通过更广泛的资产配置来应对不确定性。 经历了2025年的罕见普涨行情后，2026年市场进入新一轮资产配置博弈。去年，全球主要股指均录得正 收益，中国资产表现尤为亮眼，贵金属市场也迎来火爆走势。 站在全球经济与市场周期的关键节点，主要经济体增长动能切换、货币政策取向变化以及地缘格局重 塑，正共同塑造新一轮资产定价逻辑。渣打银行日前发布《2026年全球市场展望》并表示，随着美国经 济"软着陆"概率上升、全球贸易紧张局势边际缓和，以及人工智能持续推动生产率提升，2026年风险资 产有望整体跑赢，但市场分化将更加显著，投资者需要通过更广泛的资产配置来应对不确定性。 渣打认为，中国可能在2026年推出更果断的刺激政策，"十五五"规划建议的发布将进一步明确先进技术 投资方向，从而改善企业盈利预期。在A股及H股方面，渣打认为市场估值仍显著低于全球水平，亚太 整体对全球股票存在折让。若美股资金出现流出，小体量市场如A股可能展现更高弹性。A股可关注政 策支持的硬科技及部分消费板块，H股重点关注科技、通信服务及高股息国企。 相较之下，欧洲（除英国）和日本股票被下调至低配。此外，科技股仍是市场关注主线，但投资逻辑需 从"讲三五年故 ...

记者 尹睿 济南报道 2026年,居民定期存款市场将迎来规模空前的集中到期潮。根据中金公司（601995）货币金融研究数据, 全年合计超过30万亿元的2年期、3年期和5年期居民定期存款将陆续到期,其中2年期20.7万亿元、3年期 9.6万亿元、5年期1.3万亿元。 与存款到期高峰形成鲜明对比的,是定期存款利率的深度下调。上述到期存款在2025年及之前存入时,普 遍享受了相对较高的利率。但根据中金研究测算,它们重定价(即到期后重新存入)后,利率将分别显著下 行72、142和168个基点(bp),普通储户正面临资金重新配置的关键抉择。 数字人民币或成过渡选择 自2026年1月1日起,工商银行、中国银行、农业银行、建设银行、交通银行及邮储银行（601658）六大 国有行同步执行数字人民币计息政策,数字货币正式告别"无息时代"。 根据公告细则,一类、二类、三类个人实名钱包及单位钱包余额,均按照该行公布的活期存款挂牌利率计 付利息,每季度末月20日结息、21日入账,与传统活期存款规则完全一致。记者在六大国有银行官网查询 到,当前各家银行的活期存款挂牌利率均为0.05%。 值得注意的是,此次计息范围明确排除四类非实名钱包 ...

智通财经记者 | 安震 "今年1月我在银行买了一些美元存款，当时一年期利率3.4%，没想到后来人民币持续升值，现在看如果到期后换回人民币，这笔投资肯定是亏损的。但不 换回人民币，再投资美元存款产品，利率又有点鸡肋，有点进退两难了。"小李对智通财经表示。 12月30日，人民币继续了此前的升值态势，在离岸市场12月25日升破"7"后，人民币对美元即期汇率走强并升破"7"关口，这是2024年10月以来首次升破这一 整数关口。今年以来，人民币升值幅度超过4%，也就是说，汇率波动已经抹平了利率收益。 随着美联储年内第三次降息落地，国内银行美元存款利率也随行就市整体下降，与此同时，近期人民币对美元汇率持续走强，突破关键关口，进一步加剧了 美元存款的收益不确定性。对于投资者而言，如何在利率波动与汇率变化的双重影响下理性配置美元存款，成为当前需要重点考量的问题。 美元产品高息不再 2025年12月11日，美联储宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点至3.5%至3.75%之间，这是年内第三次降息，年内累计降息幅度达75个基点，美元降息 周期的传导效应迅速向国内银行美元存款市场扩散。 前述银行总行人士对智通财经表示，除了美联储 ...

杭州市民张凯（化名）手头上有1万多美元外汇，今年2月份一部分美元（8400美元）办了13个月的定期 存款，到期利率为2.8%，到期收益254.8美元。如果按目前的汇率计算，本金加利息相当于人民币60596 元；而年初的时候，8400美元相当于61629元人民币。也就是说，按人民币计价的话，张凯的8400美元 不但没赚到钱，反而亏1033元人民币。 时隔15个月，人民币汇率再度"破7"。 12月25日，在连日升值后，离岸人民币对美元汇率升破7.0整数关口，盘中最高升值至6.9960，这也是 2024年9月以来首次。同时，在岸人民币对美元汇率同样延续升值走势，逼近7.0关口，盘中最高升值至 7.0052。 有人年初存美元，如今倒亏钱 人民币的大幅升值，也使得美元存款成了"负收益"。 国家金融与发展实验室特聘高级研究员庞溟表示，近期的人民币升值行情，是外部压力趋缓、内部韧性 增强、政策精准调控与市场预期转向等多种因素共同作用的结果。美联储进入降息周期，导致美元指数 显著走弱，带动包括人民币在内的主要非美货币普遍被动升值。市场预期伴随着美联储继续开展降息， 将进一步压制美元长期走势，为人民币提供外部升值空间。 "从内 ...

Core Viewpoint - The offshore RMB has strengthened against the USD, breaking the "7" threshold for the first time since September 2024, with the exchange rate reaching 6.9993 as of December 25, 2023 [1] Group 1: Reasons for RMB Strengthening - The offshore RMB has appreciated by 4.6% against the USD this year, with a significant rise since November 21, 2023, when it was around 7.11 [2] - Factors contributing to the RMB's appreciation include reduced external pressures, enhanced internal resilience, precise policy adjustments, and shifting market expectations, particularly due to the Federal Reserve entering a rate-cutting cycle [2][3] - The Chinese economy's resilience, improved economic data, and increased foreign investment in Chinese assets have bolstered the RMB, alongside seasonal demand for currency exchange by enterprises [3] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Predictions - Current market views suggest that the recent appreciation is linked to year-end currency exchange demands, but some analysts argue that it is primarily driven by central bank adjustments and changes in the USD environment [4] - Analysts predict that the trend of a weaker USD will continue into 2026, providing a favorable external environment for the RMB, with expectations of moderate appreciation [3] Group 3: Impacts of RMB Appreciation - The recent RMB appreciation is seen as beneficial for the Chinese stock and bond markets, enhancing the attractiveness of RMB-denominated assets for foreign investors [5] - For export enterprises, the appreciation may reduce exchange profits, while import costs will decrease, suggesting a need for businesses to manage currency risk effectively [6] - The appreciation has led to negative returns for some USD deposits when converted back to RMB, highlighting the impact on individual investors [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the Chinese yuan against the US dollar has led to negative returns for dollar deposits, impacting individuals and families with foreign currency holdings [2][3][6]. Group 1: Currency Exchange Trends - The offshore yuan has shown a significant upward trend against the US dollar, with the exchange rate reaching 7.3368 by December 31, 2024 [1]. - Since November 21, the yuan has been steadily rising from around 7.11, with expectations of breaking the 7 mark increasing [6]. - The yuan's appreciation is attributed to a combination of external pressures easing, internal economic resilience, and market expectations shifting [7]. Group 2: Impact on Individuals and Families - Individuals holding dollar deposits have experienced losses due to the yuan's appreciation, with one case showing a loss of 1,033 yuan on an 8,400 dollar deposit [2]. - Families with children studying abroad benefit from the yuan's strength, as it reduces the cost of tuition and living expenses in foreign currencies [3][8]. Group 3: Market Implications - The appreciation of the yuan is expected to positively influence the Chinese stock and bond markets, enhancing the attractiveness of yuan-denominated assets [8]. - Increased demand for yuan due to seasonal currency exchange needs from businesses is contributing to the currency's strength [7].

12月25日，离岸人民币兑美元汇率升破7.0大关。 | 美元兑中国离岸人民币 | | | | | | 纽 添加自选 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FX USDCNH ③ 外汇 ■ Level1基础行情 | | | | | | | | | 6.997542 -0.0214 -0.3000% | | | | | | | | | 交易中 12-25 10:34 北京时间 | | | | | | | | | 与 中国离岸人民币兑美元 0.1429 +0.0004 +0.3100% > | | | | | | | | | 行情 | | | | | | | | | 今开 7.0332 最高 | | | | 7.0391 | 买入价 | | 6.9952 | | 昨收 7.0070 | | 最低 | | 6.9928 | 卖出价 | | 6.9999 | | स्त्रीय 周K 月K 更多v | 日K | | | | | | 6 高级工具 | | 7.018950 | | | | | | | 0.1704% | | 7.008320 | | ...

2024年9月是一个值得纪念的月份，市场呼唤已久的美联储降息终于落地，降息幅度还不小，基准利率 下调幅度从开始的25个基点到最终的50个基点，对市场情绪起到一定的提振作用。在美国降息之后，美 元存款利率会下降吗？不少投资者希望赶在下降之前上车，锁定当前的高息美元存款。 不少投资者希望在美元存款利率普遍下降前锁定较高的利率，以获取稳定的收益，这也让美元存款的热 度居高不下。 但是，毕竟美元存款和人民币存款不同，影响因素也不同，是否值得在当前这个时候"上车"美元存款， 需要投资者根据自身的资金需求和风险偏好来决定。 一方面，美元存款可以提供相对较高的收益，尤其是在全球低利率环境下；另一方面，随着美联储的降 息，未来美元存款的利率可能会进一步下降，这可能会影响投资者的收益预期。 9月19日周四凌晨，美联储开启了自2020年以来的首次降息，下调基准利率50个基点，可谓是"一石激起 千层浪"，这也必然会为全球金融市场带来重大影响。 随着美联储开启降息模式，美元存款利率也将进入下降通道，只是时间早晚的问题。多家银行在美联储 降息前已经对部分美元存款利率进行了调整，以应对可能的市场变动。 据了解，恒生银行和江苏银行的美元存 ...

2025年，美联储三次降息后，看似诱人的美元存款利率正被悄然攀升的人民币汇率所稀释，越来越多投 资者在利率窗口与汇率波动间寻找平衡。 目前，国内多数银行美元存款利率已跌破3%，工行、招行等1年期利率多为2.8%。渤海银行、江苏银行 等少数银行还有3字头利率产品，部分外资银行也曾靠活动推出高息短期美元存款。业内称美元存款利 率后续还会降，提醒投资者警惕汇率与利率双重风险，人民币快速升值或让结汇损失超利息收益。 另一方面，利用政策传导的"时间差"与营销窗口，一批高息产品逆势吸引眼球。渤海银行北京某支行理 财经理坦言："早一个月办理，我行的美元存款利率都能达到3.5%以上。伴随美联储降息，预计未来还 会降。"该行目前1年期美元存款年化利率为3.2%。 产品定价呈现精细化、分层化特征。以南京银行为例，针对20万美元起存的高净值客户，1年期利率可 达3.42%；起存金额降至5万美元时，利率调整为3.3%；而对于3000~5000美元的小额客户，利率则回落 至2.5%~2.8%。 外资银行亦加紧布局。渣打银行针对新客户推出3个月期年化利率3.8%的专属产品；汇丰银行、星展银 行也同步推出类似利率的短期产品。理财子公司同样 ...

Group 1: Personal Consumption and Living Costs - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts lead to a weaker dollar, making studying abroad, shopping, and travel cheaper for Chinese families, potentially saving over 10,000 yuan annually for those studying in the U.S. [2] - The appreciation of the yuan results in lower prices for imported consumer goods, such as electronics and luxury items, but may weaken the competitiveness of export goods, particularly in labor-intensive sectors like textiles and home appliances [2] - The decline in returns on dollar-denominated assets, including U.S. Treasury bonds and dollar-linked investment products, necessitates adjustments in investment strategies for holders [2] Group 2: Corporate and Macroeconomic Impact - Companies reliant on dollar financing, such as those in technology and real estate, benefit from reduced borrowing costs and alleviated pressure from existing dollar-denominated debt [3] - Export-oriented companies facing rising prices for dollar-denominated goods may experience diminished competitiveness, while firms importing raw materials could face increased cost pressures [4] Group 3: Capital Market Fluctuations - Foreign capital may flow back into emerging markets, with sectors like semiconductors and renewable energy in A-shares benefiting from increased liquidity and valuation improvements [5] - Precious metals like gold and silver are driven up by the weaker dollar, although caution is advised as gold prices are at historical highs [6] Group 4: Policy and Long-term Implications - The narrowing of interest rate differentials between China and the U.S. reduces depreciation pressure on the yuan, creating favorable conditions for potential interest rate cuts and reductions in reserve requirements in China, which may lead to lower mortgage rates [7] - Short-term stimulus measures could exacerbate asset bubbles in markets like U.S. stocks and real estate, with risks of market reversals if inflation rebounds or economic conditions weaken [8] - Debt pressures in emerging markets remain unresolved, and rapid capital movements could heighten financial volatility [9] Group 5: Strategies for Individuals - Individuals are advised to reduce holdings in dollar-denominated assets and shift towards high-dividend A-share leaders, gold ETFs, and QDII overseas bond funds [10] - Caution is recommended regarding high-valuation assets, with a preference for industries with stable cash flows, such as utilities and consumer staples [11] - Those needing to exchange for dollars should consider doing so during the depreciation period, but long-term holdings should be approached with caution [12] Group 6: Controversies and Uncertainties - Internal divisions within the Federal Reserve are evident, with a 9:3 vote on December rate cuts, and the pace of rate cuts in 2026 remains uncertain, potentially accelerated by political interventions [13] - The interplay between AI expansion by tech giants, which relies on low interest rates, and the potential for increased unemployment and inflation creates policy dilemmas [13] - The current rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are characterized as "preventive" adjustments, with the core issue being the balance between weak employment and persistent inflation, necessitating attention to potential pauses in rate cuts in January 2026, which will directly influence capital flows and policy space [14]