分析师：孙书娜 登记编号：S0890523070001 分析师：顾昕 登记编号：S0890524040001 市场回顾： 上周（2025.07.28-2025.08.01）债券收益率呈现波动走势。中债-综合财富指数（CBA00201）收涨 0.15%，中债-综合全价指数(CBA00203)收涨0.11%。利率债各期限收益率震荡下行，长端表现略弱于短端。信 用债各期限、评级收益率多数下行，信用利差窄幅波动。 市场观察： 超预期增值税政策扰动，债市情绪修复；非农爆冷下修，美债收益率大幅下行；REITs二级市场反 弹，成交活跃度回暖。 公募基金市场动态： 2025年7月31日，财政部、国家税务总局发布《关于国债等债券利息收入增值税政策的公 告》（2025年第4号），宣布自2025年8月8日起，对新发行的国债、地方政府债券、金融债券的利息收入恢复 征收增值税。这一政策采取了"新老划断"的方式，即对2025年8月8日之前已发行的债券（包含在之后续发的部 分），继续免征增值税直至债券到期。 泛固收基金指数表现跟踪 货币增强指数：上周收涨0.03%，成立以来累计录得3.88%的收益。 短期债基优选：上周收涨0.06%，成立 ...

Group 1 - The latest Producer Price Index (PPI) data shows a 0.1% increase in May, leading to an annual rate of 2.6%, indicating a more moderate inflation environment [1][3] - Initial jobless claims remained stable at 248,000, the highest level since October of the previous year, suggesting potential labor market weakness [3] - The core PPI also rose by 0.1% in May, below economists' expectations of a 0.3% increase, reflecting subdued inflationary pressures [3] Group 2 - European Central Bank's Vice President expressed greater concern over weak economic growth rather than inflation risks, as Eurozone inflation fell to 1.9% in May [4] - UK economic data revealed a 0.3% contraction in April, exceeding economists' expectations of a 0.1% decline, attributed to global trade tariffs and domestic tax increases [4] - Japanese investors slightly reduced holdings in overseas bonds, while foreign investors increased their holdings in Japanese long-term bonds [6] Group 3 - The U.S. Treasury issued $142 billion in bonds, indicating strong demand despite concerns over government debt and deficits [6] - The U.S. budget deficit for May totaled $316 billion, a 9% decrease from the previous year, but the year-to-date deficit increased by 14% to $1.36 trillion [7] - Legislation to create a stablecoin framework backed by U.S. debt could bolster the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency, potentially generating an additional $2 trillion in demand for U.S. bonds [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the gold market is currently experiencing a cautious and neutral sentiment, influenced by factors such as the dollar's performance, U.S. Treasury yields, and geopolitical tensions [3] - Gold prices briefly fell below the important threshold of $3300, with a subsequent rebound to around $3328 due to a pullback in the dollar and declining bond yields, but the momentum for further increases is limited due to reduced expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][3] - The analysis suggests that while there is still some safe-haven demand for gold, it has not been strong enough to drive significant price increases, and the market remains cautious ahead of key negotiations among major economies [3] Group 2 - Technical analysis indicates that gold prices are currently in a weak downward trend, with significant resistance around $3397 and key support levels at $3273 and $3244 [5] - The four-hour chart shows that gold prices are forming a downward breakout pattern, with the potential to test lower support levels if the price falls below $3300 [5] - Recommendations for trading strategies include entering short positions if the price breaks below $3308 or considering short positions on minor rebounds near $3325 [5]

操作策略及建议： 1.3360附近做多，止损3352， 目标3392-3412 黄金消息面：周四（6月5日）美盘时段，现货黄金价格显著回落至3359.5美元/盎司附近交投，然而整体走势依然保持强势。虽然美元的小幅反弹对金价上 行构成一定制约，但支撑因素依然稳固，包括美联储降息预期、美债收益率下行、美国财政担忧以及持续的贸易和地缘政治风险。当前市场观望氛围浓厚， 注意力高度集中于即将发布的非农就业数据。从技术角度看，黄金短线仍有上行潜力，若能有效突破3385美元阻力位，则有望打开进一步上涨空间。全球经 济环境的不确定性，特别是美国服务业意外萎缩、就业数据表现疲软以及特朗普政府新关税政策带来的冲击，均为金价提供了强劲的上行动能。此外，大国 间紧张关系、欧美贸易谈判的进展以及市场对美联储降息预期的持续升温，进一步激发了黄金市场的买盘热情，使得金价冲击3400美元重要关口的可能性有 所增加。 黄金走势分析：黄金当前持稳于日线布林中轨（3355）上方，但布林轨道未开口，暗示上行空间受限于前高及上轨阻力3405附近，不宜过分看涨；今天晚上 突破3400至3404，需关注价格能否形成均线多头排列以开启单边趋势。4小时周期显 ...