新华社华盛顿1月12日电 美国国务院12日要求美国公民立即离开伊朗。 美国国务院当天发布"安全警告"，要求美国公民"在确保安全的前提下，考虑通过陆路经亚美尼亚或土 耳其离开伊朗"。 "安全警告"称，由于伊朗国内抗议活动升级，建议美国公民制定不依赖美国政府帮助的离境计划，如果 无法离开伊朗，应在住所或其他安全建筑内寻找安全地点，储备食物、水、药品及其他必需品。 新华社巴黎1月12日电 法国媒体12日报道，法国驻伊朗大使馆的非必要人员已于11日和12日撤离，使馆 仍在运转。 法国外交部说，法国驻伊朗大使馆保持运转，大使及其团队没有撤离，继续为仍在伊朗的法国公民提供 必要服务。 新华社纽约1月12日电 美国总统特朗普12日在社交媒体发文称，任何与伊朗有商业往来的国家在与美国 进行任何商业往来时将被加征25%关税。 由于美国对伊朗长期实施严厉制裁，双方没有商业往来和正式外交关系，美国无法通过关税手段直接对 伊朗进行有效施压。 白宫新闻秘书莱维特当天说，面对当前伊朗局势，特朗普认为外交是"首选"方案，但如果他认为有必 要，"会毫不犹豫地动用美国军队"。 ...

"特朗普应该知道，美国任何干涉（伊朗）内部事务的行为都将破坏整个地区稳定，并损害美国自身利 益。"拉里贾尼说。 此外，伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊的政治顾问阿里·沙姆哈尼在社交平台X上表示，"伊朗人民深知美国对伊 拉克、阿富汗和加沙等地的'救援'记录。" 环球网援引法新社报道称，对于美国总统特朗普威胁要就伊朗骚乱事件进行干涉一事，伊朗最高国家安 全委员会秘书拉里贾尼1月2日警告称，这将"破坏整个地区稳定"。 当天早些时候，特朗普威胁将就伊朗骚乱事件进行干涉，称美国"已做好准备"。数天前，特朗普还威胁 称，如果伊朗试图再度发展其弹道导弹计划，美方将支持以色列再次对伊朗发起打击。 半岛电视台报道称，伊朗领导人对系列事件的态度"出人意料的缓和"。伊朗总统佩泽希齐扬表示，政府 应对目前的局势负有"责任"，并承诺寻求解决方案。观察人士指出，这一回应与该国以往对抗议活动的 强硬反应截然不同。 伊朗塔斯尼姆通讯社日前报道说，伊朗政府经济团队正在召开紧急会议，讨论处理近期出现在汇率、贸 易和民生方面的问题。佩泽希齐扬政府则在日前任命了一位新的中央银行行长，试图恢复"经济稳定"。 环球网报道称，自2018年美国宣布单方面退出伊核协议以 ...

伊朗外交部评估认为，美国官员针对伊朗的威胁性言论符合以色列在该地区不断升级紧张局势的政策， 并强调伊朗将对任何侵略行为予以迅速、果断、全面地回应。美国政府将对这种情况的后果承担全部责 任，而这可能进一步破坏和扰乱整个地区的稳定。 此外，声明列举了过去数十年来，美国对伊朗内政干涉的案例，并表示美国对伊朗人民基本权利和生计 的残酷制裁，是美国敌视伊朗人民的鲜明例证。 当地时间1月2日，伊朗外交部就美国官员干涉伊朗内政发表声明。声明强烈谴责美国总统及其他美国官 员就伊朗内政发表的干涉主义言论，这种不负责任的立场是美国对伊朗欺凌和非法行径的延续，不仅严 重违反了《联合国宪章》和国际法尊重国家主权的基本原则，而且是对伊朗人民的暴力和恐怖主义煽 动。 声明指出，鉴于美国历届政府长期以来对伊朗事务进行非法干涉，伊朗外交部认为，所谓"对伟大的伊 朗民族表示同情"是虚伪言论，意在欺骗舆论，掩盖其对伊朗人民犯下的种种罪行。 （文章来源：央视新闻客户端） ...

【环球网报道】据法新社报道，对于美国总统威胁要就伊朗骚乱事件进行干涉一事，伊朗最高国家安全委员会秘书拉里贾尼1月2日警告称，这将"破坏整个 地区稳定"。 综合伊朗媒体1日报道，伊朗两个省份发生骚乱，已造成至少3人死亡、13人受伤。自2018年美国宣布单方面退出伊核协议以来，伊朗遭受来自美西方多轮严 厉制裁，货币贬值，通胀严重，经济发展受到严重打击。伊朗塔斯尼姆通讯社日前报道说，伊朗政府经济团队正在召开紧急会议，讨论处理近期出现在汇 率、贸易和民生方面的问题。 "特朗普应该知道，美国任何干涉（伊朗）内部事务的行为都将破坏整个地区稳定，并损害美国自身利益。"拉里贾尼说。 "任何企图干涉伊朗国家安全、并以此为借口的干涉之手，必将在实现其目标之前就会被砍掉并收到令人遗憾的后果。"沙姆哈尼继续写道，"伊朗的国家安 全是不可逾越的红线，绝非（发布）冒险性推文的借口。" 2日早些时候，美国总统特朗普威胁将就伊朗骚乱事件进行干涉，称美国"已做好准备"。数天前，特朗普还威胁称，如果伊朗试图再度发展其弹道导弹计 划，美方将支持以色列再次对伊朗发起打击。 此外，伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊的政治顾问阿里·沙姆哈尼在社交平台X上表示，"伊朗 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term, the absolute price of crude oil is expected to remain oscillating strongly, with Brent crude oil in the range of $65 - 70. Medium - term, the absolute price is expected to weaken, and the price will drop to $60 per barrel in the fourth quarter. Due to the adjustment of the autumn maintenance expectations in Europe, the cracking price expectation of European diesel in the fourth quarter is raised [6][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily News - **Iran Issue**: The US Secretary of State Rubio said the US is still willing to have direct contact with Iran. The Iranian Foreign Minister stated that the E3 countries' move to initiate "rapid restoration of sanctions" is "unfounded and illegal". An Iranian senior official mentioned that diplomacy with the three European countries will continue, and Tehran will decide on equivalent measures.英法德 restarted the procedure of implementing UN sanctions on Iran, and the UN Security Council will hold a meeting on this on Friday [3][4]. - **India's Oil Import**: Despite US tariff threats, India is expected to increase its Russian crude oil imports in September by 10% - 20% (150,000 - 300,000 barrels per day more than August). Russia will have more crude oil exports next month as refinery outages (both planned and unplanned) have reduced its crude - to - fuel processing capacity. Ukraine attacked 10 Russian refineries recently, affecting up to 17% of its refining capacity. French bank BNP Paribas believes India won't significantly cut Russian oil imports [4]. - **Russian Refining Capacity**: Russia's offline crude oil refining capacity in August reached a record high of 6.4 million tons, a 65% increase from previous estimates [4]. Regional Fundamentals - **US EIA Report**: In the week ending August 15, US crude oil exports increased by 795,000 barrels per day to 4.372 million barrels per day; domestic crude oil production increased by 55,000 barrels to 13.382 million barrels per day; commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 6.014 million barrels to 421 million barrels (a 1.41% decrease); the four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 21.093 million barrels per day, a 3.34% increase from the same period last year; the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 223,000 barrels to 403.4 million barrels (a 0.06% increase); and commercial crude oil imports (excluding strategic reserves) were 6.497 million barrels per day, a decrease of 423,000 barrels per day from the previous week [4][5][6]. - **US Gasoline and Refined Oil Inventories**: In the week ending August 15, US EIA gasoline inventories were - 2.72 million barrels (expected - 0.915 million barrels, previous value - 0.792 million barrels), and refined oil inventories were 2.343 million barrels (expected 0.928 million barrels, previous value 0.714 million barrels) [6]. - **China's Refining Situation**: From August 15 - 22, the operating rate of major Chinese refineries decreased month - on - month, while that of Shandong local refineries increased slightly. The weekly production of gasoline and diesel in Chinese refineries decreased, with gasoline inventories decreasing and diesel inventories increasing. The comprehensive profit of major refineries and local refineries decreased month - on - month [6]. Weekly View - **Market Situation**: This week, crude oil prices oscillated narrowly, with a slight rebound in absolute prices on Friday. At the end of the summer peak oil demand season, the inflection point of the crude oil fundamentals has emerged. South American supply has been realized, and the market is concerned about the Russia - Ukraine negotiations and the implementation of US "punishment" measures on India's purchase of Russian oil. On August 21, India said it would continue to buy Russian oil, eliminating the embargo risk, but trade frictions still have uncertainties. The US announced a new round of sanctions on Iran on Thursday, affecting two Chinese companies, and the Dubai market's month - spread strengthened afterwards [6]. - **Macro and Fundamental Analysis**: Macroscopically, the expectation of a US interest rate cut in September has increased, and the macro sentiment is positive, supporting the absolute price. Fundamentally, global oil inventories have slightly decreased, with US commercial inventories, gasoline inventories decreasing, and diesel inventories increasing. This week, the refining profits of European and American refineries have strengthened, and the cracking spreads of gasoline and diesel have strengthened. Currently, refineries are at the peak of operation, and the latest estimate shows that global refinery maintenance in October will exceed previous years' levels (in Europe and Africa), and the crude oil month - spread is expected to be under pressure [6][7]. - **Price Forecast**: In the short - term, the absolute price of crude oil is expected to remain oscillating strongly, with Brent crude oil in the range of $65 - 70. In the medium - term, the absolute price is expected to weaken, and the price will drop to $60 per barrel in the fourth quarter. Due to the adjustment of the European autumn maintenance expectations, the fourth - quarter European diesel cracking price expectation is raised [7].

Core Insights - The report provides a comprehensive overview of the U.S. crude oil and refined products market, highlighting changes in prices, inventory levels, production, and import/export activities. U.S. Crude Oil - The average weekly prices for Brent and WTI crude oil futures were $67.4 and $64.9 per barrel, down $4.2 and $3.6 from the previous week [2] - Total U.S. crude oil inventory was 830 million barrels, with commercial inventory at 420 million barrels, strategic inventory at 400 million barrels, and Cushing inventory at 20 million barrels, showing changes of -2.79 million, -3.03 million, +0.23 million, and +0.45 million barrels respectively [2] - U.S. crude oil production was 13.28 million barrels per day, a decrease of 30,000 barrels per day from the previous week [2] - U.S. refinery crude oil processing volume was 17.12 million barrels per day, an increase of 210,000 barrels per day, with a refinery utilization rate of 96.9%, up 1.5 percentage points [2] - U.S. crude oil imports, exports, and net imports were 5.96 million, 3.32 million, and 2.64 million barrels per day, reflecting changes of -170,000, +620,000, and -790,000 barrels per day respectively [2] U.S. Refined Products - Average weekly prices for gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel were $88, $96, and $89 per barrel, down $3.9, $5.2, and $5.1 respectively, with price differentials to crude oil at $20, $28, and $21 per barrel [3] - Gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel inventories were 230 million, 110 million, and 40 million barrels, with changes of -1.32 million, -570,000, and +970,000 barrels respectively [3] - Production of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel was 9.80 million, 5.11 million, and 1.98 million barrels per day, showing decreases of 240,000, 100,000, and increases of 110,000 barrels per day respectively [3] - Consumption of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel was 9.04 million, 3.72 million, and 1.71 million barrels per day, reflecting changes of -110,000, +120,000, and -390,000 barrels per day respectively [3] Refined Products Import/Export - U.S. gasoline imports, exports, and net exports were 120,000, 950,000, and 820,000 barrels per day, with changes of +10,000, +60,000, and +50,000 barrels per day respectively [4] - U.S. diesel imports, exports, and net exports were 80,000, 1.55 million, and 1.47 million barrels per day, with changes of -150,000, +230,000, and +380,000 barrels per day respectively [4] - U.S. jet fuel imports, exports, and net exports were 0, 140,000, and 140,000 barrels per day, with changes of -60,000, 0, and +60,000 barrels per day respectively [4] Related Companies - Recommended companies include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and China National Petroleum Corporation (PetroChina) [4] - Companies to watch include Sinopec Oilfield Service Corporation and China Oilfield Services Limited [4]

Core Insights - The article highlights a significant increase in China's oil imports from Iran, raising concerns in the West about the effectiveness of U.S. sanctions [1][3][5] - The shift in trade dynamics indicates a potential long-term partnership between China and Iran, with implications for international relations and energy markets [7][11] Group 1: Oil Import Trends - In June, China imported an average of 1.8 million barrels of Iranian crude oil per day, a notable increase from May [1] - Another research firm reported a slightly lower daily average of 1.46 million barrels from June 1 to 27, but both figures indicate a substantial trend towards increased imports [3] - The rise in Iranian oil exports coincides with a peak in Iran's oil export volumes, marking a significant recovery in recent years [3] Group 2: Trade Mechanisms - Since July 2022, China has ceased direct imports of Iranian oil through official channels, instead utilizing third countries like Malaysia for indirect trade [3][5] - Many oil tankers had already set sail with Iranian oil in May, indicating a pre-planned strategy to circumvent sanctions [5] Group 3: Economic and Political Implications - The increase in oil exports is crucial for Iran, which needs funds for reconstruction and stabilization after recent conflicts [5] - Iran's political landscape is shifting, with conservative forces gaining influence and a clear stance against resuming negotiations with the U.S. in the short term [7] - The potential for China to resume direct oil imports from Iran could have significant political ramifications, challenging U.S. dominance in the Middle East [7][11] Group 4: Broader Cooperation - Beyond oil, China and Iran are enhancing cooperation in other sectors, particularly in infrastructure development [7] - The deepening energy partnership may undermine U.S. sanctions and encourage other sanctioned nations to follow suit [7][11] Group 5: Future Prospects - While the immediate likelihood of resuming direct energy trade between China and Iran is low, viable solutions for payment and trade could reopen avenues for cooperation [11] - China's current strategy of importing Iranian oil reflects a mutual benefit, enhancing trust between the two nations while also addressing energy security concerns [11]

Group 1: Military Actions - Israel Defense Forces reported a new round of missile attacks initiated by Iran, with air raid sirens sounding across the country, prompting residents to seek shelter [1] - Approximately 25 ballistic missiles were estimated to have been launched by Iran during this attack, with one missile hitting the northern city of Haifa, injuring two individuals, one of whom is in serious condition [4][5] - Iran claimed to have used around 30 missiles in this round of attacks, targeting Tel Aviv [6] Group 2: Diplomatic Developments - Iranian Foreign Minister began discussions with counterparts from Germany, France, and the UK regarding Iran's nuclear issues in Geneva, condemning Israel's attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities as violations of international law [8] - Iranian President emphasized that the only path to peace is the unconditional cessation of Israeli aggression, warning of stronger responses if Israel continues its actions [10][11] Group 3: Sanctions and Economic Measures - The U.S. Treasury Department announced new sanctions targeting one individual, eight entities, and a vessel for their involvement in procuring and transferring sensitive machinery for Iran's defense industry, aiming to curb Iran's missile and weapon capabilities [13]

Core Points - The U.S. Department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) announced sanctions against one individual, eight entities, and one vessel for allegedly procuring and transferring sensitive machinery for Iran's defense industry [1] - The sanctions are part of efforts to enforce a presidential memorandum aimed at preventing Iran from developing missile and other weapon capabilities [1] - OFAC also imposed sanctions on individuals and entities supporting the Iran-backed Houthi movement, marking the largest single action to date, targeting four individuals, twelve entities, and two vessels involved in importing oil and other illicit goods [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary has signed two additional sanctions against Iran, indicating a continued effort to apply maximum pressure on the country [1]