Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Becerra expressed confidence that President Trump's tariff plan will prevail in the Supreme Court, but warned that if deemed illegal, the Treasury would have to issue substantial refunds, potentially returning about half of the tariff revenue, which would be catastrophic for the Treasury [1][4] - The Trump administration has requested the Supreme Court to expedite a ruling to overturn a previous appellate court decision that deemed most of the tariffs imposed on various imported goods as illegal [2][4] - If the Supreme Court ruling is delayed until June 2026, the amount of tariffs collected could reach between $750 billion to $1 trillion, and the cancellation of these tariffs would lead to significant chaos [3][4] Group 2 - The possibility of having to refund such large tariff amounts could provide unprecedented unexpected income for businesses and institutions that have paid these tariffs [4] - The U.S. Tax Foundation indicated that before the court's intervention, Trump's tariff plan was set to cover nearly 70% of imported goods, but if overturned, the affected import goods ratio would drop to about 16% [4] - Despite confidence in a favorable Supreme Court ruling, the government is preparing alternative plans in case of a loss, which may include imposing tariffs under other legal provisions, such as the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 [5] Group 3 - The Trade Expansion Act of 1962 allows the President to impose tariffs after investigating trade practices to ensure imports do not threaten national security, with recent expansions of tariffs on steel and aluminum covering over 400 product categories [5] - The judicial dispute will not affect tariffs on low-priced goods, as the government has officially eliminated the "de minimis" exemption for U.S. imports valued at $800 or less [5] - Following the removal of the tariff exemption for low-priced imports, the U.S. inbound postal volume has reportedly dropped by over 80% due to postal operators awaiting compliance guidance on the new rules [5]

Core Viewpoint - Lavazza attributes 80% of the recent surge in coffee prices to financial speculators, particularly hedge funds, which have driven prices to unsustainable levels for the industry and consumers [1] Group 1: Coffee Price Surge - The global benchmark price for Robusta coffee futures soared to over $5,700 per ton in January 2023, before retreating to around $3,500 this week, still significantly above the historical average of $1,700 [1] - Over the past two years, global coffee consumption has declined by 3.5% due to high prices [1] Group 2: Impact of Speculation - Giuseppe Lavazza stated that while adverse harvests have affected coffee bean prices, hedge funds have played a decisive role in price volatility [2] - The futures market's limited size amplifies the effects of speculation, allowing small amounts of capital to create significant market movements [2] - Lavazza criticized the claim that hedge funds provide market liquidity, arguing that liquidity issues and rising margin requirements have pushed some companies to the brink of bankruptcy [2] - Mercon Coffee Group, one of the largest coffee traders, filed for bankruptcy at the start of the current price surge [2] - Lavazza Group faced immense pressure, with coffee procurement costs reaching €1.6 billion last year, nearly doubling from €600 million in 2018 [2] Group 3: Regulatory and Trade Challenges - New regulations proposed by the EU and Trump's tariff plans may lead to further price increases [3] - Trump's tariffs on coffee imports from Brazil and Vietnam could challenge pricing for U.S. consumers [3] - The EU's new deforestation regulation, effective by the end of this year, will prohibit the sale of certain commodities, including coffee, grown on deforested land, imposing strict limitations on European roasters [3] - Lavazza expressed concerns that lawmakers driving this regulation do not understand the operational realities of the coffee business [3]

Group 1 - U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen reassured Wall Street that the U.S. will never default on its debt, stating that the country is on a warning track but will not hit a "default wall" [1] - Concerns about rising federal debt are heightened as President Trump urges Congress to pass his "beautiful bill," which is expected to increase the federal deficit [1] - The U.S. Congressional Budget Office (CBO) warned that without new budget legislation, the U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio will exceed the peak levels of the 1940s in the coming years [1][2] Group 2 - The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget warned that Trump's plan could add approximately $3 trillion in debt over the next decade, with the bill already passed in the House and heading to the Senate [2] - Investors are worried about the debt ceiling increase, which is tied to Trump's tax and spending plan, complicating negotiations in Congress [2] - Yellen did not specify the "X date," when the Treasury would run out of cash, indicating that this information is used to push the bill through [2] Group 3 - Musk criticized the large spending bill, expressing disappointment that it undermines government efficiency efforts [3] - The Trump administration claims that the bill will not increase the deficit and that existing forecasts do not account for the economic growth benefits [4] - Yellen stated that this year's deficit will be lower than last year and will continue to decrease in the following years [5] Group 4 - Trump's tariff plan faced obstacles as a court ruled that the president lacked the authority to impose most tariffs, although the ruling was temporarily stayed [6] - The U.S. Secretary of Commerce assured that even if certain powers are restricted, alternative methods to impose tariffs will be found [6]

特朗普已然瞄准美联储！与鲍威尔的对抗一触即发 美国总统特朗普正将目光聚焦于美联储，并准备与美联储主席鲍威尔展开一场对抗。 随着人们对特朗普的贸易议程的担忧日益加深，特朗普渴望美联储加快降息步伐，以缓解经济压力。反 过来，美联储则在为特朗普关税可能引发的价格冲击做准备，这将推迟任何降息，即使经济走弱。 到目前为止，特朗普对美联储的恼怒情绪还算温和。尽管在上周四美联储暂停降息后，他一直抨击美联 储，但他尚未发出直接威胁。 但随着白宫将矛头指向各机构的独立性，即使与白宫的紧张关系在其明年任期结束前达到临界点，鲍威 尔也不太可能屈服于被逼下台。 华盛顿研究公司Capital Alpha Partners董事Ian Katz表示，鉴于可能给市场带来的动荡，他预计特朗普不 会试图解雇鲍威尔。 尽管如此，Katz警告说，"鉴于特朗普在本届任期内迄今为止在主张权威方面如此咄咄逼人，你不能排 除任何可能性。" 特朗普已采取激进措施，以加强他对政府的控制，并按照其政治意愿重塑政府。特朗普政府已推动大幅 削减主要机构的预算，解雇了数千名非政治雇员。 特朗普政府还对独立机构实施了新规定，要求它们在发布拟议法规之前提交给白宫审查。 特 ...