Key Points - The article discusses the recent trends in major asset classes, highlighting the rise in 10-year U.S. Treasury yields and the concurrent increase in gold and silver prices. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices experienced slight declines of 0.4% and 0.7%, respectively, while the 10-year Treasury yield rose by 6.0 basis points to 4.24% [2][3] - The article notes a decrease in the U.S. Treasury General Account (TGA) balance, which fell to $777.1 billion as of January 14, 2026, and a decline in net issuance of U.S. debt, with a rolling net issuance of -$9.23 million [2][62] - The U.S. December core Consumer Price Index (CPI) was weaker than expected, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% compared to the anticipated 0.3%. This has led to increased market speculation regarding Kevin Walsh as a potential candidate for the next Federal Reserve Chair [2][84] - The article highlights that U.S. retail sales in November exceeded expectations, rising by 0.6% month-on-month, driven by significant improvements in motor vehicle sales and dining services, indicating resilience in consumer spending [2][85] - The article also mentions that initial jobless claims in the U.S. were lower than market expectations, with 198,000 claims reported, compared to the anticipated 215,000 [2][88]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The Fed faces various issues, and the gold market will experience high - level volatility. Attention should be paid to the divergence between gold and silver [2]. - In the short term, PTA may continue its strong - side oscillation, but in the long term, the price increase space may be limited due to new capacity release [2]. - Steel prices are expected to be weak and volatile in the short term due to weak demand and increased supply - demand pressure [4]. - For iron ore, there is an opportunity to short after the short - term rebound ends, and it is recommended to short the 2509 contract at high levels [4]. - Coke prices are expected to be weak and volatile in the short term as the fundamental contradiction shifts to the demand side [5]. - The bond market has some support, but a mid - term slightly bearish and oscillating view is appropriate [5]. - Silver may have a mid - term wide - range oscillation with a slightly bearish trend, and it may deviate from the gold market [6]. - The decline of the national pig price has limited downward space, and it is recommended to wait and see or look for long - position opportunities [7]. - Palm oil prices are expected to oscillate in the short term with limited downward space [7]. - Domestic soybeans are expected to maintain a stable price in the short term, and it is recommended to go long on dips [7]. - Methanol 09 contract is expected to be weak and oscillating in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or go long on dips [8]. - Soda ash 09 contract is expected to be weak and oscillating in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or go long on dips [9]. - Crude oil has little short - term pressure, and long - term attention should be paid to relevant negotiations and OPEC+ production increases [10]. - Caustic soda 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [11]. - For rubber, a cautious short - selling at high levels strategy is recommended, considering relevant negotiations and production issues [12]. Summary by Variety Gold - Atlanta Fed President Bostic warns that inflation is developing in a worrying direction and expects a rate cut this year. Moody's downgrading of the US rating may have a negative impact on US companies and households. The Fed's rate - cut issue is more uncertain, and gold will be in high - level oscillation [2]. PTA - PXCFR is reported at $837 per ton, and PX - N is $272 per ton. Asian and domestic PX loads have decreased, with Asian PX load dropping 3.1% to 67.5% and domestic PX load dropping 4.5% to 74.1%. PXN has significantly repaired, and PTA may continue its strong - side oscillation in the short term but face limited upward space in the long term [2]. Steel - On May 19, the domestic steel market fell weakly. Due to the real - estate adjustment, foreign trade impact, and approaching off - season, steel demand is expected to be weak. Steel prices may be weak and volatile in the short term [4]. Iron Ore - From May 12 - 18, the arrival volume of iron ore at Chinese ports decreased. Macro - positive sentiment has been released, and there is an opportunity to short after the short - term rebound ends. It is recommended to short the 2509 contract at high levels with a reference resistance of 750 yuan per ton [4]. Coke - The daily coke production of 247 steel mills is flat, and inventory has decreased. Supply is increasing, while iron - water production has slightly decreased. The first - round price cut has caused pessimism, and coke prices may be weak and volatile in the short term [5]. Treasury Bonds - Multiple banks will lower RMB deposit rates, which supports the bond market. The bond market's logic is unclear, and a mid - term slightly bearish and oscillating view is appropriate [5]. Silver - The US government's tax - cut policy may boost the economy and risk appetite, which is beneficial to silver. However, the global economic downturn is negative for silver, and a mid - term wide - range oscillation with a slightly bearish trend is expected [6]. Live Pigs - On May 19, the national pig price decreased slightly. After the middle of the month, supply exceeded demand, and the price adjustment was weak. The downward space is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see or look for long - position opportunities [7]. Palm Oil - As of May 16, the commercial inventory of three major oils increased. China's palm - oil imports in April increased year - on - year. The domestic spot basis is stable, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [7]. Soybeans - The US soybean planting rate and emergence rate are higher than expected. The price drivers of US soybeans are uncertain, and domestic soybeans are expected to be stable in the short term. It is recommended to go long on dips [7]. Methanol - The price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang has decreased. The start - up rate has decreased, and the port inventory is expected to increase. The methanol 09 contract is expected to be weak and oscillating in the short term [8]. Soda Ash - The price of heavy soda is stable, the start - up rate has increased, and the inventory has risen. The float - glass market is weak, and the soda - ash 09 contract is expected to be weak and oscillating in the short term [9]. Crude Oil - Iran's stance on nuclear - related rights is clear, Moody's downgraded the US rating, and China's economic data is positive. Short - term pressure is small, and long - term attention should be paid to relevant negotiations and OPEC+ production increases [10]. Caustic Soda - The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong has increased. The start - up rate is stable, and the inventory has risen. The caustic - soda 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term [11]. Rubber - Thai and Chinese rubber raw - material prices vary. The inventory in Qingdao has decreased. The demand for rubber is weaker than last year. A cautious short - selling at high levels strategy is recommended, considering relevant negotiations and production issues [12].