Core Insights - Recent divergence in dollar deposit interest rates among banks, with some offering higher rates for shorter terms and others for longer terms [1][2] - The expectation of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is influencing the current interest rate landscape for dollar deposits [3] Group 1: Divergence in Dollar Deposit Rates - The divergence in dollar deposit interest rates among banks is primarily due to expectations regarding Federal Reserve rate adjustments, market supply and demand, and individual bank strategies [2] - Foreign banks are more responsive to international market changes, predicting a continued decline in short-term rates, while some domestic banks maintain higher long-term rates to attract deposits [2] - Smaller banks often use high short-term rates as a marketing strategy, while larger state-owned banks focus on long-term stability through tiered interest rates [2] Group 2: Future of Dollar Deposit Rates - There is a high probability that dollar deposit rates at small and medium-sized banks will decline to the "2% range" within the year, driven by ongoing Federal Reserve rate cuts [3] - As the Federal Reserve lowers its benchmark rates, the cost of dollar funding for banks will decrease, further pushing down deposit rates [3] - Evidence of "2% range" rates is already emerging, with some banks having reduced rates below 3% and others expected to follow suit [3] Group 3: Investment Recommendations for Dollar Deposits - Current advice suggests caution against blindly investing in long-term dollar deposits; short-term products may be considered with awareness of interest and exchange rate risks [4] - A strategy of "short-term locking + purpose matching" is recommended for dollar deposits, especially for those with specific dollar usage needs [4] - Diversification is emphasized, with suggestions to consider dollar money market funds for liquidity and returns, as well as equity dollar assets through QDII funds targeting U.S. tech stocks [4]

在美元存款利率上升的过程中，外币理财尤其是美元理财的利 率也节节攀升，2023年至2024年，有理财公司推出的美元理 财产品年化收益在5%以上，远远超过其业绩比较基准。 作者： 胡艳明 封图：图虫创意 9月底，北京的潘女士收到朋友转发给她的一张银行存款产品介绍信息——某银行的国庆专享美元 存款产品（1年期）年化利率达3.85%，5000美元起存。 3.85%是目前市面上比较高的美元存款利率了。 随着9月美联储降息消息落地，美元相关资产受到了政策利率变动的影响。以美元存款为例，部分 银行跟进下调了美元存款的利率。 在美元加息周期内，美元存款利率从年化3%左右，逐步达到5.5%左右，而在新开启的降息周期， 又逐步回落，到现在不及4%。 自2022年以来，潘女士经历了美元存款利率从节节升高到逐渐走低的过程。她有一笔美元存款将 在今年12月底到期，是到期后结汇，还是继续购买美元存款，抑或转投美元理财？ 很多像潘女士一样的投资者，希望为资产找一个好的"归宿"。 美元存款利率"过山车" "人民币3年期存款年利率为1.8%；美元1年期存款年利率最高达3.3%。"9月18日上午10点，潘女 士看到某家股份行的客户经理推介该行 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has led to a notable rise in the early termination of dollar-denominated wealth management products in the domestic market, with six products terminating early in July compared to only two in the same month last year [1][2]. Group 1: Reasons for Early Termination of Dollar Wealth Management Products - The frequent early termination of dollar wealth management products can be attributed to two main factors: product design and market environment changes. Many of the terminated products are "target return" type, which include stop-profit clauses aimed at helping investors lock in gains [2]. - The market environment has shifted, particularly affecting products primarily invested in U.S. Treasury bonds. Recent influences such as policy expectations, tariff conflicts, and geopolitical factors have led to a decline in U.S. Treasury yields, accelerating the net asset value growth and causing annualized returns to exceed stop-profit thresholds [2]. Group 2: Considerations for Investors Holding Dollar Wealth Management Products - Investors holding dollar wealth management products should assess whether to redeem based on various factors. If holding a "target return" product close to the stop-profit threshold, it may be prudent to wait for natural termination to secure gains. However, if the product has not reached the stop-profit threshold and has a longer remaining term (e.g., over one year), investors should be cautious of potential yield declines due to anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts [3]. - In the event of redemption, investors might consider allocating to short-term dollar assets to mitigate long-term currency risk while benefiting from higher interest spreads. Additionally, focusing on equity dollar assets through QDII funds that track major U.S. tech stocks, such as those in the Nasdaq 100 index, could be beneficial. Another strategy could involve converting 30%-50% of dollar assets into non-dollar currency assets or investing in emerging market stocks in countries like Vietnam and South Korea to diversify currency risk [3]. Group 3: General Investment Considerations for Dollar Assets - When investing in dollar assets, it is essential to consider personal circumstances, product characteristics, and market conditions. Investors should match their actual needs with the risk levels of the products they choose. It is also crucial to pay attention to product design and underlying assets to lock in gains and avoid market volatility [4]. - Continuous monitoring of market changes, such as the Federal Reserve's September meeting and the U.S.-China interest rate differential, is necessary for timely adjustments to asset allocations [4].