鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔的一席话，让市场吃下了"定心丸"，却也埋下了新的悬念。 美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上的讲话，被市场普遍解读为9月降息的明确信号，但这 一鸽派转向的背后，是美联储内部日益加剧的分歧。对于投资者而言，一次降息或许近在眼前，但后续 的宽松路径远非坦途，政策前景的不确定性正在成为新的焦点。 在昨晚的演讲中，鲍威尔明确指出"风险平衡似乎正在发生转变"，并强调就业市场面临的"下行风险正 在增加"。他表示，由于政策已处于限制性区间，这些因素"可能需要我们调整政策立场"。这番表态被 广泛视为他为启动降息所做的最强铺垫。 金融市场对此反应热烈。美股应声大涨，道指创历史新高，美债收益率则大幅下跌，其中2年期收益率 跌7.44基点。 华尔街策略师们迅速调整预期，认为9月降息几乎"已成定局"。德意志银行首席美国经济学家Matthew Luzzetti称，这是鲍威尔倾向于9月降息25个基点的"一个相当强烈的信号"。 然而，市场的乐观情绪并未完全掩盖决策层内部的矛盾。鲍威尔的讲话远非无条件承诺，他同时警告了 关税带来的持续通胀风险。更重要的是，美联储内部的分歧意味着，即便9月降息，这也有可能是一次 性的妥 ...

Group 1: Currency Market Overview - The US dollar index has declined for the second consecutive day, trading around 98.59, with expectations for the largest weekly gain in over a month due to safe-haven demand from Middle East conflicts [1] - The Federal Reserve has raised its interest rate targets for 2026 and 2027 to 3.6% and 3.4% respectively, indicating significant inflation risks [1] - Investor sentiment shows a strong preference for strategic dollar short positions, with the total dollar short positions nearing $40 billion, close to historical records [1] Group 2: Euro and Yen Dynamics - The euro has rebounded above the key level of 1.15 against the dollar, although its upward movement may be limited due to potential US intervention in the Middle East [5] - Japanese inflation data has exceeded expectations, supporting further rate hike expectations, which has benefited the yen [6] - The Japanese government plans to significantly reduce long-term bond issuance, with a reduction of 1.8 trillion yen in 20-year bonds, indicating a tightening fiscal policy [6] Group 3: Other Currency Movements - The Swiss franc is expected to record its largest weekly decline since mid-April due to the Swiss National Bank's rate cut to 0% [7] - The Norwegian central bank unexpectedly cut rates by 25 basis points, leading to a decline of over 1% in the Norwegian krone against the dollar [8] - Risk-sensitive currencies like the Australian and New Zealand dollars have seen a slight increase of 0.1% this week [9]

英国央行货币政策委员格林：未来我们可能会看到政策分歧的出现。 ...

金十数据5月20日讯，据AXIOS网站报道，两名白宫官员表示，美国总统特朗普对加沙正在进行的冲突 感到沮丧，他向其助手表示，告诉以色列总理内塔尼亚胡，他希望内塔尼亚胡结束这场冲突。美国和以 色列官员否认特朗普准备"放弃"以色列，也否认他正在向内塔尼亚胡施加巨大压力。但他们承认，希望 结束冲突的特朗普和大规模扩大冲突的内塔尼亚胡之间的政策分歧越来越大。一位白宫官员表示："总 统对加沙正在发生的事情感到沮丧。他希望冲突结束，他希望人质回家，他希望援助进入，他希望开始 重建加沙。" 美媒：特朗普对加沙局势感到沮丧，希望内塔尼亚胡可以"结束它" ...