing at $3,393.25, marking an increase of $27.30 or 0.81% [5] - The U.S. dollar index opened at 98.43 points and closed at 98.21 points, down 0.22%, indicating a weakening dollar which typically supports gold prices [3][5] Group 2 - The increase in gold prices is attributed to two main factors: Trump's actions against the Federal Reserve, which have shaken dollar confidence, and economic data indicating recession fears in the U.S. [5][9] - The consumer confidence index in the U.S. fell by 1.3 points to 97.4, with the expectations index dropping to 74.8, below the recession threshold of 80, reflecting concerns about the economic outlook [9][11] - The article notes that the U.S. housing market is cooling, with the S&P Case-Shiller home price index showing a year-on-year increase of only 1.86% as of June, indicating a potential downturn in the real estate sector [11][15] Group 3 - Trump's recent comments about appointing his nominees to the Federal Reserve could lead to significant changes in monetary policy, potentially resulting in higher long-term interest rates and impacting financial markets negatively [8][9] - The article suggests that if the current trends continue, the credibility of the dollar could be severely impacted, further strengthening the demand for gold and silver as safe-haven assets [9][17] - The overall commodity market may benefit from potential inflationary pressures if the U.S. economy continues to show signs of distress [9][17]

Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Views - For stock indices, the market risk appetite has gradually recovered. It is recommended to go long on IH or IF index futures related to the economy on dips, and also consider going long on IC or IM futures related to "new - quality productivity" opportunistically [2][4]. - For bonds, the short - term bond market will be mainly volatile, and in the long - term, the interest rate is expected to decline. It is advisable to enter the market on dips [7]. - For precious metals, the prices of gold and silver are expected to be supported. It is recommended to maintain a long - term bullish view, and silver will be more resilient [8][9]. - For non - ferrous metals, different metals have different trends. For example, copper is expected to oscillate at a high level, aluminum is expected to oscillate weakly, etc. [11][12]. - For black building materials, the steel market is in a traditional off - season with weakening demand. Iron ore is expected to be volatile in the short term [21][22]. - For energy chemicals, rubber can be traded with a short - term long or neutral strategy; for crude oil, short - term observation is recommended; methanol may decline further, etc. [35][39][41]. - For agricultural products, the prices of pigs and eggs are expected to be weak in the short term; for beans and meal, it is recommended to trade based on cost intervals; for oils and fats, an oscillating trend is expected [52][53][55]. Summary by Category Stock Indices - Market performance: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.04%, while the ChiNext Index fell 0.45%, etc. The total trading volume of the two markets was 1.152 trillion yuan, a decrease of 138.4 billion yuan from the previous day [2]. - Macro news: The central bank conducted a 1 - trillion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation; Chinese vice - premier will visit the UK for Sino - US economic and trade consultations; the US non - farm payrolls in May were 1.39 million, and the unemployment rate was 4.2% [2]. - Capital and valuation: The margin trading balance increased by 4.599 billion yuan. The P/E ratios of major indices were provided. It is recommended to go long on related index futures on dips, and the one - sided strategy is to buy IF index long contracts on dips [3][4]. Bonds - Market performance: On Friday, the main contracts of various bonds rose to different extents [5]. - News: The central bank conducted a 1 - trillion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation; the US non - farm payrolls in March and April were revised downwards [6][7]. - Strategy: The short - term bond market will be volatile, and in the long - term, the interest rate is expected to decline. It is advisable to enter the market on dips [7]. Precious Metals - Market performance: Shanghai gold fell 1.09%, and Shanghai silver rose 0.62%. COMEX gold fell 0.29%, and COMEX silver rose 0.14% [8]. - Market outlook: The weakening US economic data and the Los Angeles immigration conflict will support the prices of gold and silver. It is recommended to maintain a long - term bullish view, and silver will be more resilient [8][9]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - Market performance: LME copper rose 1.83% to $9,670/ton last week, and SHFE copper closed at 78,620 yuan/ton [11]. - Industry situation: The inventory of the three major exchanges decreased by 0.9 million tons. The copper price is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term, with the SHFE copper main contract running in the range of 77,200 - 79,200 yuan/ton [11]. Aluminum - Market performance: SHFE aluminum closed flat, and LME aluminum rose 0.12% to $2,451/ton [12]. - Industry situation: The domestic aluminum ingot inventory continued to decline. The aluminum price is expected to oscillate weakly, with the domestic main contract running in the range of 19,800 - 20,200 yuan/ton [12]. Zinc - Market performance: As of Friday, the SHFE zinc index rose 0.14% to 22,289 yuan/ton [13]. - Industry situation: The zinc price may rebound slightly, but there is a large downward risk in the long term due to the oversupply of zinc ore and weak terminal consumption [13]. Lead - Market performance: As of Friday, the SHFE lead index rose 0.49% to 16,775 yuan/ton [14]. - Industry situation: The lead price is expected to remain weak due to weak downstream consumption and high reclaimed lead inventory [14]. Nickel - Market performance: Nickel prices oscillated last week [15]. - Industry situation: The short - term fundamentals of nickel have improved slightly, but it is still bearish in the long term. It is advisable to short on rebounds, with the SHFE nickel main contract running in the range of 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton [15]. Tin - Market performance: Tin prices rebounded last week [16]. - Industry situation: Due to the reduction in Myanmar's tin ore supply and the release of downstream replenishment demand, the tin price is expected to oscillate, with the domestic main contract running in the range of 230,000 - 260,000 yuan/ton [16]. Carbonate Lithium - Market performance: The MMLC carbonate lithium spot index was flat on Friday, and the LC2507 contract rose 0.57% [17]. - Industry situation: The lithium salt production is at a high level, and the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom. The reference range for the main contract of Guangzhou Futures Exchange is 59,520 - 61,540 yuan/ton [17]. Alumina - Market performance: On June 6, the alumina index fell 1.36% to 2,899 yuan/ton [18]. - Industry situation: The alumina market has an over - capacity pattern. It is recommended to short on rallies, with the domestic main contract AO2509 running in the range of 2,800 - 3,200 yuan/ton [18]. Stainless Steel - Market performance: On Friday, the stainless steel main contract closed at 12,680 yuan/ton, down 0.08% [19]. - Industry situation: The stainless steel market will continue to be under pressure due to high inventory, weak demand, and weakening cost support [19]. Black Building Materials Steel - Market performance: The rebar main contract rose 0.54% to 2,975 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil main contract rose 0.487% to 3,092 yuan/ton [21]. - Industry situation: The steel market is in a traditional off - season with weakening demand. It is necessary to focus on tariff policies, terminal demand, and cost support [21]. Iron Ore - Market performance: The iron ore main contract (I2509) rose 0.93% to 707.50 yuan/ton [22]. - Industry situation: The supply and demand of iron ore have weakened marginally, and the price is expected to be volatile in the short term [22]. Glass and Soda Ash - Market performance: The price of glass in Shahe rose 10 yuan, and the spot price of soda ash was 1,250 yuan [23][24]. - Industry situation: Glass is expected to be weak in the medium term; soda ash has improved marginally in supply and demand but is still under pressure in the medium term [23][24]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Market performance: The manganese silicon main contract rose 1.02%, and the ferrosilicon main contract rose 0.04% [25]. - Industry situation: Both are in a downward trend. It is not recommended to bottom - fish prematurely due to over - capacity and weak demand [25][27]. Industrial Silicon - Market performance: On June 6, the industrial silicon futures main contract rose 2.17% to 7,290 yuan/ton [30]. - Industry situation: The industrial silicon market has over - capacity. It is recommended to wait and see and not to bottom - fish prematurely [30][31]. Energy Chemicals Rubber - Market performance: NR and RU oscillated [34]. - Industry situation: Bulls expect price increases due to production cuts, while bears are concerned about weak demand. It is recommended to trade with a short - term long or neutral strategy [35][38]. Crude Oil - Market performance: As of Friday, WTI crude oil rose 2.40% to $64.77, and Brent crude oil rose 2.08% to $66.65 [39]. - Industry situation: The oil price may be under pressure due to the Iran - US negotiation, but short - term observation is recommended [39][40]. Methanol - Market performance: On June 6, the 09 contract rose 5 yuan/ton to 2,264 yuan/ton [41]. - Industry situation: The supply is expected to remain high, and the price may decline further. It is recommended to short on rallies [41]. Urea - Market performance: On June 6, the 09 contract fell 2 yuan/ton to 1,720 yuan/ton [42]. - Industry situation: The supply is high, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [42]. PVC - Market performance: The PVC09 contract rose 43 yuan to 4,790 yuan [43]. - Industry situation: The supply is strong, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [43]. Ethylene Glycol - Market performance: The EG09 contract fell 22 yuan to 4,261 yuan [44]. - Industry situation: The market is in a de - stocking stage, but the inventory de - stocking may slow down. There is a risk of valuation correction [45]. PTA - Market performance: The PTA09 contract rose 8 yuan to 4,652 yuan [46]. - Industry situation: The supply is in the maintenance season, and the demand is stable. PTA will continue to de - stock, and the processing fee is supported [46]. p - Xylene - Market performance: The PX09 contract rose 16 yuan to 6,556 yuan [47]. - Industry situation: The maintenance season is ending, and the de - stocking will slow down in June but resume in the third quarter [47]. Polyethylene (PE) - Market performance: The main contract rose 32 yuan to 7,066 yuan/ton [49]. - Industry situation: The supply pressure may ease, and the price is expected to oscillate [48][49]. Polypropylene (PP) - Market performance: The main contract rose 14 yuan to 6,925 yuan/ton [50]. - Industry situation: The supply will increase in June, and the price is expected to be bearish [50]. Agricultural Products Pigs - Market performance: Pig prices mainly fell over the weekend [52]. - Industry situation: The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. The short - term price is expected to be weak [52]. Eggs - Market performance: Egg prices were mainly stable over the weekend [53]. - Industry situation: The supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to be stable and weak [53]. Beans and Meal - Market performance: US soybeans rose slightly on Friday, and domestic soybean meal was stable or slightly rose over the weekend [54]. - Industry situation: The supply of domestic soybean meal is increasing, but the cost of US soybeans is likely to rise. It is recommended to trade based on cost intervals [54][55]. Oils and Fats - Market performance: The high - frequency data of Malaysian palm oil showed an increase in production and exports in May [56]. - Industry situation: The price of oils and fats is expected to oscillate due to both positive and negative factors [57][59]. Sugar - Market performance: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price oscillated strongly on Friday [60]. - Industry situation: The international sugar supply may increase, and the domestic sugar price may weaken [60][61]. Cotton - Market performance: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price rebounded on Friday [62]. - Industry situation: The downstream operating rate decreased slightly, and the inventory continued to decline. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [62].