1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current precious metal prices are in a sideways consolidation. The uncertainty of Trump's tariff plan, the tense situation of the third round of US - Iran nuclear negotiations, and the solid fundamentals support the prices. However, the statements of Fed officials and the market's expectation of the US maintaining short - term interest rates unchanged pose resistance. The prices are likely to remain in a high - level oscillation in the future. The strategy is to stay on the sidelines for now. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Gold is 1130 - 1200 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai Silver is 22000 - 23000 yuan/kilogram [2][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - Shanghai Gold fell 0.25% to 1146.04 yuan/gram, and Shanghai Silver fell 1.88% to 22219.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX Gold fell 0.36% to 5207.60 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX Silver fell 2.54% to 89.30 US dollars/ounce. The 10 - year US Treasury yield was reported at 4.02%, and the US dollar index was reported at 97.77 [2] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - The current precious metal fundamentals are still strong. COMEX continues the de - stocking trend. The de - stocking intensity of silver has increased, with the total inventory at 11217.13 tons (-37.49 tons), and the gold inventory has decreased for two consecutive days, currently at 1045.93 tons (-2.29 tons). In 2026, the global silver gap is expected to reach 67 million ounces, showing a supply shortage for six consecutive years. The rigid industrial demand in the fields of AI data centers, electric vehicles, and semiconductor manufacturing further strengthens the support for silver prices. In 2026, the global central bank's gold purchase volume is expected to reach 755 tons, which is lower than the previous peak but still much higher than the average level of 400 - 500 tons per year before 2022, providing support for the gold price [3] 3.3 Strategy Suggestion - Keep a wait - and - see attitude for now. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Gold is 1130 - 1200 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai Silver is 22000 - 23000 yuan/kilogram [4] 3.4 Data Summary - A large amount of data on gold and silver, including closing prices, trading volumes, open interests, inventories, and precipitation funds of different trading platforms (COMEX, LBMA, SHFE, etc.), as well as the daily changes, daily price changes, and historical quantiles of these data are provided [7]

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Becerra expressed confidence that President Trump's tariff plan will prevail in the Supreme Court, but warned that if deemed illegal, the Treasury would have to issue substantial refunds, potentially returning about half of the tariff revenue, which would be catastrophic for the Treasury [1][4] - The Trump administration has requested the Supreme Court to expedite a ruling to overturn a previous appellate court decision that deemed most of the tariffs imposed on various imported goods as illegal [2][4] - If the Supreme Court ruling is delayed until June 2026, the amount of tariffs collected could reach between $750 billion to $1 trillion, and the cancellation of these tariffs would lead to significant chaos [3][4] Group 2 - The possibility of having to refund such large tariff amounts could provide unprecedented unexpected income for businesses and institutions that have paid these tariffs [4] - The U.S. Tax Foundation indicated that before the court's intervention, Trump's tariff plan was set to cover nearly 70% of imported goods, but if overturned, the affected import goods ratio would drop to about 16% [4] - Despite confidence in a favorable Supreme Court ruling, the government is preparing alternative plans in case of a loss, which may include imposing tariffs under other legal provisions, such as the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 [5] Group 3 - The Trade Expansion Act of 1962 allows the President to impose tariffs after investigating trade practices to ensure imports do not threaten national security, with recent expansions of tariffs on steel and aluminum covering over 400 product categories [5] - The judicial dispute will not affect tariffs on low-priced goods, as the government has officially eliminated the "de minimis" exemption for U.S. imports valued at $800 or less [5] - Following the removal of the tariff exemption for low-priced imports, the U.S. inbound postal volume has reportedly dropped by over 80% due to postal operators awaiting compliance guidance on the new rules [5]

Core Viewpoint - Lavazza attributes 80% of the recent surge in coffee prices to financial speculators, particularly hedge funds, which have driven prices to unsustainable levels for the industry and consumers [1] Group 1: Coffee Price Surge - The global benchmark price for Robusta coffee futures soared to over $5,700 per ton in January 2023, before retreating to around $3,500 this week, still significantly above the historical average of $1,700 [1] - Over the past two years, global coffee consumption has declined by 3.5% due to high prices [1] Group 2: Impact of Speculation - Giuseppe Lavazza stated that while adverse harvests have affected coffee bean prices, hedge funds have played a decisive role in price volatility [2] - The futures market's limited size amplifies the effects of speculation, allowing small amounts of capital to create significant market movements [2] - Lavazza criticized the claim that hedge funds provide market liquidity, arguing that liquidity issues and rising margin requirements have pushed some companies to the brink of bankruptcy [2] - Mercon Coffee Group, one of the largest coffee traders, filed for bankruptcy at the start of the current price surge [2] - Lavazza Group faced immense pressure, with coffee procurement costs reaching €1.6 billion last year, nearly doubling from €600 million in 2018 [2] Group 3: Regulatory and Trade Challenges - New regulations proposed by the EU and Trump's tariff plans may lead to further price increases [3] - Trump's tariffs on coffee imports from Brazil and Vietnam could challenge pricing for U.S. consumers [3] - The EU's new deforestation regulation, effective by the end of this year, will prohibit the sale of certain commodities, including coffee, grown on deforested land, imposing strict limitations on European roasters [3] - Lavazza expressed concerns that lawmakers driving this regulation do not understand the operational realities of the coffee business [3]

Group 1 - U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen reassured Wall Street that the U.S. will never default on its debt, stating that the country is on a warning track but will not hit a "default wall" [1] - Concerns about rising federal debt are heightened as President Trump urges Congress to pass his "beautiful bill," which is expected to increase the federal deficit [1] - The U.S. Congressional Budget Office (CBO) warned that without new budget legislation, the U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio will exceed the peak levels of the 1940s in the coming years [1][2] Group 2 - The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget warned that Trump's plan could add approximately $3 trillion in debt over the next decade, with the bill already passed in the House and heading to the Senate [2] - Investors are worried about the debt ceiling increase, which is tied to Trump's tax and spending plan, complicating negotiations in Congress [2] - Yellen did not specify the "X date," when the Treasury would run out of cash, indicating that this information is used to push the bill through [2] Group 3 - Musk criticized the large spending bill, expressing disappointment that it undermines government efficiency efforts [3] - The Trump administration claims that the bill will not increase the deficit and that existing forecasts do not account for the economic growth benefits [4] - Yellen stated that this year's deficit will be lower than last year and will continue to decrease in the following years [5] Group 4 - Trump's tariff plan faced obstacles as a court ruled that the president lacked the authority to impose most tariffs, although the ruling was temporarily stayed [6] - The U.S. Secretary of Commerce assured that even if certain powers are restricted, alternative methods to impose tariffs will be found [6]

Core Viewpoint - President Trump is focusing on the Federal Reserve and preparing for a confrontation with Chairman Powell, seeking faster interest rate cuts to alleviate economic pressure amid concerns over his trade agenda [1][2]. Group 1: Trump's Pressure on the Federal Reserve - Trump is urging the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, citing declining prices for groceries and energy as justification [2]. - Despite Trump's pressure, the Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates in the range of 4.25% to 4.5%, with Powell indicating that tariffs may hinder efforts to reduce inflation [2][3]. - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates twice this year, but Atlanta Fed President Bostic has revised his stance, now supporting only one rate cut due to the impact of tariffs [3]. Group 2: Independence of Regulatory Institutions - The Trump administration has implemented new regulations requiring independent agencies to submit proposed regulations for White House review, raising concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve [2][4]. - There are fears regarding Trump's ability to dismiss Federal Trade Commission (FTC) commissioners, which could challenge the independence of regulatory bodies [4]. - The White House has not provided new statements regarding Trump's plans for Powell's tenure, emphasizing the administration's economic agenda [6]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Legal Implications - Speculation exists that Trump may attempt to dismiss Powell, which could lead to significant market turmoil and a potential stock market sell-off [6]. - Analysts suggest that any legal battle over Powell's dismissal could disrupt markets, as it would raise concerns about presidential influence over monetary policy [6].