— 劳动力市场是否继续释放"温和降温"信号； — 官员表态是否推动利率预期发生方向性修正； — 美元与美债联动是否进一步强化黄金的对冲需求。 从最新数据来看，美国 11 月非农就业新增 6.4 万人，略高于市场预期，但此前 10 月数据被明显下修， 失业率同步升至 4.6%，刷新 2021 年以来高位。与此同时，平均时薪环比仅增长 0.1%，较前值明显回 落，显示薪资端通胀压力正在减弱。消费端同样呈现降温迹象，10 月零售销售环比持平，未能延续此 前的扩张动能。整体而言，就业市场仍具韧性，但"温和走弱"已逐步成为共识，这种结构性变化持续为 黄金提供利率与预期层面的支撑。 美联储在 12 月会议上完成年内第三次、也是最后一次 25 个基点的降息，但政策前景并未因此明朗。官 员们对 2026 年是否仍需进一步宽松分歧明显，官方预测中值倾向于仅一次降息，部分决策者甚至认为 无需继续调整政策立场。亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克指出，就业报告"好坏参半"，不足以改变整体经济 判断；同时强调企业成本压力仍在，价格因素尚未完全消退。这使得政策讨论继续在"就业放缓"与"通 胀粘性"之间拉锯。市场正密切关注纽约联储主席威廉姆斯及博斯 ...

【美联储决议前夕，美国市场"超级平静"】数据显示，恐慌指数VIX和追踪债券市场预期波动率的 MOVE指数均降至低位，尾部风险对冲大量平仓。但分析师警告这种平静较为脆弱：美联储内部出现政 策分歧，可能出现分裂投票；鹰派降息或就业恶化都可能迅速引发新一轮波动。 ...

知情人士称，特朗普理论上仍可能改变主意不提名哈塞特，但除非贝森特出面干预，这种情况不太可能 发生。特朗普曾多次要求贝森特本人接受这一职位，但后者予以婉拒。 特朗普周日曾告诉记者"我知道我要选谁"，当被问及是否是哈塞特时，他只是笑而不语。据"新美联储 通讯社"之称的《华尔街日报》记者Nick Timiraos报道，哈塞特满足了总统的两个关键标准：忠诚度， 以及在市场中的公信力。特朗普表示不会在明年初之前公布最终人选。 这一表态实际上终结了高级顾问精心设计的面试流程。财政部长贝森特此前将11名初始候选人筛选至5 人，并计划本周继续面试以向总统推荐最终名单，如今这一程序已被特朗普亲自"取消"。 精心设计的流程成摆设 被视为领跑者的哈塞特原本也在与万斯及白宫官员会面的名单中。其他入围者包括前美联储理事沃什 （Kevin Warsh）和现任理事沃勒（Christopher Waller）。 Nick Timiraos报道称，特朗普在周二内阁会议上表示，"我们可能看了10个"候选人，但"已经缩减到一 个人"。他明确表示对完成贝森特启动的面试流程不感兴趣。 白宫在声明中称，"在总统本人宣布之前，没有人知道他下一任美联储主席 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current gold price is experiencing a downward trend, trading around $4050 per ounce, reflecting a significant drop from its recent high of $4110.03, and a 7% decrease from the historical peak of $4381.29 reached in October. However, gold prices have still shown a remarkable 55% increase since 2025 [1]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent Federal Reserve meeting minutes revealed "serious divisions" among policymakers, with the better-than-expected September non-farm payroll data supporting the rationale for slowing the current easing pace [2]. - The September non-farm payroll report showed an unexpected increase of 69,000 jobs, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, the highest since 2021, indicating potential challenges for the labor market [2]. - The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a 60.2% probability of maintaining current interest rates in the upcoming meeting, with a 39.8% chance of a rate cut, reflecting a shift in market expectations [2]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - Key resistance levels for gold are identified at $4240 and near the historical high of $4381, which may impact short-term price movements [4][5]. - Support levels are established at $4041 (20-day moving average), $4000 (psychological level), and $3886 (near the low point from October 28), which are crucial for maintaining price stability [6][7]. - Despite short-term pressures, gold's performance remains driven by multiple macro factors, indicating strong upward momentum even in a hawkish Fed environment [7].

Core Insights - By the end of 2025, the market will continue to be overshadowed by the "data vacuum" and "policy divergence" in the US. The relatively certain macro trends before the end of the year are: 1) The Federal Reserve has shifted to a loose monetary policy, benefiting US Treasuries and gold; 2) The oil market is facing oversupply, negatively impacting oil prices; 3) China's policy remains stable, favoring the bond market and providing thematic opportunities for A-shares; 4) Europe and Japan lack endogenous growth momentum, with Japan's "high market trading" peaking and Europe's economy stagnating [3][5]. Stock Market - Increasing Divergence, Seeking Structural Oases - A-shares are currently in a phase of negotiation between policy expectations and economic realities, with market performance highly dependent on signals from the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference. The focus is shifting from "monetary easing" to "fiscal expectations," with expectations for a shift towards greater fiscal stimulus aimed at expanding domestic demand and building a modern industrial system [6]. - The US stock market's strong performance is primarily driven by a few tech stocks, contrasting with the deteriorating data vacuum and macroeconomic realities, facing significant correction pressure before the end of the year. The Federal Reserve's recent dovish actions have increased policy uncertainty, negatively affecting risk asset valuations [8][14]. - The Japanese stock market, driven by new Prime Minister's fiscal policies, has shown signs of fatigue, with recent profit-taking leading to a decline. The market is returning to fundamentals, and any global risk aversion, especially in the AI sector, could lead to significant volatility [16]. - European stock markets are lacking upward catalysts due to economic stagnation and a neutral central bank stance, with core economies like Germany and France facing growth challenges [21]. Bond Market - Turning Interest Rate Cycle, Seeking Balance of Safety and Yield - The US Treasury market is entering a rate-cutting cycle, with the yield curve showing a "non-typical" steepening, highlighting the value of long-term bonds. The Federal Reserve's recent dovish shift signals a significant opportunity for long-term US Treasuries [31][32]. - In the domestic bond market, the People's Bank of China is maintaining a "moderately loose" monetary policy, providing stable support for the bond market. The low correlation of Chinese bonds with global indices makes them a valuable safe haven amid geopolitical risks [37]. Commodity Market - The Game of Hedging and Oversupply - Gold prices are expected to recover after a healthy correction following a record high, with the long-term bullish logic remaining intact due to declining real interest rates and ongoing central bank purchases [41][43]. - The oil market is under pressure from oversupply, with prices expected to remain weak. The increase in production from OPEC+ and non-OPEC countries has led to a significant oversupply, overshadowing geopolitical risks [47][49]. Overall Asset Allocation Summary - The report suggests prioritizing assets that benefit from the clearest macro trends, such as US Treasuries and gold, while avoiding assets affected by uncertainties like the US data vacuum and AI bubble. The recommended allocation order is: 1) Safe assets benefiting from Fed easing (US Treasuries, gold); 2) Structurally independent opportunities (domestic bonds, Indian stocks); 3) Markets awaiting catalysts (Vietnam); 4) Risk assets facing stagnation or bubble peaks (US, Japanese, European stocks); 5) Cyclical commodities under supply pressure (oil) [52][53].

Core Insights - The U.S. government shutdown has entered its sixth week, leading to the inability of the Labor Department to release critical non-farm payroll reports for the second consecutive month, creating unprecedented challenges for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions in December [1][3][5] - Economists express concerns that key economic data, particularly the unemployment rate for October, may never be published due to the shutdown, resulting in a significant information void for policymakers [1][2][5] Group 1: Economic Data Impact - The shutdown has resulted in a complete halt of government data, making it difficult for policymakers, investors, economists, and the general public to understand the economic situation clearly [3] - The Labor Department's data collection methods differ between business surveys and household surveys, complicating the collection of reliable unemployment data [2][4] - There is a growing risk that the Labor Department may abandon the collection of October data altogether, focusing instead on November data, which would mean the October unemployment rate may never be reported [2][4][5] Group 2: Federal Reserve's Dilemma - The lack of reliable data is exacerbating existing divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding monetary policy, with officials expressing differing views on the need for interest rate cuts [1][8] - Market expectations indicate a slightly higher than 50% chance of a rate cut in December, but the absence of key data complicates the decision-making process for the Fed [1][8] - The Fed's upcoming meeting in December may lack reliable employment data, contrasting with the situation in October, which could lead to further policy disagreements among officials [9] Group 3: Alternative Data Sources - In the absence of official data, the market is turning to private sector data, such as ADP's employment figures, which indicate weak job growth concentrated in specific sectors like education and healthcare [6][7] - However, private data cannot fully substitute for official statistics, particularly regarding inflation, leading to concerns about the quality and reliability of the available information [6][7] - The quality of government data is under scrutiny, with some officials fearing that this could lead to more aggressive rate cuts from those worried about labor market conditions, while others may advocate for a pause due to inflation concerns [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market is experiencing a bullish trend, with prices fluctuating around $4001 per ounce, indicating a potential upward movement after eight days of consolidation [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The U.S. job market shows signs of weakness, with a surprising decrease of 9,100 non-farm jobs in October, reversing the previous increase of 33,000 [2]. - Challenger companies reported a record high in layoffs, exceeding 153,000, marking a 175.3% year-on-year increase, the highest for this period since 2003 [2]. - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December have surpassed 70%, reflecting growing concerns over economic conditions [2]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy - There is a notable division among policymakers regarding the future of interest rates, with some expressing caution due to a lack of key inflation data caused by government shutdowns [2]. - The Chicago Fed President highlighted the uncertainty in economic visibility, while the Cleveland Fed President argued for tighter monetary policy due to persistent inflation [2]. Group 3: Gold Market Analysis - International gold is trading within a range of $3950 to $4020, with a delicate balance at the $4000 mark, which has resisted upward movements three times [3]. - The current macroeconomic environment, characterized by mixed signals from U.S. economic data, is reinforcing the volatile nature of gold prices, with the market awaiting the Federal Reserve's decision to break the current stalemate [3]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - Key resistance levels for gold are identified between $4000 and $4015, with a defensive position suggested above $4020 [4]. - A target range for potential downward movement is set between $3970 and $3930, with a focus on monitoring market dynamics during Asian and European trading sessions [4].

Core Viewpoint - The future direction of the Japanese yen will largely depend on the policy divergence between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan, rather than domestic political factors [1] Group 1 - If the resignation of Shinto Abe leads to increased instability within the Liberal Democratic Party, the market may price in a higher political risk premium [1] - This could result in a surge of safe-haven inflows into the yen, which would help to mitigate pressure on Japanese government bond yields [1]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole conference is interpreted as a clear signal for a potential interest rate cut in September, but it also highlights increasing internal divisions within the Fed regarding future monetary policy [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Financial markets reacted positively to Powell's speech, with U.S. stocks rising sharply and the Dow Jones reaching a historic high, while U.S. Treasury yields fell significantly, particularly a 7.44 basis point drop in the 2-year yield [1]. - Wall Street strategists quickly adjusted their expectations, with Deutsche Bank's chief U.S. economist Matthew Luzzetti indicating that Powell's remarks strongly suggest a 25 basis point cut in September [1][3]. Group 2: Internal Divisions within the Fed - Despite the consensus on a September rate cut, there are significant internal disagreements among Fed officials, divided into three main camps: the dovish camp advocating for multiple cuts, the hawkish camp opposing cuts due to inflation concerns, and the centrist camp favoring a cautious approach [4][5]. - The dovish camp includes officials like Fed governors Waller and Bowman, who express concerns over labor market weakness, while the hawkish camp, represented by figures like Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, remains skeptical about the need for cuts [4]. Group 3: Future Policy Uncertainty - Powell's acknowledgment of increasing risks in the labor market and potential inflation from tariffs complicates the Fed's future policy path, making it difficult to predict subsequent actions after a potential rate cut [5][6]. - The possibility of a "one-and-done" scenario, where only a single rate cut occurs, is highlighted as a realistic outcome depending on upcoming employment and inflation data [5][6]. Group 4: Data-Driven Decision Making - Powell's speech has shifted market focus from whether there will be a September cut to how many cuts may follow, emphasizing the importance of upcoming economic data in shaping future Fed decisions [6]. - The next FOMC meeting will be crucial as it will provide new economic forecasts, which will be more significant than the single rate cut decision itself [6].

Group 1: Currency Market Overview - The US dollar index has declined for the second consecutive day, trading around 98.59, with expectations for the largest weekly gain in over a month due to safe-haven demand from Middle East conflicts [1] - The Federal Reserve has raised its interest rate targets for 2026 and 2027 to 3.6% and 3.4% respectively, indicating significant inflation risks [1] - Investor sentiment shows a strong preference for strategic dollar short positions, with the total dollar short positions nearing $40 billion, close to historical records [1] Group 2: Euro and Yen Dynamics - The euro has rebounded above the key level of 1.15 against the dollar, although its upward movement may be limited due to potential US intervention in the Middle East [5] - Japanese inflation data has exceeded expectations, supporting further rate hike expectations, which has benefited the yen [6] - The Japanese government plans to significantly reduce long-term bond issuance, with a reduction of 1.8 trillion yen in 20-year bonds, indicating a tightening fiscal policy [6] Group 3: Other Currency Movements - The Swiss franc is expected to record its largest weekly decline since mid-April due to the Swiss National Bank's rate cut to 0% [7] - The Norwegian central bank unexpectedly cut rates by 25 basis points, leading to a decline of over 1% in the Norwegian krone against the dollar [8] - Risk-sensitive currencies like the Australian and New Zealand dollars have seen a slight increase of 0.1% this week [9]