荷兰国际：CPI后过度空头头寸导致美元超调反弹 或可解释周三小幅下跌 金十数据7月16日讯，在数据显示美国6月年度CPI通胀率从5月的2.4%回升至2.7%后，美元小幅走低， 回吐了部分强劲涨幅。荷兰国际集团（ING）分析师Francesco Pesole在报告中表示，过度的美元空头头 寸可能导致了数据公布后该货币出现小幅超调反弹，这或许可以解释周三的小幅下跌。然而，荷兰国际 预计美元可能自此继续上涨。他表示，强劲的通胀数据可能使美联储9月降息的理由难以成立。 ...

Group 1: Currency Market Overview - The US dollar index has declined for the second consecutive day, trading around 98.59, with expectations for the largest weekly gain in over a month due to safe-haven demand from Middle East conflicts [1] - The Federal Reserve has raised its interest rate targets for 2026 and 2027 to 3.6% and 3.4% respectively, indicating significant inflation risks [1] - Investor sentiment shows a strong preference for strategic dollar short positions, with the total dollar short positions nearing $40 billion, close to historical records [1] Group 2: Euro and Yen Dynamics - The euro has rebounded above the key level of 1.15 against the dollar, although its upward movement may be limited due to potential US intervention in the Middle East [5] - Japanese inflation data has exceeded expectations, supporting further rate hike expectations, which has benefited the yen [6] - The Japanese government plans to significantly reduce long-term bond issuance, with a reduction of 1.8 trillion yen in 20-year bonds, indicating a tightening fiscal policy [6] Group 3: Other Currency Movements - The Swiss franc is expected to record its largest weekly decline since mid-April due to the Swiss National Bank's rate cut to 0% [7] - The Norwegian central bank unexpectedly cut rates by 25 basis points, leading to a decline of over 1% in the Norwegian krone against the dollar [8] - Risk-sensitive currencies like the Australian and New Zealand dollars have seen a slight increase of 0.1% this week [9]