马来亚 银行全球市场外汇研究与策略区域主管Saktiandi Supaat：日元后续走向更多将取决于美联储与日 本央行的政策分歧，而非国内政治。如果石破辞职升级为自民党内部的不稳定性，市场可能会以更大的 政治风险溢价来定价，从而放大流入日元的避险资金潮，并平抑日本国债收益率的压力。 ...

鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔的一席话，让市场吃下了"定心丸"，却也埋下了新的悬念。 美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上的讲话，被市场普遍解读为9月降息的明确信号，但这 一鸽派转向的背后，是美联储内部日益加剧的分歧。对于投资者而言，一次降息或许近在眼前，但后续 的宽松路径远非坦途，政策前景的不确定性正在成为新的焦点。 在昨晚的演讲中，鲍威尔明确指出"风险平衡似乎正在发生转变"，并强调就业市场面临的"下行风险正 在增加"。他表示，由于政策已处于限制性区间，这些因素"可能需要我们调整政策立场"。这番表态被 广泛视为他为启动降息所做的最强铺垫。 金融市场对此反应热烈。美股应声大涨，道指创历史新高，美债收益率则大幅下跌，其中2年期收益率 跌7.44基点。 华尔街策略师们迅速调整预期，认为9月降息几乎"已成定局"。德意志银行首席美国经济学家Matthew Luzzetti称，这是鲍威尔倾向于9月降息25个基点的"一个相当强烈的信号"。 然而，市场的乐观情绪并未完全掩盖决策层内部的矛盾。鲍威尔的讲话远非无条件承诺，他同时警告了 关税带来的持续通胀风险。更重要的是，美联储内部的分歧意味着，即便9月降息，这也有可能是一次 性的妥 ...

Group 1: Currency Market Overview - The US dollar index has declined for the second consecutive day, trading around 98.59, with expectations for the largest weekly gain in over a month due to safe-haven demand from Middle East conflicts [1] - The Federal Reserve has raised its interest rate targets for 2026 and 2027 to 3.6% and 3.4% respectively, indicating significant inflation risks [1] - Investor sentiment shows a strong preference for strategic dollar short positions, with the total dollar short positions nearing $40 billion, close to historical records [1] Group 2: Euro and Yen Dynamics - The euro has rebounded above the key level of 1.15 against the dollar, although its upward movement may be limited due to potential US intervention in the Middle East [5] - Japanese inflation data has exceeded expectations, supporting further rate hike expectations, which has benefited the yen [6] - The Japanese government plans to significantly reduce long-term bond issuance, with a reduction of 1.8 trillion yen in 20-year bonds, indicating a tightening fiscal policy [6] Group 3: Other Currency Movements - The Swiss franc is expected to record its largest weekly decline since mid-April due to the Swiss National Bank's rate cut to 0% [7] - The Norwegian central bank unexpectedly cut rates by 25 basis points, leading to a decline of over 1% in the Norwegian krone against the dollar [8] - Risk-sensitive currencies like the Australian and New Zealand dollars have seen a slight increase of 0.1% this week [9]

英国央行货币政策委员格林：未来我们可能会看到政策分歧的出现。 ...

Core Viewpoint - President Trump is frustrated with the ongoing conflict in Gaza and hopes Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu will end it [1] Group 1: U.S. and Israel Relations - U.S. and Israeli officials deny that Trump is preparing to "abandon" Israel or exerting significant pressure on Netanyahu [1] - There is an increasing policy divergence between Trump, who wants to end the conflict, and Netanyahu, who is expanding it [1] Group 2: Trump's Concerns - Trump expresses a desire for the conflict to end, for hostages to return home, for aid to enter Gaza, and for the rebuilding of Gaza to begin [1]