Core Viewpoint - The US dollar index is under pressure due to market expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with an 80% probability of a cut in December [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The US dollar index is currently trading around 98.737, with a slight decline of 0.01% from the previous close of 98.735 [1] - The yield curve has slightly declined, with the 10-year Treasury yield hovering just below 4% at 3.976% [1] - The bond market has fully priced in a 25 basis point rate cut, bringing the federal funds rate range to 3.75%-4.00% [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Expectations - Market participants are anticipating a high likelihood (80%) of another rate cut in December, which is contributing to the pressure on the dollar [1] - The economic data is scarce due to government shutdown, making market assumptions crucial, with Jerome Powell's tone being particularly significant [1] Group 3: Technical Analysis - From a technical perspective, as long as the dollar index remains above the 50-day moving average, the trend is still intact [2] - The market will continue to exhibit a weak upward trend unless bulls can break through 99.139 and reclaim 99.563 [2] - Without new hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve, the current situation is unlikely to change [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the U.S. labor market remains strong, providing a basis for the Federal Reserve to maintain a restrictive monetary policy, despite potential inflationary pressures from tariffs [3][4] - The April non-farm payroll report showed an increase of 177,000 jobs, exceeding the market expectation of 150,000, while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.2% for the third consecutive month [3] - The market's expectation for the first rate cut by the Federal Reserve has been pushed from June to July, with a 62% probability of a 25 basis point cut in July, reflecting caution regarding tariff policy uncertainties [4] Group 2 - Technical analysis of the U.S. dollar index shows a typical oscillation pattern, with MACD indicators indicating weak short-term momentum, while RSI and CCI suggest that the market is not yet in an oversold condition [3] - The dollar index is currently trading between the middle and lower bands of the Bollinger Bands, indicating a need to break through the middle band to confirm a directional trend [3][5] - Investors should focus on three key variables: the final implementation of the Trump administration's tariff policy and its impact on supply chains, the upcoming April CPI data's influence on inflation expectations, and recent comments from Federal Reserve officials regarding policy direction [5]