Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term, the absolute price of crude oil is expected to remain oscillating strongly, with Brent crude oil in the range of $65 - 70. Medium - term, the absolute price is expected to weaken, and the price will drop to $60 per barrel in the fourth quarter. Due to the adjustment of the autumn maintenance expectations in Europe, the cracking price expectation of European diesel in the fourth quarter is raised [6][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily News - **Iran Issue**: The US Secretary of State Rubio said the US is still willing to have direct contact with Iran. The Iranian Foreign Minister stated that the E3 countries' move to initiate "rapid restoration of sanctions" is "unfounded and illegal". An Iranian senior official mentioned that diplomacy with the three European countries will continue, and Tehran will decide on equivalent measures.英法德 restarted the procedure of implementing UN sanctions on Iran, and the UN Security Council will hold a meeting on this on Friday [3][4]. - **India's Oil Import**: Despite US tariff threats, India is expected to increase its Russian crude oil imports in September by 10% - 20% (150,000 - 300,000 barrels per day more than August). Russia will have more crude oil exports next month as refinery outages (both planned and unplanned) have reduced its crude - to - fuel processing capacity. Ukraine attacked 10 Russian refineries recently, affecting up to 17% of its refining capacity. French bank BNP Paribas believes India won't significantly cut Russian oil imports [4]. - **Russian Refining Capacity**: Russia's offline crude oil refining capacity in August reached a record high of 6.4 million tons, a 65% increase from previous estimates [4]. Regional Fundamentals - **US EIA Report**: In the week ending August 15, US crude oil exports increased by 795,000 barrels per day to 4.372 million barrels per day; domestic crude oil production increased by 55,000 barrels to 13.382 million barrels per day; commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 6.014 million barrels to 421 million barrels (a 1.41% decrease); the four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 21.093 million barrels per day, a 3.34% increase from the same period last year; the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 223,000 barrels to 403.4 million barrels (a 0.06% increase); and commercial crude oil imports (excluding strategic reserves) were 6.497 million barrels per day, a decrease of 423,000 barrels per day from the previous week [4][5][6]. - **US Gasoline and Refined Oil Inventories**: In the week ending August 15, US EIA gasoline inventories were - 2.72 million barrels (expected - 0.915 million barrels, previous value - 0.792 million barrels), and refined oil inventories were 2.343 million barrels (expected 0.928 million barrels, previous value 0.714 million barrels) [6]. - **China's Refining Situation**: From August 15 - 22, the operating rate of major Chinese refineries decreased month - on - month, while that of Shandong local refineries increased slightly. The weekly production of gasoline and diesel in Chinese refineries decreased, with gasoline inventories decreasing and diesel inventories increasing. The comprehensive profit of major refineries and local refineries decreased month - on - month [6]. Weekly View - **Market Situation**: This week, crude oil prices oscillated narrowly, with a slight rebound in absolute prices on Friday. At the end of the summer peak oil demand season, the inflection point of the crude oil fundamentals has emerged. South American supply has been realized, and the market is concerned about the Russia - Ukraine negotiations and the implementation of US "punishment" measures on India's purchase of Russian oil. On August 21, India said it would continue to buy Russian oil, eliminating the embargo risk, but trade frictions still have uncertainties. The US announced a new round of sanctions on Iran on Thursday, affecting two Chinese companies, and the Dubai market's month - spread strengthened afterwards [6]. - **Macro and Fundamental Analysis**: Macroscopically, the expectation of a US interest rate cut in September has increased, and the macro sentiment is positive, supporting the absolute price. Fundamentally, global oil inventories have slightly decreased, with US commercial inventories, gasoline inventories decreasing, and diesel inventories increasing. This week, the refining profits of European and American refineries have strengthened, and the cracking spreads of gasoline and diesel have strengthened. Currently, refineries are at the peak of operation, and the latest estimate shows that global refinery maintenance in October will exceed previous years' levels (in Europe and Africa), and the crude oil month - spread is expected to be under pressure [6][7]. - **Price Forecast**: In the short - term, the absolute price of crude oil is expected to remain oscillating strongly, with Brent crude oil in the range of $65 - 70. In the medium - term, the absolute price is expected to weaken, and the price will drop to $60 per barrel in the fourth quarter. Due to the adjustment of the European autumn maintenance expectations, the fourth - quarter European diesel cracking price expectation is raised [7].

Core Insights - The report provides a comprehensive overview of the U.S. crude oil and refined products market, highlighting changes in prices, inventory levels, production, and import/export activities. U.S. Crude Oil - The average weekly prices for Brent and WTI crude oil futures were $67.4 and $64.9 per barrel, down $4.2 and $3.6 from the previous week [2] - Total U.S. crude oil inventory was 830 million barrels, with commercial inventory at 420 million barrels, strategic inventory at 400 million barrels, and Cushing inventory at 20 million barrels, showing changes of -2.79 million, -3.03 million, +0.23 million, and +0.45 million barrels respectively [2] - U.S. crude oil production was 13.28 million barrels per day, a decrease of 30,000 barrels per day from the previous week [2] - U.S. refinery crude oil processing volume was 17.12 million barrels per day, an increase of 210,000 barrels per day, with a refinery utilization rate of 96.9%, up 1.5 percentage points [2] - U.S. crude oil imports, exports, and net imports were 5.96 million, 3.32 million, and 2.64 million barrels per day, reflecting changes of -170,000, +620,000, and -790,000 barrels per day respectively [2] U.S. Refined Products - Average weekly prices for gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel were $88, $96, and $89 per barrel, down $3.9, $5.2, and $5.1 respectively, with price differentials to crude oil at $20, $28, and $21 per barrel [3] - Gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel inventories were 230 million, 110 million, and 40 million barrels, with changes of -1.32 million, -570,000, and +970,000 barrels respectively [3] - Production of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel was 9.80 million, 5.11 million, and 1.98 million barrels per day, showing decreases of 240,000, 100,000, and increases of 110,000 barrels per day respectively [3] - Consumption of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel was 9.04 million, 3.72 million, and 1.71 million barrels per day, reflecting changes of -110,000, +120,000, and -390,000 barrels per day respectively [3] Refined Products Import/Export - U.S. gasoline imports, exports, and net exports were 120,000, 950,000, and 820,000 barrels per day, with changes of +10,000, +60,000, and +50,000 barrels per day respectively [4] - U.S. diesel imports, exports, and net exports were 80,000, 1.55 million, and 1.47 million barrels per day, with changes of -150,000, +230,000, and +380,000 barrels per day respectively [4] - U.S. jet fuel imports, exports, and net exports were 0, 140,000, and 140,000 barrels per day, with changes of -60,000, 0, and +60,000 barrels per day respectively [4] Related Companies - Recommended companies include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and China National Petroleum Corporation (PetroChina) [4] - Companies to watch include Sinopec Oilfield Service Corporation and China Oilfield Services Limited [4]

Core Insights - The article highlights a significant increase in China's oil imports from Iran, raising concerns in the West about the effectiveness of U.S. sanctions [1][3][5] - The shift in trade dynamics indicates a potential long-term partnership between China and Iran, with implications for international relations and energy markets [7][11] Group 1: Oil Import Trends - In June, China imported an average of 1.8 million barrels of Iranian crude oil per day, a notable increase from May [1] - Another research firm reported a slightly lower daily average of 1.46 million barrels from June 1 to 27, but both figures indicate a substantial trend towards increased imports [3] - The rise in Iranian oil exports coincides with a peak in Iran's oil export volumes, marking a significant recovery in recent years [3] Group 2: Trade Mechanisms - Since July 2022, China has ceased direct imports of Iranian oil through official channels, instead utilizing third countries like Malaysia for indirect trade [3][5] - Many oil tankers had already set sail with Iranian oil in May, indicating a pre-planned strategy to circumvent sanctions [5] Group 3: Economic and Political Implications - The increase in oil exports is crucial for Iran, which needs funds for reconstruction and stabilization after recent conflicts [5] - Iran's political landscape is shifting, with conservative forces gaining influence and a clear stance against resuming negotiations with the U.S. in the short term [7] - The potential for China to resume direct oil imports from Iran could have significant political ramifications, challenging U.S. dominance in the Middle East [7][11] Group 4: Broader Cooperation - Beyond oil, China and Iran are enhancing cooperation in other sectors, particularly in infrastructure development [7] - The deepening energy partnership may undermine U.S. sanctions and encourage other sanctioned nations to follow suit [7][11] Group 5: Future Prospects - While the immediate likelihood of resuming direct energy trade between China and Iran is low, viable solutions for payment and trade could reopen avenues for cooperation [11] - China's current strategy of importing Iranian oil reflects a mutual benefit, enhancing trust between the two nations while also addressing energy security concerns [11]

Group 1: Military Actions - Israel Defense Forces reported a new round of missile attacks initiated by Iran, with air raid sirens sounding across the country, prompting residents to seek shelter [1] - Approximately 25 ballistic missiles were estimated to have been launched by Iran during this attack, with one missile hitting the northern city of Haifa, injuring two individuals, one of whom is in serious condition [4][5] - Iran claimed to have used around 30 missiles in this round of attacks, targeting Tel Aviv [6] Group 2: Diplomatic Developments - Iranian Foreign Minister began discussions with counterparts from Germany, France, and the UK regarding Iran's nuclear issues in Geneva, condemning Israel's attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities as violations of international law [8] - Iranian President emphasized that the only path to peace is the unconditional cessation of Israeli aggression, warning of stronger responses if Israel continues its actions [10][11] Group 3: Sanctions and Economic Measures - The U.S. Treasury Department announced new sanctions targeting one individual, eight entities, and a vessel for their involvement in procuring and transferring sensitive machinery for Iran's defense industry, aiming to curb Iran's missile and weapon capabilities [13]

Core Points - The U.S. Department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) announced sanctions against one individual, eight entities, and one vessel for allegedly procuring and transferring sensitive machinery for Iran's defense industry [1] - The sanctions are part of efforts to enforce a presidential memorandum aimed at preventing Iran from developing missile and other weapon capabilities [1] - OFAC also imposed sanctions on individuals and entities supporting the Iran-backed Houthi movement, marking the largest single action to date, targeting four individuals, twelve entities, and two vessels involved in importing oil and other illicit goods [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary has signed two additional sanctions against Iran, indicating a continued effort to apply maximum pressure on the country [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson indicated that there has been no observed change in the U.S. stance regarding sanctions, and the U.S. has not provided a clear response on the issue of lifting sanctions [1] Group 1 - The Iranian government is closely monitoring the U.S. position on sanctions [1] - There has been no indication of a shift in U.S. policy towards sanctions as of now [1] - The lack of a clear response from the U.S. regarding the lifting of sanctions is noted [1]

Group 1 - Iran has not received any recent proposals from the United States regarding unresolved issues in the nuclear dispute [1] - Iran will only transport highly enriched uranium abroad if the United States lifts sanctions in a "verifiable and effective" manner [1]

金十数据5月13日讯，当地时间5月12日，美国财政部发布新一轮与伊朗有关的制裁。据悉，受到制裁的 包括伊朗两名个人以及一家公司。美财政部称，该公司位于德黑兰沙姆萨巴德工业区，从事敏感技术领 域业务。 美国财政部发布新一轮伊朗相关制裁 ...