Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The "credit explosion chain" in the US may not have ended, and risks may further ferment in the short term, but the risk of a systemic crisis is still controllable, and the probability of a "subprime crisis" is low [4]. - If the risk ferments, US stocks are expected to fall first and then rise; US Treasury yields and the US dollar tend to decline; gold will rise; and emerging markets are expected to see their equities fall first and then rise, with bond yields declining [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Three "Explosion" Events Trigger Concerns about US Financial Risks - **Tricolor Bankruptcy, Auto - Loan ABS Risk**: On September 10, 2025, Tricolor Holdings filed for bankruptcy due to high - leverage, sub - prime loans, "repeated pledge" fraud, and rising auto - loan default rates. The "repeated pledge" of the same "auto - loan pool" as collateral and the increase in sub - prime auto - loan delinquency rates added to its operating pressure. Fifth Third Bank and JPMorgan Chase suffered losses of about $1.8 trillion and $1.7 trillion respectively due to Tricolor's bankruptcy [13]. - **First Brands Bankruptcy, "Black - Box" Financing Exposure**: On September 28, 2025, First Brands, an auto - parts leader, filed for bankruptcy protection, leaving a $5.8 billion leveraged loan debt and a total debt of nearly $12 billion. It relied on syndicated loans and private credit, accumulating high leverage through private credit and asset factoring, with billions of dollars of financing off - balance - sheet. Jefferies faced a $715 million exposure, and UBS and a Japanese joint - venture company may bear losses [15]. - **Two Regional Banks Disclose "Credit Fraud"**: On October 16, 2025, Zions Bancorp and Western Alliance Bancorp disclosed major credit fraud and bad - debt events. Zions' subsidiary provided a $60 million loan and made a $50 million bad - debt provision. On that day, bank stocks tumbled, and safe - haven funds flowed into Treasuries and precious metals, with gold breaking through $4,300 [16]. 2. Comparison between the 2023 Silicon Valley Bank Crisis and the 2025 Credit Storm - **2023 Silicon Valley Bank Crisis**: The core cause was the asset - liability mismatch and the exposure of interest - rate risk due to the Fed's sharp interest - rate hikes. The secondary cause was the high customer concentration and the resulting confidence - based bank run [20]. - **2025 Credit Storm**: Different from the SVB crisis, the core causes were financial fraud, high - leverage financing, weak credit risk control, deteriorating credit quality due to economic slowdown, and the spread of losses through structured tools [22]. 3. Outlook on the Subsequent Risks of "Credit Explosions" - **Short - Term Spread Possible but Systemic Risk Controllable**: The "credit explosion chain" may not end, and risks may ferment in the short term. The US financial market shows "multi - layer fragility" including large post - pandemic issuance of private credit, CLOs, and CRE ABS; deterioration of underlying asset quality in auto, commercial real estate, and SME loans; and insufficient risk control. However, the risk of a systemic financial crisis is controllable as large banks and the core financial system are stable, and the Fed has room for easing. Current credit risk indicators are performing well [4]. - **Impact on Asset Prices if Risks Ferment**: US stocks are expected to fall first and then rise, with short - term impacts concentrated on the banking and financial sectors. US Treasury yields and the US dollar tend to decline, while gold will rise. Emerging market equities are expected to fall first and then rise, and bond yields may decline [35].

2 200 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 贵金属数据日报 | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0013700 | | | 2025/10/20 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 宏观金融研究中心 白素娜 | | 从业资格号:F3023916 | | | | | | 日期 | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 | COMEX黄金 | COMEX白银 | AU2512 | AG2512 | AU (T+D) | AG (T+D) | | 内外盘金 银15点价 | | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | | 格跟踪 | 2025/10/17 | 4360. 01 | 54. 21 | 4372. 50 | 53. 15 | 999. 80 | 12249.00 | 997.00 | 12220.00 | | (本表数 | | | | | | | | ...